Manchester United and a Positional Mess

Edit* I will edit the formatting to make it more readable soon
United’s transfer window has shown that the club is a mess from the recruitment standpoint for years but if you look at the team positional it’s been years of management and ineptitude since Sir Alex Ferguson and David Gill left the club in 2013.
*The transfer figures aren't correct because I listed estimates in $USD, will update later
*apologies for any spelling errors
Goalkeeper
When Ferguson left in 2013 United were in a good position in the goalkeeper department. David De Gea was 23 and the hype around was finally starting to show. In 2014, under Louis Van Gaal De Gea’s consistent performances put him in the upper echelon of goalkeepers in the world, he was United’s player of the season and nominated for the PFA Player’s Player of the Season that year. Unfortunately his contract was quietly winding down and the Spaniard made no effort in his hope to return to his native in Spain and join Real Madrid.
That January United had signed Victor Valdes on a free transfer and to many United fans Valdes was seen as an adequate short term replacement if and when De Gea were to leave for Madrid. Unfortunately Louis Van Gaal quickly fell out with Victor Valdes over a personal dispute over playing in a reserve game. Van Gaal vanished Valdes from the squad and quickly placed him on the transfer list. As it came increasingly likely that De Gea would leave for Madrid, United bought Sergio Romero on a free transfer more as backup. As 2015 loomed, Van Gaal made the decision to drop De Gea until the transfer window ended, going with Romero instead. At the end of the month Madrid finally ponied up the $35 million for De Gea and United agreed to sign Madrid goalkeeper Keylor Navas as a replacement. Hours later the deal ultimately fell through and De Gea decided to sign a four-year long contract extension at United.
For the next four years United’s goalkeeper situation was set, De Gea was arguably United’s most consistent performer over the next few seasons, even Sergio Romero was an adequate backup helping United win two trophies in 2017 with the Europa League and Carabao Cup. After the 2018 World Cup, De Gea suffered a poor run of form starting with Spain in Russia and ultimately continuing with United over the 2018-2019 season having his worst season at United. At the same time, De Gea was in another contract dispute, this time the goalkeeper was asking for a new contract which would make him the highest paid player at the club.United’s wage structure was disrupted with the Alexis Sanchez signing but in September 2019 De Gea signed another contract renewal though his poor formed continued for much of the 2019-2020.
United were dealt some luck with academy product Dean Henderson progressing on loan at Sheffield United and United ultimately signed Henderson to a new contract to push De Gea. Unfortunately this left Sergio Romero out in the cold. The Argentine was not made aware of United’s plans for him until late in the transfer window. United ultimately turned down a $2 million loan offer from Everton as they hoped to get close to an $8 million transfer for him. This led to Romero’s wife angrily calling the club out on social media and now United have four goalkeepers at the club totaling to nearly $500 k a week.
Centerbacks
In 2013 United’s Center Backs were Rio Ferdinand (34) and Nemanja Vidic (31), Jonny Evans (25), Phil Jones (21) and Chris Smalling (23). A year later Nemanja Vidic fell out with David Moyes and agreed to join Inter Milan on a free transfer, Rio Ferdinand was told before the last game of the season by Ed Woodward that he had no future at the club. New manager Louis Van Gaal decided that he needed to bring in a left sided defender Thomas Vermalen being his first choice, the deal ultimately fell through and United looked at Marcos Rojo after he impressed at the 2014 World Cup with Argentina.
The 2014-2015 season defensively was a mixture of consistent injuries and Van Gaal’s consistent formation tinkering. United used Rojo, Smalling, Jones, Evans, youngster Paddy McNair, and even Michael Carrick at center back that season. At their best Jones and Smalling formed a decent partnership but it was quite evident that enforcements were needed. The following season United did look at Mats Hummels and Sergio Ramos but did not pursue any deals instead , Jonny Evans joined West Brom and Van Gaal decided to play Daley Blind at center back and alter his defensive tactical approach. A year later new manager Jose Mourinho decided to purchase 22 year-old Eric Bailly for about 30 million from Villarreal. The following season Jose continued to revamp United’s center back position by purchasing another young center back 23 year-old Victor Lindelof from Benfica. Because of injuries and poor form United never truly established centerback partnership during these two seasons.
In 2018 Jose wished to purchase a third center back, this time going for an established center back like Toby Alderweirweld. Unfortunately the United hierarchy decided to go against Jose’s wish which led to massive frustrations between the manager and namely Ed Woodward. A year later and new manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer prioritized a center back a year later and paid a record 80 million for center back Harry Maguire. Chris Smalling joined Roma on loan and United finally looked to have a consistent center back partnership of Lindelof and Maguire. Maguire and Lindelof didn’t always compliment each other but United did have a defensively solid season.
Between 2017-2019 Phil Jones, Chris Smalling and Marcos Rojo were all given new contracts. You could argue that the players were given contracts less because of their performances on the pitch (Smalling may be exempt from this argument) and more to protect their transfer value. Now in 2020, Chris Smalling was sold to Roma for $15 million after months of negtoation with Roma for the paltry fee, Marcos Rojo was offered to Everton in 2019 but the club, allegedly Joel Glazer himself turned the deal down, Rojo was then loaned to his boyhood club Estudiantes in January basically for him to play and put himself in the transfer market. Unfortunately due to his high wages United have failed sell the Argentine for two years now as he has been left out of the squads Champions League Squad along with Phil Jones, who most bafflingly was offered a five-year contract in 2018. The injury prone defender is still on the medical table and couldn’t be shifted this summer as well. Instead of buying a new centerback, United will hope Eric Bailly can continue to stay fit and move on from last week’s awful performance, Axel Tuanzebe has been highly rated for the past few years, an unfortunate hip injury last October kept him out of the United squad for nearly a full calendar year but he is finally back fit, and lastly Tenden Mengi is a highly rated 18 year old from the academy.
Current Centerbacks:
Harry Maguire
Victor Lindelof
Eric Bailly
Axel Tuanzebe
Tenden Mengi
Marcos Rojo*
Phil Jones*
Left Back
Patrice Evra made a hilarious yet sad point during his appearance on Sky Sports last weekend. United haven’t had a good left back since he was at the club. In Moyes’ first season he tried to acquire Leighton Baines from Everton with an odd joint bid of him and Fellaini for $30 million which was swiftly rejected, United then agreed a loan deal for Fabio Coentrao for the deal to fall through at the last minute. A year later United spent big money on 18 year-old Luke Shaw, Louis Van Gaal told the former captain his services were no longer needed and he was sold to Juventus for $1.8m. Luke Shaw was touted to be the next big thing in England and United were hoping they had just locked down the left back position for the next decade.
Shaw was scouted by David Moyes but Louis Van Gaal was the manager at the time who approved of the deal. Van Gaal often played with wing backs which required Shaw to transition his game positionally. Van Gaal also purchased Marcos Rojo as a left sided centerback who could also play in the left back position and Daley Blind who was bought as a Defensive Midfielder but everyone saw he was equally comparable at the left wing back position for Van Gaal Dutch World Cup 2014 squad. A year on Daley Blind seemed to be United’s best left back. The following season Luke Shaw came into his own after struggling with fitness issues, Van Gaal reportedly built his entire attack around Shaw and also decided against purchasing another left back because he had so much confidence in Shaw. For a month we fans saw the potential spoke about with Luke Shaw, unfortunately a terrible leg break against PSV in September ended all that and put United’s leftback position in disarray. Blind was playing well at centerback, and Rojo was injured so Van Gaal often had to call play Matteo Darmian or Ashley out of position and he later called on academy Cameron Borthwick-Jackson. As Shaw recovered from his injury Jose Mourinho was now the new manager and never saw eye to eye with the young left back.
For the next two seasons Blind, Rojo, Young, Darmian, all featured at left back usually ahead of Shaw. The Portuguese manager wanted to sell the leftback but Woodward and the club refused. Shaw eventually won the leftback position back in 2018 and after a few good performances United rewarded him with a new contract. The following season under Solskjaer United’s leftback position finally seemed to at least be stable. Luke Shaw was first choice, and youngster Brandon Williams emerged after Shaw’s injuries and poor form in 2019. The club has finally decided to buy their first outright left back since purchasing Luke Shaw in 2014. Alex Telles joined the club on transfer deadline day for 15 million euros. At 27 United are hoping they are purchasing a player in their prime years to finally offer some consistency.
Current Leftbacks:
Alex Telles
Luke Shaw
Brandon WIlliams

