[Update: 22 more nations] Student pricing for YouTube ...

Note: I was technically supposed to post this earlier this week, but noticed that no one was signed up for today (plus I was super busy earlier), so I'm posting a bit late, under a throwaway account! Fair warning: I'm VERY verbose, so this will be long!
Section One: Assets and Debt
As I mentioned above, I make $56k per year as an administrator in higher education. My husband (K) just got a raise to making $155k per year. He works as a lawyer, has been in the workforce for about 12 years. I won't get into too many details but he works for a small boutique firm, not Biglaw. He also sometimes gets a yearly bonus of around $10k-20k but it's not guaranteed or anything like that. K and I have totally combined finances, so the below numbers are for both of us. I have a humanities PhD but I decided to leave academia and find an alt-ac job. My current position has good work-life balance (I never work past 5 pm), but pays terribly and my university is very badly run. I'm hoping to leave higher education all together in the future and am currently enrolled in a certificate program to try to make a career transition to instructional design.
The big elephant in the room is that my husband, K, makes a lot more money than me. When we first met, he was paying off massive amounts of student loans and making much less, and I was debt free with a lot of savings, so we both spent about the same amount. Now he makes 3x what I make and we are both debt-free, so the difference is much more noticeable. We do argue about money sometimes (more in the past), but the reality is that I have a humanities PhD and will likely never out earn him, and he knew that when I married him, lol. Because of all the labor I do around the house and in our lives to support him as he works a much more intense job, I was very clear that I believed we should split our finances equally as soon as we got married. We don't have separate accounts and we generally check in with one another whenever we are planning to spend more than $100. This system works for us for now.
I also want to address the question about parental or family support. Although I technically paid all of my own bills since I got my Bachelor's degree, my parents supported me a lot by paying for my flights home to visit at Christmas or in the summer as Xmas presents/birthday presents. My parents also paid for my undergraduate degree (and K's parents paid for his undergraduate degree as well). They also gave us about $15k to pay for our wedding.
Finally, my parents recently gave me $20k as an "early inheritance." They told me they plan to do this every year (depending on the stock market). We put this money into a brokerage. I don't consider my parents rich, as they both worked hourly jobs in health care my entire life (as a nurse and respiratory therapist - both with only associate's degrees). We never owned a new car, when we went on vacation we stayed in hostels , and shopped almost exclusively at Goodwill. But they scrimped and saved and now they have over $1 million in a retirement account. So I want to acknowledge my financial privilege in that I came from this kind of background. K's parents are similar.
Retirement Balance: $186k (combination of 401k, 403b, 457, 2 Roth IRAs, and taxable brokerage account).
Equity: None, we rent.
Savings account balance: Approximately $45k.
Checking account balance: Right now, around 8k.
Credit card debt: Right now, around $3k. But we pay it off each month with our checking account balance.
Student loan debt: $0. We finally paid off my husband’s law school loans (around $130k), last year. I didn’t have any student loans from undergrad (parents paid) and my MA & PhD were fully funded.
Section Two: Income
Income Progression: I’ve been working in my current field for 3 years. I started off making about $53k and got tiny 2% “merit increases” twice. Then in July my payroll title was changed, which triggered a required raise of about $2k. (I am dramatically underpaid).
Before my current position, I was in academia. I worked as a visiting assistant professor for one year at my alma mater (made $50k for 9 months of work) and before that I was a graduate student for 7 years. I was paid $18k-21k in stipends each year and my tuition & benefits were covered. Luckily, I lived in a very low cost of living area and this was enough for me to live on without going into debt. I got my PhD in 2017. Before I was a graduate student, I taught English in Japan for three years and made around $36k per year. In high school and college, I had random jobs that provided grocery/spending money, but I was lucky enough to have parents that paid my tuition and my rent in college.
I’m currently trying to make a career change (as you will see in my diary) and enrolled in a certificate program which runs from Autumn 2020 to Spring 2021 in order to help with that.
Main Job Monthly Take Home: $7,634. This probably seems low relative to our joint income, but we max out our 401k (K) and 403b (me). I work for the state government, which means I’m also eligible for something called a Deferred Compensation Plan (457b). This is basically the same as a 401k but you can withdraw contributions and gains from the account at any age without penalty (of course, you still have to pay taxes). I also max this out, and the limit is the same as a 401k/403b - $19.5k. Also this number is before K’s raise is accounted for. It won’t increase until his end of February paycheck.
Other deductions - I have health insurance taken out (about $80 a month for me, K’s firm covers his premiums) and taxes. WA has no state taxes, so it’s only federal taxes. I used to have to pay $50 / month for a bus pass (K's was free), but I don’t pay any longer because I’m working from home during COVID.
Final note - the sum I mentioned in the headline includes a variable bonus my husband gets. My base pay is $56k and his is $155k (as of February 1). This year he also got a bonus of $20k, which is set up a bit strangely. About $4k of this was structured as a 3% matching contribution to his 401k and the rest was taxable income. In small law firms, it’s unusual to get any 401k match so this was nice.
Side Gig Monthly Take Home: None.
Any Other Monthly Income Here: We get some interest from our savings account… like $25 a month.
Section Three: Expenses
Rent: Rent comes to approximately $2,050 total for a one-bedroom apartment. Rent itself is $1886, then we have pet rent ($25 per month), bicycle parking ($15 a month) and water / sewage / gas, which is usually $120-150 (variable cost).
Renters insurance: $157.76, paid annually. $13 a month.
Retirement contribution: In addition to the 401k, 403b, and 457, which all come out before taxes, we max out our Roth IRAs. That means $500 each per month per person (for a yearly total of $6k each). As I noted up top, we match out our 401k and 403b (19,500 each) and our 457. My employee also offers a 7.5% match. K's employee offers a 3% match but it is included in his yearly bonus so it's not guaranteed (confusing).
Savings contribution: We put $500 per month into our emergency fund. We also put about $860 a month into our “sinking fund,” which covers large and small annual or sporadic purchases such as vacations, gifts, Amazon Prime renewal, car insurance and renters insurance, etc.
Investment contribution: $875 per month into a taxable brokerage at Vanguard.
In total, we save about 47% of our gross income. We can do this because we keep our housing cost low relative to our high income, we don’t have any debt remaining, we don’t have any kids or parents who need financial support, and we’re very privileged in a lot of ways. We are hoping to FIRE within 10 years.
Debt payments: None.
Donations: We budget $100 per month for donations, which includes one-time donations as well as some reoccurring donations. My husband does pro bono work as well. I would like to increase this by quite a bit, but I still have a hard time budgeting for donations because I spent 7 years living on approximately $20k a year. To go from that to making more than 10x that amount within 3-4 years is obviously something that I am very privileged for, but it is still hard for me emotionally to comprehend at times.
Electric: ~$50-100 (billed every other month)
Wifi/Cable/Landline: An extortionate $87.12 for slow internet that only works for Zoom calls about half the time. Do I really live in one of the tech cities of the future?
Cellphone: $170 (This includes both service and paying off two new iPhones. We could have paid them off up front, but it was actually cheaper by like $50 to go on a payment plan.)
Subscriptions: BritBox ($7.70), Spotify ($16.50), HBOMax ($16.50), We Hate Movies Patreon (my favorite podcast - $8.81). My parents pay for Netflix and my sister pays for Hulu, and we all share.
Gym membership: None. K and I both run and do yoga with YouTube videos. Before the pandemic, we went to yoga classes pretty frequently in person. I’d like to do some online synchronous yoga classes but find it hard to make time.
Pet expenses: Varies, but I budget $50 per month and also include an emergency fund for my cat’s vet bills in our sinking fund. She’s 11 years old and probably asthmatic, so I know her vet bills are going to increase over time.
Car payment / insurance: We own our car outright. Insurance billed yearly is $2,097, about $174 per month.
Regular therapy: $0
Paid hobbies: Nothing regular, sporadic language classes and art supplies.
Other expenses: Right now I’m doing a certificate to hopefully help with a career change. The total cost for tuition is about $5k and we already saved it up (included in our 'sinking fund') basically through spending less during the pandemic. I’ve paid two quarters so far, and the last quarter (due in March) will be a bit more - about $2.3k.
__________
Day 1
Morning: I wake up at 5:30 am. Ever since the pandemic, my sleep schedule has been shot. At first, I was so happy not to have to leave the house at 7:15 for my 45 minute bus commute and I slept in a lot. But the stress (and maybe getting old?) has made me an early riser, no matter how much I try to sleep in. I do value my early mornings with just me, my cat, and my coffee, though.
I start work at 8 am and begin by triaging my emails. I have a bunch of deadlines this week, so it’s busier than usual. My job tends to be very seasonal, and sometimes I have a ton of work and sometimes I have none and can work on other longer-term projects. I have a piece of toast for breakfast and place a Whole Foods delivery order for the following day at 10:30 am. We made a meal plan and put everything in the cart the day before ($117.36, including tip).
Afternoon: I have my lunch break from noon to 1 pm. It doesn’t really matter when I take my lunch break, since I’m salaried, but the others in my office are hourly so in the before times we used to always close our office during the same time. I have a piece of leftover delivery pizza and some spinach risotto that I made a few days earlier. I also have half a brownie – the last one from a batch I made a few days ago (K gets the other half). He also has leftovers for lunch.
I should say at this point that both K and I are lucky enough to have been working almost entirely from home since early March. An area near Seattle was one of the first places to get hit by COVID-19, and my state and both of our employers have been taking it very seriously ever since. Working from home hasn’t always been easy since we live in a 600-square foot apartment. Also, there is a three-story townhouse being built directly next door to us and I can hear the pounding in my dreams at this point.
Around 2 pm, I go for a 2-mile run. I feel like some money diarists tend to toss off things like “oh, I went for an easy 7 mile run,” at the drop of a hat, so I want to be clear – running for 2 miles isn’t easy for me; it’s exhausting, annoying, sweaty, and generally gross. Also I am very slow. But it has kept me sane during quarantine.
Meanwhile, my husband goes to our local pet store to get an enzymatic cleaner (our cat peed in one of our suitcases… I think it’s probably a lost cause, but it was basically brand new, so worth a try) and special weight-loss cat food. Our cat is an 11-year-old rescue from the Humane Society and she is a chonky girl. We had to sign a waiver when we adopted her, saying that we understood that she was very overweight, lol. Our vet recommended a special diet food, rather than just restricting her intake as we have been doing, so we will give it a try ($78). My husband also stops buy our local wine store and picks up two bottles. We’ve been doing a dry January, so this will be our first drink for a while ($27.53).
I have a phone interview scheduled for 4 pm – just a preliminary interview with an internal recruiter. It’s the first ‘corporate’ job interview I’ve ever had, since I’ve been in academia my entire life. I’m trying to make a pivot into instructional design / training and development. I’m just excited to get an interview. It seems to go pretty well, but who knows. They tell me they will probably get back to me by the end of this week.
Evening: My husband whips up a random meal of fridge remnants – pesto pasta with sausage and a fridge salad with feta and bell peppers. It’s pretty tasty with a little Sauvignon Blanc. During dinner, we play a card game we call gin rummy, although it bears no resemblance to the actual game. After dinner, I make a chocolate cake with orange buttercream frosting and we watch Cobra Kai.
Daily total: $222.89
Day 2
Morning: Up early again, a piece of toast for breakfast (very exciting). We’re out of eggs until our Whole Foods order arrives. I’m working on creating some tedious but necessary spreadsheets this morning.
Noon: Our Whole Foods order arrives around noon. Excitement! They’ve given us a half-rotten bag of romaine lettuce and substituted pecans for hazelnuts. I should probably just double mask and go to Trader Joe’s myself (our regular spot, only a 5-minute walk from my apartment). I’m just getting anxious about these new variants.
I have leftover meatloaf and spinach risotto again for lunch. Lots of meetings and more organizing spreadsheets in the afternoon. Around 3 pm, I go for my daily ritual - a 20-minute walk around my neighborhood. It’s still raining slightly but I need to get out. Halfway through the walk, I get an email from my apartment manager telling me the apartment will no longer accept debit card payments, direct deposit, or credit card payments for paying rent. In other words, only checks or money orders (?!). Ugh. Our lease is up in 4 months and we will not be renewing our lease. Our last apartment manager was a gambling addict who may have been stealing people’s identities, but by God, he kept things working. Ever since they fired him, this place has been going downhill.
Evening: I check my bank statements to update my budget spreadsheet and realize that I have been billed the wrong amount of rent. They actually charged me less than they should have. I don’t trust my apartment manager not to start charging me a late fee or something for this, so I call them up. They are baffled by how to fix this, which you would think would be the one thing you would want to get right, if you’re renting out apartments.
K cooks dinner – steak with a Roquefort sauce and glazed brussels sprouts. It’s from a French cookbook we recently bought and it is delicious. I work on classwork for my certificate program while he cooks. After dinner, I do the dishes and buy the 13th season of RuPaul’s Drag Race. I watch the first episode – lots of shocking twists and turns! I’m planning to watch the rest of the episodes together with my younger sister, M ($22.01).
