I seem to remember someone doing this a few years back and really enjoying it, so I thought I'd give it a shot with the condensed schedule leaving so many games on the schedule each night. I'm ranking each game in three categories: competitiveness, importance, and style points/storylines (which includes star power, the style of basketball, and any intriguing stories to watch). I'll include a survey at the end where you can predict the winners of each game! Let me know if this is something you'd like to see again! 10) Milwaukee Bucks (1-1) vs. New York Knicks (0-2) at 7:30 pm EST Where to Watch: League Pass Spread: Milwaukee -11 Last Meeting: January 14th, 2020. RJ Barrett drained five threes and Bobby Portis scored 20 off the bench, but the Bucks dominated the Knicks at Fiserv Forum 128-102. The two teams combined for a whopping 79 points in the third quarter. The Bucks have won their last five meetings with the Knicks, with the last New York win coming in an overtime thriller at the Garden in December of 2018. Competitiveness: A championship contender that dismantled the Warriors by 40 facing the Knicks on the tail end of a back-to-back. Not much else to say here. 1.5/10 Importance: This game is essentially a scheduled win for the Bucks, and a chance for the Knicks to test their young guys and let them grow up a little. Unfortunate that Obi Toppin will be on the sidelines for this one. 2/10 Style Points: The high-flying Bucks offense has been off to another hot start, topping the 120 point mark in both of their games. The Knicks' young guns have shown promise and made so flashy plays, but they also turn the ball over a lot. Neither team tends to foul a lot or shoot a ton of free throws, which will help game flow. Some might keep an eye on Giannis' free throw shooting, but the real story to watch is RJ Barrett's three point accuracy. He lit it up from distance against Indiana, but struggled mightily against Philly. Can he take a step forward in that department this season? Bonus points for the MSG crew calling this game. 6/10 Overall Rating: 3/10 9) Brooklyn Nets (2-0) vs. Charlotte Hornets (0-2) at 7:00 pm EST Where to Watch: NBA TV Spread: Brooklyn -7.5 Last Meeting: February 22nd, 2020. The Nets used a third quarter explosion to turn a comfortable win into a rout as they won 115-86. Luwawu-Cabarrot led the team in scoring with 21, while Garrett Temple of all people snagged eleven boards. Competitiveness: The Nets have steamrolled over their competition so far, blowing out the Warriors and Celtics by 20+ points. The Hornets have struggled with two losses to non-contenders, and come into this game on the wrong end of a back-to-back. 1.5/10 Importance: A contending Nets team cannot afford to drop games like this one, especially in the early part of the season when there are so many eyeballs on KD and Kyrie. The Hornets could really use a positive performance to get their season headed in the right direction. 4/10 Style Points: The Nets have stars all over the court and have looked like a juggernaut early this season, making them one of the most intriguing teams to watch, and a fun one too, as they've played fast and made lots of threes. Charlotte ranked last in pace of play last season but seems to be trying to pick things up. You'll get the Charlotte crew for this game on NBA TV, and they call a fun game. Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward are two guys to pay attention to- Rozier dropped 42 on a Cavs team that sucks at defending point guards. Is he headed for a breakout season? Hayward was shut down by the Thunder last night and will look to get things going. Plus LaMelo Ball! 8/10 Overall: 4.4/10 8) Golden State Warriors (0-2) vs. Chicago Bulls (0-2) at 8:00 pm EST Where to Watch: League Pass Spread: Golden State -2.5 Last Meeting: December 6th, 2019. Glenn Robinson III made the go-ahead layup with a minute left and a very different looking Warriors team beat the Bulls 100-98 in Chicago. Denzel Valentine was ejected in the third quarter for yelling at the Warriors' bench. Competitiveness: The Warriors have been blown out by two great teams so far. The Bulls have been blown out by two mediocre teams and just played a deflating contest against the Pacers last night. 4.5/10 Importance: Both teams could really use their first win of the season. The Warriors cannot afford to lose to teams like the Bulls if they're going to contend for the playoffs. This probably still figures as a matchup of two non-contenders, though. 5.5/10 Style Points: The Bulls have lots of exciting young players, but they seem turnover-prone and have struggled to score. Neither team has been able to stop literally anyone on defense so far (lol thanks Golden State for taking Wiggins), so there's a chance this turns into one of those ridiculous shootouts where both teams top 70 in the first half. Patrick Williams looked good in his first game against the Hawks, but the Pacers were able to shut him down. Watching him adjust to the breakneck pace of games and the new level of competition will be interesting. The Warriors will need to find other sources of offense besides Curry and Wiseman, and this game is a perfect chance for them to do so. Definitely opt for the Chicago broadcast if you tune in. 4.5/10 Overall: 4.8/10 ** 7)Philadelphia 76ers (2-0) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2-0) at 7:30 pm EST** Where to Watch: League Pass Spread: Philadelphia -6 Last Meeting: February 26th, 2020. The Sixers had to play most of the game without their two best players as Joel Embiid left in the first quarter with a sprained shoulder. The Cavs, then the worst team in the East, led the entire way and won 108-94. Competitiveness: The Cavs look like a much better team this year as Sexton has another year under his belt and they have Drummond underneath. There's a long way to go to challenge the Sixers, though, and they played an exhausting two-overtime trench war with the Pistons last night while Philly coasted to an easy win over the Knicks. 5/10 Importance: Definitely a litmus test game for the Cavs- can they hang with Philly and prove that they can be that dangerous team no one wants to face in the east play-in tournament? The 76ers might be looking past this game as they have a big clash with Tampa Bay coming up on Tuesday. 4/10 Style Points: This game gives us two matchups between stars. Joel Embiid has been on a mission to start this season, following up his 29/14 against Washington with a 27/10 against the Knicks. His matchup with Andre Drummond will be one to watch. At point guard, Simmons-Sexton could be an even more exciting face-off. The Cavs have played a more fun style of basketball this season, using Sexton to ignite a high pressure defense that stole a win in Detroit. That double-overtime win might prove costly tonight, though, when they run out of gas against a deeper and more talented Sixers team. Bonus points for the Cavs having that really fun color guy, I guess. 6.75/10 Overall: 5.25/10 6) Minnesota Timberwolves (2-0) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (1-1) at 10:00 pm EST Where to watch: NBA TV Spread: Los Angeles -11 Last Meeting: December 8th, 2019. AD dropped half a hundred and LeBron put up 32 and thirteen assists as the Lakers won a 142-125 slugfest. The Wolves hung around and trailed by only seven after three quarters before LA pulled away. Competitiveness: The Wolves are off to a surprising 2-0 start, including an impressive win in Utah last night. Most would write this off as a scheduled loss, though, with a back-to-back against the defending champs and KAT getting dinged up at the end of the Jazz game. Still, it will be interesting to see how this new-look Wolves team trades punches with AD and Bron in the first half. 6/10 Importance: The Lakers seem to finally be settling into the new season after a disappointing showing on opening night, and will be looking for another statement win. Some Wolves fans have speculated that they will rest KAT after his injury scare tonight. I'd expect him to play, but no one in Minnesota thinks they will win this game. 3/10 Style Points: Anthony Edwards going up against two of the best in the game? DLo back in LA? Upstarts against the defending champs? Top notch storylines for this game, where the first half will be a good litmus test for Minnesota, before fatigue probably sets in for guys like Edwards and Culver and the game gets pretty ugly. Minnesota's defense looks much improved this season, and their explosive bench can keep this game fun. And you know what you're getting with the Lakers' stars. Unfortunately the NBA TV rights to this game mean most fans will get the LA crew and miss out on the top notch Fox Sports North announcers. 8/10 Overall: 5.6/10 5) San Antonio Spurs (2-0) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (1-1) at 7:00 pm EST Where to Watch: League Pass Spread: New Orleans -5 Last Meeting: August 9th, 2020. The Spurs and Pels faced off for a high-scoring showdown in the bubble that saw the two teams combined for 77 fourth quarter points. JJ Redick went off and hit eight threes and Zion chipped in 25, but the rest of their teammates shit the bed and the Spurs won 122-113. Competitiveness: The Spurs are off to a fast start, most recently squeaking out an impressive win over the Raptors last night. The Pelicans have produced mixed results, but beat Tampa by a more impressive margin and have an extra day of rest. Expect a close one early, with New Orleans having a sizeable edge late. 6.5/10 Importance: Both teams figure to be in the hunt for the final playoff spots and will see each other plenty this season as they are both in the same division. I doubt the Spurs would sweat this B2B loss too much, though. 7/10 Style Points: Zion put up a highlight-worthy 32 and 14 on Christmas Day against the Heat, and the Pels look like a new team on defense, making them one of the most interesting squads to watch this year. Ingram, Redick, Hart, and Lonzo can combine for an offensive explosion at any time. The Spurs can play kind of a bland style sometimes, especially with 35 year old LaMarcus Aldridge playing on a back-to-back. Dejounte Murray, who just posted his first career triple double and looks much improved this season, will be an interesting to player to watch today. This one feels like it could be a snooze-fest or a barn-burner, with nothing in between. 6.75/10 Overall: 6.7/10 4) Boston Celtics (1-1) vs. Indiana Pacers (2-0) at 8:00 pm EST Where to Watch: League Pass Spread: Boston -2.5 Last Meeting: Tuesday March 10th, 2020. The Celtics were the last team the Pacers faced before Miss Rona stepped in and put a stop to the basketball for awhile. Marcus Smart made the go-ahead layup to rescue Boston in the final minute after they blew a 19 point lead, and they held on to win 114-111. Sabonis posted a 28-9-8 night for Indiana. Competitiveness: The Celtics have the rest advantage, as they got the night off to lick their wounds after a Christmas Night Stomping at the hands of KD and Kyrie, while the Pacers had to take the floor last night and beat up on the Bulls. The Pacers figure to be in the middle of the playoff pack, while the Celtics would like to challenge the Bucks and Nets at the top, and this game will be a huge early measuring stick for both teams. The Pacers will have home floor, which makes this anyone's game. 8/10 Importance: It's never too early to have a big game for playoff seeding! The Celtics will be anxious to prove that their opening game win against Milwaukee was no fluke, while the Pacers need to show us that they can beat someone better than the Knicks and Bulls. 7.5/10 Style Points: This is where this game kind of falls short. Tatum, Kemba, Sabonis, Brown, and others all provide lots of star power, but aren't the big names featured elsewhere on this list, and both teams tend to play slower, more defensive-oriented basketball. The Celtics' thumping at the hands of the Nets is more of a story for Brooklyn than for Boston, and Indiana has maybe been the playoff team that jumped off the page less than anyone else so far. Add in a game that's only broadcast locally and that overlaps with every other game but two and this game takes a bump in a packed Sunday night slate. Still, this should be a very good game between two playoff teams, and a fun one to tune in for down the stretch if the Pacers keep it close. 5.5/10 Overall: 7/10 T-2) Orlando Magic (2-0) vs. Washington Wizards (0-2) at 7:00 pm EST Where to Watch: League Pass Spread: Washington -1.5 Last Meeting: Last night! The Magic and Wizards squared off for their first of back-to-back games, which was an exciting back-and-forth contest. The Magic had the edge on the glass for much of the game, which only intensified late as they pulled away and the Wizards started pressing and taking bad shots. Beal went off for 39 points while Westbrook posted a triple-double, proving that they can in fact play together just fine. Competitiveness: Last night's game was a see-sawing battle for most of the evening. Orlando looks like the better team and one of the more improved squads in the East, if their win against Miami is any indication. Still, beating a team on their home floor twice in a row is extraordinarily difficult, and the Wizards get to regroup and see if they can fix their rebounding woes against the same team. Expect another entertaining toss-up!9/10 Importance: Both teams are in roughly the same boat: improved squads who will likely find themselves sitting on the edge of the Eastern Conference playoff field. They won't see each other again in the first half of the season, and to pick up a quick two games on their competition would be an enormous boost for Orlando. 7.5/10 Style Points: The Wizards have been playing a fun new style with Russ and Bradley Beal sharing the load on offense, and early speculation about how the pair will get along on the court has been promising. The Magic get the job done with comparatively little star power, but Vucevic has always been one of the more underrated players in the league and deserves some recognition. Terrence Ross and Davis Bertans will be other players to keep an eye on- Ross has been extremely hot offensively in his first two games, while Bertans is a streaky shooter who can be the key to Washington winning or losing. Perhaps the most interesting storyline, though, is the back-to-back baseball-style two game series. College leagues are trying this out across the country and we've seen in leagues like the MAAC, Mountain West, and others how hard it is for superior teams to beat the same team on consecutive nights. We've also gotten a glimpse of this in the NBA preseason. This time, the teams are very evenly matched. How will the Wizards adjust tonight? What effect will the wonky scheduling have? 8/10 Overall: 8.2/10 T-2) Dallas Mavericks (0-2) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (2-0) at 3:30 pm EST Where to Watch: NBA TV Spread: Los Angeles -5 Last Meeting: August 30th, 2020. The Clippers knocked the Mavs out of the first round of the playoffs, winning Game 6 after the game was moved back due to the player strike. Doncic dropped 38 and Dorian Finney-Smith chipped in 16, but only one other Dallas played cracked double digits. L.A. moved on to the next round where they cruised through the first four games against the Nuggets and...oh wait hahahahahahahahahaha. Competitiveness: The Mavs need to get their shit together. They posted a close opening night loss against the Suns and then got their doors kicked in by the Lakers... neither of those are alarming results, but they're not the mark of a playoff team. The Clippers are angry at the way last season ended, ready to take it out on the league, and they've looked like a juggernaut with Nic Batum in their lineup, putting up convincing wins over the other top two teams in the West. Doncic can keep any game close, but he needs his teammates to carry some of the load, and the Clippers are still the clear favourites here. 6.5/10 Importance: Dallas needs to show that they can beat playoff teams, as their schedule for the next few weeks doesn't get any easier after tonight. They'll face the Heat, Rockets, Magic, Nuggets, and Pelicans. They'll have to figure out who their second and third best scoring options are in the process. Both teams will be looking for a statement win on a national stage- they're the only teams playing in the afternoon tomorrow and get a national broadcast on NBA TV. 8/10 Style Points: Kawhi... Luka... PG13.... could you really get any more star power? The Mavs looking for revenge on the team that knocked them out of the playoffs by beating them in a Sunday Showcase game (albeit on NBA TV) in their house provides a great story to go along with the stars. The Clippers have been red hot from three point range to start the season, and a Mavs defense that allowed 138 points to the Lakers will probably provide plenty of opportunities for more fireworks. If not for the potential of a lopsided final score, this would be the #1 game of the day. Tune into this instead of football on a relatively light NFL day. 10/10 Overall: 8.2/10 1) Phoenix Suns (1-1) vs. Sacramento Kings (2-0) at 9:00 pm EST Where to Watch: League Pass Spread: Phoenix -3.5 Last Meeting: Last night! Sacramento jumped out to a 15-2 lead, but the Suns almost immediately cut that in half, and tied the game early in the third quarter. The teams traded baskets for much of the second half, with DeAaron Fox and Buddy Hield carrying the offensive load for the Kings, who held on to win thanks to some timely offensive rebounding from Richaun Holmes. Competitiveness: Aside from the early flurry from the Kings, these teams were as evenly matched as they come, trading punches for the entire second half. The Suns probably won't shoot 11-44 from three point range again tonight, and the Kings will probably take better care of the basketball. Regardless, we're in for a fascinating rematch of two Western Conference playoff hopefuls. 10/10 Importance: Both the Suns and the Kings are exciting young teams with opportunities to improve on last season, and both figure to end up in that 7-10 seed range in the Western Conference. These two teams won't see each other again in the first half of the season, and the Suns cannot afford to drop back-to-back contests against one of their competitors for the last couple of playoff spots. The Kings, meanwhile, were largely overlooked by fans and writers heading into the season and look poised to outperform expectations. Going 3-0 to start the season would do a lot to quiet the doubters. Regardless, this two game series will likely end up mattering down the road. 8/10 Style Points: The Suns were the talk of the NBA Bubble in August and have continued turning heads with their opening night win against the Mavs. Chris Paul's presence at point guard allows them to run a better offense than "just let Devin Booker chuck as many threes as he wants and hope Ayton rebounds enough to let us eke out a close win". They're still a fun, up-tempo team that shoots lots of threes, and finally play some good defense if that's your thing too. Sacramento announced themselves as a team not to be slept on with their opening night win against the Nuggets (thanks Will Barton), and the trend continued last night. They've attempted the fewest threes of any team through two games this year, and their game plan of Fox driving and everyone crashing the glass gives us an intriguing contrast of styles. Like I mentioned for the Wizards game, the baseball-style series also presents us with interesting questions to answer in this game (how will the Suns adjust on the glass? can the Kings beat the same team twice in a row?), and a nerve-wracking two games between two teams who are very close in talent level and playoff hopes. Perhaps most importantly, Phoenix's broadcast is the only one on League Pass so far that has figured out their on-court audio and actually sounds normal. Keep that one in mind! 8/10 Overall: 8.7/10 I also made a Google Form where you can pick all the winners of today's games... I'll link that below. Thought it would be cool to see how Reddit does predicting the winners. I'll close the form at 3:30 when the Mavs and Clips tip off. I'll try to pare this down length-wise if and when I do this again. Thanks for reading! Pick the winners here!