Right Back
Like left back, right back has had one of the most important positional transformations in years and United were left far behind in this position as well. In 2014, Antonio Valencia transitioned from winger to right back and emerged as United’s first choice ahead of Rafael. The following season Van Gaal decided to move on from Rafael and sold the Brazilian to Lyon, United purchased Italian Matteo Darmian from Torino in what seemed like a shrewd piece of business. Darmian initially looked like a quality old school defense first fullback, but his clear weakness against the pacey winger in Premier League was quickly exploited and he never fully recovered.
2016 came when new manager Jose Mourinho got the best out of Antonio Valencia and he turned him into arguably a world class right back for that season. The following season his injuries and age lead to his regression and in 2018 the club decided to look at a new right back. There were rumors of Thomas Meunier from PSG, his contract was running down and was a self proclaimed childhood United fan. United went in a different direction purchasing 19 year old Diogo Dalot from FC Porto, a player United had mostly scouted at the U-19 level. United’s shambolic 2018/2019 was not the greatest environment for the young Portuguese right back to develop and he also dealt with injuries.
A year later Valencia left on free, Darmian was sold to Parma, and United decided to identify a new right back. United boasted about their superior scouting department by stating that they looked at nearly 400 right backs before settling on Aaron Wan-Bissaka from Crystal Palace. United spent $50 million on the young right back but he has nailed down the position and is hands down the best 1v1 defender in the league, though he is still developing in other areas. Dalot has been loaned out to AC Milan and United will play Timothy Fosu-Mensah and Brandon Williams as back up.
Current Right Backs:
Aaron Wan Bissaka
Brandon Williams
Timothy Fosu Mensah
Ethan Larid
Central Midfield
Central Midfield has been a shitshow since about 2010. Darren Fletcher unfortunately had to leave the game for nearly two seasons as he battled colitis. Anderson and Tom Cleverley were both injury prone and in 2012 United lost young academy product Paul Pogba on a free transfer to Juventus. A decision some would argue as Ferguson’s biggest mistake. Somehow though Fergie managed to win two league titles and challenge for a third with 39 year old Ryan Giggs, and 37 year old Paul Scholes who came out of retirement in 2011.
When Ferguson retired in 2013 Scholes quietly retired for a second time, Giggs became a rare player-manager and United’s priority was to reinforce the center mid. Fergie and his scouting departments had reportedly scouted Kevin Strootman, Ander Herrera, and most heavily Thiago Alcantara. United seemed ready to do a deal for Thiago who had a $20 million release clause in his contract from Barcelona. As Fergie retired he left the new manager with this same short list of players his department had scouted and done the necessary due diligence on. Instead Moyes had never seen the young Barcelona player play in person so he wasn’t sure about his abilities, he asked newly appointed assistant manager Ryan Giggs about his opinion and he famously said “he didn’t look a United player” whatever that really means.
Moyes moved on and instead was interested in another Barcelona player Cesc Fabregas. Fans and journalists questioned this move, Fabregas was an amazing player but he only just moved to Barcelona after pushing for his dream move for the last two years. Fabregas’ agent alerted Ed Woodward that the player would be interested in a move if United were to pay the $40million asking price Barcelona quoted. United spent the next few weeks lowballing Barcelona and Fabregas ultimately signed a new contract with Barcelona. United then spent the rest of the transfer window feeble attempting to enquire about players like Daniele De Rossi and Luka Modric to ultimately be rejected. United then decided to sign the Fergie scouted player Ander Herrera from Athletic Bilbao, in one of the most bizarre transfer stores in years United ultimately tried to negotiate a lower fee for the Spaniard’s buyout clause didn’t work to say the least. At the very last hour of the transfer window United offered Everton $30 million for Marouane Fellaini, oddly enough United couldn’t signed the Belgian for a discounted rate of $23 million if they acted earlier in the window. The recruitment of Fellaini and failed negotiations saw Woodward turn United into a laughing stock amongst agents and directors. A year later new manager Louis Van Gaal quickly approved the signing of Herrera this time paying his full buyout clause. Anderson, Cleverly and Fletcher moved on in 2014-2015.
Van Gaal also wanted to recruit a more defensive midfielder and United were heavily linked with Arturo Vidal, the club decided to move on after concerns about his knee (Vidal has consistently go on to play for Bayern Munich, Barcelona and now Inter). United instead looked a Van Gaal’s fellow Dutchman Daley Blind for Ajax who the fan base saw play at leftback for Van Gaal during the World Cup. While Herrera impressed it took only a few games to realize Blind did not have the pace to play as a single pivot d-mid in the premier league. At their best United’s midfield consisted of Carrick in a holding role, Herrera playing as a #8 an Fellaini in an advanced role using his running and physical presence to break up plays.
The following season Van Gaal wanted to further reinforce his midfield, Morgan Schneiderlin was purchased from Southampton and German legend Bastian Schweinsteiger joined at 31 from Bayern Munich, a move Ed Woodward said “would put shivers down the spines of opponents”. In hindsight Schweinsteiger had been injured for the past three seasons and Bayern were willing to get rid of their captain. United’s midfield was turgid and lethargic in Van Gaal’s second season and the following year United and Ed Woodward made their biggest purchase yet. For years the club had been marred by Paul Pogba’s success in Italy and allowing the young French midfielder to leave for free as he began to reach the heights of a world class generational talent. Woodward made it his priority to bring the midfielder back to United, he convinced him obviously with a massive contract and a world record transfer fee to Juventus, but also the promise of building a new quality midfield around Pogba. Manager Jose Mourinho got rid of Schenderlein in January selling him to Everton, and Schweinsteiger joined the Chicago Fire in MLS shortly after.
United began to build a midfield of Pogba, Herrera, and Fellaini in a defensive role. The following year Mourinho wanted a defensive midfielder to replace the retiring Carrick. Fabinho from Monaco was a target but Monaco did not want to sell after Mbappe, Mendy, Silva, and Bakayoko all left the club. Eric Dier was another choice which Spurs declined. United purchased Nemanja Matic from rivals Chelsea as they finished 2nd. The following season Fred was purchased for $50 million. Andreas Pereria who spent the last two seasons on loan in Spain was now back in the squad and academy product Scott Mctominay had a breakthrough season. Jose public fallout with star Pogba which started early in 2017 had fully exasperated and by December Jose was gone.
Fellaini was quickly moved on with a move to China in January, but the club failed to make a decision regarding Ander Herrera’s contract, though Solkjaer wanted to keep the Spaniard, he signed a free contract with PSG. The quality in United’s midfield was questionable, Matic was coming off a very poor season, Fred was labeled a flop in his first season by many, the debate on Pogba will go on forever and Mctominay and Pereria weren’t league challenging midfielders. United decided to not reinforce in midfield though the team was clearly lacking some creativity. During the Summer of 2019, Bruno Fernandes was heavily linked to the club though the club briefed journalists that United scouts were concerned with the amount the player lost the ball in Portugal. Six months later, United forked up the $60 million for Fernandes, the move occurred after an injury setback to Paul Pogba and a long term injury to Scott Mctominay. Fernandes was the first signing since Van Persie to truly enhance the squad and United went on their best run of form in the last season.
Andreas Pereria was loaned to Lazio and United purchased Donny Van De Beek from Ajax. This is a very exciting signing, an all around midfielder who can grow in this squad. Some have questioned the priority of the signing as the 23 year old currently isn’t in United’s strongest 11.
Current Midfield:
Bruno Fernandes
Paul Pogba
Nemanja Matic
Fred
Donny Van de Beek
Scott Mctominay
Attacking Midfielders/Wingers
Wilfried Zaha was the last player Ferguson had signed for United. The young winger electrified the Championship with Crystal Palace and looked one for the future. Unfortunately Moyes for various reasons to say the least gave up on the young player and loaned him to Cardiff City in January. Than Van Gall gave Zaha a pre season playing in LVG’s 3-5-2 system as a forward to impress, he was then loaned to former club Crystal Palace and ultimately sold on. Juan Mata was purchased in January for $40 million after he came available from Chelsea, though David Moyes played the #10 as a right midfielder for six months, but younger Adnan Januzaj was the one bright spot in an otherwise dismal season. Louis Van Gaal chopped and changed United’s attackers and wingers the following year. Nani was moved on and loaned back to his former club Sporting Lisbon. Shinji Kagawa was another player tasked to operate in an unfamiliar role as a #8 in preseason before Van Gaal discarded the Japanese player back to Borussia Dortmund.
Angel Di Maria became a target after a failed move to PSG, United spent a record $68 million for the Argentine and United fans were excited to get such a world class talent in their squad. Unfortunately Van Gaal’s formational tinkering and changing hindered Di Maria who LVG tried to continually play in different roles such as winger, attacking midfielder, wingback, and even as a forward. The player and Van Gaal fell and was gone after one season. Adnan Januzaj suffered in Van Gaal’s system and was loaned out to Borussia Dortmund and United's strongest Ashley Young played on the left and Juan Mata started on the right. United quickly reinforced the winger position with young talent Memphis Depay. United were convinced they were getting their own Eden Hazard but the Dutch player ultimately struggled. United seriously struggled for creating chances under Van Galls tactical approach the following season, but youngsters Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford flourished on the left wing and Jesse Lingard emerged as a new option on the right.
The next year under Jose, Rashford and Martial basically rotated on the left, and United purchased Bundesliga Player of the Season Henrikh Mkhitaryan to add some creativity through the middle and on the right. Memphis was moved on in January to Lyon, but United saw success with Martial, Rashford, Mata, Lingard, and Mkhitaryan. The following year Jose believed United needed another winger, an out and out winger who called cross the ball, he identified Ivan Perisic but an agreement could not be found with Inter after Woodward’s failed negotiating tactics. It became clear that United were lacking a pace and creativity on the right. Mhkitaryan failed to impress, and United were initially linked with Lucas Moura from PSG. United’s attention was quickly turned to Alexis Sanchez who United offered a massive contract and Mhkitaryan to Arsenal.
Sanchez was signed in January as marquee signing that could help narrow the gap between City and help United challenge in Europe. Sanchez from a tactical point was a questionable decision. The Chilean started his career as a right winger but has ultimately shifted to playing on the left and as a central forward at Arsenal. To fit in tactically United would either have to ask Sanchez to play in a position he hasn’t played in years, shift Rashford/Martial out of position to the right, or completely change United’s formation and use Sanchez centrally. On top of that, Sanchez’s massive wages disrupted the wage structure of United and had a lasting financial impact. Sanchez failed to deliver but United saw Martial and Rashford develop into quality players, though United’s right wing was now occupied by Lingard and Mata. In 2019, United purchased Daniel James from Swansea City. The signing was a peculiar one as the young 21 winger had only played one season as a professional but United signed him off of the recommendation of Wales manager Ryan Giggs. Sanchez was loaned to Inter Milan and United went with Rashford, James, Mata, and Lingard. James initially impressed but simply has shown that he is still developing and may not be at the level United seek. Mason Greenwood emerged playing on the right and having one of the best seasons we’ve seen from a young player since Wayne Rooney scoring 18 goals in all competitions.
Everyone could see that United could use an attacking player who could play on the right. Jose Mourinho tried to sign Gareth Bale and Willian with both moves going nowhere but in 2019 Jadon Sancho emerged at Borussia Dortmund as a generational talent. With Covid-19 impacting the financial strength of money teams United had a clear chance to sign Jadon Sancho this summer. In one of the most embarrassing and frustrating recruitments of a player by Woodward, United failed to pay the $120 million asking price by Dortmund. United ultimately missed their chance to sign Sancho and may be at the back of the line after clubs recover from Covid. United missed out on a generational talent and may rue this decision for years. Instead United recruited two young talents on deadline day deals. Facundo Pellistri was signed from Penarol in Uruguay and Amad Diallo was signed from Atalanta (joining in January 2021). Pellistri is a far cry from Sancho and United’s fast tracking of the young Uruguayan into the first team may backfire.
Wingers/Attacking Midfielders
Marcus Rashford
Juan Mata
Daniel James
Mason Greenwood
Facundo Pellistri
Forward
Fergie went out of his way to convince Robin Van Persie to join him at United and the Dutch forward delivered United’s last title in 2013. Wayne Rooney saw himself moved out of position and there were strong suggestions that Rooney would’ve left the club if Ferguson had not retired in 2013. Instead David Moyes convinced his former player that he would once again be United’s main man, frustrating Van Persie from a tactics point of view. Rooney also signed a huge five year contract making him one of the highest paid players in the premier league.
After Moyes was fired new manager Louis Van Gaal wanted to revamp United’s forward area. Javier Hernandez was loaned to Real Madrid and Danny Welbeck was sold to Arsenal. Van Gaal liked youngster James Wilson from the academy but United pulled out a major deadline day deal to sign Radamel Falcao on loan from Monaco. Falcao was one of the best number 9’s in Europe and this was seen as a massive signing. In hindsight, Falcao was coming off of his 2nd ACL injury, and the Colombian rushed himself back into fitness to be ready for the World Cup and ultimately not making it. The likes of Real Madrid, Juventus, and Manchester City turned down the chance to sign Falcao because of concern over his fitness and the massive wages he asked for, though United and Woodward were convinced to make the deal. Instead United struggled for goals, Falcao was a player returning from a bad injury and only scored 4 goals. Van Persie’s age started to show and he produced his least amount of goals as well.
The club decided against signing Falcao, and Van Gaal decided to move on from Van Persie. This left United with just Wayne Rooney who no longer could really play as a striker for a full season and youngster James Wilson who was eventually loaned out. On transfer deadline day in 2015, United paid $36 million in a deal with add-ons that could reach $50 million, the most expensive transfer fee for a teenager for the French 19 year old Anthony Martial. The signing was questioned by many at United as the forward was relatively unknown outside of France and had only played one full season of professional football. Though Martial was signed as one for the future he ended up scoring 17 goals in all competitions. United were also lucky to have seen the rise of Marcus Rashford who had a meteoric rise during the second half of the season. New manager Jose Mourinho wanted some experience with United’s attack and Zlatan Ibrahimovic came in on a free transfer at 35. Rashford and Martial were shifted out to the left but Ibrahimovic delivered at United until an untimely knee injury in April occured. With Zlatan out long term, and Jose not ready to trust Martial or Rashford, United spent $75 million on Romelu Lukaku with Wayne Rooney returning to his boyhood Everton.
Lukaku initially impressed and had an above average goal record at United with 42 goals in 96 appearances but his goal scoring droughts and style were not for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and in 2019 United sold Lukaku to Inter for $70 million. Solskjaer was ready to trust Martial and Rashford as the two young forwards had impressed enough to out and out starters. United decided to not pursue a Lukaku replacement and instead bring 17 year old talent Mason Greenwood into the squad. Injuries hindered the 2019-2020 season and with Marcus Rashford getting a long term back injury the club decided on a Janury transfer day deadline move for Odion Igahlo playing his trade in China on a short term loan deal. The deal was questioned by many, United had been linked with acquiring another forward initially over the summer the likes of Dybala and Mandzuicic were linked but never moved. During the fall, Norweigan striker Errling Braut Halland announced himself to Europe at Salzburg and Solkjsaer was adamant on bringing his former player at Molde to United. The deal eventually fell through after United failed to negotiate due to agent fees and a buyout clause and Halland (rightly) joined Borussia Dortmund.
For the next few months Martial and Greenwood truly started to emerge especially after the signing of Bruno Fernandes. Igahlo looked good in a few cup games but clearly hasn’t shown enough to be a key contributor off the bench. United then decided to pull a transfer deadline move for 33 year old Edison Cavani. A move baffling to many people as it seems like another short sighted expensive signing.
Forwards:
Anthony Martial
Edison Cavani
Odion Igahlo
Mason Greenwood
Marcus Rashford

Fred VanVleet is a Silver Bullet for the Mavs Roster

2020 Offseason Review: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Division: NFC South (7-9 2nd in the Division)
Head Coach: Bruce Arians
Offensive Coordinator: Byron Leftwich
Defensive Coordinator: Todd Bowles

Intro: Let me Get Something off my Chest

A couple of months ago, I wrote the Buccaneers 32 Teams/32 Days Post. Looking back a it, I’m sticking to my guns on most of my analysis. There’s just…one….little….thing….we need to talk about. Regarding Jameis’s pending free agent status, I said:

There's also the question of QB. Jameis is also a UFA and I'd say there's a...40% chance we re-sign him. So who replaces him, and would an aging veteran QB like Brady or Rivers really be a marked improvement?

[Sneezes in Boston accent]
The answer is yes, Fencing Coach, you fawkin dumbass!
Did you really think that Jameis Winston was a bettah option than Tawm Fawkin’ Brady 6-time supah bowl champion and enemy of Rawjuh Fawkin’ Goodell? You were fawkin’ wrong!
Admit to the good people of Aw/NFL that you wuh just another paht of the fake news media that tried to say Tawm Bwady deflated the footballs and that Bill Belichick used the video cameras for the SpyGates!
And who would have evah guessed that we’d end up with Gronk! What a yeeyah! What an offseason you fawkin’ pessimist! We got the GOAT! Get ya Covid immunity TB12 pills and shove ‘em up yuh asshole!
[Snaps out of it]
Okay, now that I’ve gotten that off my chest, let’s get serious for a moment. This is the final Hail Mary of the underwhelming Jason Licht era, and aggressive moves were made this offseason, because the excuses have finally run out.
Since taking over the team in 2014, Jason Licht is on his third head coach (to be fair, Lovie Smith was not his choice) and only has a 34-62 (.35) record to show for, 0 playoff appearances, and only one winning season.
Meanwhile, a select list of his GM peers hired since include:

Brett Veach (Chiefs – Hired 2017): Super Bowl Champions, 3x playoff appearances, 34-14 record.
John Lynch (49ers – Hired 2017): NFC Champions, 23-25 record.
John Robinson (Titans – Hired 2016): 2x Playoff Appearances (Lost divisional in 2019), 36-28 record.
Brandon Beane (Bills – Hired 2017): 2x Playoff Appearances, 25-23 record.

Big moves were made this offseason at the Quarterback position, bringing in a certain 6th round pick out of Michigan to compete with the ethereal and legendary Blaine Gabbert. Jameis was shown the door. And the result is about a case of beer’s worth of cap space and little depth across the roster. Buckle your Bucs, this is going to be a helluvah ride.

2020 Outlook

Hard to believe that I’m now in Year 6 of writing these offseason reviews for Tampa, and outside of 2017 where I was wildly off on predicting our record, I’ve managed to fall within one victory/loss in each of the other four. The past two seasons, I’ve predicted our exact record. While Covid delays could impact the 2020 season itself, I predict the Tom Brady Bucs will go 10-6, win the wild card, and lose in the Divisional round.

Year	My Prediction	Actual
2015	7-9	6-10
2016	10-6	9-7
2017	10-6	5-11
2018	5-11	5-11
2019	7-9	7-9
2020	10-6	???