Daily total: $22.01
Day 3
Morning: K has an 8 am dentist appointment, so he takes off early. He already paid for the work last month, so there’s no charge. I have a piece of toast for breakfast and get to work checking my emails. It’s 8:20 am and the construction crew building a townhouse next door is blasting mariachi music. I’m glad someone is having fun. At least the sun is coming out.
Someone at work has made a critical error, but it wasn’t me, thank God. I was the one who found out about it, but it’s still going to cause a big old headache for me. I’m ready to be done with this job. K and I go for a run so that I can exhaust myself enough to no longer be furious about said careless error.
Noon: I have leftover spinach risotto and meatloaf again – exciting. I’m busy at work but frankly, not a lot going on other than that. Still no word about fixing my rent payments. I’m not really willing to pursue this any further at this point.
Evening: I start making chili (Turkey Chili from the NY Times) and cornbread (from my new cookbook, Jubilee). K is doing some work on our investments when he announces that, somehow, a transfer was scheduled from our checking account to our savings account of $55k (?!) We obviously don’t have $55k in our checking account, so we start frantically trying to figure out what’s going on. Numerous phone calls later, we still don’t know if that was a hack, if my husband somehow mistakenly scheduled the transfer himself, or if the bank messed it up. Either way, it doesn’t seem like any harm was done since the bank with our checking account just declined the transaction. But it seems really strange and worrisome. We get to work changing the passwords on all of our accounts, just in case it was some kind of hack.
After dinner (and chocolate cake), I have a Zoom happy hour with a local friend. We occasionally see each other outside but it’s nice to have a longer chat from the comfort of our living rooms. We both love murder mysteries, so we signed up for a service where a company sends us letters with clues and we try to solve the mystery together. It’s a fun way to stay connected and look forward to something during the pandemic. The service costs about $15 per month, but I paid for it in lump sum for 3 months, so it’s not included in my budget above. I drink some wine and we vent about work (we work at the same place) before getting started on the puzzle.
Daily total: $0
Day 4
Morning: I sleep in a bit, which is nice. Get up around 7 am. My parents are both getting their 2nd vaccine today – they’re both in their 70s and I am so relieved. I send my mom a “congratulations on being vaccinated!” text and we chat for a bit. I have leftover cornbread with honey and butter for breakfast – soooo good.
Work is not particularly exciting today, but someone sends me a last-minute request for something that does not need to be so urgent. I feel annoyed. Still no word from the interviewers on Monday, and I’m beginning to suspect I wasn’t selected to move forward. Too bad. K pays for a Wordpress website for the year (it’s a work-related website, but sadly his work doesn’t reimburse him). It costs $92.48.
Noon: The mariachi music is particularly loud today. I stand out on my balcony in the sun for a while and watch the workers. It’s been interesting seeing a house go up next door in real time, especially since I’m at home all the time. The workers are balancing on the top of the third story wall without, as far as I can see, anything like a safety line. It seems unsafe, but I presume they know what they’re doing.
We booked a cabin for the upcoming weekend in the Hood Canal region of Washington to do some hiking and birdwatching. I want to be as safe as possible and not go to any grocery stores or risk spreading COVID in any way while I’m there, so I place another grocery order with Whole Foods just for some special treats for the weekend. The cabin has a small kitchen and a grill, so we’re planning to make a fancy steak salad on Saturday. I order chips and hummus, some fancy cheese and meats, Tate’s cookies (I’ve heard a lot of good things about these), a baguette, and the ingredients for the steak salad. I also order a few staples I forgot in our last order, like sweet potatoes, more coffee, and half and half. It comes to $87.41, including tip, but that does include like $30 worth of steak. For some reason, I can’t order a small amount of steak online, so I’m planning to freeze half of it for later. (I include this purchase in our vacation fund budget, rather than under our regular grocery budget).
Around 2 pm, K makes a quick trip to our local wine store to buy an Oregon pinot noir and some port to enjoy at the cabin ($59.45). This store has an outdoor walk-up counter where you can tell the owner what you’re looking for, and he brings you some options (the store is way too small to allow customers to enter during Covid). It’s fun to chat with another human being, even briefly.
Evening: After work, we spend a little time rebalancing our investing and retirement accounts. We decide to put more money into bonds and a little bit into REIT’s as a hedge against a potential crash or recession in the future. Then I start making dinner – Broken Eggs (Huevas Rotas) from the NY Times cooking site. You basically cook the potatoes in a skillet in water, spices, and olive oil, and then sauté them to crisp them up once the water evaporates. Then you add onion, lots of garlic, and finally some eggs. It is delicious. I eat it with leftover cornbread while watching RuPaul’s Drag Race season 13 with my sister – we watch the first two episodes. It’s full of twists and turns. A note about this – we have an elaborate procedure for watching shows together developed during quarantine whereby we start the show at the same with an earbud in one ear, while FaceTiming. I also have chocolate cake, of course.
Later, I get an email that I’ve signed up for HBO on Amazon Prime. I definitely have not. I text my mom, who shares my account, and she tells me she signed up by mistake. I cancel right away and luckily they won’t charge us for it.
Meanwhile, K is doing an online Japanese language class over Zoom. He’s been interested in learning ever since we went to Japan last January. I lived in Japan for 3 years so I was able to take us around to a lot of more obscure places and he really enjoyed the trip – it was a blast.
K starts a YouTube yoga class (from Do Yoga With Me – my favorite channel) and I join him for part of it before bed around 10 pm.
Daily total: $239.34
Day 5
Morning: I get up around 7 am and we go for a run first thing. I prefer running early in the morning because there are fewer people to avoid during COVID. We do a different route today – it’s longer (3 miles) but has fewer hills. It’s a slog, as always, but I feel good when I get back right around 8 am. I jump straight onto my computer to start checking work emails and my husband makes us avocado and egg toast for breakfast - it is absolutely delicious.
We talk about how our bathroom smells distinctly mildewy (yay for being a grown-up because I guess this is what we talk about now) and we buy two big buckets of DampRid on Amazon ($26.60). I’ve found this to be a necessity in Seattle. Mid-morning, I take a break from work and start packing for our trip to the cabin.
Noon: I have leftover potatoes and cornbread for lunch, and my husband has the leftover chili. We finish getting ready to leave and head out right after lunch, taking a half day. The only problem is that I have attend a meeting at 3:30 pm, so we head out hoping to get there in time. Our cabin is near Quilcene in the Hood Canal region of Washington, about a 2 hour drive or a 2 hour ferry ride + drive. We are initially planning to take the ferry both ways, but realize that we mistimed the ferry departure, so we drive the whole way instead. Luckily, there’s little traffic mid-day, and we arrive at our Airbnb around 3:00 pm.
The Airbnb is beautiful! It’s a small cabin handmade by the owner, whose house is next door. It’s very rural, with a beautiful view. It’s tiny, but has a little kitchen and a waterfall-style shower with river rocks on the floor. It’s a great place to get away for a short time. Luckily, it also has good reception and I’m able to sit in on my meeting with no problems. My husband also does a little work, and then at 5 pm we’re free!
In our planning, we decided to get takeout on Friday night, since the little kitchen isn’t designed for any serious cooking. We call ahead to a local restaurant to order burgers (one of only 2 restaurants in the whole town). It’s around 5:30 pm and the place is deserted. It’s a microbrewery, but they tell us they haven’t been making beer since COVID-19 hit. None of the workers are wearing masks when I walk in, but they put them on when they see I’m wearing one. I pick up our order - a few bottled beers and burgers and fries ($49.52 including tip).
Back at our Airbnb, we watch Big Trouble in Little China and enjoy our very messy, but delicious, burgers (it costs $4.39 to rent). The movie is very campy but fun. I love silly action movies, as you will see with my other viewing choices. We wrap up the night in a very exciting fashion, eating chocolate cake and watching old episodes of the original Star Trek.
Daily total: $80.51
Day 6
Morning & noon: When we wake up around 8 am, the weather is looking thankfully clear and even sunny! We were expecting rain, so we’re really glad. We decide to go hiking today, and we head out before even having breakfast, with snacks and lunches packed. Our first destination is a hike called Mt. Zion, but unfortunately, we run into enough snow 2 miles before the trailhead that we decide to turn back. We don’t have any traction for our Subaru and don’t want to risk getting stuck on a very narrow mountain road. Instead, we drive another hour or so to the Lena Lake trailhead, a very popular and less strenuous trail. It’s about 7.5 miles roundtrip with 1200 feet of elevation gain.
By this time, it’s around 11:30, but luckily there is still parking. It’s a great hike up, and we run into relatively few people. We always mask up whenever we pass anyone, as does about 50% of the people we meet. The others… not so much. Around a mile from the lake, we start to run into snow. It’s turned into a beautiful sunny day, and I’m loving seeing all this snow! It’s a bit slippery, but not too bad. We make it to the lake mid-day, and it’s super jammed – there’s only a small viewpoint accessible, so everyone is crowded in there. I feel a bit uneasy with all the unmasked people, but we manage to find a spot away from the crowd and sit down to eat our lunch of apples, chips, and energy bars. There are a ton of robber jays there (Canada Jays) which try to eat our chips. It is fun watching them, but I’m annoyed to see some kids feeding them – it’ll just make them that much more aggressive. Bad trail manners.
On our way back down, we get stuck behind a group of 5 unmasked adults, who refuse to cede the narrow trail to faster hikers. I’m a slow hiker myself, so, to be clear, I’m not angry at slower walkers being on the trail but have some self-awareness and let people pass! especially if you’re going to go hiking in a big group during a pandemic! We finally get back down and head back to our Airbnb.
Evening: Back home, we explore some of the trails our Airbnb host has set up around his extensive property, and then relax on the deck. The sun is breaking through the clouds and it feels wonderful to sit out in nature and feel the sun on my back. We open up a bottle of wine and have a few pre-dinner snacks (more chips and hummus). For this night, we brought ingredients to make a steak salad. Our Airbnb host has kindly set up a charcoal grill for us, so we grilled the steak and toast some bread on the side.
We eat dinner while watching the truly terrible Jean Claude Van Damme movie Bloodsport and finish up the very last of my chocolate cake. It’s amazing that anyone ever let Van Damme act… or should I say ‘act.’ I also have a Tate’s chocolate chip cookie or two, accompanied by a little port. My husband and I are truly very old people at heart, so we finish up the night watching a few episodes of Columbo.
Daily total: $0
Day 7
Morning: Unfortunately, K had insomnia last night, so he sleeps in pretty late. I drink coffee in bed and enjoy looking at the view out our big windows. Once he’s up, we get packed up and write a thank you note for our host. It was a great stay.
One of my big hobbies is birding and K enjoys wildlife photography, so we go out to look for some lifers! (The first time you see a new species of bird). Did I mention we are very old people in (relatively) young bodies? We first go to Dosewallips State Park and see some bald eagles, great blue herons, lots of various ducks, and a flock of Canada Geese, which, strangely, includes a domesticated gray goose. He’s much larger than the Canada Geese and seems to be watching over them. It’s kind of cute. Unfortunately, a lot of the birds are too far from shore to be seen clearly.
Our next stop is Point No Point (I love all the sad & disappointed names that early Westerner explorers gave places in the Washington/Oregon coast), a popular birding spot. We see a ton of birds here, and I can understand why it’s so well-known - Red-Breasted Mergansers, Western Grebes, Common Goldeneyes, Pacific Loons, and a few others I can’t identify yet. Most excitingly though, we see a whole pile of otters! They’re lounging around together on a rock just offshore and a ton of people are watching. We watch as they all slip off the rock and go hunting in the shore. It’s my first otter sighting in the wild, and it’s so cool! We also see some seals and possibly a sea lion. It’s a great spot for wildlife. We eat some snacks (hummus, chips, some sliced meat & cheese) before we head out.
I really want to come back to this area another time and explore further, but K has decided that we need to get back home in time for the Big Game. We take the 3:00 pm ferry back to Seattle ($16.40) and get home around 3:45 pm. I veg out at home while my husband watches football. He’s a Patriots fan but he still loves Tom Brady (??) so he’s happy to see Florida win. I don’t understand sports team loyalties at all, but whatever, I’m glad he’s happy. We order from a new Indian place called Spice Box and get vindaloo, roganjosh, and vegetables pakora – so tasty ($53.96). Happily, there’s enough left over for lunch the next day, since I have no plans for what we will eat yet!
I’m really dreading work the next day, as I know that it will be obnoxious. I want to get out of my job so badly, but it doesn’t look like I’m going on to the next interview stage for the job I interviewed no back on Monday. I’m feeling kind of down about it. I try to stay positive and promise that I’ll apply for at least 2-3 new jobs next week. I bake up some frozen cookie dough I had in the freezer and feel sorry for myself. We end the night by watching another episode of Columbo.
Daily total: 70.36
Food + Drink: $395.23
Fun / Entertainment: $26.40
Home + Health: $26.60
Clothes + Beauty: $0
Transport: $16.40
Other: $170.48
Grand Total: $635.11
I think this week was pretty normal for us. Obviously we spent a bit more than usual due to the weekend cabin trip, but nothing outrageous. Our largest consumer spending category is definitely food and drink – we live in a very busy area of Seattle with tons of restaurants and bars so believe it or not, we actually used to spend even more on eating out. We still try to support our local places by getting takeout or delivery during the pandemic and even occasionally getting a few drinks outside. I spent more than usual on groceries due to stocking up for the weekend away.