There are some notable injuries for today's NBA slate that can generate some insane value for some teams, particularly the Wizards. With most players questionable that have games one hour after the main slate starts, let's preview some safer and some ballsy plays of the day. Hopefully, we know the injury news of those 2:00 PM PST games as soon as possible. Raptors
Kyle Lowry (Questionable to Out), Pascal Siakam (Out)
If Lowry is out, there are 2 main players I would choose on the Raptors. Norman Powell is the no brainer play as I expect him to be quite chalky assuming Lowry is out during the Early Only Slate. He will see about 30 mins of playing time which allows him to have tremendous upside. At a 5000 price, he is a great play as I expected him to be 6000. He needs 25 + fantasy points for value and he has achieved this for the 3 games he played 28 + mins in.
Fred VanVleet is the secondary play I would put into consideration. Assuming the game stays close, he will get 35 - 40 mins in a game which is more than enough mins for him to get 5 times value + at his 8000 price. While he did flop last game with Lowry out (dropped 33.5 fantasy points), I expect him to do much better this time as it was just an off day for VanVleet. VanVleet will take over much of the point guard duties while Lowry is out, some increased usage, assists, and scoring is something we should expect.
EDIT - Since Siakam is now out, everybody in the Raptors Rotation is now viable fantasy options. Mainly VanVleet, Powell, Anunoby, Baynes, Boucher, and Johnson are the 6 players I will have in my lineups.
People may be hesitant to play Raptors players because they are going up against the Pacers who are notable for their strong defense. Their defense is good, but I find it overrated, so I would not be discouraged from playing Raptors players.
Pacers
TJ Warren (Out), Caris LeVert (Out)
There are 3 players to watch here. Jeremy Lamb is getting more and more mins each game. He went from playing 19 mins to playing 28 mins the next game. He may eclipse 30 mins as the current 6th man for the Pacers for today's game. He has so far looked really good, so he is a good play for cash games, but I find him a much better play for GPP games. His fantasy points mainly come from scoring, so if his shot is off, your lineup will suffer greatly from it. Considering the Lamb only likes taking shots close to the basket, this may not be a problem at all.
The other play to watch for is Doug McDermott. He is starting as the SF for the Pacers are has had no problem getting to 5 times value + even with Myles Turner on the court. In a similar and opposite way to Lamb, McDermott's fantasy points only come from scoring, however, it comes from 3 point shooting instead of 2 point shooting. This makes McDermott a better GPP play than a cash play, but I would still play him in both fantasy game formats.
TJ McConnell is the last good play to look at here. He is only priced at 4400, but just played 31 mins last game. He has taken over Aaron Holiday's role in the rotation which means TJ McConnell is almost a lock on the Early Only Slate.
Thunder
Al Horford (Out)
This makes Isaiah Roby the main beneficiary here as he replaces Horford in the starting lineup. I would designate Roby as a GPP only play though. He almost always gets into foul trouble every game which severely limits his upside and playing time. On top of that, he is going against the tough matchup of the Clippers and will not play in any garbage time. The Clippers are currently - 1200 money line favorites to win the game and the spread is at - 13.0 points. This game is essentially projected to be a blowout which makes me quite hesitant to play Roby.
You can take a shot at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander here, but he may get fewer mins with a potential Clippers blowout. There are more scoring and rebounding opportunities with Horford out and if you want to play the revenge narrative with SGA facing his former Clippers team, then taking a shot at SGA is not bad at all. He is going to be the clear leader of the team and his 8200 price is not too terrible at all.
Celtics
Jayson Tatum (Out), Payton Pritchard (Out)
With Tatum and Pritchard out, this puts 4 Celtics players in the conversation. Jeff Teague and Kemba Walker have an interesting relationship. If Walker (possibly Smart too) gets more mins, then Teague's mins will not go up in Pritchard's absence. This makes Walker an OK play, but his 6800 price is still a little bit expensive with him coming back from a bad injury. If Teague gets more mins, then he instantly becomes a more viable GPP play at his low 4300 price. Guessing their PG mins split is basically impossible, so I would only play Teague and Walker in a GPP setting only.
With Pritchard out last game, Marcus Smart saw a crazy 39 mins. This gives him absolutely tremendous upside. With him essentially playing as the number 2 option with Walker still getting back into a rhythm from being injured, he is one of the best mid-priced players on the slate. His price is only 6400 which I would have expected to be 7000 +. Definitely have a lot of Marcus Smart in your lineups.
The most common sense player from the Celtics to play is Jaylen Brown. With Tatum out, he becomes the number 1 option. With Pritchard out, he will have the ball in his hands more too. Walker's presence has done nothing to stop Brown from demolishing other teams as he dropped 60.3 fantasy points last game against one of the best defensive teams in the Sixers. I find his 8300 price to be too cheap, so definitely play a lot of Jaylen Brown too.
Magic
Al-Farouq Aminu (Questionable to Out)
If Aminu is playing tomorrow, then he would a total shot in the dark GPP play only. I have no idea if he even gets mins (even though he should). He should definitely get mins ahead of Gary Clark, but the question is whether or not he will siphon the mins from James Ennis III and possibly Dwayne Bacon. He is at the minimum 3500 price, and Aminu taking all of Clark's mins and some of Ennis's mins might let him pay 20 - 25 mins. This should give him enough upside in a GPP game only.
Hawks
Trae Young (Questionable), De'Andre Hunter (Questionable)
There are quite a few players to look out for on the Hawks if Young, Hunter, or both are out. If both are out, Hill, Rondo, Goodwin, Reddish, Huerter, and Gallinari all instantly become more viable plays. If just Young is out, Rondo, Goodwin, Reddish, and Huerter all become viable plays. If just Hunter is out, Hill, Reddish, Huerter, and Gallinari all become viable plays.
The mins split between Rajon Rondo and Brandon Goodwin will be up to guesswork if Young is out. I would rather play Rondo, but he still may see limited mins. Rondo is ahead of Goodwin in the rotation, so we need to wait for what the starting Hawks lineup will be. If Rondo starts, I will be all over him. If Goodwin starts, I will still play Rondo but not as much. I would not be opposed to playing both PG's, but I view Rondo as more of a cash play and Goodwin as more of a GPP play.
Cam Reddish and Kevin Huerter are great plays too. Both have great upside but can have games where they flop and do terribly. With that said, I am not opposed to playing them in cash games at all. With Young, Hunter, or both being out, they will be direct beneficiaries of getting the ball more in their hands. Do not hesitate at all to play these 2 guys.
Danilo Gallinari is a GPP play only. His mins are unpredictable as of now and him getting only 14 mins again like last game will screw your lineups up at his 4800 price.
Solomon Hill is another GPP only play. He may see his mins uptick in the 20's with the Hawks injuries, but I am not completely certain. If Gallinari gets more mins, then I would expect Hills mins to decline. Mainly focus on Rondo, Goodwin, Reddish, and Hueter for the best Hawks plays.
Wizards
Raul Neto (Questionable), Russell Westbrook (Questionable), Deni Avdija (Out), Davis Bertans (Out), Troy Brown Jr (Out), Rui Hachimura (Out), Ish Smith (Out), Moritz Wagner (Out)
This is where you may want to have 4 players from the same team in your lineups. The Wizards' active roster is completely cut dry. There are a metric TON of options from this team to play. Literally, every player on the Wizards is all viable plays until further lineup news. Assuming Neto and Westbrook are out, the Wizards' active roster will consist of Beal, Winston, Robinson, Matthews, Bonga, Gill, Lopez, Len, and Bell. The Wizards rotation has been as little as 7 players and as many as 10 players. It is quite difficult to predict what their rotation will be exactly, but anybody that is starting is instantly the first priority to play from the Wizards.
On the assumption that only Raul Neto plays and Russell Westbrook is out, Neto will be somebody to play a lot of. He will get the starting role and will get the bulk of the PG mins as Cassius Winston and Jerome Robinson are just not good players compared to him. This means that Winston will most likely be out of the rotation. Robinson will play backup PG, so he is a good play too.
On the assumption that Raul Neto is out and Russell Westbrook plays, somebody is going to have to be the backup PG to Westbrook. It may either be Winston or Robinson. I would lean towards Robinson, but Robinson may start as the starting SG pushing Beal to SF. I play a lot of Robinson, but I will back off of Winston entirely as I just do not trust his mins in this specific scenario. I would still be playing both Beal and Westbrook too.
On the assumption that Raul Neto and Russell Westbrook play, Westbrook is an amazing play too (even with Bradley Beal on the court). He is going to need to do everything for this team and fill up the stat sheet with so many players absent from the Wizards. This means that Neto will play backup PG which makes me more hesitant to play him. I may play a little bit of him, but that is it. This means that Robinson may not play at all. He still may play backup or even start as an SG instead pushing Beal to SF. Watch for lineup news related to him because that will make him a great play for the day. I would still be playing both Beal and Westbrook too.
On the assumption that both Raul Neto and Russell Westbrook are out, all of the Wizards active players instantly become good plays in my opinion. Because it is quite common sense to know who are the best plays and who are not for the Wizards, I will just list the best plays instead from best to worst assuming both Neto and Westbrook are out. The order is Bradley Beal, Garrison Matthews, Jerome Robinson, Robin Lopez, Isaac Bonga, Anthony Gill, Jordan Bell, Alex Len, and Cassius Winston.
My advice for the 4 main players (from best to worst plays) to have in your lineups (if you want to play 4 players from the Wizards in your lineups) assuming . . .
Neto Plays, Westbrook Out - Beal, Neto, Matthews, Lopez
Neto Out, Westbrook Plays - Beal, Westbrook, Matthews, Robinson
Neto Out, Westbrook Out - Beal, Matthews, Robinson, Lopez
Spurs
Dejounte Murray (Questionable)
There are 4 players to choose from if Murray is out. DeMar DeRozan is the obvious first choice as he will get more usage, assists, scoring, and rebounds in Murray's absence. DeRozan is at an AMAZING price of only 7700. If Murray is out, I am going to be all over him. He is one of the best SG options for this slate, and do not pass up on him if Murray is out. Even with Murray playing, DeRozan is still a great SG play.
Keldon Johnson is another great play for the Spurs. Murray's absence is going to allow him to score and rebound at higher rates. His 6600 price is quite high for my liking, but with Murray's absence, he should be able to get that 5 times + value.
Patty Mills is one of the best cheap plays of the slate assuming Murray is out. When Murray was out last game, Mills' mins skyrocketed from around 23 mins to 36 mins. His fantasy points are only reliant on his 3 point scoring, but he will be able to chuck several 3 point shots up if he gets 36 mins again. At his extremely low price of 4000, he can EASILY hit 5 times + value.
Lonnie Walker is another good cheap play for the Spurs. He most likely will not get an uptick in mins with Murray out, but he will get more scoring and rebounding opportunities. He is only 4200 and I would definitely play him in GPP games only, not cash games. He can flop for 5.6 fantasy points like he did against the Warriors 2 games ago. His inconsistencies alone make him a GPP only play for me.
An added bonus for the 4 players I listed above is the fact that the Wizards are TRASH at defense. They rank 29th in defensive rating and with a metric ton of their players out for this slate, their defense will only get much worse. What this means is that the Spurs are effectively going up against the worst defensive team in the league. Another added bonus is that this will be a fast-paced game. The Wizards are ranked 1st in pace (I do not expect that to change even with a bunch of players out) and the Spurs are actually ranked 10th in pace. People often think of the Spurs as some old, slow team but they are surprisingly not.
Assuming Bullock is out, I would just play whoever takes his starting role in the Knicks rotation. Will that be Burks, Quickley, or Rivers if he plays? Tom Thibodeau always makes his players' mins a mystery besides Randle, Barrett, and Robinson outside of foul trouble. He is quite unpredictable and tends to ride the hot hand a lot which makes me quite nervous to play the Knicks role players. My assumption is Burks and Quickley will get the uptick in mins regardless if Rivers is out or not.
If Quickley starts, Burks is still a viable play. If Burks starts, however, I will not be playing any Quickley or Rivers (if he is playing) at all. Thibodeau does not like playing any rookies in the first place (as evident with Nerlens Noel getting all of the mins over Obi Toppin) which is why I am quite hesitant to play Quickley in this specific situation.
Trailblazers
Jusuf Nurkic (Out), CJ McCollum (Out)
While Rodney Hood sounds like an enticing option with McCollum out, I am completely staying off of him for today's slate. This is simply because he is extremely inconsistent, has his fantasy points only come from 3 point scoring, is coming off a terrible Achilles Injury, and is only playing around 25 mins a game. He is priced too high at 5000 and I would rather play other Blazers' players.
Enes Kanter would be the logical play with Nurkic out, but like Rodney Hood, he is simply just too expensive at 6500. Kanter is seeing around 27 - 28 mins a game which is good enough for his upside along with the Knicks revenge narrative (if you believe that), but I just find the Lopez brothers, Mitchell Robinson, and Bismack Biyombo to be better Center plays for today's slate. All 4 of them are much cheaper than Kanter too.
Somebody to have on your fantasy radar is Gary Trent Jr. He completely flopped only dropping 6.1 fantasy points in his 23 mins last game, but he is priced at only 3600. This means he is a GPP play only with his low price + inconsistency + moderate upside.
The most common sense play for the Trailblazers is Damian Lillard. I would not put it past him to drop 80 + fantasy points in some game with CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic out. The dude literally dropped 65.9 fantasy points in 28 MINS against the Timberwolves WITH Nurkic and McCollum playing. If he played 35 mins that game, he for sure would have had 80 + fantasy points. I think he has the second-highest upside of the entire slate (behind Bradley Beal with Russell Westbrook out), and he is one of the best PG plays of the slate. He is a great cheaper pivot from Trae Young or Russell Westbrook. Even with the amazing defense of Elfrid Payton, I do not think it matters if Damian Lillard is the person he has to guard.