Things I Like About the Bucs in 2020

The Defense: The Bucs finished 2019 with the top ranked run defense, led by beefy Tevita Tuliʻakiʻono Tuipulotu Mosese Vaʻhae Fehoko Faletau Vea. Sack Ferret had a breakout year and led the league in sacks, and Jason Pierre-Paul added 8.5 sacks off the edge despite starting only 8 games. Our ILB unit of Lavonte David and Devin White should be among the best tandems in the league. GM Jason Licht has drafted a fine trio of CB’s in Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and Jamel Dean, and the addition of Antoine Winfield Jr. will add an instant performer. Suddenly, defense isn’t a concern when it’s been in the past.
People on Offense who Touch the Football Through the Air: If you told me a few months ago that Tom Brady would be throwing footballs in Tampa to Rob Gronkowski, I would have recommended you go see a shrink. But in the year 2020, anything happens. The receiving corps of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate, and OJ Howard is the best in the NFL, and I can’t be convinced otherwise.

Things That Scare me About the Bucs in 2020:

The Kicking Game: Matt Gay was a 77.1% kicker as a rookie and missed big in some clutch situations. The Jason Licht era has brought in names like Roberto Aguayo, Nick Folk, Chandler Catanzaro, Kyle Brindza, and Cairo Santos (to name a few). None have gotten the job done. Kicker simply can’t be a liability. Gay has to get that % up to the high 80’s. Kickers have lost us numerous games in the last few years. We’re becoming the Minnesota Vikings of the NFC South. A team will only be as strong as its weakest link, and the kicking link has been dreadful.
People on Offense who Run the Football: I’m not sold on Ronald Jones, mostly because his blocking is still horrid and his vision is suspect. He also goes down if he gets hit with the force of a butterfly landing on his shoulder. Shady McCoy was brought in at the veteran minimum, but he was old enough to fight in the Revolutionary War. 3rd round pick Ke’Shawn Vaughn’s ceiling seems like a low one to me and he crosses me more as a utility back than a feature one (more on him in the draft analysis section). The running game is far less important in the NFL of the 2020’s, but there isn’t anyone on this roster who I think can carry the load.
People on Offense who are Supposed to Protect Tom Brady from Dying: Donovan Smith improved in 2019 from abysmal to below average, but below average is what people like Cameron Jordan make mincemeat out of. Tristan Wirfs is a rookie, and rookie OT’s are liabilities more often than not. Ali Marpet is still a stud, and Ryan Jensen improved mightily in year 2 in Tampa. Alex Cappa (RG) is a work in progress and it’s too early to dismiss the guy yet, but progress needs to be made there. For Brady’s sake, this unit has to keep him upright. 43 year olds aren’t meant to withstand hits made with the force of an 18-wheeler.

2020 Draft Analysis

Round/Pick	Player	Analysis
Round 1, #13 Overall	Tristan Wirfs (RT – Iowa)	Admittedly, I always struggle with evaluating OL positions. I thought Chance Warmack, Robert Gallery, and Jason Smith were generational talents. They were far from that. So take what I have to say with a grain of salt, and listen to people like Barian_Fostate who did an excellent breakdown of Wirfs and Jedrick Wills, with the evaluation noting some glaring flaws in Wirfs’ footwork and hand technique. There’s no denying that Wirfs’ athletic ability is deity level batshit. At 6’5, 320 pounds, he ran a 4.86 forty at the Combine, had a 36.5” vertical, and a 10’1 broad jump. Not to mention, the kid can straight up jump out of a pool and casually hang clean 500 pounds. I wanted to watch how Wirfs performed against some of his incoming peers in the NFL, so I watched his matchup against Pedophilia State University to see how he’d fare against Yetur Gross-Matos, 2nd round pick of the Panthers and future division opponent. The results were…underwhelming. YGM brought constant pressure throughout the game, and seemed to have Wirfs beat from his first step onward, but in the same game, his ability in the run game was eye opening (Example). But then you had cases of sheer lack of awareness on blitzes and also stunts that showed deep areas of weakness for Wirfs. One way or another, this was a necessary pick, and even if he doesn’t pan out at RT, Wirfs’ athleticism and gifted abilities in the run game will make him a long-term key part of the Bucs and a potential Guard candidate.
Round 2, #45 Overall	Antoine Winfield Jr. (S – Minnesota)	Antoine Winfield Jr.’s entrance into the league was a “you’re an old man” moment for us Redditors in our 30’s who grew up watching his “Hall of Very Good” father. This was a pretty pick. While Winfield is of course a safety, the very first thing that stood out to me watching his tape was his pass rush ability. Yes, his pass rush ability. The first couple of clips I put on of Winfield had him perfectly timing a snap from the box and immediately in the backfield by the time the QB had the ball in his hands. The second thing that stood out was his nose for the ball, particularly in clutch situations. As Joe Theismann simply stated: “big players make big plays,” and that couldn’t have been more true of Winfield, who had big time game saving interceptions against both Fresno State and Penn State. Winfield was my favorite pick of the Buccaneers draft class, and what he lacks in size he makes up for in speed and an excellent nose for the ball. Keep an eye out for this one.
Round 3, #76 Overall	Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB – Vanderbilt)	Ke’Shawn Vaughn was one of the harder players to scout from this Buccaneer class, simply because it looked like he would have been better off with an offensive line of obese, beefy toddlers than whatever Vanderbilt rolled out for him. Nearly every snap I viewed of him, he rarely had a clean hole and was hit in the backfield the moment he touched the ball. Like, seriously, what is this? Vaughn’s biggest strengths to me showed up on tape with designed outside runs. Between the tackles, he showed little elusiveness, and a similar issue I saw with former Buccaneer pick Jeremy McNichol is that Vaughn tended to make multiple cuts before turning upfield. Not a good thing. Unlike a glaring weakness I saw in McNichols’ complete inability to block, it’s an area where Vaughn succeeded with flying colors. This, along with his adequate pass catching abilities (28 receptions for 270 yards in 2019) will make him a valuable 3rd down back in the beginning of his career (assuming RoJo is anointed the feature back). There are some traits in a RB that can’t be coached, like vision. There are other things like running upright with high pad level, a weakness I frequently saw with Vaughn that can be taught. Vaughn crosses me as a valuable utility player who may get looks as a feature back should RoJo continue to struggle. The value was there with his 3rd round selection, but expectations for his upside should be kept in check.
Round 5, #161 Overall	Tyler Johnson (WR – Minnesota)	A lot of the Buccaneers crew is pretty high on the Tyler Johnson pick. Pro Football Focus (PFF) had him top 50 on their big board and a Round 2 grade. I just don’t see it. Not at all, in fact. For a guy who stands at a mere 6’1 and is expected to play slot receiver, his speed and separation stand out as glaring weaknesses on tape. What I do like however, is his footwork coming off the line. Most of the time he’d beat his receivers within the first 5-7 yards off the line, but when it came to the deep ball I didn’t see a lot of “wow” factor. Tyler Johnson, I think, will be a reserve WR, which is exactly what you want from a 5th round pick. But I don’t see him as the massive steal many other fans did.
Round 6, #194 Overall	Khalil Davis (DT – Nebraska)	Played alongside his twin brother Carlos at Nebraska (who went one round later to the Steelers). I watched Davis’s game against Wisconsin and he looked to me like he’d fit best as a backup 5-tech. Not particularly explosive with a slow first step, and there were numerous occasions when he did penetrate the backfield but had terrible angles on the RB. Mind you, he was playing against Jonathan Taylor and a stalwart OL, but you want to see flashes of brilliance, even against good competition. Did not see anything that made me say: “this guy’s going to make our final roster.”
Round 7, #241 Overall	Chapelle Russell (LB – Temple)	I was able to find little tape of Russell, but one area where I do trust Jason Licht is in his ability to scout LB’s. I’m not going to pretend I know anything about Russell. I don’t.
Round 7, #245 Overall	Raymond Calais (RB – Louisiana Lafayette)	Calais’s best shot to make the roster will likely be as a return man, where he excelled at Louisiana Lafayette. Based on the limited tape I saw of him, I saw flashes of Felix Jones for his ability to get big gains off of draw plays in the shotgun. Obviously a longshot to make the roster.

Schedule Predictions

Week	Opponent	Prediction	Analysis
Week 1	@Saints	27-24 Bucs (1-0)	Bucs pass rush finds a way to get to Brees. Fun fact: this will be the oldest matchup of QB’s ever in NFL history…until the Bucs play the Saints again in week 9.
Week 2	Panthers	34-20 Bucs (2-0)	Panthers are no doubt in rebuild mode right now. In the past two matchups, Bucs run game has managed to stifle Christian McAffrey. Keep an eye on rookie Yetur Gross-Matos. I think he’ll have a more immediate impact than even 1st round pick Derrick Brown.
Week 3	@Broncos	37-28 Bucs (3-0)	Always a challenge to play at Mile High on the road, but I think the Bucs defense will manage to shut down a young and budding Broncos offense. On a Broncos note, I’ll never understand Jeudy being the 2nd WR off the board (let alone the 2nd Bama receiver taken). Best route runner I’ve seen enter the league since OBJ.
Week 4	Chargers	28-21 Chargers (3-1)	No, I’m not too high on Justin Herbert, but when the Bucs play a rookie QB, I’m usually prone to pick the other team. For some reason, no matter the Head Coach and/or defensive coordinator, the Bucs crumple into fetal position against rookies.
Week 5	@Bears	31-13 Bucs (4-1)	If Foles’ performance against the Bucs last year is any indication, they have his number. Pray that Mitch Trubisky doesn’t start. In his last outing against Tampa, he threw 6 TD’s. He did that as a rookie, mind you. Remember what I said about Bucs against rookie QB’s?
Week 6	Packers	28-24 Packers (4-2)	Rumors of Aaron Rodgers’ demise are greatly exaggerated. It’s a team that’s just complete enough on both sides of the ball that I find it surprising so many are writing them off.
Week 7	@Raiders	34-31 Bucs (5-2)	Here’s another team that is starting to form well under the cracker Mike Mayock. Raiders will be as good as Carr is in Gruden’s offense, and while he improved somewhat in Chucky’s offense by the end of year 2, this is a team at the tipping point between playoffs and an outright QB replacement.
Week 8	@Giants	37-17 Bucs (6-2)	Though rookie Daniel Jones (sense a trend here?) shredded the Bucs with gusto last year, Bucs run defense should be able to neutralize Saquon, and despite a good rookie showing, I don’t have much faith in the long term prospects of Daniel Jones.
Week 9	Saints	20-17 Saints (6-3)	Can usually count on the Saints and Bucs to split the division series. And once again, the oldest QB matchup ever. Put on some episodes of MASH. Get your Bingo cards ready. It’s geriatric QB time.
Week 10	@Panthers	41-21 Bucs (7-3)	Will there be a season by this point? I don’t know. But I still like the Bucs to sweep the series with the Panthers this season.
Week 11	LA Rams	24-17 Rams (7-4)	Rams offense is all of a sudden looking less like the powerhouse it was from a few years ago, but their defense is still nasty. Aaron Donald will make any QB poop their pants, including Tom Brady. This will be a violent defensive battle and I think the Rams will take the edge.
Week 12	Chiefs	37-27 Chiefs (7-5)	For years on NFL going back to his time at Texas Tech, I told you all to get on board the Mahomes canoe. Love seeing him already building his Madden legacy. I’m just not going to bet against him right now.
Week 13	Bye	N/A	I have no way of confirming this, but I’m fairly certain during the bye week Bruce Arians clears out his office and runs an illegal cockfighting ring with his assistant coaches. You can’t convince me I’m wrong.
Week 14	Vikings	31-28 Bucs (8-5)	Vikings remain a balanced team on offense and defense and the Zim Zamm still can’t be flim flammed. Close game here that will be a defensive battle with a few big time plays on offense sprinkled in.
Week 15	Falcons	34-27 Falcons (8-6)	I’m glad to see Raheem Morris back in a DC position after seeing him work his way back up the coaching ranks. Always one of my favorite Buccaneer coaches despite his (many) flaws. I pick the Falcons in our first matchup because of one man and only one man: Julio Jones. Jones has now played a full 16 games in his career against Tampa, coming up with a staggering 116 catches for 1,841 yards and 11 TD’s. That’s cruelty.
Week 16	Lions	41-14 Bucs (9-6)	I have a feeling by this point in the season, Fat Patricia will be one of the first Head Coaches fired and the Lions will be staffed by Interim Head Coach Darrell Bevell. The Bucs will be playing a team with a wounded ego ready to be put down like Old Yeller.
Week 17	Falcons	28-3 Bucs (10-6)	Bucs fight hard to squeak into the playoffs, their first appearance since 2007.