Alright. Hear me out autists. We all know bears are gay. But with TSLA shares reaching an ATH of $816.99, it sure seems like its fundamentals are completely divorced from reality. And the media analysts have been pounding on TSLA for seemingly years now. So is this a good company to be a gay bear on? Or Nah? (edit: TSLA ATH now @ $884 lol)
 
On 7 Jan 2020, Royal Bank of Canada admitted that "There is no graceful way to put this other than to say we got TSLA's stock completely wrong" and upgraded TSLA from $339 to $700. And on 6 Jan 2020, Morgan Stanley upgraded their TSLA price target to $810 when just 18 months ago they announced their comically low price target of $10 (that's $2 post split) resulting in a massive rally. Did Morgan Stanley dive head first into WSB level 3 autism territory, or is there something that the uninitiated could be missing? Let's do a deep dive into Tesla the company and see if their stock really is in a bubble, or if there could be some substance behind the current insane rally.
 
 
The common FUD narrative among TSLAQ is that TSLA's $800+ billion market cap is now larger than the 10 largest auto manufacturers combined. (edit: Apparantly this is a common FUD talking point that is/was false. TSLA is/was nowhere near that level when it was touted around as so. Although it is undeniable that Tesla's market cap became more and more absurd throughout 2020)
 
Indeed, this is quite insane. Even without us autists doing complex calculations, a simple google search shows that they would have to sell around 65 million vehicles a year to be priced at that level. So how many vehicles did Tesla produce? Tesla announced on 2 January 2020 that they've sold a little shy of 500K vehicles for CY 2020 with plans to increase production by 50% YoY. This would ultimately bring them to 20 million vehicles produced by 2030.
 
20 mil by 2030. Although we all know the term "Elon Time", which refers to CEO Elon Musk casually announcing an estimate of a product and missing projected timelines by large margins, there seems to be some credibility to this statement. Back in 2014, Elon Musk gave an interview (2:28) where he stated "I feel comfortable that we'll be able to achieve at least half a million cars a year by 2020".
 
OK. So let's give him the benefit of the doubt. As a matter of fact, Tesla is actually building factories at breakneck speeds with construction literally running 24/7 and each of their large factories (Austin and Berlin) is said to be capable of producing up to 2 million vehicles a year. Giga Berlin which was an empty field 9 months ago is already close to finishing its outer construction layer. Obviously they plan to announce more factory constructions in the future as well. So they do seem to be on track to grow on average 50% YoY for now. But 20 million cars produced by 2030 is still massively shy of 65 million vehicles. Even with growth factored in, TSLA's stock valuation still seems insanely high. So what gives? The common explanation among the Tesla fanboys is that TSLA is a tech company, not an automotive company, so it should be valued just so.
 
So what is this mystical technology the fanboys speak of, and how is it being deployed in terms of profitability for Tesla? Well, it turns out that Tesla has three main technological advantages and two main revenue streams that might put them leaps and bounds ahead of competitors.
 

1. Autonomous Driving - Tesla is the current market leader in vehicle autonomy. It has over 3 billion miles logged as of April 2020. The next industry leader Waymo (owned by google) has approximately 20 million miles logged. One thing for sure is that no company will be able to catch Tesla in terms of pure data advantage within the next 4-5 years. And when it comes to Artificial Intelligence, data is king. This could be the bread and butter of Tesla. Tesla already charges customers $10k per vehicle to enable full self driving in which 25% of their customers choose the option. However, Tesla hasn't taken full profits on their books yet due to it still being in beta mode. Once they solve autonomy, an over-the-air (OTA) software update will be sent out just like how your iPhone updates and bam! now you have a self driving vehicle. Let's say Tesla charges $2k a year for a self driving vehicle that can also function as an autonomous uber driver which will help you pay down your vehicle or self driving subscription service. That's like selling two iPhone pros per every customer every year. And customers on their robotaxi network will also have to share 20% profits with Tesla. Think about this. The highest cost of ride hailing are for hourly wages. If no human is required to drive that vehicle, the cost of the ride hailing service will become insanely cheap. So cheap to the point that many people who live in cities will feel like they no longer need to own a vehicle and just call a robo taxi. People already do this in large cities! As this process accelerates, vehicles that don't have autonomy solved will lose market share dramatically every year. People who want cars will mainly want to buy a vehicle with an autonomous option, and people who don't care about owning a car will use robo taxis. If Tesla solves autonomy 4-5 years ahead of competitors, the entire auto industry will be disrupted by Tesla just like how the iPhone ended Blackberry and Nokia's dominance.
   
2. Vehicle Manufacturing - Tesla is an innovator when it comes to vehicle manufacturing technology, specifically robotics. Along with their insane factory automation process, they also have giga casters that mold car pieces quickly and efficiently that no other manufacturers have, and giant automated paint shops. This cuts down massively on labor and allows for quicker production while keeping margins high. Due to innovative technologies like these, it is estimated that Tesla's Shanghai Model 3 vehicles net around 30% profit margins, even after they've recently slashed their prices by 8%. Tesla recently slashed their Model Y price by 30% but still boast an astonishing 29% profit margin which is approximately 3 times the industry average. So even if robotaxi doesn't work out, they are still an industry leader by a large stretch in terms of profit margins. These margins will only increase after Giga Berlin is operational due to no longer having to ship vehicles across the Pacific to European customers.
   
