NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.

PYPL/SQ/ARKF fintech DD

Paypal was an early COVID investing pick due to its nature of contactless payments and its rise in young populations with Venmo. Paypal has a storied history, founded by some of the most influential Silicon Valley VC’s and entrepreneurs they started as two smaller companies founded in the middle of the tech bubble (1998 and 1999) as Confinity and X.com by Peter Thiel and Elon Musk. They were able to weather the storm of the 2000 tech fallout by being bought out by eBay for $1.5B beforehand. Under eBay, Paypal grew their services into what most of us know them for: digitized payments. Starting from effortless check transfers for unauthorized vendors to working their way to B(!)tcoin, Paypal has made it more convenient for payments to be processed, and in our consumerist economy that’s an absolute goldmine. Square is a relatively new player in the digital transaction space but they’ve had quite a run up this year under the leadership of Jack Dorsey, founder of Twitter. Their first product was a card reader that fit into the headphone jack of smartphones, so naturally Square expanded into the enterprise services market and continued developing solutions for small businesses like payroll management. I’ll further discuss the respective structures of both companies in this due diligence
The Expansion of Digital Transactions
Paper currency has been the standard means of exchange for ages, but the digital method of exchange, particularly mobile exchanges has now become far more convenient. In 2017, digital payments were expected to reach a market value of $726B in 2020, and here we are post covid with the value of digital payments at over 910B.

https://preview.redd.it/mr9elex5z0561.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=18e6eb1b9039d738af6c2ea5277018d2749cbbfd
Statista forecasts that most of the sales growth for digitized payments past 2020 will come from mobile POS, and that most of the user growth for digitized payments will also be in peer-to-peer transactions. Paypal has both bases covered with Venmo when it comes to mobile transactions and it has E-Commerce covered with its major retailer partnerships and with eBay. Square has Cash app, which is a peer-to-peer payments app plus they also have in-person small business products for digital payments like their “cash register” called the Square Stand which is useful for freelancing professionals and small businesses.
So a pro of Square is that it has a far more established presence in the growing sector of digital payments which is mobile POS payments, not E-Commerce. However, E-Commerce is the much larger sector by users alone:

https://preview.redd.it/x99o8v39z0561.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=c12fa73d91b1948acec47fe715cdefe8b4bfb3bb

As you can see, mobile POS payments are expected to triple in the same time that E-commerce will grow by around 20%.

This makes a lot of sense to me as E-Commerce still makes up a small amount of all transactions and its trajectory is very much fixed and established now. POS payments are definitely growing though, as on my last trip to India, one of the fastest growing countries, I observed that every small business had a PayTM barcode for transactions, and this is where both Paypal and especially Square will eventually expand to. CNBC also forecasts most digital payment growth will happen in emerging markets (which is why I’ll suggest an ETF at the end which incorporates emerging market companies) “Emerging markets are expected to grow at a rate three times that of developed economies in terms of digital transaction volumes. Digital payments in developing markets grew 21.6 percent between 2014 and 2015, compared to a 6.8 percent rise in mature markets. Non-cash payments in Asian emerging markets are projected to grow by almost a third (30.9 percent), led by powerhouses China and India”. According to CNBC analysts though, cash will still remain supreme for the following reasons: speed of exchange, universal acceptance, anonymity, absence of record and free of charge. Anonymity and absence of record are things that are being fixed by the incorporation of cr(!)ptocurrency into transactions, but it’s likely the biggest reason people don’t switch to cashless is because not all merchants use it and the fees add up especially for many transactions a day for the merchants. Eventually when the digital transaction economy grows fully, there will be enough competitors to offer sellers competitive rates to a point where they’ll choose mobile payments for the convenience it provides in terms of not having to use physical cash but as of now only small businesses are willing to make the opportunity cost of losing fees so they don’t have to store cash.
Paypal
Paypal is “a global, two-sided network at scale that connects merchants and consumers with 305 million active accounts (consisting of 281 million consumer active accounts and 24 million merchant active accounts) across more than 200 markets. PayPal helps merchants and consumers connect, transact, and complete payments, whether they are online, on a mobile device, in an app, or in person”. They have a variety of new products in development as they have made several acquisitions since their establishment. Paypal offers merchants a technology-agnostic platform that requires no hardware and little time to set up with its Braintree product which is primarily for online sellers and iZettle which is used for POS payments primarily in international markets and they have a user base of 19 million. This acquisition was made with the full intention of competing with Square and since Paypal has had an extremely talented eye for acquisitions in the past in Xoom and Venmo, this relatively new acquisition has a lot of potential, but it could also just be a last minute scramble to catch up to Square’s huge market share in POS payment offerings. Paypal has a great P2P ecosystem in Venmo and Xoom and a credit partnership with Synchrony bank as well which helps diversify revenue streams. Paypal also owns a company called GoPay, which basically provides the same services Paypal does but in China, which expands them into a market that’s more likely to grow in the future.