Good Plays from Teams without Critical Players Out
Clippers - Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka
Cavaliers - None
Hornets - Bismack Biyombo, PJ Washington
Magic - Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic
Yesterday was another interesting day in the NBA. There were so many guys that absolutely crushed their value, and a lot of them were really highly owned. Today doesn't seem to have the same number of players that will be resting/sitting out, so I really doubt we will see anyone with ownership like yesterday. Levert came in at 70% owned in a contest with over 200k on Fanduel. The winner of that contest didn't have a single player with less than 11% ownership either! That's wild! Im going to mix it up again with this post today, as there are wayyyy too many different ways to build a lineup. I'll be briefly breaking down each game, and providing some plays I like in there. 7 out of the 10 games are projected to stay within 5 points, which makes predicting player minutes and game script easier, so there should be a lot of really good plays out there today. Here we go *Warriors V Pistons *. Line: GSW -4.5 Total 226.0 The Pistons are expected to have Blake Griffin and D-Rose back today, so don't get too excited about some of that Pistons value from yesterday. It's not impossible that this game turns into a shootout, as neither team has showed much defensive prowess at all. I won't be looking for value plays from this game, but the STUDS seem to be in a good spot. STEPH CURRY ($9400) has opened the season shooting 38% from the field 26% from 3!! You can argue that defenses focus more on him without a strong supporting cast, but this is Steph were talking about here. If I use Steph tonight, I will definitely run it back with 1 or 2 Pistons as well. Blake played 35 and 44 minutes in his two games and they rested him last night. This price is pretty low for him considering he's averaging 10 3pt attempts a game right now, and has yet to collect more than 7 rebounds. He's facing a really weak Warriors frontcourt, and can provide some value at a price lower than the other studs at this position. Plumlee, DRose, and Grant are all priced at 6k or below which is too low IMHO Raptors v Sixers Line: PHI -1.5 Total 218.5 This should be a great basketball game. Both teams are looking to find their groove early in the year, so I'm expecting an intense, physical, defensive game. Those types of games aren't necessarily great for us Fantasy players though. It probably won't be the lowest scoring game on the slate, but it definitely won't be the highest. Both teams also appear to have their full lineups for tonight, so I'm not seeing any really strong value here. I will be fading this game from a fantasy standpoint this evening Celtics v Pacers Line: IND -1.0 Total: 218.0 This game is predicted to be almost identical to the game above, and these teams just played against each other two days ago! Something of note from that game was that the Pacers were without OLADIPO, and ran an 8-man rotation. He is a high usage player, so I will be waiting to see how their team flows before I go back to using guys like SABONIS and BROGDON. The Celtics team is priced properly for their mins and usage, so I'm not really getting much interest for their side. I will also be fading this game from a fantasy standpoint this evening Bulls v Wizards Line: WAS -6.5 Total 237.5!! Here comes the hammer. This is the highest game total of the evening by 10 points, so ownership should be fairly centered around these plays. News to watch out for is LAURI MARKANNEN. If he doesn't play, the debut of THADDEUS YOUNG ($3800) becomes really, really, intriguing. My guy COBY WHITE at $5900 should also provide a high floor play, with potential to bust through the ceiling. On the Washington side, BEAL and WESTBROOK are obviously good plays, but don't forget about THOMAS BRYANT at only $5200. He should see upwards of 30 minutes for the 3rd time this season, and can thus smash this price. He gets blocks, rebounds, hits threes, etc. Not a bad play here at all. Cavs v Knicks Line: CAVS -3.0 Total 216.0 This game scares me. Both have been a bit better than expected to start the season, and this is one of the few games tonight with some major injury issues. The Cavs are missing Love, Porter, and Okoro from their rotation and the Knicks are without DSJ, Rivers, Burks, and Toppin from theirs. There's some good value here. RANDLE $7700, BARRETT $6200, and PAYTON $4800 should control the usage for the Knicks, but don't be surprised if KEVIN KNOX $3600 breaks his value here. Cleveland should be a little more spread out with their usage, but guys like COLIN SEXTON $6800, and ANDRE DRUMMOND $9400 could absolutely crush their price here. DANTE EXUM $3600 saw in the mid 20s of minutes last game, and is in a good spot to do so again here. That's a good recipe for breaking this min price value. Bucks v Heat Line: MIL -5.5 Total 226.5 Jimmy Butler looks to be sitting for this game, which makes the Heat plays pretty intriguing. TYLER HERRO $4500 and DUNCAN ROBINSON $4600 have already been seeing over 30 minutes a game, so they're virtual locks to do so again. I like HERRO a good bit more today, since he does a bit more to fill the stat sheet. DRAGIC $6900 and BAM $8200 should see the majority of usage, but their prices are pretty high for me. I'd much rather play JRUE HOLIDAY $6400 than Middleton or Giannis today from the Bucks, as their prices also make it difficult, and he's cheaper than DRAGIC. Magic v Thunder Line: ORL -6.0 Total 218.0 Thunder come off a tough loss last night to the Jazz, and the Magic have looked pretty strong to start the season. AL Horford is out tonight, and George Hill is most likely out as well. Cheap guys like HAMIDOU DIALLO $3900, THEO MALEDON $3500, and MIKE MUSCALA $4100, could see a boost in their minutes into the mid 20s, and I like that. SGA $8000, DORT $5100, and BAZLEY $6200 are also very strong plays, but should grab some heavy ownership. The Magic team is healthy, and much more balanced offensively. None of their prices really stick out, either, so I will likely avoid them. I really like one of DIALLO or MALEDON to break 25 fantasy points tonight if George Hill sits. Denver v Sacramento Line: DEN -2.0 Total 227.0 Denver is on the second night of a back2back but were able to give their studs some really solid rest last night while giving the Rockets a beatdown. JAMAL MURRAY is too low at $6600 for me to ignore, especially since I'm looking toward playing this game as a stack with him and JOKIC $10300 along with the high floor play BUDDY HIELD $5400 on the other side. This game is the next highest total behind the Bulls/Wizards, and I really like that 2-1 stack a lot to combine for well over 120 fantasy points tonight. RICHAUN HOLMES at $4700 also provides a really safe floor for a guy at that price if you are looking to spend down at C today. Minnesota v LA Clippers Line: LAC-11 Total 226.0 I won't be touching this game with a 10 foot pole today. After their shitshow of a game vs Dallas, I look for the Clippers to bounce back hard vs this Minnesota team without KAT. If they keep this game close, somehow, and all the expensive guys get their value, I'll gladly shake their hands and move on to tomorrow. There are much better plays on the slate today. Phoenix v New Orleans Line: PHX -2.5 Total 221.5 Phoenix comes off splitting a serious with the Kings that saw them struggle a bit on the rebounds. ZION at $8600, and BI $8400 can still get to their numbers, but I'd rather play STEVEN ADAMS at $5400 tonight. He's been steadily seeing 30 minutes, and should be able to dominate inside tonight. The Suns have seen strong wing play, but are bringing back DARIO SARIC tonight, so guys like BRIDGES and JOHNSON should see a few less shots. DEVIN BOOKER at $7500 has been a little disappointing to start the year, but is way more than capable of crushing this price here. He's my favorite play from this game. Best of luck tonight! Hope some of this info clears a huge slate up for you all! Kitty
[OC] Meet the Clippers: A Fan's Guide to Knowing What You're Seeing
Meet the Clippers: A Fan's Guide to Knowing What You're Seeing
Hey everyone! You're probably staring at the wall of text like this. Please, let me explain... The following post was inspired by an idea from your fellow Dallas Mavs fan u/chronoquairium and the kind recommendation of users at LAClippers. Disclaimer - I’m no expert on the matter. Not even close. I’m just a fan who has watched a lot of Clippers basketball over the years and likes to do casual write-ups in our sub’s post-game threads whenever I’m free. Ultimately, the goal of this is to simply introduce the opposing fans to the general expectations when facing the Clippers and provide insight into how they play. I hope this helps!
The Players
Kawhi Leonard (Jersey #2, Position = wing): What’s there to say about The Klaw that most NBA fans don’t already know? He’s the man.
(positives +): Kawhi is quietly having a career year offensively. Averaging 27 pts on 47% FG / 38% 3PT / 89% FT shooting splits in 32 min/game. He can do it all and from anywhere on the court. Shoots well from deep, master of the mid-range, triple-threat stance, and patented post-up fadeaway, uses his strength and length to bully most defenders in the paint, and draws fouls at an elite rate garnering 7 FT attempts per game. Although he’s been load-managing this year, it’s pretty clear that whenever Kawhi wants to “turn it on,” he does just that. Often in the 4th quarter he’s suddenly faster, stronger, more aggressive getting to his spots. Notably this season, on a roster without a traditional point guard but full of capable scorers, Kawhi has also become a very good playmaker for his position (career high 5 ast/gm), using his gravity to make the simple pass to the open man. Last but not least, he’s as fearless in the clutch as any player in the league. We all know “the shot.”
(negatives -): I’m going to nitpick here, because Kawhi’s defense is obviously a positive. But considering his high standards, he’s taken it relatively easy this season when conserving energy. He’s not immune to a speedy guard blowing by him on the perimeter or a failed miscommunication leading to a wide open three. However, when Kawhi wants to turn it on, he’s still capable of spectacular defensive plays, whether it’s snatching the ball from a helpless player at the top of the key or a timely block at the rim, etc. Everyone expects him to turn this up for the playoffs, but the question is simply “how much can he do?” Offensively, he sometimes gets caught forcing a bad shot at the rim while trying to draw a foul, and is averaging a career-high 2.6 turnovers with his increased playmaking responsibility.
Paul George (13, wing): After an MVP-caliber regular season last year that ended in injury and post-season disappointment, PG will be looking to dispel the “Playoff P” narrative and remind everyone why he’s considered one of the league’s best talents.
(+): PG, like Kawhi to a lesser degree, can do almost everything on both ends of the court. 22 pts, 6 reb, and 4 asts is nothing to scoff at. However, PG’s main game-breaking skill, in which he surpasses his star running mate, is his 3 point shooting. Whether it’s catch-and-shoot or off-the-dribble coming off a high screen, PG will let it fly from all around the arc. With his skill and height, they are almost always clean looks, and it has resulted in an efficient 41% on a whopping 8 3PA/gm this year. Additionally, when he’s aggressive he makes driving to the rim look easy and it often opens up his shooting or vice versa. Defensively, he’s one of the best at navigating around screens and uses his length to ball-hawk and deter passing lanes. Second only to Pat Bev, he’ll often cover the toughest perimeter assignment of the night. Notably, if any Clipper has benefited from the quarantine to get healthy and reacclimated to his role, it’s him.
(-): Struggled with offensive inconsistencies during the season, though since returning to the bubble healthy he’s been mostly on point. The mid-range game has been shaky and he attempts to mitigate it in favor of 3’s and layups. Additionally he’s not very good at using his length to draw fouls, especially at the rim, and sometimes gets caught using his off arm to push off his defender. Defensively, sometimes he relies a little too much on reaching, and can put himself and the team out of position.
Patrick Beverley (21, guard): Ahhh Bev...The quintessential “hate him if he’s against you, love him if he’s with you” player.
(+): Bev doesn’t need to score to have his imprint all over the game. His goal is to try to live in the jersey (and the head) of the opposing team’s star perimeter player. Defensively he’s a pest. He plays tight, physical defense, mixed in with plenty of reaching and exaggeration of contact to draw offensive fouls. Furthering the mind games, he loves engaging in banter, and if he can take an opponent’s focus away from the immediate game, then that’s a win. More than an “intangible player” Bev is an excellent rebounder from the guard position, and has a nose for coming up with that “one offensive rebound” that swings a game. Furthermore, he understands his role in the offense, mostly initiating plays and sticking to catch-and-shoot 3’s mixed with occasional drives to the rim. More than a capable shooter, his current 39% from deep actually belies his even hotter shooting in the latter half of the season.
(-): Lack of true point-guard skills limits his ability to create for others outside of set plays. Offensively, he’ll sometimes find himself on an island, whether forced to shoot a 3-pointer off the dribble, or rush a driving layup at the rim. Defensively, his constant reaching can get him into early foul-trouble and takes him out of the game.
Ivica Zubac (40, big): Underrated young big who succeeds at a lot of the “little things”, looking to prove himself after struggling mightily in last year’s playoffs.
(+): Zu is a true 7-footer and he plays like it. He sets very wide and solid screens to constantly free up his teammates. An excellent rim protector within 0-4 feet. Very solid in 1v1 and help defense. Quick enough feet that he can recover from nearby dribble penetration and challenge at the rim. Very good rebounder who eats up plenty of space down low, and often positions himself well for both defensive and offensive boards. Offensively, Zu is an opportunistic rim runner in transition and a capable pick and roll player in the half-court. He's a big target with soft hands, and can finish in a variety of ways at the rim with high efficiency.
(-) His biggest flaw, which was exposed in last year’s Warriors series, is his struggle to guard the high-screen and switch versus elite guards who can shoot from deep. Like most big men, Zu’s natural instinct is to sag and protect dribble penetration in the paint. Instead, what often happens is the opponent will use Zu’s man as a screen, knowing that Zu won’t step up, and then walk right into a wide open 3. The other significant “flaw,” is that he’s been limited in playing only ~18 min/gm this season, and rarely in critical 4th quarters. The main reason being a lack of spacing, especially with Trez seeing big minutes, though to Zu’s credit Doc has given him longer runs during the bubble and he’s responded productively. The big question is “Will this continue in the playoffs?”
Marcus Morris (31, wing): A mid-season acquisition brought in to ease the stars’ offensive workload, Mook is out to prove that he can play well on a championship contender.
(+): A capable scorer from all over the court with 3’s, mid-range post-ups, and at the rim. Can isolate, create shots for himself, a very lowkey playmaker and shoots a solid +80% at the line. Defenses have to respect him and that takes pressure off of Kawhi & PG to have to produce all the time. Capable of doing just enough on D, but most comfortable playing stout and physical in the post.
(-): Not a versatile defender, and can be caught out of position. Mook has also struggled to find his offensive rhythm since the trade, most notably regressing from a 44% 3PT on good volume with the Knicks, to shooting only 31% with the Clips. Part of this is due to his adjustment from a green light go-to scorer with NYK (~20ppg) to 4th or 5th option struggling to temper his shots with LAC (~10ppg). To Mook’s credit he’s seemingly found his stroke in the bubble shooting 38% from deep. Can he continue to keep this up?
Lou Williams (23, guard): The most prolific bench scorer in NBA history, 3x 6MOTY and one half of the dynamic bench duo. Also, a well-known lemon-pepper wing enthusiast.
(+): Pure scorer who plays at an unnatural “start/stop rhythm,” making difficult shots look dependably routine. 99% of the time If he goes left it’s his patented fall away jumper, if he goes right it’s a driving layup. Utilizes a convincing pump fake that inexperienced players tend to bite on, and knows just how to contort his slight body to create contact and get to the FT line. Efficient catch and shoot from 3. Willing to take and make big shots (see last year’s Warriors series). Good PnR player, especially with Trez. Comfortable with pick and pop alongside stretch bigs for 3. Can split weak double teams and make the correct pass to the open shooter. Surprisingly good at anticipating passing lanes and lazy post-entry passes.
(-): A big defensive liability when isolated 1v1, especially anywhere in the paint. Sometimes gets caught ball watching and prone to backdoor cuts from the corner shooter. Can be overwhelmed into turnovers or tough shots with long/athletic defenders and physical double teams. If enough calls don’t go his way, he can get frustrated.
Montrezl Harrell (5, big): As physical of a player the league has to offer. Trez is coming in cold off an extended absence from the bubble, but like a hungry pitbull the 6MOTY candidate is fiending to be unleashed.
(+) Trez’s high-energy and intensity masks the skill that he actually possesses. He knows how to body defenders to move them off their position, almost always goes up strong for the secure 2-handed dunk, and uses his athleticism and length to draw fouls at a high rate. On the “finesse” side, he’s a capable isolation scorer with a bevy of face-up and post moves in the paint, including a sweeping hook across the lane. The “vigor” to Lou’s “velvet,” he’s dangerous in the PnR as a finisher and playmaker catching on the short roll and finding guys in the corner. Defensively, at only 6’7’’ he relies on his long 7’4’’ wingspan as a help defender to get weakside blocks and his quickness to draw charges tallying the 4th most in the NBA.
(-) Sometimes his tunnel vision for the bucket gets him into trouble, his aggression sometimes leading to ill-advised drives and charges of his own. Despite a high FT rate he’s still only a 65% FT shooter. As an undersized big he can be isolated and scored on by true centers 1v1 and out-rebounded in the paint.
Jamychal Green (4, wing): A holdover from the Grit N’ Grind Grizzlies, JMyke brings toughness and shooting as a key role player for the squad.
(+): He does all the little things that often don’t show up in the box score, including screening, boxing out, hustling for loose balls and spacing the floor. Shoots the majority of his shots with confidence in good rhythm from deep, hitting 39% on ~4 3PA/gm. Unafraid to isolate on the occasional mismatch in the paint. When paired as the de facto big alongside the starters, the Clips can go 5 out with little drop off on either end of the floor.
(-): Limited offensively, but he understands that. His only real consistent fault is his knack for traveling whenever he pump fakes and decides to drive to the rim.
Landry Shamet (20, guard): Talented young sniper who has struggled with injuries and inconsistencies this year.
(+): A confident shooter with refined off-ball movement using off-ball screens and running into open space (a la JJ Redick) with a very quick shooting form from catch to release. Showed flashes this season as a ball handler driving to the rim and made a significant jump in FT shooting to 86%.
(-): While still an above average 38% 3PT shooter, it is down significantly from 45% last season. This is partly due to untimely injuries, one of which he’s currently sidelined with a foot sprain. Defensively, his slight build and inexperience allows him to be bullied by opposing scorers.
Reggie Jackson (1, guard): Mid-season arrival from buyout market, Reggie is trying to find his role as a key bench contributor.
(+): Confident ball-handler to pair with Lou in the backcourt. Since arriving in LAC he’s been shooting a scorching 41% from deep on ~4 3PA/gm, many of which are wide open. Opportunistic driver who can take advantage of openings and finish at the rim with skill.
(-): His aggression can sometimes lead to tunnel vision where he’ll take ill-advised shots over making the easier, correct pass to an open teammate. He’s a sub-par point-of-attack defender, and often finds himself just out of position, which is especially problematic when alongside Lou and/or Sham on the bench.
Patrick Patterson (54, wing): Afterthought offseason acquisition with surprising productivity.
(+): Another player who understands his limited role. Good screen setter, moves the ball, and is savvy at finding open space on the arc, where he’s shooting a cool 39% on 3 3PA/gm. Occasionally takes advantage of mismatches at the rim. Solid defender.
(-): Could probably hustle a little more, but like JMyke, there’s not much to fault. He’s just a limited player.
Rodney McGruder (19, guard): Nicknamed “The Scrapper” because he always hustles, does the dirty work, and if we’re being honest, is a familiar face in garbage time minutes.
(+): Attentive defender with good hustle and reads at the point-of-attack. Has a driving floater in his bag. Notably, he’s looked sharp since entering the bubble. “Thinks” the game well and Doc seems to appreciate that.
(-): Struggled mightily from 3pt this season, shooting a mere 27%. To his credit, he’s worked on it during quarantine and it yielded a recent game winner vs Portland, but still a work in progress.