3. Vertical Integration - Tesla is well known for its vertical integration. This is mainly due to having supply chain issues in the early days, but what this has enabled is agile production capability and larger profit margins. Due to this capability, Tesla improves components of their vehicles on the fly instead of the annual model release the traditional industry uses. Also, they don't have to share profits with suppliers or worry about constraints, delivery delays, or slow progress on contracts.
   
4. No Advertising & Dealerships - Elon Musk is a walking billboard. The media literally gives Tesla free advertisement every day. As production increases, Tesla might have to start advertising in the future. But for now it seems like Teslas are selling themselves. Tesla has literally sold 100% of the vehicles they've ever produced, and they have never advertised any of their vehicles. Also, they do not have to share profits with dealerships with direct-to-consumer sales. If their market dominance and technology superiority continues, it is bound to stay the industry leader just like apple did with its iPhones. And if they solve autonomy first which they seem on track to do so, what's more to say?
   
5. Regulatory Credits AKA Carbon Credits - This is one that TSLAQs love to bring up when it comes to Tesla profits. You see, a handful of US States enacted a law that requires manufacturers to sell a certain percentage of Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) in their state which will earn them ZEV credits. If not, they will either have to pay a massive penalty fine, or buy ZEV credits from vehicle manufacturers who have plenty to spare. And Tesla has an overflow of ZEV credits laying around. So Tesla is literally getting paid by other vehicle manufacturers to build their vehicles. TSLAQs (incorrectly) state that the only reason Tesla makes a profit is because of regulatory credits. However, Tesla's ZEV credits only make up around 5% of their revenue (page 4, row 3) and it is slowly falling. No serious vehicle manufacturer will likely produce ICE vehicles in the year 2030 so ZEV credits fazing out is to be expected. Tesla vehicles are massively profitable as mentioned in bullet #2 even without the ZEV credits.
   

 
So we went over the main revenue streams of Tesla. And if all works out well, it seems likely that Tesla has a good chance of 'winning' if they maintain their market leadership. However, the competition is coming, right? We have our favorite EV players such as Nio, XPeng, Li, Rivian, BYD etc. Also the traditional ICE manufacturers VolksWagen has their ID.4, Ford has thier Mustang Mach-E, Audi has thier etron, Porche has their Tycan, and GM has the Chevy Bolt and 30 EVs planned for the future. It seems inevitable that these industry giants with their massive resources will overtake Tesla. Or will they?
 
 

Why the Competition is NOT Coming (Tesla's Moats):

 

1. Difficulties of creating an EV vs. Mass Production: Creating a shell of an EV or a prototype is extremely easy. If anything, Nikola has showed this to be true. Rivian seems to be having the same issue Tesla had when starting up where they had to constantly push back release dates due to how difficult it is to engineer and manufacture an EV. So designing a prototype is easy. Manufacturing an EV is another thing. But mass production is a whole different beast. It took Tesla well over 16 years to perfect their technology and mass produce their model 3 despite having the best engineers in the world working for them. Ever wonder why every single vehicle manufacturer has constantly been pushing back their EV production timelines? It's because EVs are difficult. Also to note is that no vehicle manufacturer other than Tesla has been able to achieve mass production in EVs. And until then, Tesla has no competition in the near horizon.
   
2. Supercharger network: Tesla has the largest charging network in the world by orders of magnitude and they will continue to grow. VW is a low trailing second in the market due to penalties in their dieselgate scandel and as a lucky maneuver, decided to build their electrify-america charging network. BTW, due to sunk costs, VW will likely be the only traditional ICE manufacturer that stands a chance of survival in the long run. Tesla owners barely get range anxiety like they used to back in the day. This is because it is easy to find a charging station even if they are going on a long trip with their map integration. However, you cannot say the same for the other EVs.
   
3. Lidar vs. Camera: Tesla's vehicles notoriously does not use lidar technology. Instead, they almost only rely on vision (cameras). There are three main reasons for this. (I.) Cameras are extremely cheap. Lidar is not. One of Waymo's vehicles are estimated to have cost over $250k back in a 2017 estimate. Although in recent years Waymo seems to have developed lidar hardware that costs 90% less at $7.5k, it is still ridiculously expensive compared to cameras without adding much value. Here is Elon Musk's explanation, massively paraphrased: "Cameras augmented with AI can do almost all the things that lidar does chiefly depth sensing. Human vision does not require a separate depth sensor, and the entire driving infrastructure is built with human vision in mind. Lidar is a fools errand." Instead, Tesla augments its self driving technology with radar and maps. (II.) Lidar technology is usually augmented with something called HD maps. This is extreme detailed mapping (to the centimeter level) that helps lidar depth sensors with navigation. However, the issue with HD maps is that the file sizes are obviously large. And when detailed maps need to be updated due to construction or whatever which happens everywhere, every day, an OTA update needs to be sent out. And how do you update a fleet of all your vehicles when nationwide full coverage of 5G isn't a thing? So vehicles like Waymos are extremely good at driving within their geo-fenced locations, until they leave the area. And then they are absolute crap at it. OTOH, vision-based self driving vehicles are initially bad at the task until they have sufficient data and then they can drive well in almost every situation even without it being connected to the network. (III.) Vision-focused self driving AI can be augmented with additional sensors such as radalidar afterwards, but the inverse does not work. To put it short, if your lidar sensors disagree on the information they see at the moment, its entire system cannot function.
   
4. Technological Dominance: Tesla's vertical integration and engineering produced innovative solutions such as the octovalve, heat pump, leadership in battery and vehicle efficiency, custom designed AI chips and an AI supercomputer server (Tesla Dojo) specifically made for autonomous driving advancement. No other company can come close to what Tesla is currently doing.
   
5. Misdirected Competition: Remember how we talked about ZEV credits? Well most ICE vehicle manufacturers only sell their vehicles in ZEV mandated states and nowhere else. They literally lose money when they sell their vehicles, or have to massively hike up their prices to make a profit even with tax credits, unlike Teslas. For this reason, they only make enough vehicles to make up for their ZEV credits. Naturally, one can assume the limits of effort gone into such vehicles. Now, let's talk about the EV start ups. I've already mentioned the massive growing pains they will have to reach mass production. However, the Chinese EV startups have one thing to their advantage - massive 5G infrastructure within China which will undoubtedly benefit automation, especially in the case of HD maps. However, this doesn't apply outside of China. To add to this, they do not produce in-house custom AI chipsets which is a massive hinderance in processing data. Tesla did this with Nvidia for a while and ultimately decided that they had to design their own chips because of the lackluster performance.
   
6. OTA Software Updates - A minor point, but Tesla has been designing their own software for years now. Well known to the public, Teslas update very frequently and with each update gets slightly better UI and performance. Yes - a software update allows Teslas to get better efficiency out of their vehicles. One can argue that any auto manufacturer can implement OTA software updates, but Tesla is leagues ahead at the moment with top notch software developers.
   
7. Talent Pool: Guess what the #1 company engineers want to work for is? That's right. Tesla. #2 is SpaceX. Try all they want, but the best engineers aren't going to want to work with Ford or GM.
   
8. "The Competition": I already mentioned the half-assedness of traditional ICE vehicle manufacturers but I wanted to bring up another point. One thing that traditional ICE manufacturers have weighing them down are their employees. Their ICE engineers don't translate well into a totally different EV drivetrain. There are sunk costs (equipment etc) that deal with ICE manufacturing processes. Also, Ford, GM, and VW all have unions, pension funds, and stockholders. What do you think their reaction will be when they decide to ditch the currently-profitable-but-soon-to-be-shrinking ICE vehicle component and transition into resource intensive EVs? That's right. They won't like it. The only solution is to half-ass it and slowly transition into EVs while trying to keep afloat their ICE vehicle component. With massive product line diversification and lack of focus, this is not going to be an easy transition. VW CEO Herbert Diess famously stated that "My goal for the future is clear: leading the Group into a sustainable and successful future. The global transformation in the industry will take roughly ten years, with or without Volkswagen." and tried to convince board members basically stating that VW will need to transition into EVs within 10 years or go bankrupt. Ultimately, Diess wasn't successful in achieving full cooperation of the board and had to compromise in his goals to a more gradual transition. The competition is NOT coming. Oh, and as for Waymo and Uber? Well Uber recently sold off their self-driving startup, and Waymo sunk a jaw dropping $3.5 billion for their operation. LOL. They are paying drivers to monitor their expensive "autonomous vehicles" while Tesla gets this done while making a profit. As of 2020, Waymo still only has 600 vehicles and has never left the bounds of Pheonix, AZ.
   

 
OK. So I'm sure I've missed some points but I think this paints a decent picture on why Tesla is considered the one and only market leader at the moment. Now let's go into...
 
 

Tesla's Disruptive Potentials:

 

1. The $25,000 EV: In Tesla's battery day announcement, Tesla projected that their battery technology will enable them to build a $25k vehicle in the future. According to projections using Wright's law, this seems to be plausible. Most think this will happen around 2023-4. Think of the disruption this will bring. EVs are well known for having lower maintenance cost vs. ICE vehicles due to not having as many moving parts. The true cost of ownership for a $25k vehicle will be vastly superior to a $20k ICE vehicle. Once this happens, ICE vehicle demand will fall through the roof. The only ICE vehicles being sold at high volume will be used vehicles. What happens to the traditional ICE manufacturers then? Tesla vehicles are already perceived to hold their value much better than other brands because of the overall feature it comes with.
   
2. Tesla Auto Insurance: Tesla collects massive amounts of data. They can easily profile their customers' driving patterns, check if they have self driving enabled, the route they drive etc. Currently Tesla vehicles are insured at a much higher premium vs. economic ICE vehicles. Once Tesla goes fully into the insurance business, traditional insurance companies will not be able to compete with them on price or margins. This is because the insurance business is based upon data on the customer and projections.
   
3. Solar City - Tesla's other business deals with solar panels, Tesla power walls, and their Autobidder software which sells the electricity that you generated back to the grid. Tesla currently offers the lowest solar panel price in the U.S. and moreover, takes 20% of the revenue generated from their autobidder software. Renewable energy is poised to grow. More than 50% annually is the current projection. And Tesla seems to be one of the industry leaders in this market as well.
   

 
 

Risks:

1. Failing autonomous driving: definitely a major risk as the current stock price is largely betting on this single technology to materialize. However, their current progress and the rate of improvement after rewriting their autopilot code seems promising.
   
2. Failing mass battery production (battery supply issues): Although Tesla is the largest producer of batteries in the world, they will need to produce more if they want to keep up with the current pace of expansion. This will be a major bottleneck for Tesla if they cannot solve this issue. As a solution, Tesla has reduced their reliance on copper and are said to be producing batteries with little to no copper. We shall see how this pans out.
   