Final Projection: Bucs win wild card, lose in the Divisional Round

Projected Starting Lineup & Analysis: Offense

QB- Tom Brady: See above analysis. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 4,438 yards, 67.1% completion percentage, 33 TD’s, 13 INT’s
WR1 – Mike Evans: At only 26 years old, Mike Evans already sits at 128th all-time on the career receiving yards list, and has a chance to pass [checks notes] Michael Crabtree on the all-time list this season. In every season in the league, Evans has surpassed 1,000 yards and has become a hallmark of consistency, even with the suspect supporting cast around him. Having an accurate QB for the first time in his career will be a huge benefits to Evans. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 70 receptions, 1,213 yards, 6 TD’s
WR2 – Chris Godwin: Godwin had a brilliant breakout last season, earning 2nd Team All-Pro honors (that probably would have been 1st team had his season not been cut short by injury). While Evans might be the bigger threat, Godwin is among the most complete receivers in the league. A fantastic route runner with sure hands—and perhaps his most overlooked quality is his blocking. Find me a WR who does it better right now. You won’t. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 77 receptions, 1,387 yards, 7 TD’s
RB – Ronald Jones: RB is one of the few positions where fans can reasonably expect instant production from a player when he transitions from the college ranks to the pros. As a rookie, RoJo was a mega dud who could barely find the field in the Koetter era. He took a huge step forward in year 2 (724 yards, 4.2 ypc) but still often disappeared in games and lacked the pass protection skills that are so necessary in Arians’ offense. RoJo will have Vaughn to take off some of his workload, but I still see RoJo as one of the weakest links on an otherwise complete offense. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 808 Rushing yards (4.2 YPC), 5 TD’s
TE – Rob Gronkowski: See above analysis. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 41 receptions, 614 yards, 6 TD’s
LT – Donovan Smith: Donovan Smith provides as much protection as Jeffrey Epstein’s guards when he was on suicide watch. While Tom Brady tends to release the ball far faster than Winston, the Arians offense designed for Brady better be getting the ball out fast. 43 year old QB’s aren’t meant to take the kinds of hits Winston did. Let’s hope that Tristan Wirfs is able to prove himself a viable option on the left side. We’ll be able to get out of Donovan Smith’s contract after this season with no cap ramifications. On a side note, there’s a decent change Donovan Smith will opt out of his contract due to Covid concerns. And I wouldn’t blame him one bit.
LG – Ali Marpet: Marpet continues to be the most reliable piece of our OL. Like Lavonte, a continually unheralded player who you can rely on to go toe-to-toe with the league’s best interior DL while manhandling the dregs of the NFL. I thought last season would be Marpet’s shot at a 2nd Team All-Pro, but he was passed over once again. Love Marpet.
C – Ryan Jensen: Jensen’s first year with the team was free agent bust material. He seemed to thrive more in the Arians offense and we saw marked improvement in all facets of his game last year. Overpaid for his value? Definitely. Living up more and more to the contract we gave him? Yup.
RG – Alex Cappa: When Jason Licht rolled the dice on small school Humboldt State product Alex Cappa, he may have been expecting the next Ali Marpet. In his first full season as a starter, there were things to be encouraged by and I’m a little more bullish on Cappa than most of the fan base. Though he allowed 31 pressures on 562 pass snaps (roughly 6% pressure rate), I saw Cappa’s confidence growing as the season went on. His third season will tell us what his true ceiling in this league is. Right now, his floor isn’t Garrett Gilkey, but his ceiling ain’t Earl Grey.
RT – Tristan Wirfs: See above analysis.

Projected Starting Lineup & Analysis: Defense

EDGE – Sack Ferret: The Sack Ferret was brought on a 1 year, $4 million deal last season. I predicted he’d be a 5.5 sack guy and then probably hit free agency again. Just like we all expected, he went off and led the league in sacks with 19.5 (more than his previous five years in the league combined) and earned himself the franchise tag. Barrett has quickly become a fan favorite, and while I don’t see him replicating his majestic 2019 season, I still think he’ll be the same terror he’s been off the edge. Probably wrong projected stats: 12.5 sacks.
0-Tech - Tevita Tuliʻakiʻono Tuipulotu Mosese Vaʻhae Fehoko Faletau Vea: Running on the Buccaneers in 2019 was damn near impossible, so much so that the team only allowed 73.8 rushing yards per game. That success started up front with Vita Vea, who has quickly emerged as the league’s top 0-tech. Unfortunately, like his forefathers in Vince Wilfork and Casey Hampton, he’s likely to spend his career as a valuable defensive cog who receives few to no career accolades due to the “unsexiness” of being a two-gap space eating defender. So NFL, here’s a homework assignment for you. Watch Vea on All-22 if you have some time while on Covid lockdown. You will see one of the most absurdly athletic big men in the league who is your definition of immovable object. His progress last year was a joy to watch and he’s quickly becoming one of my favorite players. Oh, and he’s the best TE on the Bucs. By far. Probably wrong projected stats: 2.5 sacks, 2 receiving TD’s.
5-Tech – Ndamukong Suh: We brought Suh back on another 1 year deal. No, he’s not the player he once was (he’s even refrained from curbstomping genitals in Tampa…so far), but his attitude he sets on the field has been a welcome change compared to the namby-pamby milquetoasts on our DL from the past. Suh’s value will come mostly in the run game. His sack producing days are long gone. Probably wrong projected stats: 3.5 sacks.
EDGE – Jason Pierre-Paul: It’s [checks notes] August, and Jason Pierre-Paul hasn’t had an offseason accident. Praise the football Gods. Despite starting in only 8 games last year due to a serious auto accident, JPP managed 8.5 sacks. At 31, father time hasn’t quite caught up with him yet. Probably wrong projected stats: 9.5 sacks.
ILB – Lavonte David: The good part of Lavonte David bouncing inside last season to Will is that he no longer got grouped in the same bucket as sack-producing 3-4 OLB’s who beat him out for All-Pro nods nearly every year. Even at 30, Lavonte only seems to be getting better, and his instincts and smarts continue to essential to the defense. Though Lavonte is one half of the Mike tandem and has been one of the league’s best LB’s’ for all of 8 seasons, I don’t think he’s going to be the centerpiece stud. Keep Devin White’s name at the forefront of your mind, which leads me to... Probably wrong projected stats: 3.5 sacks, 3 INT’s
ILB – Devin “Get Live 45” White: If you’ve read any of my posts here for the last 5+ years, you would see I don’t take a blind homer approach with player evaluation. Not once have I predicted a Buccaneer would win the MVP award, nor have I predicted a Buccaneer would win DPOY. In fact, only once have I ever predicted we’d be a playoff team. Now that preamble is done, let me say it outright: Devin White is going to win Defensive Player of the Year in Year 2. What? Mikes never win, you say. And you’d be mostly correct. In fact, Vegas odds don’t even have Devin White listed in their top 10. Here’s what I saw from Devin White in the last half of his rookie season: an absolutely insane nose for forcing the fumble, excellent pass rush abilities, and smarts that put him in the backfield often before the RB even had the ball in his hands. I saw enough from him to believe his leap in year 2 is going to be similar to that of Luke Kuechly’s where he won DPOY in his second year in the league. Wherever the ball is, Devin White will be there. You’re going to see one of the league’s dominant defensive enforcers for a long, long time. Probably wrong projected stats: 6.0 sacks, 5 INT’s, 6 FF’s.
FS – Antoine Winfield Jr.: See above analysis. I think we’re also going to see Justin Evans get cut Probably wrong projected stats: 2.0 sacks, 2 INT’s
SS – Jordan Whitehead: Jordan White is the most underrated player on the Buccaneers defense, in my eyes. No, not Lavonte, because people talk about how underrated he is all the time to the point he’s not so underrated anymore. Whitehead’s mistakes went down drastically last year and he has a knack for being where the football is. Really like him and could see some big plays from him this season. Probably wrong projected stats: 1.0 sacks, 3 INT’s
CB – Carlton Davis: Bruce Arians doesn’t give empty praise, but he recently called Carlton Davis a top ten CB in the league, an assessment I’m inclined to agree with. He was battle tested big time in year 2, getting targeted 105 times and only allowing 52.4% of those balls thrown his way to be completed. He was able to shadow the best, and his 18 pass breakups are indicative of a guy with great awareness. And the funny thing is, he’s not even the CB I’m highest on with this roster. Probably wrong projected stats: 4 INT’s
CB – Jamel Dean: For a guy who came in as a 3rd round rookie, Dean exceeded expectations and then some. His first game as a starter came against the Seahawks, there’s no sugarcoating it—he got owned. But what I saw was a guy who stayed stride for stride with his receiver with little help over the top. By the end of his rookie season, he was looking like a shutdown corner. This is the CB I’m most excited for in 2020. Kid’s got a bright future. Probably wrong projected stats: 3 INT’s
CB – Sean Murphy-Bunting: When I’m wrong, I admit I’m helluh wrong, and with Murphy-Bunting, I was helluh wrong. Yes, it’s been only one season and things could still go south, but I was baffled when we passed on Greedy Williams in favor of SMB.

Non-Buccaneer Predictions for the Season

My 2018 breakout player prediction was Patrick Mahomes. Last year, it was Joshua Jacobs and Corey Davis (oops). This year, you need to watch J.K. Dobbins (rookie, Baltimore), N’Keal Harry (2nd year, NE). Perhaps not a true breakout, but I think Calvin Ridley will surpass 1,000 yards and become an even bigger complement to Julio Jones.
MVP will go to Russ Wilson. DPOY will go to Devin White (and if you’ve been reading these posts long enough you know I don’t usually go the homer approach). OPOY will go to Patrick Mahomes. COTY will go to Cliff Kingsbury.
The NFC Championship will be played between the 49ers and the Cowboys. The Cowboys will win. The AFC Championship will be played between the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots. The Chiefs will win. The Chiefs will repeat in the Super Bowl, defeating the Cowboys.
Last year I wrote: “Sam Darnold isn’t going to amount to much as an NFL QB. Not this year, and probably not ever.” I’ll repeat it this year too. But let me add one guy to that list: Tua Tagovailoa.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire isn’t the superstar you think he is. I think his career will wind up like Joseph Addai’s: a guy who had a few flash in the pan seasons but never among the top backs. That’s not a bad thing, I would just cool expectations on him.
The teams with the highest potential to land a top 5 pick, in no particular order: Lions, Jaguars, the Washington Football team (I feel like an idiot even typing that), Bears, Jets. Dark Horse: Eagles.
Coaches who have the hottest seats: Fat Patricia, Dan Quinn, Adam Gase, Doug Marrone, Bill O’Brien (as coach and GM).

Shoutouts

Shoutouts to my fellow mods on Buccaneers and NFL. It's a pleasure working with you all every day and shooting the shit with dank memes. And of course, much love to platypusofdeath who puts an insane amount of work into this series every year. Thank you for all you do.

Inputs for The International Battle Pass 2020 (& Future Battle Passes)

We all know that this year's Battle Pass, especially in the middle of the current situation (COVID-19 pandemic), is very greedy. In addition, those with limited abilities to purchase a lot of stuff either due to having no money to shell out or currency exchange rates being awful cannot possibly reach high levels like 500 or 600 without spending an arm and leg.
Something has to change. We need an improvement, or a rework.

DISCLAIMER

I've been buying The International Compendium / Battle Pass for 5 years (with the exception of 2020), and while the rewards are "improving" each year, due to corporate greed and/or other factors, I cannot reach the maximum possible level for every prestige reward.
Take everything I say with generous amounts of salt.

SECTION 1 - The Problems of the Current Battle Pass

The International Battle Pass 2020 begins at Level 1, and "ends" at Level 2000 (Baby Roshan). This is a LOT of levels and Battle Pass points - around 2 million to be exact. What this means is that you need a metric fuckton of money, lots of patience, and apparent lack of both sleep and sanity to reach Level 2000.
You don't even need to reach Level 2000 though, the final reward this year is Level 525 (575?), which is the highest of any non-treasure exclusive reward in any of Battle Passes (the ill-fated Promise of Eminent Revival was Level 600+).
Doesn't make it any easier to grind them all, however, as the missions in 2016-2019 gave very little.

SECTION 1a - Progression Issues

Progression in 2019's Battle Pass consists of wagering, predictions and completing the Cavern Crawl (reskinned and nerfed). Unfortunately, the progression is limited to more or less the same methods, and the only reliable way to further the progress is to somehow manage to get perfect predictions, get max possible rewards from wagering, get to <1% percentile in Fantasy, among others.

SECTION 1b - The Existence of a Very Useful Glitch

People who can afford it can very easily afford the Battle Pass Levels Bundle, giving a ton of levels and Treasures. It can also be bought multiple times due to a glitch, despite the splash saying "only once per account".

SECTION 1c - What Happens to Level 1, Then?

If you're a player who bought the Battle Pass from Level 1, tough luck. Obviously, my max levels shouldn't be taken as benchmarks since people are obviously better than me at grinding, but you will have a very hard time reaching Gold Tier from Level 1. Forget the WR Arcana this year, you won't get it unless you grind and/or buy extra levels.

SECTION 2 - Proposed Rework

This is where everything gets interesting. Instead of having 2000 levels of content, why not restrain it to 500 levels to make everything accessible? Condense rewards if possible.
DOTA 2's biggest problem is content exclusivity, which means if you can't get the rewards this year, good luck finding them 2nd hand, especially the Collector's Cache sets and the Prestige items. I've missed out almost every prestige item due to this content exclusivity issue and horrendously inflated Battle Pass level thresholds (and lack of accomplishment granted by leveling up).

SECTION 2a - Level Condensation

Here's what the 500 Level plan looks like for my TI11 Suggestion:

Content	Level	Explanation
Initial Content	1	Includes Music Pack, Immoral Treasure I, II, III x 1, 16 Arcana Votes, 5 Player Card Packs, 1 Premium Player Card Pack
Treasures	Every 2 levels starting from 3	Levels 3-13: Treasure I Levels 15-25: Treasure II Levels 27-37: Treasure III Level 39+: Treasure I, II and III, in order, repeating Very Rare reward replaced with what would usually go to Ultra Rare. Ultra Rare reward is an Archivist's Token, which unlike past years' rewards benefit less from Escalating Odds.
Effects	Between 2 and 815	These rewards include Fountain, Bottle, Blink, Teleport etc. effects.
Arcana Votes	16, 34	Adds another 16 votes to use in the Arcana Vote.
Tributes	1, 12, 25, 37, 50...	Level 1-100: 250 pts. Tributes Level 112-200: 500 pts. Tributes Level 212+: 1000 pts. Tributes
Chat Wheel Voice Packs	Between 55 and 515	Level 55 is sound effects pack. Level 515 is Epic Casters pack.
Announcer	49	Includes Announcer and Mega-Kills.
Other Content	Wherever empty	Includes Player Card packs, Rylai's Battle Wheel, bonus Pachinko balls and consumable bundles.
River Vials	24, 51, 83, 134, 218, 353, 612, 715, 965	Chrome, Dry, Oil, Electric, Slime, Potion, Blood, Acid & Stygian, Ravine & Magma (Note: Last 4 are completely made up)
Prestige Tokens	Every 80 levels, starting with Level 120	Allows redemption of one Prestige Item from the past The International Battle Passes, with the exception of World Chasm Artifact. If all are redeemed, it can instead be consumed to give 5 Levels. Original-run items receive "Exalted" rarity (i.e. Exalted Hell-Spar Anathema).
Archivist's Tokens	Ultra Rare drop from Immortal Treasures	Allows redemption of ANY Collector's Cache set (including past years), with the quality "Archived". Items with this quality cannot be Traded or put on SCM, and can only be gifted once. It can also be consumed for 5 Levels.
Trust of the Benefactor	50 (then every 15 levels from here onwards)	First Trust of the Benefactor at Level 50 (start of Silver Tier). Rarities of the Benefactor odds are adjusted from a fixed number to indescribably rare odds (1/25000 or less).
Prestige 1	125	Prestige Item I. Persona or Immortal. Untradeable and Unmarketable.
Prestige 2	175	Prestige Item II. Persona, Immortal or Arcana. Untradeable and Unmarketable.
Prestige 3	225	Prestige Item III. Arcana only. Untradeable and Unmarketable.
Prestige 4	275	Prestige Item IV. Arcana only. Untradeable and Unmarketable.
Aegis Tier	500	Aegis of the Champions replica, 1/5 scale. Not redeemable unless you have this many levels. Includes Aegis effect.
Promise of Eminent Revival II	895	Includes 25x Immortal style infusers and 15x Immortal Treasure(s), I through III (5 of each). Immortals from this year can be infused with 5 different colors (Red, Blue, Green, Purple, Gold).
Baby Roshan Tier	1000	Baby Roshan statuette. Not redeemable unless you have this many levels. Includes Roshan reskin and courier.