https://preview.redd.it/w3vmknzbz0561.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=23c083f35611ffa86a997cf3a9f75a7c29de7a9f
As you can see, Paypal has some pretty consistent revenue, profit, and EBITDA growth, but a bit more concerning may be the fact that margins have been relatively stable and they haven’t been increasing at all. I believe the reason for this is because PayPal’s full potential isn’t close to being realized, and even founder Peter Thiel said in his book “Zero to One” that Paypal wouldn’t start realizing a majority of their cash flows until 2020.

https://preview.redd.it/78wifzfdz0561.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=9bce649ad199031a1c5ddbfbdb663324b7ae3454

While Paypal was able to increase earnings per share by a strong 21% from 2018 to 2019, they decreased cash flows from operating activities by 17% from 2018. This requires that we go into the capital expenditures in their CF statement, which will provide a clearer idea of why and how Paypal lost cash flow despite rising net income. Another thing standing out may be the fact that the operating margin is pretty constant, which can be a concerning sign for investors seeking a growth stock. Plus, considering how much the price for PYPL has run up in the past few months you’d expect better profitability to come with it hand-in-hand. But the future being factored into Paypal isn’t based on its face value, or else the price would be very stagnant right now and it wouldn’t have grown nearly as much as it has.
Here’s what I mean:

https://preview.redd.it/47r8msvez0561.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=2cefbcab0e52e1a1ca9e42b946f569f4a1595785
The amount of profit Paypal can squeeze out of its main product is pretty much at a maximum as transaction expenses are growing at the same rate as revenues are and operating expenses are still going up at a somewhat proportional rate to that of net income, meaning that no more value is going to come out of the existing product. While the existing product is still going to grow in popularity, its profitability is only going to decrease or stagnate as Paypal expands into developing markets that aren’t willing to cough up as much in fees. As Thiel himself puts it, that’s “horizontal innovation” AKA just globalism. That alone isn’t enough to justify the investment levels in Paypal, but investments and acquisitions into the future of transactions will expand it, and on top of this it is only recently Paypal has experienced such tremendous growth in cash flows YoY.
Now you’ll see below PYPL’s historic cash flows, and if you go to the bottom you’ll see their free cash flow decreased from 2018 to 2019 as I previously mentioned. The root cause of this is investment purchases, which increased by $5B in 2019 and contributed to the Free Cash Flow decreasing by 800M. Again, if we look at Paypal’s track record when it comes to acquisitions they’ve been very successful, so there’s not much reason to expect much different this time around. If Paypal’s investing, investors are excited. They’ve piled up cash up until last year, and they’re finally using it now based off their cash per share:

https://preview.redd.it/rq6x4g8kz0561.png?width=387&format=png&auto=webp&s=976d294dbc9ceb68d288570648b9a894fde8c1ac

https://preview.redd.it/jh21m90lz0561.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=b77b71f08785127aea6cad5afa30e6ff37f78f11