3. Tesla is infamous for its poor Quality Control on their vehicles and slow/poor Customer Service. We shall see if time solves this issue.
   
4. Lack of Tax Incentives: Tesla's vehicles no longer provide Federal tax incentives to U.S. customers. However, they seem to be doing fine with over 80% EV marketshare in the U.S. alone. They're stealing market share from BMW, VW, Acura... you name it.
   
5. Elon Musk Death: Elon Musk has been able to achieve amazing engineering feats. If he dies, I'm sure a lot of the company's potential will go with it.
   

 
 

Alternative Battery Technology:

 

1. Solid State Battery - Quantumscape which is currently the leader in this sector has plans to enter mass production by 2024. We shall see if their battery technology turns out to be as efficient as Tesla's. If QS's SS batteries turn out to be superior to Tesla's, they might have to start purchasing from them.
   
2. Hydrogen Fuel Cell (HFC) Battery - Likely not a good use for vehicles. Very low efficiency and wasteful vs lithium-ion batteries. Currently no infrastructure for HFC in place. Might be useful for freight shipping. Elon Musk famously stated that HFC's are "Fool Cells"
   

 
 

Tesla Future Products Lines:

1. Cybertruck: Insane profit margins, amazing performance. estimated production end of 2021 or 2022
   
2. Semi Truck: estimated production 2022 or later
   
3. Model S Refresh: Insane specs. Likely release is 2021
   
4. 2020 Roadster: Insane specs but surprise! The "2020 Roadster" renewal never happened and most are projecting 2022 or later
   
5. $25k EV: 'nuff said
   

 

TSLA Analysis:

 
TSLA Institutional Ownership: 62.85%
TSLA Insider Ownership: 5.21%
TSLA Fanboy Ownership: estimated 5%+
So there is a stable 70%+ of ownership that will not/cannot sell this stock, unlike PLTR which has only 12% institutional ownership and 63% insider ownership. This is the reason why I think the stock won't drop tremendously even when it tanks. There are plenty of people who are willing to snatch up more shares at a discount.
 
 
Why did TSLA shoot up so quickly in 2020: This is my personal opinion, but TSLA fans are known for doing deep research into the company. In the early days this was in forums such as the Tesla Motors Club where they shared their own research on revenue, projections, and potentials. Now we have YouTube and information dissemination has gotten easier. Interest in investing has skyrocketed in 2020. Stock market trading GLOBALLY has gotten easier via smartphone with apps such as Robinhood and the prosperity of the American stock market has no doubt attracted global retail investors. For years, Tesla's stock has been pushed down by FUD analysts. Paid by big oil and traditional ICE manufacturers? Or really that dumb not to do any DD and spread completely false information on a company that you are massively shorting. We might never find out. Retailers have caught onto Tesla's potential ahead of analysts this time. And as in Morgan Stanley and RBC's case, analysts have just been catching up on the future potential of Tesla to not make a further fool of themselves.
 
 
Future scenarios and Personal Opinion: Currently, Tesla holds over 18% of the global EV marketshare. As more EV players come into space, it might seem like Tesla is in danger of losing marketshare. Not everyone wants a Tesla and that is understandable. But as the overall pie is growing, Tesla, with their 50% YoY production increase plans (which is exponential growth), will likely remain a market leader sustaining their current 18% market share even in 2030 just like how the iPhone did. This is, of course, if they can keep up their growth.
 
Even if TSLA fails to develop their robo-taxi network technology, their full self driving subscription seems highly likely to materialize at the current pace albeit a lower revenue model.
 
Ultimately, do I think the current stock price is a bubble? Fuck yes I do, maybe by up to 20%. I'm not buying any more TSLA shares anywhere near this price. My FOMO was back when the stock price was $415 after doing my DD and this was with the intention to buy more shares even if the stock bottomed out. Well, it never bottomed because the S&P inclusion was announced shortly after I purchased it.
 
But if you ask my personal opinion, you gotta be a "buy high sell low" type top level autist if you're looking for short term gains and purchasing at this level. I'm looking at long term, slow moving, dead ass boring, Bitcoin HODLing, Warren Buffet style "time in market beats timing the market" boomer gains here. My next purchase will be whenever the stock price, if ever, bottoms out. However, just because I think TSLA is overpriced doesn't mean that I'm shorting this stock either.
 
Amazon was notoriously non-profitable or barely profitable until 2015 because they were reinvesting their profits into expansion. That is what Tesla is doing right now. Remember all the analysts who continuously warned investors for over a decade to stay away from AMZN because they are unprofitable? Well, I don't see any sane analysts parroting that narrative anymore. And then its stock price shot to the moon after they enabled profit mode. It's stock price nearly doubled due to the pandemic and I'm still not planning on shorting this stock even though the pandemic will likely go away in less than a year.
 
I don't know how TSLA will do in the short term. Nonetheless, I do believe that Tesla has the best chance among any auto maker out there to reach a $2-10+ trillion valuation within 10 years. So I'm just going to lean back and enjoy the show.
 
 
TL;DR: Tesla HAS NO COMPETITION. This is as if android wasn't developed until 4 years after the iPhone was released. Do NOT short or buy puts on TSLA. Although the current run seems absolutely insane, there is some substance to hold it up and possibly keep shooting up higher
 
 
Positions: TSLA shares @ $415 and a bunch more with an average price of $518. No calls because my wife's boyfriend did not permit.
 
 

Back of the Napkin Calculations

Warning: These are literally back of the napkin, pure crack fantasy calculations based on four factors:

1. Tesla will be able to increase production by 50% YoY until 2030 without fall in demand or issues scaling. As a side note, Toyota sells 10.5 million vehicles in a year so only time will tell if Tesla is able to sell 20 million vehicles a year.
   
2. ZEV credits will gradually diminish due to manufacturers switching to EVs.
   
3. Tesla will solve level 3 autonomy by 2022 and will charge customers $1k/yr. Tesla will have level 5 autonomy by 2026 and launch its robotaxi network by 2027 which it will then charge customers $2k/yr.
   
4. The robotaxi revenue is from the 20% profit sharing Tesla plans to do, but as far as the numbers go, I straight up pulled it out of my ass while referencing Uber's revenue and fudging numbers.
   

 

Year	Vehicles Produced	Vehicle Sales Revenue	ZEV Credits	Full Self Driving Revenue	Robotaxi Revenue	Total Revenue (Vehicle Related)	Notes
2019	367k	20.2 B	0.6 B	0.36 B (est)		21.6 B (est)	FSD early access (cost $8k, 1 time fee)
2020	500k	23.9 B (est)	1.5 B (est)	0.6 B (est)		26 B (est)	FSD early access (cost $10k, 1 time fee)
2021	750k	35.8 B	1.3 B	0.9 B (est)		38 B (est)	FSD at Level 2.5
2022	1.1 mil	53.7 B	1 B	1 B+		55.7 B	FSD at Level 3 (FSD subscription service - lower pricing model @ $1k/y)
2023	1.7 mil	80.6 B	0.7 B	2.7 B+		84 B
2024	2.5 mil	120 B	0.4 B	5.2 B+		125.6 B	FSD at Level 4
2025	3.8 mil	181 B	0.1 B	9 B+		190.1 B
2026	5.7 mil	272 B	-	13.7 B+		285.7 B	FSD at Level 5
2027	8.5 mil	408 B	-	30 B+	1 B	439 B	Robotaxi Launch (FSD subscription service @ 2k/y)
2028	12.8 mil	612 B	-	55 B+	5 B	672 B
2029	19 mil	918 B	-	93 B+	13 B	1 T
2030	20 mil	1 T	-	130 B+	20 B+	1.1 T

 
As you can see, I omitted R&D expenses, operating expenses etc., and haven't even attempted to calculate their net profit or factor in that Tesla's revenue might drop due to introducing cheaper variants. But this back of the napkin, crack infused revenue model shows that Tesla's potential can be gigantic. This is even without its other businesses like Solar City or Tesla insurance etc. Please... don't reference this anywhere because it is dumb math and I likely made some huge errors lol.
 
 
See also:

• ARK Invest's TSLA 2024 Price Target of $7,000 ($1500 post split) written back in Jan 2020.
  
• Ark Invest was widely mocked when they stated that their 2022 price target was $700-$4,000 ($140-$800 post split) back in 2018 after Elon Musk sent out his now infamous "funding secured" tweet. Tesla's stock was around $60 ($300 pre split) at the time.
  

I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. I had a message to share it on here too, so here it is!
--
This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios.
I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements.
Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock.
Overview

• High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:

1. Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
2. Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
3. Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more

• Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
• Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post

Investment Merits
Very strong market growth:

• Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
• Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
• Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
• New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:

1. The US federal legalization debate is on the table
2. Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.

• Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
• Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’

Regulation

• High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
• Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
• Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
• Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
• Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening

Demand

• There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
• For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy

Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis

• Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
• Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
• This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation

Data

• Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
• Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
• I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this

Forecasts financials & analysts

• Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
• Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
• Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management

​
https://preview.redd.it/9ft3iuw6zmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=44f5a24a035466bac6e9e72c70eb1edcadf5091d
Valuation

• Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
• Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive

https://preview.redd.it/83j8aqdkzmg61.png?width=342&format=png&auto=webp&s=f06ec34f6de10eeae049710dd59c494f6ef697c9

• Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
• Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
• The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis

​
https://preview.redd.it/1z2ap11mzmg61.png?width=406&format=png&auto=webp&s=775ddc0c9d7e99412dbb4eb1fbbf8ed4645bc235
NB – assumed the following:

1. Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
2. The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
3. Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
4. The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones

Investment Risks & Mitigants / Outstanding DD points
Exposure to changing regulation

• US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
• Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
• Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier

Dilution

• No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
• Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price

​
https://preview.redd.it/n8dzmapozmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=12e0e8bbd93f0c5c17920e7a5c5fad2559cc8bf0
Potentially misleading cost basis information

• A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
• As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
• Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess

Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses

• Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
• No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
• Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
• So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more

If you want to check out the video, it would be appreciated: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw

Hi there,
I live in ON, Canada and I'm a student looking to buy a used manual car, that will last me 3-5 years. I have been working at my minimum wage job for 2 years now and I have saved around 8k-9k CAD for my first car.
My main criteria is something that is reliable that doesn't break down but also is "fun". I'm also under 25 so insurance can't be too expensive So a used BMW is out of the question. This is also why I want a manual as it makes the experience more enjoyable for cheap.
I was considering a Honda Civic Si (9th or 8th gen) but I'm not really sure if I should buy these cars, as I assume most owners have abused these cars, with mods making it unreliable. (Any advice on this would be very helpful)
I also thought about buying a used (2009-2014) Honda civic EX, which has the less powerful 1.8 L engine, but also could still be fun to me (maybe?). I'm more confident that I can find a well taken version of this car used but I'm just not sure if it will be enjoyable to drive.
A manual Toyota corolla XRS seemed interesting as well. It seems only the 2005-2006 models were with the better engine, but the problem is I can't find anyone selling these used.
Some other notes: I plan to buy my vehicle privately to save money. Later down the line, I'm looking to add some small practical mods to the car, such as better tires, Improved suspension, slightly lowered. NOT looking to be obnoxious with an exhaust or anything like that. Additionally, I will be doing most of the maintenance myself.
PS: My standards of "fun" is pretty low as previously I drove a (2006 Honda odyssey touring) which was kinda fun to rip around in. not me
Also, I don't need urgently need a car until September, so I could save another 2-3k CAD if needed.
Any recommendation would be great Thanks!