As you can see, Aegis and Roshan tier level requirements have been slashed in half, all Prestige items are now more easily attainable, and if you did miss a Prestige item from previous years, you can redeem them with the tokens you get starting at Level 120 (and every 80 levels hereafter). If you already own said items, their quality will be updated to "Exalted" (similiar to purchaseable Arcanas when they first come out).
Immortal Treasures levels can be spread out (admittedly, they're a bit too condensed), same with Trust of the Benefactor, but now you have a shot at getting every prestige reward, even if you missed out on some, by merely grinding away.
Promise of Eminent Revival II needs input.

Section 2b - Gaining Battle Pass Points

I need another table for this.

Action	Explanation	Reward (BP Points)
Wagering	Receive Battle Pass points for every successful wageprediction. Consecutive successful predictions increase point reward. Failed predictions give 25 points.	100 + (25 * 'prediction streak') OR 25
Tribute Tokens	Tribute Tokens can be consumed to add 100, 250, 500 or 1000 additional points. Only successful predictions will be rewarded.	100, 250, 500, 1000 (if successful)
Missions	Hero-specific or non-specific missions that give out rewards.	Tier I (Easy): 200; Tier II (Normal): 400; Tier III (Hard): 600; Hero Specific: 1.5x the usual value (300, 600, 900)
Cavern Crawl	Complete a node with each hero to progress deeper into the caverns.	30 nodes, containing 200; 8 nodes, containing 1000; 3 nodes (final nodes), containing 2000 in addition to sets; remaining nodes contain numerous items
Predictions	Predictions in The International main event.	Varies
Fantasy League	Self-explanatory.	Varies
Pachinko (i.e. Lina's Fiery Balls)	Every week, you will receive exactly 1 Pachinko ball (can be stacked) to play for a shot at 50 BP levels.	100, 300, 600, 2400, 50000
The International Community Goals	Like TI6, all players will have to complete a common goal to earn rewards for all players.	3000 per goal
The International Stretch Goals	Like TI5, all players will have to join forces and contribute as much as they can to increase the prize pool for exclusive rewards.	Depends on implementation

Stretch goals can be content that is not announced in the initial pass but rather be completely separate goals that players can work towards to unlock. For example, 20M$ goal can be Immortal Treasure IV, 30M$ is a prestige item for everyone, etc. instead of just 10 levels.
Of course, it can also give varying amounts of levels.

Section 3 - Battle Pass/D+ Features

Here's the thing. Battle Pass and Dota Plus give access to way too many metrics, giving players a lot of information they can use to their advantage, like GPM/XPM tracking, pull timers and ward spots.
Battle Pass also features Rank Double Down, which doubles all rank gain and loss for a given match (very pointless if you're going to lose every match, given their nature).
Battle Pass features require a bit of tweaking to remain fair for all players (in addition to removing Dota Plus):

Battle Pass/D+ exclusive information screens, like access to certain metrics, are now available to all players
Rank Double Down removed
Players who don't own The International Battle Pass will still be eligible to receive missions and get shard rewards
Players no longer need to own The International Battle Pass / Dota Plus to get Chat Wheel Sounds, although some of the sounds (i.e. caster calls) will remain locked behind the Battle Pass

Emoticons are fine as long as they're tradeable.

Section 4 - Trove Carafe, Collector's Cache and other Promos

Both Trove Carafe and the Collector's Cache are fine as they are, and they further drive the sales, so no comment on those, aside from reworking Trove Carafe's Very Rare and Ultra Rare rewards (see Immortal Treasure row on §2a).

Conclusion

Battle Pass, with the amount of content it is getting every year, suffers from the problem of being too hard to grind and get too many rewards for from scratch (Level 1). It obviously needs to be improved, if not outright reworked; in addition to increasing cost/benefit so all players can enjoy the content regardless of their capacity for payment.

The 2020 LPL Spring Split starts in about 20 minutes with FPX vs. IG - I've written a quick tier list and preview of the teams.

The 2020 LPL Spring Split kicks off today with defending world champions FunPlus Phoenix taking on 2018 world champions Invictus Gaming. The LPL is the league I follow most closely, and even then, it's always the most difficult major league to make sense of. There's 17 teams as opposed to the usual 10, each team is loaded with talent from top to bottom, and despite the fact that the past two world championships have been won by Chinese teams, preseason expectations are usually shattered one way or another relatively quickly - but that does't mean it's not fun to speculate.
I'm classifying the teams into the following loosely-defined tiers. The teams are ranked numerically for ease of reading but I would put less stock into the rankings within each tiers (and frankly tiering itself is kind of an arbitrary exercise).

Favourites: These teams are the class of their regions and should have expectations of reaching and winning their domestic finals as well as qualifying for the League of Legends World Championship in October.
Contenders: They may not be odds-on title favourites, but these teams should be able to consistently compete with the tier above and have the requisite quality to challenge for the league title and make it to Worlds.
Noisemakers: These teams should comfortably find themselves in the playoffs mix come the end of the regular season - and it certainly won't hurt to have title aspirations, because these teams could easily find themselves in championship contention if things break right.
Dark Horses: Through no fault of their own, it'll be an uphill battle all split long, but these teams will likely end up on the right side of the playoffs when all is said and done. How far they make it in the playoffs will probably depend on form and a little bit of luck.
Pure Upside: A lot will have to break right for these teams to count themselves among the contenders - they may have the quality and talent to do so, but either due to inexperience or other factors, it's difficult to say with confidence that they'll be top-half finishers.
Temper Expectations: For the record, I'll never write off any team outright - there's way too much variance in esports to do this - but it's difficult to see these teams outperforming their peers. Unfortunately, someone has to finish bottom of the table, and if I absolutely had to choose, it would probably be a team in this tier.