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Add to this the tremendous increase in digital payment volume in the past year and we can expect a real change in the entire sector’s trajectory. Hedge funds have been piling up on this supposed legacy company for a valid reason: their time for expansion is now, and COVID-19 has only spurred in realizing this perfect storm, as net income and revenue has seen a jump in the past two quarters:

https://preview.redd.it/v4cgyl1nz0561.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=272965de645fa1a9aac0ff763863cc28e7942035
So you must be wondering why Paypal’s cash from operations was down in 2019 from 2018, but in their most recent 10k Paypal explained cash from operations and free cash flow was only down due to “positive impact of $1.4 billion of changes in loans and interest receivable, held for sale, net following the sale of our U.S. consumer credit receivables portfolio” which was added into the operating income as it was a noncash expense and that’s why 2019 looks down about $1B in cash even though operating income for 2019 was up $0.4B:

https://preview.redd.it/7i979ldoz0561.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=798113837df594aa112574facc98df32685c8c79
Paypal’s newly acquired capital is already being used and it’ll be put to good use based on the meteoric rise in transactions in the past two years. Contactless payments will eventually become a norm and their established e-commerce platform will set them up pretty well on this end.
Now to address the flip side of the coin: POS or Point of Sale transactions, which is a market Square has wrapped around its finger as it’s had the head start since the iPhone 4. Here’s how Square got started, instead of giving 10$ to people for using their product, founder and CEO Jack Dorsey (who also is the founder and CEO of Twitter) gave them the product for free and built an infrastructure around it. It was simply a credit card scanner that could be inserted into the headphone jack of a smartphone. This simple product is still being sent out for free to small businesses and the software and business model that surrounded this tiny card reader has expanded like a wildfire since then. Square would collect 2.75% on each payment similar to Paypal.
Square also made a “cash management” app, Cash App to dive into a non-retail market.
About Cash App: “Cash App provides an ecosystem of financial products and services to help individuals manage their money. While Cash App started with the single ability to send and receive money, it now provides an ecosystem of financial services that allows individuals to store, send, receive, spend, and invest their money.”
It appears as if Square is trying to become an all-round player in the consumer and producer financial ecosystem as Cash App has become more like a bank or brokerage account rather than just a P2P service like Paypal or Zelle. Now, Cash App makes 25% of SQ’s revenues.
In Square’s 2019 annual report, they reported the following:
In the year ended December 31, 2019, we processed $106.2 billion of Gross Payment Volume (GPV), which was generated by nearly 2.3 billion card payments from 407 million payment cards. At the end of 2019, our Square point of sale ecosystem had over 180 million buyer profiles and approximately 230 million items were listed on Square by sellers.
As of December 2019, Cash App had approximately 24 million monthly active customers who had at least one cash inflow or outflow during a given month.

The above image shows Square’s payment volume distribution across different industries, and as you can see in 2019 payment volume was very diverse which bodes well for SQ’s stability.

This shows the increasing size of sellers who use Square, and this shows that Square’s mission of making small businesses big and having them stick to their product regardless of their stage in growth is working.
Although their main business is in processing payments, Square is making itself a fin-tech institutional force with 30 different API’s for retail and e-commerce sellers along with invoicing, appointment, payroll, loyalty/gift card, and account management services. Square also has financing for small businesses in Square Capital, which I find to be the most interesting part of their model. They give small loans to businesses based on the data that they already have as Square manages the business’ finances, remember? And this puts them at an advantage to make good debt because of the transparency into the business’ finances. This will allow Square to make extremely profitable and high turnover loans that have virtually NO risk of default. The types of loans they give are generally small, and they could be as little as $500. They describe these loans as the type you’d ask for from your parents or relatives. Square has such in-depth data from these businesses that when they make loans they don’t even consider credit scores: “Generally, for loans to Square sellers, loan repayment occurs automatically through a fixed percentage of every card transaction a seller takes. Loans are sized to be less than 20% of a seller’s expected annual GPV (their payment volume) and, by simply running their business, sellers repay their loan in eight to nine months on average”
Since 2014, Square has made over $6B in loans with a failure rate of only 4%, which makes sense because Square has access to all of its client’s financials so therefore they possess the ability to make fully transparent loans.
When you jump into Square’s financials, there’s a lot of promise to say the least:

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Not only has revenue grown by 42% from 2018 to 2019, net income finally became positive in 2019 and free cash flow increased from 232m to 400m in the same span.
Here’s the revenue breakdown for Square, and as you can observe while transaction revenue saw much stronger compared to Paypal, the real deal was Square’s expansion of its enterprise solutions as those revenues increased by 74% last year, these are revenues recognized as the following: “Revenue from Cash App, Square Capital, and Instant Transfers for sellers currently comprise the majority of our subscription and services-based revenue. Cash App subscription and services-based revenue is primarily comprised of transaction fees from Cash App Instant Deposit and Cash Card. Our other subscription and services-based products include website hosting and domain name registration services, Gift Cards, Square Appointments, Customer Engagement, Employee Management, Payroll, Square Card, and other product offerings.”
B(!)tcoin revenues from Cash App investing whose revenues increased by 210% (in this case B(!)tcoin is an asset that Square owns and sells to those using Cash App to invest in cr(!)ptocurrency.)

https://preview.redd.it/6krvne7101561.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=87bb78977eaa222762e5f24f5061651850ad74e5
Also in that same span, Square’s cash has nearly doubled. This liquidity will be necessary as Square Capital continues to grow and will require financing.

https://preview.redd.it/0b3gxlr201561.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=068b3f2d994b04f67fd2ad5c6de629851dd658ae
Observing some long term trends now for $SQ:

Lower SG&A expenses per $ of revenue

Low receivables/sales despite expansion of Square capital because revenue has grown so fast

Increasing return on equity (higher net profit margins and leverage)

Consistently increasing free cash flow points to stability (especially since 2019 turned positive)
While Square is far riskier than Paypal, they seem to be capturing a much larger market and have a bigger vision for the future at this point. Paypal becomes more like Microsoft and Square is kind of like Apple if we went back 10 years. One of them has widespread use and an established platform but still has consistent growth (about 15%) and the other is finding itself in a competitive market but is also slowly establishing absolute dominance. Square is absolutely overvalued, but for a growth stock that’s nothing out of the ordinary, and so is Paypal considering they don’t have nearly as much a prospect for growth unless leadership shows a huge change in direction some time soon. The “Paypal Mafia” however has surprised us before and I think there’s a solid chance of growth still plausible for them. Regardless, both of these companies should be a holding in your portfolio amidst a growing FinTech sector and a huge transition away from traditional payments.
Tickers: $ARKF $PYPL $SQ
ARKF 1/15/21 55c

[Procurement] Procurements and R&D 2021, Part Four: Air Force Future Programs

Aircraft

F-35 Advanced
Israel Aerospace Industries are working with Lockheed Martin and Pratt & Whitney for an upgraded variant of the F-35. The basic fuselage will be based on the F-35B, though with the Liftfan moved, propelled only by the single non moving F135-PW-600 GO1 with no axial shaft as the Lift Fan has been removed. A fixed non-folding variant of the F-35C's wing would also be incorporated, allowing for larger fuel capacity and fuel efficiency for greater range, though at slight detriment to maneuverability and max speed. The Liftfan would instead be replaced with an Electronic Warfare package, as well as a 100kW laser, with opening doors on the top and bottom of the fuselage where the lift doors used to be, which folds inside (to limit drag) for 2 laser low drag spherical turrets to pop out. Only 1 would be used at a time depending on the bogey position and plane's orientation. Lockheed Concept and CGI projection for the new fighter
Boeing E-737 Modified
The IAF has also ordered the Boeing E-737 to a modified design to accomodate the EL/W-2095 GaN AESA array which is an upgraded, slightly miniaturized Gallium Nitride version of the EL/W-2090 currently utilized by India.