Section One: Assets and Debt
Retirement: I work in government and have an employer-matched pension plan, so I just use my RRSP as a secondary long term saving option (I should look in to investing within it). My RRSP is currently sitting at about $3,000.
TFSA: $19,500 (my main long term/down payment savings account)
Savings account: $18,000 (putting away money for a down payment (someday, maybe))
Checking account: $3600 (I try to keep it around $4000, and transfer anything over that to my TFSA)
Credit card debt: none - I pay for almost everything on my credit cards but pay them off every month. I have three - one no-fee card that accumulates grocery points, one travel card, and one no-fee card that I use for shared expenses
Student loan debt: none - I was super lucky to pay for my undergrad through a combination of scholarships, an RESP my parents paid into that covered most of my first year, and working one well-paid summer job and 2-3 part time jobs during the academic year throughout my degree. I worked for a year before starting grad school and had my MA tuition fully funded, with my government coop terms covering my living costs.
Partner: My partner, W, and I have not combined incomes
Section Two: Income
Main Job Monthly Take Home: Approx. $4000 (paid biweekly) I work in government and am paid through the Phoenix Pay System. Worth a google, but TLDR is that the system is broken and there are a lot of issues with paying people correctly. My file is only a little messed up, but I regularly have incorrect deductions taken off my pay and haven’t had a consistently correct pay cheque in over a year.
Deductions generally break down to (per month): $960 in tax $600 to my pension (fully matched)
$50 in union dues
$24 in death benefit
$30 in disability insurance
$200 to Canada Pension Plan (I usually max out my contributions in October)
$30 to EI (usually maxes out in September)
Side Gig Monthly Take Home
No side gig
Section Three: Expenses
Rent: $1237 for my half of the 2 bed, 2 bath apartment I split with my partner. We have similar incomes, so we split the rent, but he pays for the parking spot because it’s his car.
Renters / home insurance: $17/month
Savings contribution: $200 a month to my HYSA, $300/month to my TFSA
Investment contribution: $25/month to a WealthSimple account
Donations: I budget about $500 for annual donations to causes throughout the year, but will be making a portion of this planned monthly donations in 2021.
I coach a girls hockey team as well, and including supervising time at the rink off-ice and planning practices, it’s about 6 hours a week.
Electric: About $30 a month for my half
Internet: $35/month for my half
Cellphone: $25/month (I’m on a grandfathered plan and it is glorious)
Subscriptions:
$11 for Patreons (Unladylike and the American Girls Podcast)
$13.99 for Netflix (my mum uses my account) (W has Amazon Prime)
$4.99 for student spotify premium (I still have access to my student email accounts, so why not?)
$6.99 every three months for a Joy razor subscription
$149/year for my travel credit card (a great investment any year but this one - it gives great travel rewards, has good insurance, and comes with a PriorityPass lounge membership)
Gym membership: $12.99/month for Peloton digital (I used to have a corporate GoodLife membership, but I let it lapse because COVID. When I moved in to a building with a Peloton bike, I tried the app, decided I loved it, and haven’t looked back)
Car: I don’t own a car, but I do use VrtuCar for getting to/from the rink and occasional other outings. I pay $5 a month for the membership (my travel credit card has CLDI) and usually spend about $100-$150 a month in rental fees (you pay by the km and the hour)
*Note on food: W and I share expenses for some food, but we largely prepare our own meals since we have fairly different diets (I'm gluten free and generally don't cook meat at home, he eats a ton and has meat most days). So you won't see me mentioning much of his food in the diary.
Paid hobbies:
In a normal year, I play in a rec women’s hockey league, which costs about $400/year.
My partner and I would also normally join at least one mixed sports league with a group of our friends, which would cost around $130 for the summer.
I previously did yoga once a week at a studio near me, using Costco class passes. My mum bought me a 25 class pass for Christmas last year, $225.
Day One
6am - alarm goes off to take the antibiotics I’m on for a small infection. As soon as I’ve taken it, I roll over for an extra hour and a half of sleep.
7:30am - my boyfriend, W, and I cuddle a little before getting up to start the week. I’ve made a deal with myself that I have to put on “real” clothes during the workweek so I put on jeans (thrifted Zara high rise skinnies, my favourite pair), an old, oversized pink sweater from H&M and adorable half hoop earrings off Etsy, and walk to the second bedroom (set up as our shared office) to start my day. While the computer starts up, I boil water and grind local coffee beans (Equator, for anyone from the NCR) for my French Press and make a bowl of greek yogurt with banana slices and granola. I start my day clearing my inbox and eating breakfast.
10:30am - After my weekly team call, I call the Pay Centre because my paycheque for this week has some weird deductions and a weird total. They’re not able to provide an answer, but they open a ticket to get it looked at. This means I’ll be putting the additional amount immediately into savings, in case any of it was paid in error and will need to be paid back later. Google “Phoenix Pay System” for some of the horror stories, it’s fun (she said sarcastically).
12:15pm - Between calling Phoenix and having a long list of follow-ups from Friday, this morning flew by. I toast a gluten free bagel (I have Celiac’s) and heat up some chicken and rice soup for lunch, which I eat while watching HopeScope videos on YouTube. I make some Irish Breakfast tea and grab a ginger cookie before going back to my desk.
2:30pm - My dad stops by to drop off Christmas lights for our balcony. He lives alone and has a history of depression, so we’re considering ourselves “bubbled” with him (even though it’s not strictly recommended in Ontario, Ottawa’s cases are really low and we’re careful otherwise). I still wear a mask when I see him other than having dinner with him about once a month.
4:15pm - I wrap things up, then get changed to go on a run. Ottawa is starting to get COLD, but I finally got in to running during COVID so I’m committed to trying to run through the winter, although I’m still learning how to layer properly. Today I wear smartwool socks, Lululemon Speed Ups (bought in their Black Friday sale), an Old Navy sports bra (the only sports bras I don’t hate for running), a Lululemon long sleeve swiftly as my base layer, a pullover from my undergrad, a high vis toque, running gloves, my New Balance runners, and a running belt for my phone, keys and mask. I drop off Christmas cards in the mailbox on my way out (all stamped with stamps I already bought). I do about 7km tonight while listening to the Office Ladies podcast then stretch when I get home.
6pm - After rinsing off and devouring some corn tortillas with peanut butter, W. wants to go on a drive to make sure his winter tires are aligned. We drive to a fancy neighbourhood to see their Christmas lights and play Christmas songs on the radio. It’s pretty adorable.
7pm - I prep my dinner (which will also be my next few lunches) - a sheet pan dinner of broccoli, pepper, zucchini and halloumi with rice, pesto, and Everything But the Bagel seasoning. W. is going home for a month later this week, so we exchanged gifts last weekend, and he got me a hydroponic herb starter kit, which we set up together.
11pm - After watching tv mindlessly with W., we both get ready for bed. I do my nighttime face routine (FAB cleanser, Caudalie toner, FAB moisturizer, and a pimple patch on a cystic zit developing on my chin). I want to do a Peloton ride in the morning, so I set out my workout clothes before going to sleep around 11:30pm.
Total spent: $0
Day 2
6:30am - Alarm goes off. I take my antibiotic, pull on my workout clothes (Mondetta bike shorts, a Lululemon Energy Bra, Old Navy cropped tank, Lululemon Speed socks, old sweatshirt, and my UnderArmour mask) and head down to the gym. Our building’s gym is small and has a 3 person max occupancy right now, so first thing in the morning is the only time I can reliably get in to the gym during non-business hours. I do a 45 minute pop ride with Tunde and after my run last night, my legs are DEAD. I take a long shower back upstairs.
8:30am - I’m working later today to support my coworker on a file, so I’ve shifted my hours to 10am-6pm (which I hate, but whatever). After blowdrying my bangs and putting on my Zara jeans a cozy merino wool sweater, and polymer clay earrings, I run to Farm Boy (think Trader Joe’s) to pick up a few things I need. There’s some dude being a jerk and making a stink about putting on the mask he currently has around his chin, but I and the other two people in line behind him all tiredly tell him to just put it on and get out of the way. Ugh. I buy Brussels sprouts, cheddar cheese, cream cheese, thai soup, miso paste, granola, gluten free Stroopwafels, and some fresh pesto (the odds and ends I forgot when doing my big shop, plus impulse buying the cookies and miso), and spend about $45.
9:30am - Back home, I make coffee and have a bagel with cream cheese, then settle in for the morning.
12:30pm - I take a short lunch break, eating leftovers from last night while making myself a calendar for 2021 on VistaPrint (I couldn’t find what I wanted through Etsy or local stores, so I use some basic digital design skills to make one with some of my own travel photos). $25 including shipping.
2pm - While waiting for input on a document I’m working on, I end up on Etsy (oops) and order a velvet scrunchie and a new neck gaiter for running, since I could not find mine last night. I’ve been trying to shop used or small/local since the pandemic, and Etsy has really opened up a whole new world of options. $20
6:15pm - Done for the day, and boy did I forget how depressing it is to finish work after sunset in the winter. W. and I decide to go for a walk to see the Christmas lights at Parliament Hill, then stop to pick up shawarma on our way home because we’re both tired and not feeling it. Mine is $15.99, but it’ll be both my dinner tonight and lunch tomorrow.
7pm - W. and I put on some Office Christmas episodes while we eat. Then he does some cleaning and I pull out my computer to play Civ and do some browsing.