This should go without saying but the tiers are a reflection of my personal subjective view. Frankly I'm mostly just happy that there's more and more growing interest from the Western community in watching this league and part of me getting my thoughts out here is a product of a desire to see the LPL grow in popularity among an English-speaking audience. Without further ado, here's how I'm looking at the LPL going into this year.
Note: I'm not great with reddit formatting, but I also wrote a nicer looking version of this post over at Medium.
Tier 6: Temper Expectations
17: eStar Gaming
Projected Lineup: CJJ // Wei // Cryin // Wink // ShiauC
Notable Reserves: Rat, ALU
PDD, the former Invictus Gaming pro, massively popular scene personality, and owner of LDL team Young Miracles, has finally found a way into the LPL via franchising after a number of unsuccessful attempts to promote Young Miracles to the top flight. Young Miracles are renowned for developing some of the LPL's pre-eminent talent (Ning, Tian, Knight, and Ming to name a few), and eStar's squad features no less than five former YM players.
There's some real talent here - CJJ is one of the LDL's best top laners, and fans will be relieved to finally witness the LPL debut of highly-touted mid lane prospect Cryin. eStar's most experienced senior players will man the bot lane, with Wink having filled in for RNG previously and support ShiauC showing out well in Spring 2019 and MSI before Flash Wolves' untimely summer collapse. The team is rife with promise, but it's unfair to expect them to start strong out the gates. The team is still young and inexperienced for the most part, particularly jungler Wei, who lost his starting position at Young Miracles to new RNG rookie XLB. PDD will hope that Cryin, CJJ and the rest of eStar will emerge from the LPL's trial by fire stronger and ready to take the summer split by storm, but the deck is definitely stacked against them.
16: Victory Five Esports
Projected Lineup: 997// xiaohan // Mole // y4 // Max
Notable Reserves: Windy (Top), Aliez (Top) clx (Mid)
In a vacuum, most of Victory Five's lineup consists of very capable players in their own right. Mid laner Mole and bot laner y4 are both competent carry threats. The issue here primarily lies with the depth of the LPL. Taking into account the sheer wealth of world-class talent in League of Legends' most competitive league top-to-bottom, it's hard to envision V5 separating themselves from the rest of the pack.
It would be help for V5 to settle on consistent starters in their solo lanes after rotating multiple players between mid and top last split. While Mole's mid lane role should be stable, eStar have elected to begin the split with 997 in the top lane, with Windy and Aliez ready to step up should 997 falter. Ultimately it seems fair to be realistic about V5's chances of short-term success being reasonably low.
15: Team WE
Projected Lineup: Morgan // beishang // Plex // Jiumeng // Missing
Notable Reserves: Poss (Top), y1hua (Jungle), chen9 (Mid)
When Xiye, Mystic, and 957 announced their departures this offseason, Team WE lost the last members of the squad that reached Worlds semifinals in 2017. Xiye and Mystic in particular have been the heartbeat of recent iterations of this team, and their steadfast presence will be very difficult to replace.
Despite this, WE have made the most of the situation by signing two of the league's more coveted young Korean prospects. After an encouraging split with LNG, mid laner Plex has a good sample of LPL experience under his belt and is ready for a full year in the top flight. Top laner Morgan hails from JD's development squad Joy Dream and performed well across 3 games last split, but will still need time to adjust to regular LPL action. Rookie bot laner Jiumeng will need to mesh quickly with incumbent support Missing. Much of the responsibility for getting the lanes through the early game will fall to Missing and jungler beishang, who both proved themselves key contributors last split, but a lot will need to go right for WE to return to relevance in the short term.
14: Suning Esports
Projected Lineup: bin // SofM // Angel // WeiWei // SwordArT
Notable Reserves: BiuBiu (Top)
Suning could easily have counted themselves in top 5 contention here had they successfully managed to sign Jackeylove in the offseason. With opening day approaching and Jackeylove nowhere to be found, Suning have elected to swap backup jungler WeiWei to the bot lane, a move which doesn't inspire a lot of optimism and makes Suning's ADC position likely the weakest in the league. Despite this, the team has a solid core, with support SwordArT still a world-class presence both in lane and roaming elsewhere. The signing of SofM, one of the league's most creative and aggressive junglers, should create playmaking opportunities across the map. That being said, Suning will need much-hyped top lane rookie bin and mid laner Angel to make massive strides in order to find consistent wins across the season.
It's worth noting that Jackeylove is still free to sign with any team mid-split. Suning remain a natural landing spot for him, and signing Jackeylove would provide a massive boost to this team's prospects. If that move materialises in a timely fashion, Suning can start thinking about plans for playoffs and potentially beyond that.
Tier 5: Pure Upside
13: Rogue Warriors
Projected Lineup: Holder // Haro // Ruby // ZWuji // Ley
Notable Reserves: Crazy (Top), Wuming (Mid)
Since barely missing out on Worlds in 2018 and subsequently losing key players in Doinb and Smlz, Rogue Warriors have hit a bit of a transitional period. While they weren't able to make the playoffs in either split of 2019, Rogue Warriors ended the season with some dependable building blocks in place. ZWuji is the latest ace of China's never-ending supply of bot lane prospects and can already count himself among the region's best. Jungler Haro had an up-and-down year but still has the potential to show signs of his breakout 2018, where he claimed the lion's share of playing time over Clearlove at Edward Gaming. Support Ley doesn't quite hit the same playmaking heights of the newly-departed Killua, but the presence of ZWuji means RW's bot lane duo should still be able to keep up with the LPL's best for the most part.
Rogue Warriors have brought in some fresh blood to address their previous solo lane weaknesses. Mechanical wunderkind Holder made his debut in the top lane last season and will look to improve further this year.New mid laner Ruby had an excellent 2019 with VSG in Challenger Korea, and top laner Crazy, previously of bbq Olivers and SKT, is a depth option to fill in should Holder struggle. This team certainly has the talent to make a playoff push sometime down the line, but it doesn't seem likely this spring unless the team gels together ahead of expectation.
12: LGD Gaming
Projected Lineup: cult // Peanut // Yuuki // Kramer // Killua
Notable Reserves: Lies (Top), fenfen (Mid), Chance (Support)
Although he's coming off a down year with Gen.G, Peanut's move to the LPL is still well worth celebrating for LGD, who haven't made the playoffs since 2016 and desperately need something to celebrate besides inexplicably beating Invictus Gaming 2–0 in the 2019 Spring regular season. Killua should also provide a much-needed partner for Kramer, the centrepiece and star of the team - LGD swapped back and forth between RD and now-retired club legend pyl without much success in 2019. Yuuki is a more than adequate domestic option in the mid lane, though his performance seems to go as the team goes. LGD still haven't really figured out the top lane position yet - although former EDG trainee cult looks to be the current starter based on Demacia Cup playtime - and Peanut and Killua are entering the split after disappointing years with their respective teams. But if they can find anything resembling their peak form, LGD could be a force to reckon with.
11: Vici Gaming
Projected Lineup: Cube // Aix // Forge // iBoy // Maestro
Notable Reserves: Zdz (Top), Chieftain (Jungle), Zeka (Mid)
Having spent most of their existence near the bottom of the league, Vici Gaming have embarked on one of the most ambitious rebuilding projects in recent memory by signing Kkoma, the most decorated coach the game has ever seen. Kkoma has his work cut out for him, but the team has had as encouraging a start as you could ask for, making it all the way to the Demacia Cup semi-final, all before Kkoma's official start date (for his part, Kkoma was taking a well-deserved rest for his wedding).
Vici's biggest move of the offseason under the new regime was convincing iBoy to leave Edward Gaming and become the new face of the team. While he should be their most reliable carry threat, Vici also have managed to amass four of the region's most interesting solo lane prospects. Cube's commendable performance in the back end of summer 2019 and in the Demacia Cup should tip the starting top lane role in his favour for now, but fellow top laner zdz is breathing down his neck. Meanwhile, Forge filled in admirably for Invictus Gaming while Rookie was on personal hiatus and was also instrumental in the Demacia Cup run. I'm excited to see what he can do on a more regular basis, but if he doesn't take to the position, Vici could turn to Zeka, the former KT Rolster trainee previously known as Dean, who ended the year in the 7th rank of the Korean soloqueue ladder.
The jungle position is one where I anticipate some growing pains. Aix struggled at times in the preseason and Chieftain hasn't been overly impressive since his LPL debut with BLG in 2018, but Vici are well positioned on the whole to capitalise on their Demacia Cup success and hit the ground running when Kkoma finally makes his LPL debut.
Tier 4: Dark Horses
10: LNG Gaming
Projected Lineup: Flandre // xx // Maple // Asura // Duan
Notable Reserves: chenlun17 (Top), lwandy (Support)
The long-standing duo of Flandre and SofM was finally broken up this offseason after a commendable summer split which saw the new-look LNG fall to eventual finalists RNG in playoffs. LNG enter 2020 with a new mid-jungle duo, Despite his pedigree as one of Taiwan's greatest ever representatives, Maple isn't quite the same player he was in the Flash Wolves days. New jungler xx is a great complementary piece, but lacks the proactive, dynamic spark that SofM brought to LNG. In my estimation this might actually be a weaker combination than SofM and Plex.
That being said, this lineup should still be taken seriously. Flandre is still in the elite class of LPL top laners, but with SofM gone, LNG will have to lean on his playmaking more than ever. While I don't see Maple and xx as having the same upside of last year's LNG, they should still be able to find wins against some of the weaker teams. The incumbent bot lane of Asura and Duan also performed competently last year - but if the mid jungle can't get going over the split, I have concerns around LNG's ability to deal with extra pressure in bot lane, especially as the early-season meta seems heavily bot-centric.
9: Oh My God
Projected Lineup: Curse // H4cker // icon // Smlz // cold
Notable Reserves: Guoguo (Mid), Kane (Bpt)
OMG will be elated to have secured the return of Smlz, one of the league's most dominant bot lane players in recent years and one of the most exciting players in LPL when he's on form. Smlz will reunite with his old OMG support cold (previously Five), a transition that will hopefully be easier than his disappointing stint with Suning alongside SwordArT.
There's still a lot of question marks in this squad. H4cker is a fantastic carry jungler who earned Third Team All-Pro honors in summer 2018, but also struggled with more team-focused picks last year on Suning, eventually being relegated to a time-share with WeiWei. icon has one of the more diverse champion pools among LPL mid laners, but has also been wildly inconsistent and a frequent liability in lane. Strangely, OMG's most stable player going into this season might be second-year top laner Curse, who showed flashes of his potential during what was overall a very difficult season and notably logged an impressive carry performance on Aatrox against TheShy.
Despite the uncertainty here, the talent in the lineup is clear and should they synergise well together, the potential rewards could be massive.
8: Dominus Gaming
Projected Lineup: Natural // Xiaopeng // xiye // Gala // Mark
Notable Reserves: bless (Jungle), Xiaowei (Mid)
Dominus pulled off a fantastic debut spring split in 2019 after gaining promotion to the LPL and sticking with the same five-man starting lineup that helped them clinch the LDL championship in 2018. Sneaking into playoffs and knocking off EDG meant they were off to one of the more promising starts a newly-promoted team had pulled off. Unfortunately, the wheels came off in the summer as some of DMO's weakness began to rear their heads. Their top side as a whole, in particular top laner Changhong and mid laner Twila, struggled in lane especially if opponents targeted them in draft. Dominus looked uncoordinated if they couldn't get some version of a Sion - Lee Sin/Reksai - Cassiopeia - Kai'sa - Galio comp, and they ended the summer split in 11th place.
On paper, Dominus have done very well to cover for their shortcomings this offseason. Top laner Natural (formerly Ale when he was on OMG) joined in the middle of the summer split and provided an immediate boost to their overall map stability. xiye is a massive addition and will be a legitimate carry threat who can relieve some of the pressure from the excellent bot lane duo of Gala and Mark, and should mean jungler Xiaopeng shouldn't be stretched too thin trying to put out fires across the map.
Dominus will hope that the signing of xiye gives them the flexibility to play through any lane. If they can continue building on the progress they demonstrated once they added Natural in the summer, they'll be well on their way to righting the course and returning to playoffs.
Tier 3: Noisemakers
7: JD Gaming
Projected Lineup: Zoom // Kanavi // YaGao // LokeN // LvMao
Notable Reserves: 705 (Top), Teeen (Support)
JDG's run to the Spring 2019 LPL final was a wonderful sight to behold, with Zoom and LvMao playing some of the best League of Legends the postseason has ever seen, but their impressive play masked some of the team's underlying weakness, namely the jungle and bot lane positions - JDG's deficiencies here came back to haunt them in the summer. The team failed to fully integrate Levi into the team and while Flawless was serviceable at times, his performance lacked consistency when he wasn't able to play Lee Sin. While imp was impressive in teamfights on Kai'sa, he was a liability in lane especially if Kai'sa was unavailable.
JDG have addressed these issues by bringing back former members Kanavi and LokeN. LvMao's familiarity with LokeN should restore some stability in the bot lane, while Kanavi impressed in his time with JDG and should hopefully have the stress of the Griffin scandal behind him. Zoom and YaGao are still among the stronger solo lane pairings in the league. YaGao's performance has been inconsistent since 2018, and Zoom is the cornerstone of this team and would arguably be the LPL's premier top laner if not for the fact that the LPL is also home to the greatest player to ever play that position (but we'll get to him later).
This is essentially the 2018 version of JDG that nearly made it to worlds sans Clid, who has since established himself as an international star - but Kanavi is a hugely talented jungler in his own right, and crucially, loves playing Lee Sin. JDG don't need Kanavi to be Clid, but if he's anywhere close, another finals run may be in sight.
6: Bilibili Gaming
Projected Lineup: Kingen // Meteor // FoFo //Jinjiao // XinMo
Notable Reserves: ADD (Top), M1anhua (Jungle), Wings (Bot), Moonlight (Support)
BiliBili had a lot go right for them in summer of 2019. Veteran mid laner Kuro showed glimpses of 2016 ROX Tigers Kuro in the summer split, leading BLG to a fourth-place summer finish - unfortunately, their poor spring performance meant missing out on the regional finals and therefore a place at Worlds.
Kuro has returned to LCK, but BLG's biggest revelation of 2019, Meteor, has exploded onto the scene as one of the best junglers in China, earning him the title of Rookie of the Year at the annual LPL post-season awards ceremony. Meteor had terrific synergy with Kuro, but also proved he was capable of taking games into his own hands when given the opportunity on picks like Sylas and Camille. FoFo is Kuro's replacement in the mid lane after years of laying waste to the LMS, and demonstrated at both Worlds and the Demacia Cup that he's already capable of competing at a high level against top major region mid laners and that he's already built an encouraging familiarity with Meteor.
Second-year support XinMo performed very well in 2019 as a complement to Jinjiao, and the two make for an exciting if currently unheralded bot lane duo. BLG's top side should be one of the league's best. Also waiting on retainer is Wings (formerly xiaoliulian), one of the LDL's rising stars in the bot lane. This team will need some time to establish synergy, but if they can get it going, they'll be lethal.
5: Edward Gaming
Projected Lineup: Jinoo // jiejie // Scout // Hope // Meiko
Notables Reserves: xiaoxiang (Top), Aodi (Top), xinyi (Jungle), GENTLE (Bot)
The beginning of the head coach Clearlove era was not lacking for excitement, with EDG having both engineered a reverse sweep of Team WE in the quarter-final of the Demacia Cup as well as having staved off a reverse sweep of their own in the semifinal at the hands of Vici Gaming. With this experience under their belt, EDG will be taking a healthy mix of old and new faces into the 2020 Spring Split.
Hope played very well in the Demacia Cup but will need to show compelling signs of development to fill in for the void left by iBoy. Jungler jiejie has improved leaps and bounds since his debut and should only continue to grow under Clearlove's tutelage. Most of the uncertainty lies in the top lane position, where Demacia Cup standout xiaoxiang has played himself into starting contention, challenging incumbent Jinoo.
EDG will always be competitive with the core of one of the league's premier shotcallers in Meiko and one of its elite mid laners in Scout. Hope will be in for a challenge, but EDG's infrastructure and supporting cast mean he is certainly well-equipped for it.
Tier 2: Contenders
4. Royal Never Give Up
Projected Lineup: Langx // XLB // Xiaohu // Uzi // Ming
Notable Reserves: S1xu (Jungle), Betty (Bot), Lele (Support)
Though it took them a few games to find their groove, RNG's Demacia Cup win should be an encouraging reminder that this team has always been capable of executing a variety of playstyles, despite the tropes that befall them in international competition. Rookie XLB (previously xiaolongbao) is the latest Young Miracles jungler to make his way to the LPL and is one of China's most exciting young talents. It will be difficult to replace one of the region's best junglers in Karsa, but XLB made about as encouraging a start as RNG could have asked for, showcasing strong synergy with Xiaohu and Langx and being unafraid to take the initiative on playmaking picks like Lee Sin and Gragas.
Xiaohu and Langx, for their part, have often been the subject of criticism domestically and internationally when RNG falter, but Xiaohu is still one of the best mid laners in the league and was a legitimate MVP candidate in both splits, whereas Langx proved he was capable of acting as the carry when given resources, although he remains a bit of a wild card in lane at times especially when playing weakside. The hiring of one of the game's most recognizable figures in Mata as head coach is also an interesting one - Mata is renowned for his game knowledge, and was famously also a hugely influential decision-maker in and out of game during his tenure as RNG's support in 2016 (arguably the best year of Xiaohu's career).
Per tradition, Uzi is likely to rest for portions of the spring split, so we'll see our fair share of the Demacia Cup-winning lineup featuring Betty, who is a much more established player at the top level compared to past Uzi fill-ins like Able and y4. Once Uzi does return, there is always a chance that Langx will be a casualty of the bot lane priority that is RNG's specialty, but it should be stressed that RNG have shown domestically that they can play any lane and any style - it's up to Mata and the rest of the team to make sure that adaptability is translatable to international competition, should they make it there.
3. Invictus Gaming
Projected Lineup: TheShy // Ning // Rookie // Puff // SouthWind
Notable Reserves: Leyan (Jungle), captain (Mid), huanfeng (Bot), Fate (Support), Baolan (Support)
The rollercoaster ride of iG finally came to an end with a heartbreaking 3–1 loss to FPX at Worlds and the announcement that the LPL's rising star in the bot lane, Jackeylove, would be exploring new opportunities in free agency. Instead of tinkering with multiple bot lane configurations in the wake of Jackeylove's departure, iG have made the shrewd move of plugging in an already-established duo of bot laner Puff and support SouthWind, the bright spot of last year's abysmal Vici Gaming team.
It's nigh-impossible to replace a player of Jackeylove's caliber, but Puff and SouthWind are both young and formidable talents with good chemistry, and I'm much more optimistic about their prospects in a team with a better top side - and what a top side it is. For all the tropes about his inconsistency and off-stage drama surrounding his status within the team, jungler Ning finally started to show signs of life in the regional gauntlet and at worlds. Meanwhile, Rookie returned from his mid-split hiatus with a newfound affinity for Qiyana and proved that he's still one of the world's best mid laners. Then there's TheShy. We're running out of superlatives to describe TheShy, who at age 20 has already ensured his place as an all-time legend of the game in my view. He's the greatest mechanical talent the top lane position has ever seen and after every setback - the latest being his costly series-ending positioning against FPX at Worlds - he seems to return better and stronger.
This is still the volatile iG that we know and love, and every game they play is must-watch League of Legends. When they're not playing their best, they're still wildly entertaining, and when they are playing their best, they're unstoppable.
Tier 1: Favourites
2. Top Esports Club
Projected Lineup: 369 // Karsa // Knight // Photic // yuyanjia
Notable Reserves: Moyu (Top), AKi (Jungle), QiuQiu (Support)
It does feel a bit strange to stay that a team eliminated by the lowly Vici Gaming in the Demacia Cup and are fielding two rookies in the bot lane should have title ambitions, but I feel pretty strongly that TES deserve this designation just on the merits of their new mid-jungle duo of Knight and Karsa. The signing of Karsa puts this pair right up there among the best in the world with the likes of Clid/Bdd, Jankos/Caps, and Cuzz/Faker (the unfortunate separation of Tarzan & Chovy means they're excluded here).
Knight (along with DragonX's Chovy in the LCK) is an absolutely transcendent talent and the future of the mid lane position. Despite a lack of team accolades and missing out on Worlds, the left-handed prodigy had a monstrous 2019, making a case for himself as not only the top-performing mid laner across both splits but the top-performing player in general - which, in a league with the likes of TheShy, Uzi, and Rookie, is a downright Herculean task.
TES are by no means just The Knight Show (although at times last year it certainly felt like it). Top lane sensation 369 is going into his second year after a wildly successful debut season, but famously struggled against TheShy on multiple occasions and still needed draft & jungle resources against Zoom. He has the talent to reach that echelon of top laners and will need to show progress to get there. The really intriguing move here is TES' decision to promote their LDL bot lane duo of Photic and yuyanjia. Photic is a mechanical wonder, the latest in the long line of LPL marksman talent, and their prospects are very intriguing - certainly inspiring more confidence than their erratic 2019 of LokeN and Ben.
For all their inexperience, it's hard to shake the feeling that this team could be something really, really special. If Knight wants to make his presence felt on the world stage, this is the year to take that next step forward.
1: FunPlus Phoenix
Projected Lineup: Khan // Tian // Doinb // Lwx // Crisp
Notable Reserves: GimGoon (Top), Yoghurt (Mid)
The newly-crowned world champions didn't show any signs of complacency this offseason. FunPlus Phoenix made only one addition to the senior team this offseasons- but when that addition is a world-class top laner like Khan, asdf. Incumbent GimGoon is one of the best weakside top laners in the LPL, but Khan should provide FPX with even more versatility and firepower in the top lane, giving the omnipresent roaming trio of Doinb, Tian, and Crisp even more license to impose their will on the map.
All in all, there's not much to say about this team that hasn't been said. Tian and Crisp proved themselves to be world-class playmakers, exercising a level of agency at the jungle of support positions that is extremely difficult to execute consistently at a high level. This is all enabled by the in-game cerebral force of Doinb, who acts as a radio tower in the mid lane, relaying commands across the map and lending his aid to the sidelanes as necessary. For all his faults on display at worlds, Lwx is still one of the LPL's most competent bot laners and his teamfighting prowess is a perfect fit for FPX's split-second decision-making apparatus. His massive improvement from the spring to the summer split was a large factor in FPX being able to finally clinch their first LPL title.
FPX proved beyond a doubt they were worthy of being named champions of China and of the world last year and there's no reason to think they'll show signs of slowing down going into the 2020 season.