Joakim Noah (55, big): Former DPOY, highly-savvy veteran big at the end of the bench.
(+): At 35 years young, Noah still embodies the hustle mentality. Does the dirty work with screens, box outs, and battling on the boards. Still an exceptional passer from the center position.
(-): Physically limited since returning from achilles surgery. The dip in athleticism gets him out of defensive position and into foul trouble. Also, to no surprise a very limited offensive player.
Terance Mann (14, guard): Promising young rookie and developing fan-favorite who probably won’t see much real time.
(+): A 6’5’’ SF in college transitioning to a PG in the pros, Mann pushes the ball well, is aggressive and strong attacking the rim, and is developing his vision to find open shooters. Excellent rebounder. Committed but inexperienced defender.
(-): Generally lacks experience and is still learning the position. Not yet a confident shooter from 3. Sometimes out of control and leaves his feet when passing.
Amir Coffey (7, wing): Rookie G-league 2-way player with a pun-friendly last name.
(+): Highly athletic lefty who can score from various spots on the court. Holds his own defensively with length.
(-) : Like Mann, simply lacks enough experience versus the pros.
Expected Playoff Rotation: Starters are Bev, PG, Kawhi, Mook, Zu. Bench rotation includes Lou, Trez, JMyke, Reggie, Sham, with possible situational minutes for 2Pat and McGruder. Noah is there in case of foul trouble, and the same goes for the young rooks in Mann and Coffey. Of course, all this is subject to players’ availability. Conventional wisdom dictates that playoff rosters shrink to ~8 players. Throughout the season, Doc has comfortably run lineups of all bench players, leaning on both 2nd and 3rd string players to deal with extended injuries / load management within our roster. In the long run it has been successful in limiting the superstars’ minutes/game, but at times it has hurt them as the drop off from without Kawhi/PG, especially defensively, is noticeable. With such a deep roster, it will be interesting to see how much Doc opts to stagger Kawhi and PG and extend their minutes so there is minimal drop off. Still, I would not be surprised if he leans on the roster depth when needed.
The Coach: Doc Rivers
The Prototypical Player’s Coach and great motivator which hides the fact that he’s also very good at X’s and O’s. Under Doc Rivers, everyone understands their roles and it starts with the stars at the top. With Lob City, it was CP3, Blake and DJ. Last year it was Gallinari, Lou Will, and Tobias. This year it’s Kawhi and PG. With each group he’s instituted different schemes that utilize their individual talent, and he trusts them to execute the game plan. With this structure, you don’t see a lot of “fluky” scoring outputs from non-stars, but everyone that sees the floor understands what their role is. Some fans think he’s overly stubborn to a fault with regards to his rotations and perceived lack of in-game adjustments (though I don’t necessarily agree.) He places a lot of trust in the vets and believes heavily in his schemes. Predictably, you can expect a lot of Kawhi & PG in the starting lineup, and a lot of Lou & Trez from the bench. Speaking of Doc’s schemes.... Offense - Screening is Fundamental!: The majority of the Clippers offense is initiated at the elbows and at the top of the arc in a spread pick and roll system with the express purpose of 1) generating mismatches for the players to score or 2) drive and kick to open spot up shooters. It all starts with a screen...
Sometimes it’s the classic PnR. -- Ex: Lou has the ball, Trez screens for him, and they roll to the basket.
Sometimes it’s a variation on the PnR. -- Ex: Kawhi curling around a big Zu screen, and then catching the pass as he moves downhill into a number of options where he can choose to shoot, attack an opening in the paint, roll and feed the big man, or continue moving into a secondary action.
Many of these variations start at the elbows, with an off-ball screen used to shed the primary defender and receive the ball with momentum and space -- Ex: PG curling off a double-screen and stepping into a catch and shoot 3.
Then consider the many variations on top of these simple screening principles such as:
multiple off-ball screens
utilizing guards to screen and force unconventional mismatches
starting the screener with the ball to initiate handoffs
classic pick and pop as the screener steps back for a catch and shoot 3
variations of pick and pop with a target as a decoy -- Ex: Kawhi coming off the screen as a decoy, grabbing the attention of the defense with his gravity, allowing the screener to step out for a wide open catch and shoot 3
and much more...
When all else fails, Isolation!: If these major actions are defended well, the Clippers can turn to ISO, with Kawhi in the post, or PG and Lou on the perimeter where they’re free to “go to work” creating on the fly for themselves or for others. It’s a luxury to have all 3 capable scorers and playmakers anywhere on the court, and the Clippers lean into them. Defense - Switching, switching, and more switching?: Doc prefers to let assistant coach Rex Kalamian handle this end. Primarily, the Clips love to switch a lot at the point of attack. This helps when they have enough of their long, versatile wing defenders on the floor, and it hurts when they don’t. Generally it is a point of consternation among fans, as the players generally have enough talent to not switch and instead play man to man. In theory, it’s simple. Try to prevent dribble penetration, use length to stay connected to your man in help situations and close out on shooters. When the team is communicating, especially on the back line, they can really lock it down. Whether or not they can do it consistently is a whole other question. Sometimes they’ll send double teams against superstars, and the results vary depending on how committed they are at doing it. Every now and they’ll mix in an in-game adjustments to change an unwanted rhythm, including:
Zone - to prevent dribble penetration at the sacrifice of open shooters
Full court press - to put some pressure on a star ball handler
Blitzing/trapping the ball handler - if they’re getting killed by a talented shooter in high screen scenarios above the arc
Team Strengths
The two-way superstars: See Kawhi + PG’s player descriptions.
Bench depth, starring Lou and Trez: The co-6MOTY candidates have a special connection that’s been going for 3 years running. Both are 18+ ppg scorers, and their PnR is one of the most challenging things to defend in the NBA. JMyke, Reggie and a healthy Shamet are all capable spot up shooters and scorers in their own right. If foul trouble occurs, they can go further down the bench and find someone who can contribute.
Half-Court dominance: They’re capable of playing faster paced in transition against weaker defenses, but generally their bread is buttered in the half-court where they can get set. The overall result is tied for 2nd in NETRTG (+6.3), 2nd in OFFRTG (113.3) and 5th in DEFRTG(106.9).
Free throws and 3’s: The Clippers offense consistently generates two of the most statistically productive shots in basketball, the free throw and the 3 pointer. They lead the league in FTA, bolstered by Kawhi, Lou and Trez. Moreover, theoretically everyone that will see consistent minutes (outside of Zu and Trez) can shoot the 3 at an above average rate. It’s a luxury that can not be understated. They’re 6th in the league shooting 37% 3PT as a team.
Defending the paint: Contrary to popular opinion, the Clippers actually do a good job protecting the rim, Much of this has to do with Zubac’s length, Trez’s positioning, and the handful of long wings that come in to help. The problem is inconsistency, whether due to lack of effort or limited minutes from their best rim protector in Zu, but more often than not they’re sturdy, holding opponents to the 6th lowest paint ppg in the league.
3-point defense: Contrary to Clippers fans' opinion, they are also good defenders of the arc at 35.6%, settling within the Top 5 team 3PT defenses throughout the year.
Championship coaching experience: Doc has won one in Boston. Asst. Coach Ty Lue has won one in Cleveland, and two as a player with the Lakers. Asst. Coach Sam Cassell has won 3 as a player including one in Boston and two in Houston. Even Asst. Coach Brendan O’Connor has one from Detroit. It’s an experienced staff.
Clutch playmaking: It helps to have stars who are confident scorers and playmakers under pressure, with Kawhi being the main man. To Doc’s credit, he’s also one of the better ATO (after time out) play callers which has won us several games in the past.
Team Weaknesses
Health & Availability: The Clippers are deep, but they’ve had to rely on it far more than they wanted to this season as they’ve rarely been 100% healthy. Kawhi missed 15 games, PG missed 24, Bev missed 21, Sham missed 19, and the list goes on. The result is a team has been inconsistent in X’s and O’s familiarity and energy throughout the year. And as the playoffs begin, Bev is coming off of a strained calf, Sham nursing a sprained foot, and Trez is just coming out of quarantine. Can they get everyone together at the same time?
Turnover prone: The lack of a single “true” point guard to consistently organize them hurts, as a lot of their primary ball-handlers have had to learn to make plays through growing pains. The result is a sub-par AST/TO ratio, 19th in the league.
Foul trouble: The Clippers brand of defense sometimes gets them into trouble. They like to switch everything, body up opponents, reach and jab at the ball, and sometimes play overly aggressive and out of position. These things can get them into foul trouble, especially when they’re undisciplined and not communicating well. They’re a bottom 10 team in fouls per game.
Ball watching and Defensive Inconsistencies: The team sometimes falls into a lull in which they focus too much on the ball. When this happens their defense suffers as they become prone to cutters and fail to box out and end their defensive possession with a rebound. Ultimately, it’s not a killer weakness, as they’re actually a decent rebounding team (3rd in total reb/game and 10th in both offensive and defensive rebound %), but they could be scary good if given more attention to detail.
Bench defense: While great at scoring, the trio of Lou, Reggie, and Sham, struggle mightily against talented and/or aggressive perimeter scorers. When they are on the floor together, any one of them can be a prime target for opposing offenses.
Stars’ questionable past playoff experience: Kawhi you can go... I’m looking specifically at PG, Lou and Trez. Which PG shows up? The one who led his team in multiple ECF battles against Lebron’s Heatles or the one who struggled in back to back 1st round exits in OKC (though I admit not entirely his fault). Lou has several playoff experiences in his career, but he’s only been a serious focal point once last year vs the Warriors. Can he lock-in and deliver deep into the playoffs? Same goes for Montrezl whose first and only real playoff appearance was last year.
Team Habits
Inconsistent lineups: Again, this is partly due to lack of availability and continuity this season, but even if everyone is healthy, the Clippers don’t really have a “5 Best” lineup. Kawhi, PG and Bev are the team’s 3 most flexible players. But who rounds out the closing lineup? Do you go small and offensive with Lou and Trez and give up some defense? Do you go big with rim protection in Zu and give up spacing? Or do you go somewhere in between with Mook and JMyke who are not especially proficient at either end?
Deferring to our superstar ISOs when things get bogged down: Despite having a well-oiled offensive system in place, sometimes it’s disrupted and the game just slows down. The Clips often lean on their stars to bail them out, which sometimes turns the role players into passive bystanders, while other times the stars come through and deliver.
Play to the level of competition: I think most fans of the NBA believe their team does this, haha... but the Clippers do have a handful of bad losses this year to show as evidence. The hope is that they’re consistently “locked in” for the playoffs.
Over-reliance on switching: The Clippers tendency to switch leaves them vulnerable to miscommunication and all sorts of mismatches against a smart offensive team. This becomes especially problematic in closing lineups using defenders that can be exploited.
Series Expectations
Like every playoff series, this comes down to matchups, especially between the superstars on each team. The Mavs hold the highest Offensive Rating in NBA history for a reason. Led by Luka’s scoring and game-breaking passing ability, they are capable of winning any given game simply by getting hot, which they have done quite often this year. The prevailing narrative is that the Clippers pose a direct matchup problem for Luka, which is kind of hard to believe considering he’s averaging ~30 pts/game in their 3 meetings this season. However, what the Clips do well is use their athletic wing defenders to consistently challenge him at the point of attack. Pat Bev, if healthy, would get the primary assignment as he uses his quick feet and fast hands to stay in Luka’s personal space. If not Bev, then PG likely gets the responsibility, using his length and defensive IQ to stay connected. If Luka was a little more quick and elusive towards the rim, more consistent from 3 off the dribble, or more willing to shoot mid-range jumpers, he might be able to overcome the Clippers defense. But more often than not, Luka is forced to make a decision - 1) take a difficult shot from deep or at the rim under pressure and length, 2) make a spectacular pass to an open shooter, or 3) simply give the ball up to someone else and let them try to make a play. The first two options are possible given Luka’s talent, but it’s a lot to ask for consistently. The 3rd option is a win for the defense. Speaking of Luka’s teammates, Kristaps will likely have some big scoring games, and they’ll absolutely need it if they’re going to have a chance at winning. The 3pt shot should consistently be there for KP, given his height and Unicorn ability to shoot from extra deep, made easier by the Clippers' tendency of their bigs to sag in drop coverage. The question is, can his streaky shooting get hot enough to overcome his season average of 35% from 3? And while the Clips historically struggle against versatile, skilled & lengthy bigs who can score and outrebound them in the post (see AD, Embiid, etc.). how much would KP relish that role, embrace the physicality and impose his will on any given night? As for the rest of the team, the Clippers have to ensure that they are disciplined guarding the 3. Admittedly, I have not watched much of the Mavs this year, but I catch enough highlights to know that Seth “The Better” Curry, THJ, DFS, Trey Burke, Kleber and especially the one and only JJ Barea are all capable shooters and can get hot at any time. If the Clippers struggle to defend dribble penetration, and are undisciplined in preventing kick outs to open shooters, I could see the Mavs absolutely catching fire and leveraging the hot hand... (note: quick shout out to Barea for what he did to the Lakers during the 2011 championship run!) Similar to the Clips’ challenge with Luka, the Mavs' big question is “How do they defend Kawhi?” How well can they hinder him from getting to his spots like his patented mid-ranger? DFS and Kleber will do their best, but can they defend him without fouling? Without Powell and WCS, do they have enough big bodies to keep him from getting to the rim? Moreover, can they stop his running-mate in PG from getting clean looks at 3 off the Clippers high screen actions? How well will they recover to all the spot up shooters on the arc? Can they contain the Lou and Trez PnR? Can they keep Zu off the boards? Whose offense will prevail? It’s a lot of tough questions to ask and I’m not sure the Mavs have enough answers on defense to succeed. Nevertheless, the Mavs are still highly talented, well-coached by Carlisle, and I think a reasonable expectation is a very exciting 5-game series highlighted by some incredible shotmaking, highly-aesthetic playmaking and scoring outbursts on both sides. Many are predicting a 4-game sweep, but I personally think the Mavs are too good and capable of hot shooting on any given night to let this be an uncompetitive series. Moreover, as a naturally cautious Clippers fan I personally wouldn’t be surprised if the series went even longer. We’ll just have to wait and see.
End
That’s it! Phew! I hope this provided some food for thought on the Clippers, and I welcome any and all respectable discussion on the upcoming series. Thank you to those who have read this far and thank you again to u/chronoquairium for his format, advice, and patience and for LAClippers for recommending me. Good luck and good health to everyone in the bubble and at home, in quarantine. In the immortal words of The Clipper Bros… “You heard it here first! Have a great time! Turn up! Love you guys! Awesome!”
Meet the Clippers: A Fan's Guide to Knowing What You're Seeing
Hey everyone! You're probably staring at the wall of text like this. Please, let me explain... The following post was inspired by an idea from your fellow Dallas Mavs fan u/chronoquairium and the kind recommendation of users at LAClippers. Disclaimer - I’m no expert on the matter. Not even close. I’m just a fan who has watched a lot of Clippers basketball over the years and likes to do casual write-ups in our sub’s post-game threads whenever I’m free. Ultimately, the goal of this is to simply introduce the opposing fans to the general expectations when facing the Clippers and provide insight into how they play. I hope this helps!
The Players
Kawhi Leonard (Jersey #2, Position = wing): What’s there to say about The Klaw that most NBA fans don’t already know? He’s the man.
(positives +): Kawhi is quietly having a career year offensively. Averaging 27 pts on 47% FG / 38% 3PT / 89% FT shooting splits in 32 min/game. He can do it all and from anywhere on the court. Shoots well from deep, master of the mid-range, triple-threat stance, and patented post-up fadeaway, uses his strength and length to bully most defenders in the paint, and draws fouls at an elite rate garnering 7 FT attempts per game. Although he’s been load-managing this year, it’s pretty clear that whenever Kawhi wants to “turn it on,” he does just that. Often in the 4th quarter he’s suddenly faster, stronger, more aggressive getting to his spots. Notably this season, on a roster without a traditional point guard but full of capable scorers, Kawhi has also become a very good playmaker for his position (career high 5 ast/gm), using his gravity to make the simple pass to the open man. Last but not least, he’s as fearless in the clutch as any player in the league. We all know “the shot.”
(negatives -): I’m going to nitpick here, because Kawhi’s defense is obviously a positive. But considering his high standards, he’s taken it relatively easy this season when conserving energy. He’s not immune to a speedy guard blowing by him on the perimeter or a failed miscommunication leading to a wide open three. However, when Kawhi wants to turn it on, he’s still capable of spectacular defensive plays, whether it’s snatching the ball from a helpless player at the top of the key or a timely block at the rim, etc. Everyone expects him to turn this up for the playoffs, but the question is simply “how much can he do?” Offensively, he sometimes gets caught forcing a bad shot at the rim while trying to draw a foul, and is averaging a career-high 2.6 turnovers with his increased playmaking responsibility.