11:30pm - W. and I both got caught up in our respective laptops on the couch, and only head for bed now. After doing my face wash routine, we lie in bed scrolling through TikToks until 12:15 (oops)
Totals:
Food: $61
House: $25
Personal/clothing: $20
Day 3
6am - Water, pill, back to sleep
7:45am - It’s snowing and W and I are so cozy in bed that we cuddle a little too long. We finally get up and I throw on my favourite non-legging lazy pants (these great sweatpants that look like real pants from Roots), a tank, a cozy cardigan and my Birkenstock-style clog slippers. Then it’s the usual coffee, yogurt-banana-granola combo and emails and documents for the morning.
10:30am - I take a 15 minute break to check that my paycheque was deposited (it was) and to pay off my credit cards (which I do every pay cycle - I never carry a balance but I do put just about everything on credit). While in my email I also see that Air Canada has confirmed my cancellation of a trip to see W’s family for the holidays - I booked it when cases were MUCH lower, with full knowledge that I would likely have to cancel, but it still stings a little. W’s still going, since he can work remotely from there and hasn’t seen his family in over a year, so I’m a little bummed we won’t be spending our first Christmas together like I’d hoped (we’ve been together about 3 years and moved in together in the spring). I’ll get a voucher for the value of the flight and use it to visit his family when it’s safe to do so.
12:15pm - Lunch break! I heat up more leftover rice and the veggie/halloumi combo and top it with pesto and kimchi. Today I eat watching the latest Endless Adventure and an old Eamon and Bec on YouTube. I make tea and grab a cookie before getting back to work around 1pm.
4:30pm - I stayed online late waiting to hear back from my boss on a file I’m working on, but not hearing anything I decide to log off now. It can wait until morning. I scroll through tiktoks while stretching my back on the floor until it’s time to get ready to head to the rink. I change into leggings and a sweatshirt and walk a couple of blocks to grab my VrtuCar.
8:30pm - Home from the rink! While it definitely increases my exposure, I feel good about the league’s approach to COVID (they’ve made teams smaller, teams only practice/scrimmage within a bubble of four teams, they’ve modified the rules, and adults/coaches wear masks except when we need to remove them to communicate safely) and I do really love having a chance to get on the ice. Tonight was a scrimmage, and I reffed, so I got lots of skating in! My VrtuCar was $13 for tonight.
9pm - After heating up my leftover shawarma (SO. GOOD), I hang out while W finishes packing, and we watch some more Office together while cuddling on the couch. We go to bed a little early for more TikTok and cuddle time, since he’s leaving tomorrow, and fall asleep around 11:30pm.
Total spent: Transportation: $13
Day 4
6:30am - Alarm goes off. Pill, then I pull myself out of the cozy bed and throw on cropped leggings, a workout tank, a Define jacket and my UnderArmour mask before heading down to the gym for a Peloton ride. This morning it’s pop with Tunde, and it’s a great workout!
8am - After showering and blowdrying my bangs (I forgot this was why I grew out my bangs the last time, ugh), I throw on a great pair of 7 for all Mankind frayed hem jeans I thirfted, a cute Uniqlo sweater, and my favourite clay earrings. The usual coffee and yogurt/banana/granola combo as I go through my emails. I seriously need to do laundry, so I do a few loads throughout my morning. This is my first apartment with in-unit laundry and it is a HUGE life upgrade, especially with wfh.
12pm - Quick lunch break, since I’m helping out with an interview at 1. Same leftovers (today with spicy hummus), accompanied by Kara and Nate’s latest.
2:30pm - After wrapping up the interview, W. and I head out to pick up the car and take him to the airport. I’m tempted to stop for a holiday drink on my way home but decide to save it for my walk with a friend tomorrow. It’s $16 for the car, but W will pay me back for it since it’s saving him from Ubering. I have a DENSE document to review before finishing for the day, so I make myself a big mug of tea to power through.
5:30pm - After finishing work, I order my dad’s Christmas gift (I’ve been discussing options with my brother since last night to coordinate). I’ve been trying to buy small/local as much as possible this year, so I order him Obama’s new book from my favourite local bookstore ($57) and good merino wool socks (for taking distanced walks through the winter) from one of my favourite outdoors stores ($37), both for pickup in store. Both could have been purchased for less from big box stores, but the small price difference is worth it to keep these kinds of shops open in my neighbourhood! I just have to get a smaller gift to go with my mum’s main gift and then I’ll be 100% done shopping! $94 total
7pm - After lazing around, it’s time to tidy up and make dinner. I put on some old Gilmore Girls for background noise while I unload the dishwasher and make a dinner of duck fat roasted Brussels sprouts (from duck fat W. didn’t finish before leaving) and perogies. I settle in for an evening on the couch, watching Gilmore Girls and playing the Sims.
11pm - W. calls me from his layover to update me on flying in the COVID era, then I go to bed around 11:30pm.
Total: $94
Day 5
6am - Last day of this!
7:45am - I’d thought it would be easier to get up with W gone, but turns out having no outside push/peer pressure to get up doesn’t help? Alas. I’m not feeling it this morning, so I toss on my thrifted Zara jeans, a graphic sweatshirt and toss my hair back. Today it’s a bagel and coffee for breakfast because Friday! While checking my email, I see an item I’d posted on Poshmark has sold - score! I don’t consider this a side hustle, since I don’t put a lot of effort in and I only re-sell nicer things that I’m done with in an effort to reduce waste, but it’s still nice. I’ve made a conscious effort over the last year to try to acquire more clothing used (local instagram thrifters and poshmark have been my go-tos) and drastically reduce my fast fashion consumption. I’m not perfect, but I’m working on it! I’ll be making $13 from this sale after Poshmark takes its fees.
12:15pm - I use my lunch break to run to my local bike store and get my skates sharpened ($9) - the last time I had them done was in September, and I’ve been on the ice 1-2 times a week since then. Oops! It’s a quick errand, and I make myself lunch when I get home - a packaged thai noodle soup, to which I add an assortment of fresh veggies.
4:30pm - After a late call with my manager (sigh), I head out to meet an old friend for a walk outside, dropping the Poshmark package in the postbox on my way. I’ve been dragging all day so I grab an Irish Cream Americano from Starbucks on my way (paid for with a giftcard), and we end up walking for almost two hours!
7pm - After getting home, I’m still exhausted. I drag myself off the couch to make a dinner of pasta with pesto and pan fried zucchini and butternut squash. I spend the evening vegging, watching A Princess Switch 2 (TERRIBLE) and Schitt’s Creek, while making a quick plan for tomorrow’s hockey practice. I head to bed around 11:30pm.
Total: $9
Day 6
10am - After lazing around awhile, I get myself up to get ready to head to the rink. I throw on my Speed Up leggings and a grey Roots quarter zip pullover, then make an easy breakfast of mashed avocado and feta on an English Muffin. I watch a few old travel vlogs before heading to the rink.
1:30pm - Back from the rink! The car cost $16.50 - I’m going to have to do some price comparisons to see whether it would be worth it to upgrade my membership package. I make some Annie’s mac and cheese and a French Press, then curl up under a blanket to watch some Schitt’s Creek.
4pm - After a fully unproductive afternoon, I light some candles and do a yoga class using my Peloton app (I usually just do Yoga With Adriene but there’s a challenge on Peloton so I’m trying to max out the number of days I do Peloton workouts). Then I make a flatbread pizza with pesto and veggies and watch a couple of episodes of Gilmore Girls. After cleaning up the kitchen, I pour myself a cider and take a bath. I read You Never Forget Your First in the bath, which is so good!
9pm - I have no motivation, and I’ve decided to do a 60 minute ride first thing tomorrow, so I bring my laptop to bed and watch youtube videos until I fall asleep around 11pm.
Total: $16.50
Day 7
6:45am - I have all the regrets. But I drag myself out of bed, throw on bike shorts and a tshirt, and head down to the gym. Once I’m on the bike it’s all good, and I’m wide awake after the class!
9am - After showering (and blowdrying my bangs), I get dressed (Aerie leggings and a cozy sweater - it’s Sunday) I make a breakfast sandwich (egg, cheese and avocado on an English Muffin) and some coffee, which I enjoy in front of some Schitt’s Creek. It looks like it’s going to snow later and I want to go out once today, so I walk to Shoppers around 11am (where I get some new tweezers, wax strips and a new foot file - $21.23) and walk for about an hour while listening to Gee Thanks, Just Bought It.
12:30pm - I’ve been putting off a deep clean of the shower, but today’s the day! I scrub down both bathrooms and vacuum the apartment while listening to Forever35. Once the place is clean, I cuddle up on the couch with my laptop. I order some cider from a local brewery, some for me and some to go in my mum’s Christmas gift ($32, which comes with free delivery).
3pm - I’ve been doing some online training for personal/career development and I’m really behind, so I set up at my desk and get through a couple of weeks worth of sessions (it’s self-paced, but meant to be completed in six weeks). Since finishing grad school a few years ago I’ve been kind of struggling to identify what kind of path I want to take in my career, so courses like this to help refine my existing skills are helpful.
5pm - Days feel so long when you get up early! I decide to do some meal prep for the week and make a big helping of vegetable curry and rice, with The Holiday in the background. After eating a bowl of it (gotta do quality control!) I make a hot chocolate spiked with amaretto to finish the movie.
8pm - Another COVID weekend is mostly over. My meal prep has cooled enough to be put in the fridge, and after doing that I crawl into bed with my laptop (again - I normally don’t bring my computer to bed but with W gone …) and message W and watch youtube videos until I go to bed around 11pm.
Total Spent: Self care: $21.23
Food/Alcohol: $32
Total Spent for the week
Food/Drinks: $93
Gifts: $94
Misc personal spending: $76.23
Transportation: $29.50