[OC] Is It Hot In Here, Or Is It Just Me? a 30-team examination of which coaches are on the “hot seat”

The NBA season hasn't started yet, but that doesn't mean that coaches should feel entirely comfortable in their offices quite yet. Circumstances change quickly, and coaching positions can change quickly along with them.
Through this (super long) post, I wanted to assess each coach's job security for this 2019-20 season. There's no simple or accurate metric for measuring this, so I'm going to give an estimated and subjective appraisal of their chances of getting fired, either in mid-season or at the end of the season.

I LOVE YOU, PLEASE DON'T LEAVE ME (listed alphabetically by team)

Golden State: Steve Kerr
After 5 years on the job, Steve Kerr has a winning percentage of .785 in the regular season, and 3 NBA titles in the postseason. In fact, the team's 57-25 record last year was the worst of his tenure so far. So yes, his job is safe. Kerr could coach the next 10 years there if he wanted. For Kerr, it's not a matter of job security; it's a matter of health. He's been able to endure his constant back pain in pursuit of titles, but will he have the same resolve if the team sags into "good but not great" status? TBD. chance of firing: 0%. chance of retirement: 10%.
L.A. Clippers: Doc Rivers
A few years ago, Doc Rivers was almost the victim of his own success. His gaudy resume had allowed him to take charge of the L.A. Clippers front office, and he simply didn't do a great job in that role. However, he wisely took more of a backseat there, and embraced the job (head coach) that he's quite good at. The 48-34 record last year re-established his coaching cred, and the new superstars should energize him for a few more seasons at least. chance of firing / retirement: 2%
San Antonio: Gregg Popovich
Along with Steve Kerr, Gregg Popovich is firmly in the "you can stay as long as you want" camp. And he nearly has. He's been at the helm for 23 years. Amazing, the last two seasons (47-35, 48-34) have amounted to Pop's worst percentages over the course of a full season. He's one of the greatest ever, and unlike some old veteran coaches, hasn't lost his fastball whatsoever. He's constantly adapted, evolved, and thrived. But as with Kerr, the question is whether Popovich is nearing the end of the road, for personal reasons. He's 70 now, and in control of Team USA. He may hand the baton off and focus on that job going forward. I suspect he'll give it a go in both roles until the Olympics at least, but it's no longer a guarantee. chances of firing: 0%. chances of retiring: 20%.

I STILL LOVE YOU, BUT WE MAY NEED COUPLES COUNSELING (listed alphabetically)

Boston: Brad Stevens
A season or two ago, Brad Stevens was the golden boy coach in the NBA. After a slightly underwhelming 49-33 season, we're starting to see some grumbles about his offense (which isn't as free-flowing and ball-moving as his age may suggest.) The Celtics will replace Kyrie Irving with Kemba Walker, but expectations aren't much lower. If the team can't grab a top 4 seed, those grumbles may grow. And if the Boston-Stevens love affair ends, would he start to eye a move back to the NCAA? Probably not, but we can't promise the marriage lasts forever. chances of firing: 2%, chances of leaving: 5%.
Miami: Erik Spoelstra
Although the Miami Heat have been mediocre lately (124-122 over the last three years), I'm still be inclined to group in Erik Spoelstra in with the "untouchables." After all, this is a 2-time champion coach with 500+ career wins prior to the age of 50 (48 years old right now.) Even if the Miami Heat underachieve and miss the playoffs again, I don't think Pat Riley would want to rock the boat on this culture. Still, Jimmy Butler is a handful, and potential addition Chris Paul isn't a bed of roses either. If Spoelstra can't get "buy in" from his new stars, then there may be more trouble in paradise than we expect. Again, it's a very small chance a divorce happens, but we can't give it a 0 either. chance of firing: 4%.

JUST DON'T EMBARRASS ME IN PUBLIC (listed alphabetically)

Cleveland: John Beilein
It's hard to under-estimate the leverage rookie coach John Beilein has with the organization right now. They lured him from Michigan with a 5 year contract, where he'll be "working for" a front office that features assistant GM Mike Gansey (Beilein's former player.) Simply put: they're going to hand him this team and allow him to build a program in his image. Despite that, it doesn't mean the transition will work like a charm (just ask Billy Donovan.) Beilein is 66 years old, and has never coached in the pros before. He may simply decide that he hates the NBA and walk away prematurely. Still, it's hard to imagine that happening this early barring any unforeseen health issues. chances of firing: 1%. chances of leaving: 5%.
Memphis: Taylor Jenkins
Although they have wildly different resumes and backgrounds, Taylor Jenkins will be in a similar boat to John Beilein. He's inheriting a team that's in a rebuilding situation, and should afford him a lot of patience going forward. The Wharton-grad Jenkins projects as a smart, modern coach who should have long-term success. Still, we can't absolutely guarantee Memphis doesn't fire him after 1 season, because they have done that before. chances of firing: 3%
Milwaukee: Mike Budenholzer
Based on pure coaching talent and resume, Coach Bud has nothing to worry about - particularly after a 60-22 record last season. The only reason that I'm even putting him in this category at all is the potential for off-the-court issues. He had been arrested before on a suspicion of DUI back in 2014, although he was later found not guilty. If something worse happens in that ilk, then he may be in trouble. But barring that, he's obviously safe. chances of firing: 2%.
Minnesota: Ryan Saunders
While interim coach Ryan Saunders (Flip's son) had been a popular pick in the locker room, he still represents a sizable risk by this new front office. After all, he's only 33 years old and hasn't been a head coach at any level prior to that short stint last season. He may be a home run; he may be a strike out. Of course, he'd have to be a wild strike out (with a bat thrown into the stands) for it to amount to a firing in year one. chances of firing: 5%
Orlando: Steve Clifford
Veteran Steve Clifford did a tremendous job in his first year in Orlando, helping the team improve from 25-57 to 42-40 and a playoff trip. There's a chance the Magic may stagnate in R1 unless one of their young players (Jon Isaac, Mo Bamba, Markelle Fultz) takes a "leap," but they should have patience with Clifford for at least another year or two. Barring health issues, his job is safe. chances of firing: 2%.
Phoenix: Monty Williams
One of the reasons we can't claim rookie coaches are entirely safe is because teams like Phoenix have fired them in the past -- including Igor Kokoskov last season. However, it'd be very difficult for any owner (even Robert Sarver) to justify doing it two times in a row. In fact, Monty Williams secured a 5-year deal to help prevent that nonsense. chances of firing: 2%.
Sacramento: Luke Walton
Despite mixed results in L.A., Luke Walton was a hot commodity with the Sacramento Kings franchise, who gave him a nice 4-year contract. Of course, that happened before the sexual misconduct allegations that surfaced since. While that appears to have quieted down, any new rumor or accusation may turn up the heat on Walton. Barring that, the team should stand by their man. chances of firing: 5%.
Toronto: Nick Nurse
Nick Nurse is about as close to "untouchable" as you can get for a coach with 1 year of experience. But hey, that was a heck of a year. Nurse won the title, and outfoxed several great coaches along the way. The Raptors could probably sink down as low as 30 wins (unlikely) and still keep Nurse for the long haul. chances of firing: 1%.
Utah: Quin Snyder
While Quin Snyder hasn't had a huge amount of playoff success yet himself, he's also quickly established himself as one of the better NBA coaches. Over the last three years, the Jazz have played lockdown defense and averaged 49.7 wins. This offseason has raised expectations, but Snyder should be safe for another season or two even if they slightly underachieve. The bigger issue would be if Snyder gets in trouble off the court; he had a wilder history in college prior to straightening out in the pros. chances of firing: 4%.

YOU'RE SAFE (FOR NOW) (again, alphabetically)

Atlanta: Lloyd Pierce
In theory, Lloyd Pierce should be in great shape here in Atlanta. The young team had a solid 29-53 season in his first year, and their young core projects well for the future. That said, expectations will rise over time. Pierce was partly hired for his defensive reputation, but the team only ranked 27th last season. With Trae Young (who graded dead last in ESPN RPM on defense), that may be hard to change. Hopefully rookies De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish will solve that issue, but if not, Pierce may start feeling some heat in 2020. When he was hired, the team only gave him a 3 year contract, which indicates that he didn't have much leverage coming in. chances of firing: 7.5%
Charlotte: James Borrego
Like Lloyd Pierce, James Borrego will be entering Year 2 in a rebuilding situation that should lend itself to patience. On the other hand, logic tends to go out the window when it comes to the Charlotte Hornets. Borrego will have to deal with a weak roster, and a shaky front office that just gave $19M a season to Terry Rozier. I expect Borrego will survive for a while, but we can't rule out a house cleaning. chances of firing: 10%.
Brooklyn: Kenny Atkinson
Kenny Atkinson has done a great job bringing the Nets out of a deep black hole rebuild, but now the expectations will vault up with the arrival of Kyrie Irving (and soon Kevin Durant.) Presumably, those stars wouldn't have signed up in the first place if they didn't like Atkinson. That said, their opinions can change at the drop of a hat. A disappointment in 2019-20? Okay fine. Another in 2020-21? Then Atkinson will start feeling that seat warm. chances of firing: 4%
Dallas: Rick Carlisle
As one of the most respected coaches (and a title winner to boot), Rick Carlisle should have job security for life. Still, the NBA will always be a stars league, and Carlisle's star isn't Dirk Nowitzki anymore. It's going to be Luka Doncic (and Kristaps Porzingis' team), and Carlisle will need to appease them to some degree. Missing the playoffs this year may be fine, but whiffing again in 2020-21 would be problematic; it would be the 5th season in a row without a playoff berth. chances of firing/retiring: 5%
Denver: Mike Malone
After a premature exit in Sacramento, Mike Malone has rebuilt his stock by lifting Denver to contender status. He's improved every year, from 30-52 to 33-49 to 40-42 to 46-36 to the breakout 54-28 record last season. Of course, that also comes with rising expectations. Like the others in this section, Malone could survive one regression year, but two disappointing years in a row would be a problem. chances of firing: 5%.
Detroit: Dwane Casey
Of all our coaches, Dwane Casey knows that one should never get too comfortable. After all, he was fired after a 59-win season (and a Coach of the Year trophy) in Toronto. After that, he still had enough leverage to earn a 5-year deal in Detroit, which should buy him quite a bit of time. Still, a 41-41 start was "meh." To make matters worse, Nick Nurse and the Raptors won the title without him (albeit with Kawhi Leonard.) Given Casey's big contract, he should be safe in Year 2 and Year 3, but there's hardly a guarantee he'll survive all 5 years of the deal. chances of firing: 5%.