Paul George (13, wing): After an MVP-caliber regular season last year that ended in injury and post-season disappointment, PG will be looking to dispel the “Playoff P” narrative and remind everyone why he’s considered one of the league’s best talents.
(+): PG, like Kawhi to a lesser degree, can do almost everything on both ends of the court. 22 pts, 6 reb, and 4 asts is nothing to scoff at. However, PG’s main game-breaking skill, in which he surpasses his star running mate, is his 3 point shooting. Whether it’s catch-and-shoot or off-the-dribble coming off a high screen, PG will let it fly from all around the arc. With his skill and height, they are almost always clean looks, and it has resulted in an efficient 41% on a whopping 8 3PA/gm this year. Additionally, when he’s aggressive he makes driving to the rim look easy and it often opens up his shooting or vice versa. Defensively, he’s one of the best at navigating around screens and uses his length to ball-hawk and deter passing lanes. Second only to Pat Bev, he’ll often cover the toughest perimeter assignment of the night. Notably, if any Clipper has benefited from the quarantine to get healthy and reacclimated to his role, it’s him.
(-): Struggled with offensive inconsistencies during the season, though since returning to the bubble healthy he’s been mostly on point. The mid-range game has been shaky and he attempts to mitigate it in favor of 3’s and layups. Additionally he’s not very good at using his length to draw fouls, especially at the rim, and sometimes gets caught using his off arm to push off his defender. Defensively, sometimes he relies a little too much on reaching, and can put himself and the team out of position.
Patrick Beverley (21, guard): Ahhh Bev...The quintessential “hate him if he’s against you, love him if he’s with you” player.
(+): Bev doesn’t need to score to have his imprint all over the game. His goal is to try to live in the jersey (and the head) of the opposing team’s star perimeter player. Defensively he’s a pest. He plays tight, physical defense, mixed in with plenty of reaching and exaggeration of contact to draw offensive fouls. Furthering the mind games, he loves engaging in banter, and if he can take an opponent’s focus away from the immediate game, then that’s a win. More than an “intangible player” Bev is an excellent rebounder from the guard position, and has a nose for coming up with that “one offensive rebound” that swings a game. Furthermore, he understands his role in the offense, mostly initiating plays and sticking to catch-and-shoot 3’s mixed with occasional drives to the rim. More than a capable shooter, his current 39% from deep actually belies his even hotter shooting in the latter half of the season.
(-): Lack of true point-guard skills limits his ability to create for others outside of set plays. Offensively, he’ll sometimes find himself on an island, whether forced to shoot a 3-pointer off the dribble, or rush a driving layup at the rim. Defensively, his constant reaching can get him into early foul-trouble and takes him out of the game.
Ivica Zubac (40, big): Underrated young big who succeeds at a lot of the “little things”, looking to prove himself after struggling mightily in last year’s playoffs.
(+): Zu is a true 7-footer and he plays like it. He sets very wide and solid screens to constantly free up his teammates. An excellent rim protector within 0-4 feet. Very solid in 1v1 and help defense. Quick enough feet that he can recover from nearby dribble penetration and challenge at the rim. Very good rebounder who eats up plenty of space down low, and often positions himself well for both defensive and offensive boards. Offensively, Zu is an opportunistic rim runner in transition and a capable pick and roll player in the half-court. He's a big target with soft hands, and can finish in a variety of ways at the rim with high efficiency.
(-) His biggest flaw, which was exposed in last year’s Warriors series, is his struggle to guard the high-screen and switch versus elite guards who can shoot from deep. Like most big men, Zu’s natural instinct is to sag and protect dribble penetration in the paint. Instead, what often happens is the opponent will use Zu’s man as a screen, knowing that Zu won’t step up, and then walk right into a wide open 3. The other significant “flaw,” is that he’s been limited in playing only ~18 min/gm this season, and rarely in critical 4th quarters. The main reason being a lack of spacing, especially with Trez seeing big minutes, though to Zu’s credit Doc has given him longer runs during the bubble and he’s responded productively. The big question is “Will this continue in the playoffs?”
Marcus Morris (31, wing): A mid-season acquisition brought in to ease the stars’ offensive workload, Mook is out to prove that he can play well on a championship contender.
(+): A capable scorer from all over the court with 3’s, mid-range post-ups, and at the rim. Can isolate, create shots for himself, a very lowkey playmaker and shoots a solid +80% at the line. Defenses have to respect him and that takes pressure off of Kawhi & PG to have to produce all the time. Capable of doing just enough on D, but most comfortable playing stout and physical in the post.
(-): Not a versatile defender, and can be caught out of position. Mook has also struggled to find his offensive rhythm since the trade, most notably regressing from a 44% 3PT on good volume with the Knicks, to shooting only 31% with the Clips. Part of this is due to his adjustment from a green light go-to scorer with NYK (~20ppg) to 4th or 5th option struggling to temper his shots with LAC (~10ppg). To Mook’s credit he’s seemingly found his stroke in the bubble shooting 38% from deep. Can he continue to keep this up?
Lou Williams (23, guard): The most prolific bench scorer in NBA history, 3x 6MOTY and one half of the dynamic bench duo. Also, a well-known lemon-pepper wing enthusiast.
(+): Pure scorer who plays at an unnatural “start/stop rhythm,” making difficult shots look dependably routine. 99% of the time If he goes left it’s his patented fall away jumper, if he goes right it’s a driving layup. Utilizes a convincing pump fake that inexperienced players tend to bite on, and knows just how to contort his slight body to create contact and get to the FT line. Efficient catch and shoot from 3. Willing to take and make big shots (see last year’s Warriors series). Good PnR player, especially with Trez. Comfortable with pick and pop alongside stretch bigs for 3. Can split weak double teams and make the correct pass to the open shooter. Surprisingly good at anticipating passing lanes and lazy post-entry passes.
(-): A big defensive liability when isolated 1v1, especially anywhere in the paint. Sometimes gets caught ball watching and prone to backdoor cuts from the corner shooter. Can be overwhelmed into turnovers or tough shots with long/athletic defenders and physical double teams. If enough calls don’t go his way, he can get frustrated.
Montrezl Harrell (5, big): As physical of a player the league has to offer. Trez is coming in cold off an extended absence from the bubble, but like a hungry pitbull the 6MOTY candidate is fiending to be unleashed.
(+) Trez’s high-energy and intensity masks the skill that he actually possesses. He knows how to body defenders to move them off their position, almost always goes up strong for the secure 2-handed dunk, and uses his athleticism and length to draw fouls at a high rate. On the “finesse” side, he’s a capable isolation scorer with a bevy of face-up and post moves in the paint, including a sweeping hook across the lane. The “vigor” to Lou’s “velvet,” he’s dangerous in the PnR as a finisher and playmaker catching on the short roll and finding guys in the corner. Defensively, at only 6’7’’ he relies on his long 7’4’’ wingspan as a help defender to get weakside blocks and his quickness to draw charges tallying the 4th most in the NBA.
(-) Sometimes his tunnel vision for the bucket gets him into trouble, his aggression sometimes leading to ill-advised drives and charges of his own. Despite a high FT rate he’s still only a 65% FT shooter. As an undersized big he can be isolated and scored on by true centers 1v1 and out-rebounded in the paint.
Jamychal Green (4, wing): A holdover from the Grit N’ Grind Grizzlies, JMyke brings toughness and shooting as a key role player for the squad.
(+): He does all the little things that often don’t show up in the box score, including screening, boxing out, hustling for loose balls and spacing the floor. Shoots the majority of his shots with confidence in good rhythm from deep, hitting 39% on ~4 3PA/gm. Unafraid to isolate on the occasional mismatch in the paint. When paired as the de facto big alongside the starters, the Clips can go 5 out with little drop off on either end of the floor.
(-): Limited offensively, but he understands that. His only real consistent fault is his knack for traveling whenever he pump fakes and decides to drive to the rim.
Landry Shamet (20, guard): Talented young sniper who has struggled with injuries and inconsistencies this year.
(+): A confident shooter with refined off-ball movement using off-ball screens and running into open space (a la JJ Redick) with a very quick shooting form from catch to release. Showed flashes this season as a ball handler driving to the rim and made a significant jump in FT shooting to 86%.
(-): While still an above average 38% 3PT shooter, it is down significantly from 45% last season. This is partly due to untimely injuries, one of which he’s currently sidelined with a foot sprain. Defensively, his slight build and inexperience allows him to be bullied by opposing scorers.
Reggie Jackson (1, guard): Mid-season arrival from buyout market, Reggie is trying to find his role as a key bench contributor.
(+): Confident ball-handler to pair with Lou in the backcourt. Since arriving in LAC he’s been shooting a scorching 41% from deep on ~4 3PA/gm, many of which are wide open. Opportunistic driver who can take advantage of openings and finish at the rim with skill.
(-): His aggression can sometimes lead to tunnel vision where he’ll take ill-advised shots over making the easier, correct pass to an open teammate. He’s a sub-par point-of-attack defender, and often finds himself just out of position, which is especially problematic when alongside Lou and/or Sham on the bench.
Patrick Patterson (54, wing): Afterthought offseason acquisition with surprising productivity.
(+): Another player who understands his limited role. Good screen setter, moves the ball, and is savvy at finding open space on the arc, where he’s shooting a cool 39% on 3 3PA/gm. Occasionally takes advantage of mismatches at the rim. Solid defender.
(-): Could probably hustle a little more, but like JMyke, there’s not much to fault. He’s just a limited player.
Rodney McGruder (19, guard): Nicknamed “The Scrapper” because he always hustles, does the dirty work, and if we’re being honest, is a familiar face in garbage time minutes.
(+): Attentive defender with good hustle and reads at the point-of-attack. Has a driving floater in his bag. Notably, he’s looked sharp since entering the bubble. “Thinks” the game well and Doc seems to appreciate that.
(-): Struggled mightily from 3pt this season, shooting a mere 27%. To his credit, he’s worked on it during quarantine and it yielded a recent game winner vs Portland, but still a work in progress.
Joakim Noah (55, big): Former DPOY, highly-savvy veteran big at the end of the bench.
(+): At 35 years young, Noah still embodies the hustle mentality. Does the dirty work with screens, box outs, and battling on the boards. Still an exceptional passer from the center position.
(-): Physically limited since returning from achilles surgery. The dip in athleticism gets him out of defensive position and into foul trouble. Also, to no surprise a very limited offensive player.
Terance Mann (14, guard): Promising young rookie and developing fan-favorite who probably won’t see much real time.
(+): A 6’5’’ SF in college transitioning to a PG in the pros, Mann pushes the ball well, is aggressive and strong attacking the rim, and is developing his vision to find open shooters. Excellent rebounder. Committed but inexperienced defender.
(-): Generally lacks experience and is still learning the position. Not yet a confident shooter from 3. Sometimes out of control and leaves his feet when passing.
Amir Coffey (7, wing): Rookie G-league 2-way player with a pun-friendly last name.
(+): Highly athletic lefty who can score from various spots on the court. Holds his own defensively with length.
(-) : Like Mann, simply lacks enough experience versus the pros.
Expected Playoff Rotation: Starters are Bev, PG, Kawhi, Mook, Zu. Bench rotation includes Lou, Trez, JMyke, Reggie, Sham, with possible situational minutes for 2Pat and McGruder. Noah is there in case of foul trouble, and the same goes for the young rooks in Mann and Coffey. Of course, all this is subject to players’ availability. Conventional wisdom dictates that playoff rosters shrink to ~8 players. Throughout the season, Doc has comfortably run lineups of all bench players, leaning on both 2nd and 3rd string players to deal with extended injuries / load management within our roster. In the long run it has been successful in limiting the superstars’ minutes/game, but at times it has hurt them as the drop off from without Kawhi/PG, especially defensively, is noticeable. With such a deep roster, it will be interesting to see how much Doc opts to stagger Kawhi and PG and extend their minutes so there is minimal drop off. Still, I would not be surprised if he leans on the roster depth when needed.
The Coach: Doc Rivers
The Prototypical Player’s Coach and great motivator which hides the fact that he’s also very good at X’s and O’s. Under Doc Rivers, everyone understands their roles and it starts with the stars at the top. With Lob City, it was CP3, Blake and DJ. Last year it was Gallinari, Lou Will, and Tobias. This year it’s Kawhi and PG. With each group he’s instituted different schemes that utilize their individual talent, and he trusts them to execute the game plan. With this structure, you don’t see a lot of “fluky” scoring outputs from non-stars, but everyone that sees the floor understands what their role is. Some fans think he’s overly stubborn to a fault with regards to his rotations and perceived lack of in-game adjustments (though I don’t necessarily agree.) He places a lot of trust in the vets and believes heavily in his schemes. Predictably, you can expect a lot of Kawhi & PG in the starting lineup, and a lot of Lou & Trez from the bench. Speaking of Doc’s schemes.... Offense - Screening is Fundamental!: The majority of the Clippers offense is initiated at the elbows and at the top of the arc in a spread pick and roll system with the express purpose of 1) generating mismatches for the players to score or 2) drive and kick to open spot up shooters. It all starts with a screen...
Sometimes it’s the classic PnR. -- Ex: Lou has the ball, Trez screens for him, and they roll to the basket.
Sometimes it’s a variation on the PnR. -- Ex: Kawhi curling around a big Zu screen, and then catching the pass as he moves downhill into a number of options where he can choose to shoot, attack an opening in the paint, roll and feed the big man, or continue moving into a secondary action.
Many of these variations start at the elbows, with an off-ball screen used to shed the primary defender and receive the ball with momentum and space -- Ex: PG curling off a double-screen and stepping into a catch and shoot 3.
Then consider the many variations on top of these simple screening principles such as:
multiple off-ball screens
utilizing guards to screen and force unconventional mismatches
starting the screener with the ball to initiate handoffs
classic pick and pop as the screener steps back for a catch and shoot 3
variations of pick and pop with a target as a decoy -- Ex: Kawhi coming off the screen as a decoy, grabbing the attention of the defense with his gravity, allowing the screener to step out for a wide open catch and shoot 3
and much more...
When all else fails, Isolation!: If these major actions are defended well, the Clippers can turn to ISO, with Kawhi in the post, or PG and Lou on the perimeter where they’re free to “go to work” creating on the fly for themselves or for others. It’s a luxury to have all 3 capable scorers and playmakers anywhere on the court, and the Clippers lean into them. Defense - Switching, switching, and more switching?: Doc prefers to let assistant coach Rex Kalamian handle this end. Primarily, the Clips love to switch a lot at the point of attack. This helps when they have enough of their long, versatile wing defenders on the floor, and it hurts when they don’t. Generally it is a point of consternation among fans, as the players generally have enough talent to not switch and instead play man to man. In theory, it’s simple. Try to prevent dribble penetration, use length to stay connected to your man in help situations and close out on shooters. When the team is communicating, especially on the back line, they can really lock it down. Whether or not they can do it consistently is a whole other question. Sometimes they’ll send double teams against superstars, and the results vary depending on how committed they are at doing it. Every now and they’ll mix in an in-game adjustments to change an unwanted rhythm, including:
Zone - to prevent dribble penetration at the sacrifice of open shooters
Full court press - to put some pressure on a star ball handler
Blitzing/trapping the ball handler - if they’re getting killed by a talented shooter in high screen scenarios above the arc
Team Strengths
The two-way superstars: See Kawhi + PG’s player descriptions.
Bench depth, starring Lou and Trez: The co-6MOTY candidates have a special connection that’s been going for 3 years running. Both are 18+ ppg scorers, and their PnR is one of the most challenging things to defend in the NBA. JMyke, Reggie and a healthy Shamet are all capable spot up shooters and scorers in their own right. If foul trouble occurs, they can go further down the bench and find someone who can contribute.
Half-Court dominance: They’re capable of playing faster paced in transition against weaker defenses, but generally their bread is buttered in the half-court where they can get set. The overall result is tied for 2nd in NETRTG (+6.3), 2nd in OFFRTG (113.3) and 5th in DEFRTG(106.9).
Free throws and 3’s: The Clippers offense consistently generates two of the most statistically productive shots in basketball, the free throw and the 3 pointer. They lead the league in FTA, bolstered by Kawhi, Lou and Trez. Moreover, theoretically everyone that will see consistent minutes (outside of Zu and Trez) can shoot the 3 at an above average rate. It’s a luxury that can not be understated. They’re 6th in the league shooting 37% 3PT as a team.
Defending the paint: Contrary to popular opinion, the Clippers actually do a good job protecting the rim, Much of this has to do with Zubac’s length, Trez’s positioning, and the handful of long wings that come in to help. The problem is inconsistency, whether due to lack of effort or limited minutes from their best rim protector in Zu, but more often than not they’re sturdy, holding opponents to the 6th lowest paint ppg in the league.
3-point defense: Contrary to Clippers fans' opinion, they are also good defenders of the arc at 35.6%, settling within the Top 5 team 3PT defenses throughout the year.