Total compensation: 70-90k CAD in Canada, averaging ~84K USD in the US
Years of experience: 2.5
Recommended education: Master's degree
Source: https://www.pathviz.com/careers/pathologists-assistant/4Kobj0QXJpMk
Additional videos: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxCYlpX-zL8fjywOC9lINfw

What education would you recommend?

- Bachelor's degree with a science background / Master's degree / CCCPA (Canadian Certification Council of Pathologists' Assistants) certification or ASCP (American Society for Clinical Pathology) certification

Describe the path you took to become a pathologists' assistant

I obtained a Bachelor's degree in Kinesiology which provided the opportunity to obtain all of the prerequisite science courses (eg biology, chemistry, anatomy, physiology) I needed for additional schooling. From there I detoured and worked as an EMT for two years before coming back to school and obtaining my Master's degree of Pathologists' Assistants.

What's a day in the life of a pathologists' assistant?

A pathologists' assistant (PA) is someone who works in the anatomic pathology department and focuses mainly on dissection of surgical tissue, performing frozens/intraoperative consults and may also work in a morgue performing autopsies.
Dissection of surgical tissue is the bread and butter of a PA - all the tissue that comes from ORs is sent to pathology for documentation and examination. When we get a specimen, first we record what we receive in our system, take photos if necessary and send for any additional testing if required. Surgical margins and important structures are often inked with dye prior to dissection as well and this lets us see where the margins are after we cut it up. Before the actual dissection and examination takes place, tissue is typically placed into formalin to fix overnight. This is a process of chemically "cooking" the tissue which kills most infectious organisms, keeps it from rotting and makes cutting easier.
Once the tissue has been fixed, we measure and describe its size and appearance, document any orientation the surgeon has provided along with what our ink colors indicate (if we used ink) and then we will cut through it looking for anything weird. This process is called grossing and yes, sometimes this is in fact... gross.
Typically any pathology (aka anything diseased/wrong with the tissue) you can see with your eyes and this tells us where to focus our attention when we are grossing. So whether there's a tumor, abnormal bleeding, dead or dying tissue or even something that's become obstructed (eg a gallbladder with gallstones) that's something we see and we'll dictate size, measurements, appearance and distance to surgical margins into a report for that case. From there we take pieces of tissue, or sections, which will get processed, cut super thin and put onto slides for a pathologist to review - it's from these slides that a diagnosis and final evaluation of surgical margins are issued. For some cases the pathologist is looking for things like inflammation which can indicate something as simple as appendicitis whereas other times they are deciding what type of cancer someone has and if the surgical margins are clear of tumor (ie did the surgeon cut it all out or is some still left in the patient?).
Because a lot of the diseased areas are only in a specific part of a bigger piece of tissue, we focus on giving the pathologist the sections that best represent the ongoing pathology as efficiently and effectively as possible. There are also far more specimens that require dissection than a team of pathologists could handle if they had to both gross everything and then look at slides afterwards so we make sure they can spend the majority of their time looking at slides.
Frozens/intraoperative consults is like speed grossing on steroids. While surgeons are still in their OR with a patient on the table, they will send up tissue for a real time analysis or diagnosis. They might be doing a routine surgery, see something unusual and send it to the lab for a frozen to determine if it's cancer and if they need to do their surgery differently. Or maybe they know it's cancer already but in a tricky spot like the mouth or face and before they continue the surgery they want to make sure all their surgical margins are tumor free, so they can send frozens for that too.
These frozens are usually smaller pieces of tissue that can be grossed, frozen on a cryostat (speed freezing machine - thus the name "frozens") and put on a slide for a diagnosis that can come back in about 20 minutes. This is pretty resource intensive though so it's not done all the time for every case.
And finally, our job at autopsy is to work alongside a pathologist or resident to remove the internal organs from a body. We are typically involved in the evisceration part of this (ie the actual organ removal) while the pathologist will take the organs after we've removed them and dissect through them trying to find what caused the person to die. These aren't done for every person, usually just the ones where a family member or physician in charge wants to determine cause of death when they otherwise aren't sure or don't know.
In addition to those main tasks, I am also occasionally tasked with helping train a new pathology resident or PA student to do all of those things above.

What's the best part of being a pathologists' assistant?

There are so many great things about this job!
Firstly, your work directly impacts patient treatment and you are part of a team that is potentially saving someone's life. For those craving meaning in your work, this is definitely somewhere to find it.
In addition to that, the work itself requires both manual dexterity and mental engagement which is something I personally find a lot of satisfaction in. Working with your hands all day without the mental component feels empty to me and the same can be said for a purely intellectual career. Often you're actively dissecting through tissue while concurrently using your knowledge of anatomy and disease to identify the disease itself, if present, along with adjacent structures meaningful to the final diagnosis and treatment plan. While there is a broad similarity in everything we receive in the lab, each specimen has the potential to be a bit different and present it's own challenges you have to be prepared to tackle.
That said, not everything we deal with is mind-bendingly complex. I find there is a balance between mentally stimulating and even challenging cases with the routine, less demanding cases. It's often a relief to get the chance to reset your brain after something complex and I rarely if ever feel like I've been mentally steamrolled by the end of a workday.
Also for anyone looking for a job that integrates technology into the workflow, this has that too! All our cases are tracked through a computer system which is there to help ensure all the work for a specific person, stays associated with that person. Cases are dictated using voice recognition software and uploaded onto a database containing all patient information. Patient histories, previous test results and imaging (all of which can be used to guide your dissection) are accessible through our computer system. Unique or anatomically complex cases are often photographed and annotations are added to the digital version to indicate where tissue has been sampled (a picture is worth a thousand words). And regular training sessions for students as well as continuing educational opportunities are often hosted online through Zoom meetings.
Last but certainly not least, is the working hours are quite attractive. The vast majority of shifts are Monday-Friday and fall somewhere between a 6-9 am start with an 8.25 hour workday. Perhaps one week every few months I work until 10:45 pm (and am paid a premium for the evening hours). I rarely if ever work longer than an 8.25 hour shift or weekends - when I do it's typically for voluntary OT opportunities.

What's the downside of being a pathologists' assistant? Words of caution?

This is a job where more often than not, you will stare at feces, pus, blood, tumors and occasionally dead bodies all day every day. There are many gross and unusual things that come out of the human body and you have to be mentally prepared for that. Occasionally you will even get some of those things on yourself. Of course you will be wearing personal protective equipment while working but projectiles of goo and blood have a way of landing right where nothing covers.
There is also a potential emotional toll this job can take on you. While you don't see and deal with patients face to face, everything you deal with comes from a person and can be from people who are very sick, at risk of dying or have already died. If that isn't enough, mistakes can potentially cost lives as your work directly impacts diagnosis and thus treatment. Coming in to work and not being on your A game is not acceptable.
Finally about 90%+ of your workday is spent in a lab where your your exposure to other people can be fairly limited. You're not interacting with patients and may only see or speak to anywhere between 1 to 10 people in a given day. For those who crave a lot of interpersonal social interaction or even interaction with patients directly, this is not the place for you.

What's the earning potential? Entry-level? Mid-level? Senior-level?

My compensation range is from Canada which from what I've heard is lower than the PAs in the US are paid. On average across the country, I believe US PA's make ~84K a year.

Is being a pathologists' assistant in demand right now?

Where I'm currently working we are down several people (so yes it's in demand in my city!) and our employer has yet to fill those positions. The jobs are posted online but the job posting closing dates are often only a week after the initial posting so I would keep looking at job boards as these posting can come up and down fairly quickly - and just because it is taken down or expires doesn't necessarily mean it was filled so don't give up if you see you've missed an application date. Chances are another one will be posted soon. Also if you can get to know anyone in the area you'd like to work they may know if their hospital or is short and if new postings will be going up soon. They may be able to give you a heads up on when and where to look for a job posting.

Advice on how to get started as a pathologists' assistant

If you have an interest in medicine and healthcare but don't want to be a nurse or a physician and dedicate another 10-12 years to school there are still options! Becoming a PA requires a two year Master's level training program (1 year classroom, 1 year practicum) at an accredited school followed by certification through the CCCPA in Canada or the ASCP in the United States. Currently In Canada there is still an option to become certified through on-the-job (OJT) training but this route to certification has a few other stipulations (2 years work experience required) and will be closed as of the end of 2024. In the US the only certification option is through an accredited PA program.
The available training programs (currently 12 accredited programs between Canada and the US) all require a Bachelor's degree, typically in the sciences. They all have slightly different admission requirements so it's worth looking at a few of them to see if those differences will affect you. For example, some of the programs require specific courses within your Bachelor's such as organic chemistry, biology with a lab component, anatomy and physiology.
Another thing that will make a strong applicant is relevant shadowing experience - some programs require this as part of their application process. This ensures you actually know what you are getting into and are prepared for the rigors of school and the career waiting for you at the end of the road.

What are bad recommendations you hear in your profession or area of expertise?

I would avoid getting a job in this field through on the job training (OJT) if possible and go through a formal program instead. Becoming certified as a PA in Canada by 2024 will only be available to those who have completed an accredited training program. Similarly if you ever wanted to work in the US, there is no option for certification unless you've gone through an accredited program.

What skills are needed to be a pathologists' assistant?

Outside of any course work and love for the sciences you'll need to get into and through a training program, people who excel at this job have strong hand eye coordination for the dissection work to go along with a strong stomach as you'll be seeing and smelling some unpleasant things during a workday. Also If you can approach the work with a sense of clinical detachment that will be ideal for your long term mental health.

What's work/industry culture like?

My workplace has a range of ages of people from students who have just started training as PAs right from undergrad and so are in their mid 20's up to a couple people in their 60's. People are quite friendly and perhaps because we see such advanced disease so often we are less likely to be worried or focussed on the "small things" since we know how precious and short life can be.

What's important to understand for your specific region?

The jobs in my region are unionized so often the first public job posting is filled with an internal applicant - but this then means the internal applicant taking that spot will open up another spot that needs to be filled which can create a domino effect of people moving from position to position for a shift time or home site they would prefer. Because of this you are usually better off to take any position you can get (eg casual or a temp filling a maternity leave) or taking a less desirable position just to get your foot in the door. Then, once you're in and can apply for future jobs as an internal applicant you'll be much more likely to get it.

Advice on how to get promoted

Since I work in a unionized system, raises come on a grid system every year for 8 or 9 years before we cap out our salary. As well as our bookable holiday time increases in similar increments from an initial 1 week to 6 weeks a year and potentially longer depending on how long your stay in the union. So in that sense, you get "promoted" for your length of service to the company.

What's the future outlook for a pathologists' assistant?

I'm certain that as population size continues to increase, baby boomers keep aging and living longer, there will be more and more utilization of hospitals and the lab. The number of people currently training to become pathologists is trending downwards and this makes work that we do (ie to keep pathologists out of the lab dissecting which they sometimes will do and more time spent at their microscopes diagnosing) is highly beneficial and puts us more in demand.

What opportunities can being a pathologists' assistant lead to?

A lot of people I know love this job and want to continue it for their entire career. However some individuals move into teaching roles at schools with PA programs and will teach students to become PAs themselves. I've also seen some of my coworkers use their education and work as a PA to springboard themselves into medical school.

What's work-life balance like?

My work life balance is quite favorable. My position is unionized so a full work day for me is 8.25 hours long, including two 30 minute break (one paid, one unpaid). This means that even on busier days I'm still getting a rest and am not expected to be at work longer than my specified shift time. Occasionally the opportunity for overtime work and pay arises but there is no penalty if I don't take one of these shifts.
I also don't take work home with me - at the end of the day when I leave I'm done and can focus on other things outside of work until the next morning.

What types of companies should people target in their job search?

Hospitals or healthcare providers are the most likely employers for Pathologists' Assistants.

How can people contact you or your company?

If anyone is interested in learning more about what a PA does or how to become one, along with an evolving guide for PA students, I've posted a few videos to explain the process behind it along with some educational material to help pass on what I learned. You can find them at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxCYlpX-zL8fjywOC9lINfw.
For additional questions I can also be reached by email at [email protected]