10 HOTTEST SEATS (in order)

(10) Portland: Terry Stotts
Remember, this isn't a ranking of the best and worst coaches but merely their situations. In fact, everyone would agree that Terry Stotts is a very good basketball coach. In fact, if you asked the other NBA coaches to rank their peers, I suspect Stotts may even crack the top 5. That skill has manifested on the court as well. His Blazers have made the playoffs for 6 seasons in a row, and had a mini-breakout with a Conference Finals trip this year.
Still, making the playoffs doesn't lock in job security in the NBA; winning a title does. And until that happens, the franchise will always wonder in the back of their minds on whether or not they should pull a "Masai Ujiri" and squeeze Stotts out for a younger assistant on his staff like Nate Tibbetts, a rising star in the ranks.
After tasting the WCF last year, can Stotts afford to take a step back? Probably. Losing in R2 seems about right for this team as presently constructed. But what if they lose in R1? Then it becomes more of a debate. I'd still recommend keeping Stotts and tweaking the roster instead (ya'll got any more of them stretch PFs?) but I'm not in charge of the team and I'm not ruling any shake-ups out. chances of firing: 15%
(9) Indiana: Nate McMillan
As with Terry Stotts, it may feel strange to see Nate McMillan on this list. At first glance, neither should be on the hot seat at all. In McMillan's three years on the job, he's guided the team to winning records and playoff trips in each season. The Pacers just finished 48-34 despite Victor Oladipo's injury, and may be better than that this season with new additions like Malcolm Brogdon.
Still, we have to go deeper than the first glance here. Indiana thrives on the basis of their defense (ranked 3rd last season), which is heavily influenced by assistant Dan Burke and DPOY candidate Myles Turner. Offensively, the team tends to look a little scattered and uncreative, which has Pacers fans quietly murmuring about McMillan. They added some new scorers in Brogdon and T.J. Warren, but both are players coming off career years from 3. If they regress at all -- and this team regresses at all -- then McMillan may be in more trouble than we realize.
Am I expected that? Not really. If I had to bet, I would bank on the Pacers winning 45-50 games and McMillan lasting at least another season. But if we're looking for potential hot seat situations, we can't ignore the potential downside here. If they underachieve, McMillan may be the fall guy. chances of firing: 20%
(8) N.Y. Knicks: David Fizdale
We can't judge David Fizdale too harshly based on his 17-65 record in year one. After all, tanking and landing a top 3 pick was all part of the plan. But what's the plan going forward? After striking out with the superstars in free agency, the Knicks signed a bunch of B+ and C+ players to big money. With it, they've attempted to re-set expectations. Instead of landing superstars in 2019, they're going to land them in 2021! Hopefully?
In the meantime, David Fizdale should be able to survive until then. His team is still young, and features first and second year players like R.J. Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, Kevin Knox, and Dennis Smith. Practically speaking, the veterans like Julius Randle and Bobby Portis are meant to supplement that rebuilding movement. Fizdale should be allowed to develop this group, and be afforded some growing pains in 2019-20 and again in 2020-21.
However, there are a few factors working against him. The front office may fancy themselves a playoff contender out East, which may go sour by the end of the year. Moreover, that front office isn't exactly on solid ground themselves after getting pounded by the press this summer. Dolan may want a complete fresh start after this year. More than that, there's a non-zero chance James Dolan leaves town himself, and some super-billionaire like Jeff Bezos uses his change jar to buy the team and mold it into his image. At the end of the day, there's more uncertainty with this situation than a second-year coach would like to see. chances of firing: 20%
(7) Chicago: Jim Boylen
As a well-respected defensive coordinator, Jim Boylen's name has always been bandied about for head coaching jobs in the past. He finally got his opportunity last season after taking over for apple pie Fred Hoiberg in mid-season.
At first, it did not go well. Jim Boylen had about as rocky of a start as you can imagine, earning negative reports in the press about his drill sergeant attitude clashing with the locker room. Still, he turned that perception around and had a decent finish to the year and earned some "buy in" from the players. Better yet, his Chicago Bulls may be a darkhorse contender for the # 8 seed. They have offensive stars in Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen already, so an improved defense may vault them closer to .500. Even if that doesn't happen (yet), Boylen should feel safe knowing he has the backing of the front office.
Of course, that also ties Boylen's fate to that front office. Ownership has tended to leave Gar Forman and John Paxson alone, but it's not a lifetime appointment. If this team doesn't improve enough (and wins say, 25 or 30 games), then there may be a total housecleaning here. I'm a little more optimistic on the Bulls' chances of winning 35-40 games than others, but we can't rule a potential disaster out. chances of firing: 25%
(6) Philadelphia: Brett Brown
After a long dark winter, Brett Brown and the Philadelphia 76ers have emerged from the "Process" intact. In fact, Brown has won more games in each of the last two seasons (52 and 50) then he did over his first three seasons combined (47). But with that comes raised expectations, which may be higher than ever. With Kawhi Leonard out of the Conference and the sheen off the Boston Celtics, the Sixers are the co-favorites with Milwaukee to make the Finals. Losing in the Conference Finals would be acceptable, but a R1 or R2 loss may be stinging.
Would that disappointment be enough to cost Brown his job? It's debatable. His contract extension runs through 2021-22, but that's never stopped a coach from being fired before. Fans may grow frustrated if Ben Simmons still can't shoot, or if Joel Embiid can't stay healthy, or if Philly's defense doesn't look as dominant as it should be on paper (despite Simmons, Embiid, and Jimmy Butler, they only ranked # 15 last season.) It's very possible that Brown becomes the scapegoat here.
Of course, we're talking "worst case scenarios" here. Chances are: the Sixers should be quite good and have a very good chance to make the ECF or the Finals. So while we can't rule out a firing, we wouldn't bet on it either. chances of firing: 30%
(5) New Orleans: Alvin Gentry
After coming over from Golden State, the exceptions for Alvin Gentry in New Orleans were sky-high. Suffice it to say, it's been an underwhelming return so far. Despite the (occasional) presence of Anthony Davis, his Pelicans have won less than 35 games in three of his four seasons on the job.
Oddly, Davis' trade demands may have helped Gentry survive another year. With the blockbuster deal, expectations get re-set and the window extends again. On paper, Gentry and assistant Chris Finch's run-and-gun style should suit this new roster well. Gentry is also someone who's earned high praise from his players and from the media in the past. If new execs David Griffin and Trajan Langdon didn't believe in him, they had the opportunity to make that change this past summer.
But alas, that doesn't mean they won't have that same opportunity again next summer. Gentry's contract will be running out, and the team may decide to go with someone younger than him (he's now age 64.) To earn a longer leash, Gentry doesn't need to make the playoffs, but he has to show reasons for optimism. The Pelicans need to find a clear role for Zion Williamson, and earn some improvement from the cast-off Lakers. There's a lot of talent on the roster, but if the team stalls or looks like a muddled mess, Griffin may likely clean up the picture and chose his own head coach the next time around. chances of firing: 35%
(4) Houston: Mike D'Antoni
Veteran Mike D'Antoni may start spitting out Rodney Dangerfield routines, because the poor guy doesn't get much respect. Despite a great run here in Houston (records of 55-27, 65-17, 53-29), he's still struggling to earn a contract extension from the franchise.
And while owner Tilman Fertitta gets the blame for that, we can't rule out Daryl Morey's influence either. Morey has stated in the past that he thinks coaches' messages tend to run stale after a few years, and that philosophy has born out in their decision making. Jeff Van Gundy lasted 4 years. After him, Rick Adelman lasted 4 years. After him, Kevin McHale lasted 4 years (+10 games). This season, Mike D'Antoni will be entering the dreaded 4th year himself. The Houston Rockets' job essentially has strict presidential term limits, and he's verging on lame duck status.
To up the degree of difficulty even further, the team added Russell Westbrook to the equation. That's not to say it's the wrong decision by any means or that it won't work out (personally I'd still peg them for a top 3 seed), but we have to admit there's a sizable chance that it won't work out. The chemistry for Harden + Westbrook is going to be harder to calculate now that they've both had considerable success (and MVP seasons). And if something doesn't click, it will certainly be easier to blame D'Antoni than the two stars, whose massive contracts run for another few seasons. chances of firing/retiring: 40%
(3) L.A. Lakers: Frank Vogel
It's rare to see a first-year coach listed this high, but this is rare circumstances indeed. Frank Vogel will be joining the Lakers on a 3-year contract, which is quite light for a veteran like him. That fact showcases his limited leverage and his reduced reputation. The Lakers didn't high the coach who guided the Indiana Pacers to the ECF; they hired the coach who led Orlando to 29-53 and 25-57 records. In some ways, Vogel is lucky to have landed any job at all.
But there's no mistaking the fact that this particular job will come with some challenges. Primary among them: the threat of assistant Jason Kidd breathing down his neck. According to some, Kidd was the first choice of the front office, and the conspiracy theory that they simply didn't want to hire him outright (due to domestic violence charges in the past) checks out logically for me. Vogel can't be too pleased to turn on the Summer League and watch his new star LeBron James sitting next to Kidd in Vegas either.
Will LeBron James, Rich Paul, and Jason Kidd conspire to stab Vogel like Caesar? The odds are high. But the question is a matter of "when?" James didn't love David Blatt, but allowed him 1.5 on the job before he got the boot. The Lakers may end up giving Vogel a full season and change to make his impact on the defensive end before considering a full-time change in midseason in 2020-21.
And hey, we can't rule out the "what if it works?" theory either. This team has LeBron James and Anthony Davis, for fuck's sake. They have a legitimate chance to be a great team, and even an NBA champion. If that happens, Vogel won't be going anywhere (at least, not for another year or two.) chances of firing: 45%
(2) Washington: Scottie Brooks
The Scottie Brooks era in Washington has been a disappointment, and it won't get much prettier from here. After the John Wall injury, the Wizards will be entering 2019-20 with one legitimate star in Bradley Beal and a wonky supporting cast. They're a motley crew of decent prospects who may be 2 years away (Troy Brown, Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant) and veterans who may be 2 years removed from quality play (Isaiah Thomas, Ish Smith, C.J. Miles.) Realistically speaking, Bradley Beal will have to put in a Herculean effort for this group to win 35 games.
If there's any reason to think the axe will not come for Scottie Brooks' head, it's that this Washington Wizards owner Ted Leonsis isn't the "off with his head!" type. He's been patience with the Washington Capitals hockey team, as well as this Wizards unit. Former GM Ernie Grunfeld lasted for years past his expiration date. And in turn, Brooks may be allowed to play out another year of his (pricy) contract. Brooks also has a reputation as a good player development coach, which bodes well for his prospects during a possible rebuild to come.
All that said, Brooks shouldn't be investing in D.C. real estate. The clock is ticking. I would fully expect new acting GM Tommy Sheppard to cut Brooks loose and choose his own coach at some point, but we can't be 100% confident it will happen after this season or after the next. chances of firing: 50%
(1) Oklahoma City: Billy Donovan
Given his new status as a /NBA punching bag, it's hard to under-sell just how much leverage Billy Donovan had when he first came to Oklahoma City. We're talking about a well-paid college coach who had won two separate NCAA titles at Florida, and had resisted the NBA calls for years. He arrived in OKC with a 5-year deal in tow, as well as a reputation as one of the best coaches in basketball.
As we now enter Year 5 of that contract, Donovan's reputation has been tarnished considerably. He's been blasted for perceived underachievement, particularly in the postseason. With Kevin Durant, the team blew a 3-1 lead to Golden State, and hasn't won a playoff series since (losing in R1 three times in a row.) In fact, they've gone 4-15 in playoff games since then. Donovan's managed to avoid getting the boot because of his reputation and big contract, but those excuses won't hold off the executioner much longer.
Personally, I'm a little bit of a "Donovan Defender." I don't think he's done as bad of a job as advertised. After all, his worst regular season record has been 47-35. He's kept the team afloat without Kevin Durant. And sure, he probably should have reined in Russell Westbrook, but it's not easy to harness an MVP. The fact that Donovan won 48 games with a guard who jacked up 20 shots a game (at 50.1% true shooting) is oddly impressive in a way. And heck, let's even defend blowing the 3-1 lead. It's not like OKC woke up one morning with a 3-1 lead under their Christmas tree; Donovan used some wily tricks and unconventional lineups to help earn those 3 wins in the first place.
But again, these rankings aren't about my perception of the coaches, but rather my perception of their situations and stocks. In theory, this OKC roster isn't half bad and could flirt with .500 if they wanted to pursue the playoffs. And in theory, if they blow it up, then a college coach like Donovan may be well suited for that rebuild. But in reality, I just don't see an extension here. The marriage has soured, resentment has built up, and a divorce may be best for both parties involved. chances of firing: 55%

champions league odds outright 2020 video

SBK Champions League 2020/21 outright winner odds: Lazio: 1.67%; Bayern Munich: 25.97%; Winner: Juventus. Of all the sides left in the knockout rounds, all the group-winners would have wanted to Outright winner odds comparison for other top football competitions. Since you are interested in seeing the best odds for the potential winner of the Scottish Premiership, you might also be interested in finding the best odds for other major football competitions listed below. Champions League winner odds. Europa League winner odds Get a bet on with Paddy! Check out the odds on our UEFA Champions League outright Winner 2020/21 page, and show your football knowledge. Who will win the UEFA Champions League? It looks like Bayern Munich is the favourite at the moment, at odds of 11/4. A £10 bet on it to win the UEFA Champions League at these odds would win you £37.5. The tournament then changed completely. It was renamed the UEFA Champions League in the 1992-93 season and expanded with top-ranked countries given up to four places to enter. And with that more money flew in the Champions league as the richest clubs, generally with much shorter Champions League odds on the win market, have been dominating. This Champions League outright winner odds comparison allows OddsJet to display the best odds for every team to win the Champions League outright so bettors may maximize their potential returns. For individual UCL matches, OddsJet also provides a Champions League odds comparison . — NBC Sports Bet (@NBCSportsBet) August 31, 2020. Click here for more odds on the Premier League and beyond from PointsBet. Premier League odds – Champions, outright winner, 2020-21. Man City Champions League betting on the European football club championship. Get outright and match odds, plus tips, free bets, offers and money-back specials *You have to be 18+ to gamble. All odds within this article are accurate at the time of writing (14:00, 10/12/2020). BeGambleAware. READ MORE: Premier League outright odds Champions League betting Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus T&Cs apply. Min deposit £10 • A qualifying bet is a ‘real money’ stake of at least £10 • Min odds 1/2 (1.5) • Free Bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expires after 7 days • Free Bet stakes not included in returns • Deposit balance is available for withdrawal at any time • Casino Bonus must be claimed within 7 Track the odds movement for every major football club in the 2020/21 UEFA Champions League The Round of 16 draw is complete and Bayern Munich are still +275 favorites View teams individually or compared to others trending in the same direction

Champions League odds: PSG & Chelsea receive short straws

champions league odds outright 2020

champions league odds outright 2020 - win

A Look At Each Position- Highlighting the drastic amounts of mismanagement in every position on the field since 2013.