Championship coaching experience: Doc has won one in Boston. Asst. Coach Ty Lue has won one in Cleveland, and two as a player with the Lakers. Asst. Coach Sam Cassell has won 3 as a player including one in Boston and two in Houston. Even Asst. Coach Brendan O’Connor has one from Detroit. It’s an experienced staff.
Clutch playmaking: It helps to have stars who are confident scorers and playmakers under pressure, with Kawhi being the main man. To Doc’s credit, he’s also one of the better ATO (after time out) play callers which has won us several games in the past.
Team Weaknesses
Health & Availability: The Clippers are deep, but they’ve had to rely on it far more than they wanted to this season as they’ve rarely been 100% healthy. Kawhi missed 15 games, PG missed 24, Bev missed 21, Sham missed 19, and the list goes on. The result is a team has been inconsistent in X’s and O’s familiarity and energy throughout the year. And as the playoffs begin, Bev is coming off of a strained calf, Sham nursing a sprained foot, and Trez is just coming out of quarantine. Can they get everyone together at the same time?
Turnover prone: The lack of a single “true” point guard to consistently organize them hurts, as a lot of their primary ball-handlers have had to learn to make plays through growing pains. The result is a sub-par AST/TO ratio, 19th in the league.
Foul trouble: The Clippers brand of defense sometimes gets them into trouble. They like to switch everything, body up opponents, reach and jab at the ball, and sometimes play overly aggressive and out of position. These things can get them into foul trouble, especially when they’re undisciplined and not communicating well. They’re a bottom 10 team in fouls per game.
Ball watching and Defensive Inconsistencies: The team sometimes falls into a lull in which they focus too much on the ball. When this happens their defense suffers as they become prone to cutters and fail to box out and end their defensive possession with a rebound. Ultimately, it’s not a killer weakness, as they’re actually a decent rebounding team (3rd in total reb/game and 10th in both offensive and defensive rebound %), but they could be scary good if given more attention to detail.
Bench defense: While great at scoring, the trio of Lou, Reggie, and Sham, struggle mightily against talented and/or aggressive perimeter scorers. When they are on the floor together, any one of them can be a prime target for opposing offenses.
Stars’ questionable past playoff experience: Kawhi you can go... I’m looking specifically at PG, Lou and Trez. Which PG shows up? The one who led his team in multiple ECF battles against Lebron’s Heatles or the one who struggled in back to back 1st round exits in OKC (though I admit not entirely his fault). Lou has several playoff experiences in his career, but he’s only been a serious focal point once last year vs the Warriors. Can he lock-in and deliver deep into the playoffs? Same goes for Montrezl whose first and only real playoff appearance was last year.
Team Habits
Inconsistent lineups: Again, this is partly due to lack of availability and continuity this season, but even if everyone is healthy, the Clippers don’t really have a “5 Best” lineup. Kawhi, PG and Bev are the team’s 3 most flexible players. But who rounds out the closing lineup? Do you go small and offensive with Lou and Trez and give up some defense? Do you go big with rim protection in Zu and give up spacing? Or do you go somewhere in between with Mook and JMyke who are not especially proficient at either end?
Deferring to our superstar ISOs when things get bogged down: Despite having a well-oiled offensive system in place, sometimes it’s disrupted and the game just slows down. The Clips often lean on their stars to bail them out, which sometimes turns the role players into passive bystanders, while other times the stars come through and deliver.
Play to the level of competition: I think most fans of the NBA believe their team does this, haha... but the Clippers do have a handful of bad losses this year to show as evidence. The hope is that they’re consistently “locked in” for the playoffs.
Over-reliance on switching: The Clippers tendency to switch leaves them vulnerable to miscommunication and all sorts of mismatches against a smart offensive team. This becomes especially problematic in closing lineups using defenders that can be exploited.
Series Expectations
Like every playoff series, this comes down to matchups, especially between the superstars on each team. The Mavs hold the highest Offensive Rating in NBA history for a reason. Led by Luka’s scoring and game-breaking passing ability, they are capable of winning any given game simply by getting hot, which they have done quite often this year. The prevailing narrative is that the Clippers pose a direct matchup problem for Luka, which is kind of hard to believe considering he’s averaging ~30 pts/game in their 3 meetings this season. However, what the Clips do well is use their athletic wing defenders to consistently challenge him at the point of attack. Pat Bev, if healthy, would get the primary assignment as he uses his quick feet and fast hands to stay in Luka’s personal space. If not Bev, then PG likely gets the responsibility, using his length and defensive IQ to stay connected. If Luka was a little more quick and elusive towards the rim, more consistent from 3 off the dribble, or more willing to shoot mid-range jumpers, he might be able to overcome the Clippers defense. But more often than not, Luka is forced to make a decision - 1) take a difficult shot from deep or at the rim under pressure and length, 2) make a spectacular pass to an open shooter, or 3) simply give the ball up to someone else and let them try to make a play. The first two options are possible given Luka’s talent, but it’s a lot to ask for consistently. The 3rd option is a win for the defense. Speaking of Luka’s teammates, Kristaps will likely have some big scoring games, and they’ll absolutely need it if they’re going to have a chance at winning. The 3pt shot should consistently be there for KP, given his height and Unicorn ability to shoot from extra deep, made easier by the Clippers' tendency of their bigs to sag in drop coverage. The question is, can his streaky shooting get hot enough to overcome his season average of 35% from 3? And while the Clips historically struggle against versatile, skilled & lengthy bigs who can score and outrebound them in the post (see AD, Embiid, etc.). how much would KP relish that role, embrace the physicality and impose his will on any given night? As for the rest of the team, the Clippers have to ensure that they are disciplined guarding the 3. Admittedly, I have not watched much of the Mavs this year, but I catch enough highlights to know that Seth “The Better” Curry, THJ, DFS, Trey Burke, Kleber and especially the one and only JJ Barea are all capable shooters and can get hot at any time. If the Clippers struggle to defend dribble penetration, and are undisciplined in preventing kick outs to open shooters, I could see the Mavs absolutely catching fire and leveraging the hot hand... (note: quick shout out to Barea for what he did to the Lakers during the 2011 championship run!) Similar to the Clips’ challenge with Luka, the Mavs' big question is “How do they defend Kawhi?” How well can they hinder him from getting to his spots like his patented mid-ranger? DFS and Kleber will do their best, but can they defend him without fouling? Without Powell and WCS, do they have enough big bodies to keep him from getting to the rim? Moreover, can they stop his running-mate in PG from getting clean looks at 3 off the Clippers high screen actions? How well will they recover to all the spot up shooters on the arc? Can they contain the Lou and Trez PnR? Can they keep Zu off the boards? Whose offense will prevail? It’s a lot of tough questions to ask and I’m not sure the Mavs have enough answers on defense to succeed. Nevertheless, the Mavs are still highly talented, well-coached by Carlisle, and I think a reasonable expectation is a very exciting 5-game series highlighted by some incredible shotmaking, highly-aesthetic playmaking and scoring outbursts on both sides. Many are predicting a 4-game sweep, but I personally think the Mavs are too good and capable of hot shooting on any given night to let this be an uncompetitive series. Moreover, as a naturally cautious Clippers fan I personally wouldn’t be surprised if the series went even longer. We’ll just have to wait and see.
End
That’s it! Phew! I hope this provided some food for thought on the Clippers, and I welcome any and all respectable discussion on the upcoming series. Thank you to those who have read this far and thank you again to u/chronoquairium for his format, advice, and patience and for LAClippers for recommending me. Good luck and good health to everyone in the bubble and at home, in quarantine. In the immortal words of The Clipper Bros… “You heard it here first! Have a great time! Turn up! Love you guys! Awesome!”
bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for February 11th and Review of February 10th
Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review! Yesterday In Review: My Lineup- -
Analysis- 3 game slate. I just stacked where I thought the best spots were. Let’s get to today already!!! The Daily Slate: Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down. In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors. KAT - Normally I hem and haw here. It’s easy for me to pick spots to take advantage of or what you need to be careful of. Picking just ONE person though who you think has the best chance at a ceiling game can be daunting. I take this seriously. I don’t just rush through it to save time. If it takes me an hour to decide, it takes me an hour. Sometimes I go even longer diving into stuff. But anyone who doesn’t look at this slate and say KAT (10000) isn’t one of the top options is insane. Everything else makes me lean towards KAT over the other MANY, MANY options (that should also act to suppress ownership). First, over their last few games, KAT’s price has risen from 9700. But the longer trend is that his price has come down, which is insane. He was close to 11k a few weeks ago. And now we can get him for 10k, the 6th most expensive on the slate. His recent batch of games had him going against the Pels (with AD), Magic, Grizzlies, Nuggets, Grizzlies, Jazz, and Jazz. That is incredible stretch of going against slow teams, great defenders, or both. There wasn’t one easy matchup there, and he only failed to reach value as many times as he got more than 60 DKP (twice). No one in the NBA is in a better spot than “Center against the Clippers”. Seriously. The Clippers give up more PPG to the Center than any team gives up to any position. (And they are almost as bad against PF, which means no one can help). I mean, Zubac is a bad defender, and that is all they got. They have been dreadful all year, and they dropped the only C they had with a decent DRPM. Zubac’s isn’t terrible, but we have to consider the fact he has not been a starter all year, he played limited minutes, and the quality of opponent he saw wasn’t as high as a starter’s. We will see Zubac’s metrics match his talent soon enough. The one area of concern I have here is the spread. I know this is going to be a fast paced game (Clippers have been top 10 in pace all season) with not a lot of D. But the Wolves are much better than the Clippers and they are at home. Right now Vegas hasn’t given us a total or spread, so be wary. I’m not going to care though. I might be concerned, but it won’t change anything. If you look at the season, KAT and Rose are normally the Usage leaders on the Wolves. With Rose out recently, Wiggins (6500) has taken up the mantle of 2nd fiddle. But, regardless of who he’s on the floor with, KAT is the lead dog here, ironically enough. Right now, Teague is Probable and Rose is Questionable. Both went through a full practice, so I expect both to play. With Teague starting and Rose coming off the bench, I don’t think Rose’s usage will change anything in regards to how we approach KAT. I think Teague’s presence helps instead of hurts KAT’s production. If Rose plays, I will not be as interested in Wiggins, though. Honestly, if this game stays close, I wouldn’t be surprised if KAT can get past 70 DKP. There are certainly no barriers up to prevent him from doing so. Editor’s Note- The O/U spread was just released- 227.5, MIN -4.5. Hello KAT! Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Knicks v. Cavs - Normally when I see either of these teams, or a sub 210 total, I am filled with apprehension. But not here. This is going to be a gold mine. First, how fucking horrible do you have to be to be underdogs to this years Cavs team??? I mean, I think home court swings the O/U about 3 points, so on a neutral court, the Knicks would be projected to win by 1.5. But still. To even have it be that close is an embarrassment. But there is plenty to love here. Except, ironically, Love who may not get more than 10 minutes if he plays. The most expensive player, therefore, is DSJ (6400) who will be close to 8k soon. He’s matched up against Sexton, the 2nd worst defender in the NBA. He is gonna keep getting run, and keep smashing this price. Get on that. Jordan (5800) hasn’t played 30 minutes yet as a Knick, but has topped 30 DKP (including a 38) in his last couple games even in limited minutes. He will see Zizic, who is awful, and the best defender they have. I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets close to 30 min again and pushes 40 DKP just the same. If Knox (5000) is going to shoot the ball 20+ times (he will), he should be one of the easiest plays you make today. They aren’t going to really put up a lot of resistance here. I would be more surprised if Knox doesn’t put up 25 real points than if he does. I should also point out Mitch Robinson (4100) has been getting all the C minutes Jordan hasn’t, and he has been smashing it. His last 3 games he has put up 29.75, 26, and 31 DKP. Additionally, after only letting him play 10-15 minutes the couple games before last, they finally let Kadeem Allen (3700) get 28 minutes last game, and he put up 33 DKP. He’s not the most talented player, but he hustles and if they give him run, he’ll crush value again. On the Cavs side, it is the only 3 people they have worth anything right now- Nance (5900), Clarkson (5200), and Sexton (4900), all of whom have been smashing their value lately as well. All have safe minutes. All have high enough usage they’re production should be assured. I expect people will not be on this game as much as they should be, and you should be ready to take advantage. I will also point out that Chriss (3000) and Knight (3000) are also both still min priced for some reason. Knight is a little more risky, but Chriss has gotten 24 and 23 minutes in his 2 games here, with 23 and 16.25 DKP. At minimum price, I will take that every time. Knight only has the one game so far, but he got 12 min and 13.5 DKP. If they increase his role (and decrease Delly’s) he could easily get 15-18 minutes and pay off another minimum salary.
Drummond and Blake - We have seen both of these guys, in worse matchups, priced at 10k each. For some reason, against a Wizards team that is hemorrhaging points to PFs and Cs like they were the Clippers, we have both Blake (9000) and Drummond (8900) far, far too underpriced. Bryant is not a good defender and he will get demolished by Drummond if they were to start him. Portis is, statistically, one of the worst defenders in basketball, so, if he starts, that’s even better for Drummond. There is no good option. Similarly, with Jeff Green Questionable with a hip injury, Blake will either get a hobbled Green or a Jabari Parker that is as statistically bad at D as Portis. And then what option do they have? A terrible Ariza moving to the 4?? Crushed. Sam Dekker? Lol. Detroit is 28th in pace and Washington is 8th. There is just nothing here to dislike from these two, except them cutting into each other’s production. But there’s plenty of fish in this river for both them to eat.
D’Angelo - With Dinwiddie out, D’Angelo (7800) should be priced over 8k every game without question. I know he’s going against a tough defensive team. I know it is projected to blow out. But I also know none of these has stopped Russell before, and there’s a reason the Nets are doing so well this year- they don’t care about if they are supposed to win or not, and they play their asses off every game. I expect the same here. When everyone on the team is going against tough defenders, much like when they are all going against terrible defenders, a majority of the production is going to flow through the players with the highest usage. That means D-Lo, who is top ten in the NBA in usage, is going to be the safest bet from the Nets to reach value, and someone I honestly think pushes 50DKP tonight. LeVert is still limited severely and I don’t think they hurt each other as much as people say, having watched them play. I will add I have a good feeling this will be an Ed Davis (3600) game, given the size of the Raptors. He is going to be one of my favorite punts on the day, today. I just wish he had multiple position eligibility.
DK’s refusal to price Doncic at 10k - I don’t know what they don’t understand here- Doncic (8700) is a serious triple double threat every single game, and has been EASILY getting to 50 DKP Every. Single. Game (except one he got injured). This is just ludicrous pricing from DK. I’m sure going against the D of CP3 is a negative, but I also know he is like 4 feet taller than CP3, so it won’t matter THAT much. I have also been talking in every article about Hardaway (5000) being the new 2nd option on this team, and how his price would be at 7k soon. He put up 34 DKP last game and his price fell 100. He is going to shoot this game. A lot. And he gets to match up against Eric Gordon who is one of the worst defenders in the NBA. Period. I think Powell (4800) is also a good play. He will be matched up against Houston’s backup C (Nene or Tucker) and, either way, he should push 30 DKP today. Especially if this game does blow out. I would also take a stab at Burke (3900) and DFS (4100) in tourneys. Both have shown how risky they are, but also shown you the upside they can give you in the minutes they will get. And they should get blow out minutes as well.
Underpriced Clippers - I already talked about how much I like this game when talking about KAT. The crazy thing is that the most expensive Clipper is LouWill (6800), who is far too cheap and provides you with easy 50 DKP upside. If this game stays close (and it should) he gets the 4th quarter run, and he is top 10 in the NBA in usage. AND people don’t play him cause he isn’t a starter. His tag team partner Montrezl (6700) is also in a good spot, though I don’t like him as much as other people. Gallo (6000) got back up to 30 minutes and put up almost 40 DKP last game. I expect him to go past both marks here. He is another one of the most underpriced people on this slate. Given the size of the Wolves, I also expect Zubac (4000) to get 30 minutes, making him a near lock for 30 DKP as well. He put up 28.25 DKP in 23 minutes against a MUCH better Celtics team. They also gave Shamet (3900) 27 minutes last game, filling a void they had, and he put up 28 DKP.
CJ McCollum - Last time the Blazers played, I pointed out the wonderful streak the CJ had been on. I pointed out how the Mavs had been weakest against the perimeter, and this gave CJ a great shot to continue the streak. Be careful, though, I warned. I have a supernatural ability to make CJ play awful whenever I recommend him. So, of course, he put up like 26 DKP. I am going to spit in the face of fate and hope it’s not the wind. While I am concerned CJ will see some PG13 on D, he will mostly be lined up against whoever the Thunder have playing SG at that point (probably Ferguson). I also think that, without Jerami Grant, the Thunder are more likely to move PG13 to PF and play Diallo or something at SF, meaning CJ would be a lot safer. Plus, Lillard will see Russ and Nurkic will see Adams no matter what. Either way, if the Blazers want to keep it close against one of the best teams in the NBA, they are going to need CJ (7100) to step up today. In an incredible pace up spot, I really think he can. I also like Layman (4200) and Hood (4000) as potential punts for the same reason.
Russ and PG13 - Jerami Grant missing tonight’s game means that someone like Diallo (3100) will move into the starting lineup. He won’t get any of Grant’s usage though. That will just be split back up and fed to Russ (11400), who should get his 10th consecutive 3x2, and PG13 (10300) who has 60+ DKP in 5 of his last 10 games. Both these guys are in amazing spots tonight with Grant out. There’s really no need to say much more. “Play these world-class superstars” isn’t exactly breaking news. As always, Schroder (4700) is underpriced for his bench role and his ceiling.
Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):
Raptors - Let’s be clear here, I love Kawhi (9100) here. Love him. Would seriously consider him for the MSC play today if not for KAT. He should get you 50 DKP today, easily, and they just keep pricing him at 9k instead of 10k. The Nets are playing at the FASTEST PACE in the NBA over the last few weeks. You really couldn’t ask for a better spot here. So what do we need to be careful of? The addition of Gasol (7000). Last game he got about 19 minutes and Ibaka (6100) got the other 29. Against the Nets, I want to lock in a Center, but I can’t imagine those numbers don’t balance out more this game, with both probably getting closer to 24. I wouldn’t say you can’t take a chance on either, but it is certainly a huge risk. I am also concerned with how this will affect Siakam (6500). I don’t think it will, but he only put up 25 DKP against a terrible Knicks squad last game, so it’s certainly something to look out for. Brooklyn’s weakness against Centers also makes them weak against players like Siakam, so, if you are too worried about C, and less worried here, I would go with Siakam. But I want to see how they run these 3 together more than 1 game before I make any rules up for them.
Bucks vs Bulls - Yeah, I know. Don’t predict blowouts. Look at the Heat/Warriors game last night (which I fell asleep at the start of. Damn medicine). But when the best team in basketball is going against one of the worst, and when that team has been resting people and still blowing teams out, I have a hard time thinking that won’t also happen here. If you insist, Giannis (11300) is the obvious play from the Bucks, with BroLo (5100) having a fun matchup against his brother that he should be able to exploit. On the other side, the Bucks have the best D in the NBA as well. The only place they have been weak is against PF. That means if I am going to go anywhere on the Bulls, it will be with a still underpriced Markkanen (7900). But, again, I most certainly won’t.
Rockets - While this game is projected to blow out, that is not my concern here. My concern is Harden (12000) hurt his shoulder last game. Even though he is considered probable, there is no reason they should be risking him here. I expect him to go out and give as much as he always does, but I also expect the Rockets to be monitoring the fuck out of both him and his minutes. Expect that, if he so much as grimaces, he will be pulled and kept out until after the all-star break just to be safe. I love the other people on this team, though. CP3 (6900) was 7100 2 games ago and put up 40.5 DKP. Then his price fell 100 and he put up 49.5 DKP. So, of course, his price falls again. And now he gets to go against a weak Dallas backcourt, with Doncic and Brunson not exactly a dynamic defensive duo. I said a couple games ago, he will be over 8k soon. This is one of the biggest pricing mistakes on the slate, so make sure you get him in there if you can. I also LOVE Faried (6800) here. His price is also too low. He is priced that his floor is still reaching value meaning that, if he has a ceiling game, you are going to make some serious money. And, against a Dallas team that only has Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell to man the C position, I think Faried, and his 30+ minutes, are going to put a serious hurting on this team, especially if they try to limit Harden’s touches. If you want to go a little further with the injured Harden narrative, you would have to play Gordon (4600) who would be one of the biggest beneficiaries (if not the biggest) of Harden being pulled/limited.
Heat vs Nuggets - A tired Heat team, after a heartbreaking loss last night to the best team in the West, had to hop on a plane and fly to Denver to get ready to face the 2nd best team in the West tonight. On top of that, there is just too much other stuff to not like here- The Heat and the Nuggets are both at the bottom of the pace rankings. It’s the 2nd lowest total on the slate, at 213, with a spread that indicates Vegas thinks this will blow out, DEN -10.5. On top of being slow, both try to be defensively minded as well. And, as far as the Heat goes, good luck predicting who they are going to play and how much. Personally, given the production Whiteside had yesterday, I find it really hard to believe they wouldn’t have had a better chance to win if he had played more than 22 fucking minutes. But I digress. The point is, they have a lot of bodies, and none of them are stand outs, especially against Denver. If you are going to go anywhere, attack with guards here, meaning Winslow (5700), Richardson (6300) and Waiters (4100). I don’t want to attack the Nuggets with bigs, and the Heat don’t have the bodies to do it anyway. On the other side of the ball, the pace and everything make me wary of paying up for Jokic (10400), but his price is just far too cheap for the production he gives you every night, especially with Harris still out Millsap unlikely to play (considering he was severely limited at practice yesterday). I do love Plumlee (5800) here. If Millsap does actually miss (he is technically listed as QUESTIONABLE), he is priced such that his value and his floor here are pretty close to one another. He could get you 50 DKP, especially if this blows out and he becomes the lead play. The Heat are, by far, weakest against PF. Millsap being out also means another Lyles (4000) game, who is somehow still priced that low considering his last few games have seen him get 31, 24.25, 34, and 28 DKP. With Harris out, we should also consider Beasley (5300) in tourneys. He isn’t the safest but he has shown his upside with Harris out in the past.
Situations to monitor:
Jeff Green QUESTIONABLE - With Markieff injured/shipped off, Green plays a ton of minutes and has a hugely important role on this team. If he is out, we will see a ton of minutes for both Portis (6300) and Jabari (5600). Both are underpriced if Green was to play, but they are smash plays if Green is out. Similarly, we would see a bunch of minutes from Dekker (3300) who would become a viable punt play. Regardless of the Green situation, Beal (8800) and Sato (5900) are both really underpriced for this matchup, especially Sato who gets to take on R Jax, who is one of the worst defenders in the NBA. He let us down against an even worse Sexton a few games ago, though, so know he is still a risky GPP play and not a solid cash lock.
Myles Turner QUESTIONABLE - One of the biggest pieces of news on the day. He hurt his knee last game, colliding with Chriss, but managed to come back and play the rest of the game. I expect him to be able to play tonight, but given how bad the Hornets are, I wouldn’t be surprised if they kept him out for rest purposes anyway. For some reason, he is not showing up on DK as Questionable, but he was listed as questionable by the team yesterday. If Myles (6600) plays, he is priced fairly. If he is out, we have to immediately lock in Sabonis (5700) and give serious thought to Kyle O’Quinn (3000). This also affects the Hornets. If Myles plays, I will have interest in Lamb (5300) from the Hornets, due to Kemba’s tough matchup. If Myles is out, I think Zeller (4500) could push 30 DKP again, easily, in the 27 or so minutes he will get (that he is not correctly priced for). I should also point out, Bojan (5800) has been playing amazingly well without Oladipo and he will be priced near 7000 soon. So, once again, take advantage of the pricing error there.
Alright, I’ll keep the outro short since I wanna get this published - I have had 3 people in the last couple days thank me for helping them win 4-5 figures. I am blown away and I hope we can all keep it up today! Let’s have someone else make a couple grand today, alright!? Best of luck today everyone!!!
bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for February 2nd and Review of February 1st
Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review! Yesterday In Review: My Single Entry Lineup- -
Name
Price
DKP
Value
Proj Own
Real Own
Diff
Mack
3500
38.25
10.9x
12.8%
52.6%
39.8!!! (wow)
Allen
3300
21
6.4x
45.6%
40%
5.6
Caboclo
3400
16.5
4.9x
10.3%
28.7%
18.4!!
Kornet
4300
13.5
3.1x
10.2%
15.4%
5.2
Gobert
8500
46.75
5.5x
18%
21.9%
3.9
Westbrook
11000
56.5
5.1x
27.4%
35.2%
7.8
Jaylen Brown
4900
22.5
4.6x
1.9%
8.8%
6.9
Jokic
10800
63.75
5.9x
46.9%
52.3%
5.4
Total
49700
278.75
5.6x
My Highest Scoring Lineup- (859th in the DK And-One)
Analysis- On top of the obvious emotional toll the last couple days have taken on me, it also exacerbates the severe pain disability I have. I am at a constant 8 of 10, at best, without a couple different medicines in me. That is without doing anything. If I stand up or try walking more than a couple minutes, the pain from my back down my right leg into my toes will literally knock me off my feet. Worst off, it will increase my base pain level for the next couple days. Unfortunately the 7 hours of driving the last couple of days, on top of the standing and moving and sleeping on a bad bed.. Needless to say I am far too exhausted both physically and mentally to get too far into much of anything tonight. I got all your messages and I felt all your love. I let the family know that literally hundreds of people were praying for them every day, and there’s a whole community of really great people that have sent nothing but love and support. I also told her mom a couple of people had contacted me to ask if they could send flowers or anything. She asked that, in lieu of anything, to please send any donations you would to the American Brain Tumor Association. Thank you all again. I love you more than you will ever know. Jokic was my play of the day for today, going against a Houston team that had no one that could handle him (Faried? Come on.). After watching his press conference, I also locked in Gobert. That was a dude that took this “snub” personally. You don’t cry tears if you aren’t going to bust your dick off to show them wrong that night. A Jazz beat writer said it best- that Gobert was either going to score 50 points and get 20 rebounds tonight, or he would get 6 fouls in 6 seconds. Either way it would be fun to watch. I then had a more balanced lineup (with Faried and PG13), until the Conley news broke. Then I could get Mack, Bruno, Allen and have a ton of money leftover. I wanted to get Jaylen Brown who seems to be one of the best “blow out” run players I’ve seen this year. If I got one of the cheap Knicks, I would be able to fit Westbrook, so I took the ceiling chance and ran with it. This is a huge slate. With the Super Bowl on Sunday, there are going reaaaaaaal light on Sunday and cramming everything in today. 12 games today. 11 on this slate. I am still in an insane amount of pain. Even with the medicine. I am still also having a tough time of it emotionally and I haven’t slept well in a few days, so I am extra exhausted. Not that I need to give excuses to such kind people. I am just explaining this is going to be a little less in depth when it comes to explaining everything. I still put almost 2 hours into research, though. So, even on days when I don’t write as much, I still do all the research in every way. I did a full update on all my stats and metrics this evening, so we are as up to date as possible. So let’s get to it. It’s good to be back. Let’s hope nothing else happens for many many months. (editor note: i spent 4+ hours writing, and this is one of my longest articles ever) The Daily Slate: Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down. In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors. Devin Booker - Let us not forget, first of all, I have no idea who is going to be popular or not. But if Booker isn’t one of the chalkiest plays tomorrow, I will be surprised. If he isn’t, then make some money tomorrow by getting all over this right here. I know there’s a lot of really great plays, but gimme Booker for a few reasons. First, on a day where 24 teams are playing, and what will probably be over 300 players, the only one playing today that has scored 70 points is Devin Booker (8800). On that day, March 24, 2017, Booker got 70p/86a/3s/1b and what amounted to 96.5 DKP. So, sure, maybe Harden can get there. But don’t tell me Booker doesn’t have one of the highest ceilings tonight. Second, when I started writing these articles the Suns were 22nd in the NBA in pace. Right now, if you go by the whole season, they are up to 12th overall. If you look at their last 15 games, the Suns are 7th in pace. This is a team, with Booker having more control, that is playing much faster. And they get to go against the fastest paced team in the NBA, the Hawks. Next, the O/U is one of the highest on the slate, 235, and the spread is awesome with the Suns 2.5 point home favorites. Both season long, and recently, Booker leads the Suns in usage and no one is particularly close. Booker is 4th overall in the NBA. Over the last 15 games Oubre (5900) (who I also LOVE tonight) is the only other Sun in the top 50, and he barely snuck in at 46th. On top of all of this, the Hawks have one of the worst defenses in the NBA. Both overall, and specifically at the positions Booker will be playing. They are the NBA’s worst team at defending PGs (which Booker will be playing a good chunk of this game, even if Okobo is technically the starting point). They are also far worse than league average against SGs. And, in case you think they can just move a good defender over, they are also worst in the NBA at defending SFs. Best yet, the Suns have their fair share of horrid defenders, meaning, as Vegas predicts, this is going to be a high scoring shootout, where there is little defense, and the people who normally control the usage will not be prevented from continuing to do so (in fact, if anything, their usages should come in over their average season usage tonight). Melton is Out, Warren is Out, Bender is Questionable, and Ayton is Probable. I expect him to be limited, after missing a few games. If he isn’t, I have no problem playing both Booker and Ayton (6800) against this Hawks defense. Regardless, though, Ayton playing actually helps Booker so we should look at it as a good thing for Booker as well, on top of everything else. And, as you can see, that’s a lot. I also want to add that Jamal Crawford (3600) just put up 37.5 DKP. He isn’t the type that will hit every day for you, but he has been getting a lot more run with Melton out. And anyone getting that kind of run, against the Hawks, has to be on your short list of punts tonight, even on an 11-gamer. Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Hawks - Like with Suns I just spent a while talking about, the Hawks should be a priority tonight. Start by running Booker back with Trae Young (7500). In his last 4 games, Young has gotten 48.75, 37.75 (blow out), 43.5, and 48 DKP. He has seemingly found something. He is taking extra shots, and playing really well. While I think everyone will go through streaks, I don’t think this is a fluke. I think we are seeing Trae finally get everything together. Against a Suns team that plays incredible fast, and without defense, Trae could get to that 50 DKP mark tonight at a huge discount from some other people. This emergence, as well as the fact that the wings have all gotten healthy, has hurt the production of Collins (7900) who is still great, and has the same ceiling as always, but should only be considered a GPP play at this point. They have been limiting Dedmon (5800)”s minutes lately. He got 28 minutes last night and that’s the most he got since January 11th. Now ATL has to travel from Utah to Phoenix for the second night of a back-to-back. While I don’t think it will hurt anyone’s production, I would be surprised if it didn’t hurt Dedmon’s potential minutes. This means only one thing- Alex Len (4300) revenge game. As much as that is tongue-in-cheek, I am 100% serious that Len is a fucking amazing play tonight. I wish it wasn’t a revenge game thing so I could have recommended him at 2% ownership. Instead we have to pay attention. Ayton is an AWFUL defender. The Suns are 2nd worst in the NBA at defending Centers. And Len only played 9 minutes last night. While it could mean they mean to play him less, it could also mean they are saving him up for tonight. It’s a GPP play for sure, and one we may have to avoid given the inflated popularity caused by narratives, but it’s still interesting to consider.
Vuc vs D’Angelo III: Electric Boogalee - This will be the third time these teams have faced each other in the last few weeks. Both games have been incredibly close, as Vegas expects this one to be. The first game, Vuc (9800) had a bad game, only got 33 minutes, shot 7-20, and he still put up 50.25 DKP. The next game, Vuc had another bad game, only got 33 minutes, shot 9-20, and got 58 DKP. Vuc is playing the Nets. Don’t overthink that one. On top of that, the Nets have been playing at the 3rd fastest pace lately, and, much like the Suns, have pushed themselves up from a rank in the 20s to one of the fastest teams in the NBA. On the other side, in these 2 games, Dinwiddie got 20 and 29 real points, on his way to 26.5 and 39.75 DKP. Even with Dinwiddie putting up good production both games, D’Angelo (8200) still managed 40 and 25 real points, on his way to 58.5 and 54.25 DKP. And now Dinwiddie is injured. And Orlando is weakest against PGs.
Giannis - Giannis is a monster who should be priced at 12k in this matchup. While Washington is a bad D, they are better with Sato than with Wall, and their major deficiencies are shifting from the perimeter defenders to defending the frontcourt. Right now, they are weakest against PFs and Cs, meaning I will jump all over Giannis (10900) and BroLo (5100). You might think this game would blow out (I sure do), but Vegas thinks 229 points will be scored, and MIL will only win by 6. There’s a lot of expensive superstars in incredible spots, but it’s hard to argue Giannis isn’t in as good a spot as anyone tonight.
Rondo and Lebron - If you checked Haze’s article yesterday (and I wanna thank him again for putting in extra work with me having to be away), he had a section where he talked about usage. It is a topic I have covered in the past- correlation. There are some people you should never play together because they either eat into each other, or split minutes. But there are some players who, when they play with each other, make one another better. This is what happens when Rondo (6800) and Lebron (10800) get together. Lebron will be at 12k and Rondo over 8k before too long. Mark it down. They are going to get most of the work in this game. Even though Vegas thinks GS blows it out (and who wouldn’t think that could happen), installing them as 10.5 point favorites, I don’t think it’ll get far enough out of hand they won’t use this to keep giving Lebron the minutes he needs to get fully back to game shape, and I don’t think Lebron can ever play the Warriors without giving it an extra few notches. This is the 4th and 9th fastest teams in the NBA matching up. The O/U is highest on the slate at 236. The only thing that should keep you away from here is how incredibly popular I expect Lebron to be tomorrow. Either way, hooray for Rondo.
Curry - First things first, obey your thirst. Drink Sprite, A-ight? Second, commercials really stay with you forever, huh? Third, Klay is Questionable tonight. He missed last game and yesterday’s practice. They expect him to be a GTD but, hopefully, we know something in the early afternoon. If Klay (6200) plays he is OK but a victim of the TooManyCooks. If Klay is forced to miss again, Curry (9600) would be one of the best plays on the slate tonight. Given the fact that the Lakers haven’t been as good at defending the point with Lonzo out, and Curry is already one of the toughest players in the NBA to guard, he would be a great play even if Klay is active. Lebron is a great defender and will be on Durant. As much as I love to see that matchup, it is enough for me to go to who should the the lesser owned player, with a better shot to reach his ceiling. As I will continue to say, you can play Green (6400) any time he’s under 7k. If this is the game they lift his minute restriction, I will be on Cousins (6700), if not, i can’t pay that for 25 minutes no matter who it is.
The Pelicans Injury Report - AD is OUT. Randle is OUT. Mirotic is OUT. Elfrid on the Shelfrid is OUT. E’Twaun Moore is OUT. Even Trevon Bluiett is OUT. That leaves 10 active people. It doesn’t matter that Vegas has the Spurs as 10.5 home favorites. Blowout or not, the Pels don’t have the bodies to discriminate. Frazier (3800) and Frank Jackson (3500) have basically been splitting the PG minutes. Jackson starts, though, which means he has to battle Jrue for ballhandling and the other starters for usage. Even though Derrick White is a great defender, the Spurs are weak at defending PGs. Jrue (9100) is still not priced high enough for being the only player on this team objectively worth anything tonight. He should get into the high 30s in minutes regardless. Ian Clark (3000) has been backing him up (and others) to the tune of 20 minutes a game. He could put up 10 DKP or 20 DKP, but he is a min priced player getting run if you need one. Kenrich Williams (4100) is a real player and you need to play him tonight. People thought his performance 2 games ago, where he put up 16 rebounds and got 31 DKP, was a fluke. But if you watched the game, it wasn’t as if the ball kept slipping out of people’s hands, in a vaudevillian manner, until Williams wound up with it, possession after possession. He’s a dude who busts his ass and goes after it. I played him the next game, with like 10% of other people, and he put up 21 real points, 8 rebounds and 41 DKP. Miller (4400) is also getting almost 40 minutes of run a game here, and, even though his price has come up, he is still hitting the mid-30s in DKP and should do so again tonight. Solomon Hill (3300) seems to be the main person hurt by the emergence of Williams and I won’t have any of him today. Don’t play Wes Johnson (3000) under any circumstance. Okafor (7000) was rightfully manhandled by Jokic last game. Jokic drew enough fouls that Okafor couldn’t play as aggressive as he would have liked. He also played a solid D. Tonight, Okafor will be matched up against LMA, who is the 4th worst defensive Center in the NBA. Diallo (3200) doesn’t get enough minutes to be relevant either, and shouldn’t be played here. That’s literally everyone they have tonight. And 3 of them barely get any minutes.
Jazzzzzzzzzzzz - The Rockets will be playing without CP3 tonight, unless he somehow manages to convince the coach to let him play (doubtful). That means a couple of things. First, Harden is going to go nuts. Second, the Houston defense becomes TERRIBLE. Third, the Rockets play faster when Harden controls the ball. All of these are bonuses for DFS players that want to play Jazz players tonight. It is possible that all of these guys could hit value today. Gobert (8400) will drink Faried’s milkshake. Seriously. Faried won’t be able to stop him. Houston is making the Clippers look good against Centers lately. Rubio (6100) is back, if his 44 DKP game last night didn’t tell you that, and his price will be up to 7500 soon enough. Get on him while the value is there to get. Donovan (8700) may have the highest ceiling, but is also the most volatile when everyone is healthy. That sounds like a great GPP play to me. Korver (3700) also remains underpriced and should be considered every day as a legit punt.
Sixers vs. Kings - I was going to list a couple people individually, but this game is another DFS gift we get to enjoy tonight. The highest O/U on the slate at 236, with a great, close spread of PHI -3.5. The Sixers and Kings are both top 10 teams in pace. On the Sixers side, they already announced Redick and Chandler would be rested tonight. While I will get to the lineup changes, this makes me like Embiid (10700) and Simmons (9200) a lot more. They should be the main beneficiaries from the usage and other counting stats Redick and Chandler will be leaving for other people. In terms of cheaper guys, the Sixers have a couple different ways they can play this. First, they move Butler to SG (which would suck for Hield (6700)) and play Brewer (3400) at SF in place of Redick. Then they start Bolden (3400) at PF. If this happens, I will have more interest in Bogdan (5800) and Bagley (5300). They could also start TJ McConnell (3500) at PG and let Simmons play the 4. If this happens, I will be all over Fox (7400). Again, either way, they are going to need a whole lot of WCS (5700) who is playing at home and should easily push for 40 DKP today. I don’t know if there’s a single player on the entire slate as underpriced as WCS tonight. You just have to make some tough choices at Center. If you are worried WCS gets into foul trouble again (which has been happening a lot), you need to play Giles (3600). Either way, they’ll need one of them against Embiid, so make sure to take advantage of the production they will guarantee you at far too low prices.
Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):
Mavs vs Cavs - I mean, the Mavs just played their last game against another slow team, the Pistons (Mavs 27th, Cavs 25th, Pistons 30th). Even though the Pistons have Blake (and Drummond) who is more talented than everyone on the Cavs put together, it was a 89-93 score. I wouldn’t be surprised if even less points were scored today. Seriously. The O/U is 210 and, while I’m not allowed to do so, I would GLADLY bet the Under here. Because, to be honest, if the O/U was 200 I would still bet on the under. There are some decent plays. Doncic (8300) will be back, and Brunson (4200) won’t get in his way. Even if Dallas only scores 90 points, Doncic could get a 3x2 tonight. I think Powell (4400) is a decent punt, as is Kleber (4100). On the Cavs side, no player is priced high enough to make me worry about the potential speed and score (or lack thereof). However, no one is really low enough to make them locks. If anything, I will look at Cedi (5800) who has been on fire lately and Clarkson (5100) whose usage is high enough he could exceed value no matter what.
Miami Heat - This game is even worse than the Mavs/Cavs game. If you want to take a chance on Olynyk (3800), go ahead. He got 30 minutes last night, and they will need his height against a bigger Pacers team (though, honestly, he could play 10 minutes so I really can’t say I am going to go near this game).
San Antonio TooManyCooks - Putting the Spurs in this section isn’t saying that they are bad plays, necessarily. It is that we need to be careful here. They are playing against Jrue Holiday and the shell of the Pelicans, at home. They should easily win this one. Even if the Pels can keep it close (and they certainly could), the Spurs are spreading it around a lot. While people look at Derrick White (5700)’s last game, and see the team leading 45 DKP, they should rightfully be intrigued. I have been talking about White for a month. I love the kid and think he’s a great DFS asset, since he can produce across the spectrum. And when he gets hot from the floor, he can get you games like last one. The thing they might not have noticed, though, is that he only got 25 minutes. While that is an impressive bout of PPM, it is not impressive that Mills (4100) got 30 min, Forbes (3900) got 28, DeRozan (7600) got 36. If he only gets 25 minutes again, and 3 other guard-type players are going to get more minutes than him, at much fairer prices, how can you go to White? And given their recent production, how can you go to Mills or Forbes in anything but GPPs? And, again, given the real chance of a blow out, how can you trust DeRozan with so many other players in better games? The same goes for LMA (8100) who should be able to produce like crazy with the minutes he is given, but, if he only gets 28, how can you stomach paying that when you have 10 other games to choose from? If anything, I think Gay (5800) is priced low enough that he won’t kill you if this blows out and, if it stays close, he could get 46.25 DKP like he did on 1/26 when the the Spurs last played the Pels (with a much different cast of characters). Pop doesn’t need to play big, meaning you don’t have to worry about Gasol or Poeltl getting anything but sparse backup minutes. This means that Bertans (4100) and Belinelli (4000) should both easily see run in the 20s, and could see some extra run in the event of a blowout.
Situations to monitor:
Zach LaVine PROBABLE, Seldin GTD, Jabari Parker OUT - LaVine’s status has a lot of relevance for this entire game. Since he has been called probable, but is listed as questionable, we can plan for the slate as if he was playing and just make sure to stay aware of his status as we approach 7ET. Luckily this is in the first batch of games that goes off, so we will definitely know before anything gets locked in. If he is in, LaVine (7200) would be in the best spot on the Bulls. The Hornets are really weak against both SGs and players like LaVine, so, being a SG that is like himself, he would get an automatic nod from me. Like I always like to say, LaVine could easily put up 40 real points here, and that is more than 5x his value already. Apart from a weakness at C, the Bulls are also incredibly weak against SGs. This, however, is a function of LaVine being one of the worst defenders in the NBA. If he is in, it will be really hard to say no to Lamb (5900) who will line up against him and, like LaVine, could put up 5x his salary in raw points. If LaVine misses, I will lock in Markkanen (7100) and give serious consideration to Dunn (6700). I would also have a lot of interest in Arcidiacono (3600) who got 34 minutes last game in LaVine’s absence. If LaVine misses, I would also no longer have interest in Lamb, since Archie is actually a really good defender. With Parker out, the Bulls may have to run a 3 man rotation at PF/C meaning Lauri (7100), Portis (5700), and RoLo (4000) could all be forced into a huge chunk of minutes, making them all great plays. If Seldin (4500) plays (and, even though he’s listed as a GTD, he is expected to play), he would be a fine play. If he misses, the Bulls would be thin enough they would have to run Shaq Harrison (3300) out there for 30+ minutes. While not a decent PPM producer, he might be able to fall into 20+ points. It would also, again, increase the output of Dunn and Markkanen.
Otto Porter QUESTIONABLE - Porter finally got back to 30+ minutes a game, and he hurt his toe. He is questionable and I don’t see any indication if he will play or not (if anything, they think it will come down to a GTD, which is ok since this tips off with the first group of games at 7pm). If he plays he’s ok, but I will look elsewhere. If he misses, I will be all over Dekker (3300) as one of my top punts of the day. I will also stock up on Jeff Green (4700) who would get 35+ minutes and could easily get more DKP than that.
Tyreke AND Cory Joseph AND McDermott QUESTIONABLE - If any of them play, I have no interest in anyone here. This game is supposed to have 6 less points scored than the Mavs/Cavs game, which is insane. Both teams are incredibly slow. This game is going to suck for DFS players. However, if all 3 are out, Collison (6300) and Holiday (3800) would both get 40 minutes and I would have to consider both.
Jamal Murray and Gary Harris - Both players missed last night’s game, leading to 3 Nuggets being on the best possible lineup. Considering that the Wolves are a shitty defensive team, with KAT and Rose both in the bottom at defending their positions (assuming Rose plays..), if both Murray and Harris miss again, I don’t see how you can’t love Jokic (10600), who will manhandle KAT, as well as both Beasley (4400) and Monte Morris (5500) (who would be a little harder to swallow at that price, but still totally feasible). If Murray and/or Harris play, I would still probably play Beasley but not Morris at that price. No matter what, Jokic is one of the top plays on the slate.
Teague OUT, Tyus OUT, RoCo OUT, Rose QUESTIONABLE - If you played Bayless (5400) last game against Memphis, after the Wolves had just signed Canaan (3000) and made him immediately available, you made a stupid, stupid decision that made you stupid, stupid money. Just cause something is a smart, informed decision doesn’t mean it will work out. And just cause something may be straight throwing caution to the wind, doesn’t mean it can’t turn into windfall. We don’t have the same problem today since the Nuggets are not the Grizzlies. KAT (9700) has a really tough matchup against Jokic, but he should still be priced close to 11k. Even if you don’t love the spot, you have to consider him as a price play (especially if Rose is out, and his ownership still doesn’t budge). Unlike with Memphis, if Rose is out, I will also have interest in Wiggins (6300) again today, although the Canaan signing hurts him as much as it would Bayless. If Rose (5800) plays, and should see 30+ minutes, I will lock him in next to Booker. If he misses again, I have no problem playing Bayless, but I love going sneaky with another min priced player in Canaan.
CP3 DOUBTFUL - CP3 was questionable for last night’s game and, after pre-game workouts, the Rockets coach said that CP3 would play last night’s game against Denver, but would most certainly rest for the game against the Jazz. Meaning Harden (12500) will most likely be playing a game without CP3 and his price didn’t correct itself back into the 14k region. If you are worried about the Jazz, go take a look the “best possible lineup” from last night. You see Trae Young there? Guess who the Hawks went against last night? Yep, this very same Jazz team. And, without CP3, guess who will be playing the same position Trae played last night. You got that right. James Fucking Harden. I have also documented how, while Gobert is a fantastic defender, the Jazz are straight up terrible at defending against Centers (or prevent Centers from racking up fantasy points). Gobert is a detriment to someone like Harden, but does not hurt the prospects of Faried. This means I will also have a ton of interest in Faried (6700). He is a little expensive, but they will need him desperately tonight and I can’t imagine many people will be on him since they falsely think it will be a hard matchup (the fact DK says he has the hardest matchup next to his name will be a HUGE help for us there, too).
It’s good to be back. I wanted to stop writing by like midnight so I could sleep and now it’s 3am and this is my longest article so far so I’m just gonna end it there. Best of luck tonight everyone!
Warriors vs. Clippers Pick. Are the Golden State Warriors going to continue their track record of having the number of the host Los Angeles Clippers?Game time tonight is 10:30PM EST. Oddsmakers at sports book Bovada.lv have made the Warriors a 5.5-point favorite on the spread line.The over-under sits at 221 points. LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS VS. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS GAME INFORMATION Date: 1/6/20 Time: 10 p.m. ET Venue: Chase Center TV Coverage: ESPN LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS VS. Prediction: GSW have been playing well and covering the spread, the Clippers are on a back to back, I’ll take the points with the Warriors in this game. Bet: Golden State Warriors +2.5 NBA Odds ... Prediction. Clippers 121, Warriors 109. Money line (ML) PASS ON THE MONEY LINE because the Clippers are the right side but as we’ve seen numerous times already this NBA season, teams step up when their stars miss games. Granted, I don’t know who’d step up if Curry cannot play but either way I am not laying -280 for a Clippers win. Against the spread (ATS) Regardless of what Warriors head ... This game shouldn’t be particularly close. I’d double up on Clippers -6.5 and Clippers -3.5 first half, and also consider an alternate spread bet. You can get Clippers -9.5 at a +155 payout at BetMGM, which means you’ll collect $155 in winnings on a $100 bet. Prediction: Clippers 115, Magic 96 Clippers vs. Warriors NBA Picks and Predictions. Eduardo Solano ; Jan 6, 2021 at 2:45pm CST • 3 min read Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images/AFP. Paul George ... Clippers vs. Warriors Prediction: NBA Odds, Point Spread Jordan Ramsay Updated Jan 06, 2021 . Share this article. 0. SHARES. Share Tweet. The Warriors dynasty might be over, but someone forgot ... Spread: Warriors -1; Money-Line: Warriors -120 Clippers +100; Total: 230.5; Since the opener against the Lakers, the Clippers have been favored in every game thiss season. As road favorites, the club has gone 2-1 both straight up and against the spread. However, the number has flip-flopped in this game as of Wednesday morning and Golden State is now the favorite. Prior to this game, the ... Clippers vs Warriors Expert Prediction & Pick. All NBA win probability predictions ... NBA picks and predictions for the Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors for January 6. NBA betting free picks against the spread and Over/Under.
Los Angeles Clippers vs Golden State Warriors Prediction ...
Today King Rail will break down the Warriors vs Clippers Western Conference clash!Join to receive a 50% up to $1000 bonus for your first deposit only at BetO... My Twitch is @Blinxz_auThis is a way longer video than usual but i owe it to you guys due to lack of post. But i do have an excuse, because we had Christmas ... 📲 Make sure you turn on notifications 🔔 if you want to catch all of our free picks and winners! Looking for a sportsbook? Sign up with BETUS to get 125% o... LA Clippers VS Golden State Warriors Prediction NBA Season 2020-2021 ... Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Clippers NBA picks and predictions 1/8/21. The Los Angeles Clippers travel to San Francisco, CA to face the Golden State... Professional Sports Handicapper Ron Raymond of the Raymond Report has released his Free NBA Prediction on tonight’s NBA Basketball game between the Los Angel...