Electronics

EL/M-2062
The IAI ELTA EL/M-2062 is a Gallium Nitride modular AESA multirole A2A and A2G radar. Capable of being modified thanks to its modular design, the ELTA EL/M-2062 is planned to be used to upgrade the radar of the F-16, F-15 or F-35. Providing up to 1200 TRM modules for the F-16, 1350 TRM modules for the F-35, and 2000 TRM modules for the F-15, the EL/M-2062 would have up to 50% greater detection range vs low observable aircraft in the F-35, as well as a 100% increase in range in the F-16 compared to current legacy variant (and around 50% better than the APG-80).
LITENING IV
An upgraded version of the current LITENING pods, LITENING IV incorporates real time colour imagery of targets up to 100km away, combined with an advanced increase in computing power allowing for much more effective targetting, allowing even dumb bombs to be released at marked targets at high Mach with a CAP of less than 5m. This also allows for much more complex bombing profile, such as "lobbing" the payload, greatly increasing the range of dropped bombs (especially glide bombs). LITENING IV also have a datalink between different pods on multiple platforms allowing for some level of data sharing on 4th generation fighters on targets in ground attack missions.
Other
The Green Pine Block D is a standard upgrade of the current Green Pine system based on the TERRA GaN modules, allowing for an extension of the maximum detection range up to 1500-1800km.
EL/L-8294 is a upgraded and podded version of the EL/L-8283 IRST, which will be deployed across the IAF's 4th generation fast jet fleet.

Munitions

Python-6
The next installment in the Python series of missiles, the Python-6 is in essence a Stunner missile (David's Sling) without the booster section being adapted for air launched BVR combat. With an air launched estimated range of more than 120 km, the Python-6 sports the most advanced tracking package any Air to Air missile have, with a dual mode active radar and infrared sensor package operating simultaneously, an asymmetric design allowing for more efficient flight characteristics, and super maneuverability through thrust vectoring. The Python 6 will also be a lot smaller than the AMRAAM, allowing for up to 3 to be fitted on the centerpoint hardpoint inside the F-35's bay instead of 2 with Sidekick, along with another 1 on the bay doors (or 2 though this would require a different release mechanism to be designed) allowing the F-35I to carry up to 8 (or 10) Python 6 in its weapons bay, which would be crucial as with a stealthy profile, the F-35 can afford to be a lot closer to other fighters than traditional doctrine, which means that range is a lot less important than numbers, a theory that missile designers are keen to exploit, seen with Lockheed Martin's Cuda missile concept.
Dark Sparrow
Dark Sparrow is a guided variant of the Silver Sparrow air launched target missile, with a warhead. This modification is cheap and easy to complete, and would produce a weapon with a 450kg warhead and a range of 1,600km.
Gideon
Gideon is the name for a future air breathing hypersonic maneuverable cruise missile, though no additional details have been revealed at this stage.
ELOPE
ELOPE (Extremely Long Ranged, Low Observable, High Projectile Energy) is a new ramjet propelled artillery shell designed for the IDF as a joint project between Boeing, Nammo (Norwegian company), and IAI. Based on an existing 155mm design by Nammo, ELOPE will be readily available for frontline artillery by 2024, with ranges of over 100km.
LORA Upgrades
2 simple upgrades for LORA is expected to be rolled out in 2022 and 2023 respectively. ALORA (Air, LOng Range Attack) is a basic LORA with additional guidance and adaptation for air-launched purposes, with a possible 2 being carried on an F-15 for attack ranges of up to 800km. EXLORA (EXtremely LOng Range Attack) is a ground based derivative of LORA, but with a reduced 400kg warhead and a range of 650km, the maximum range that would comply with MTCR.
Bunker Busters
The MPR2K and MPR10K are bunker buster bombs that weigh respectively 2,000kg and 10,000kg. Designed by Israel Military Industries, they are rocket boosted in order to achieve far greater penetration than bunker busters of similar weight class (Similar to a current plan for the US's Next Generation Penetrator). The MPR10K itself is to be a solution to the GBU-57's heavy weight by utilising a lighter design but with similar penetration thanks to its rocket booster.
Speaking of the GBU-57 itself, the Israeli units will undergo a streamlining process of modification in order to allow them to fit under the F-15's undercarriage.
MSOV Family
The Modular Stand Off Vehicle Family is a family of guided glide bombs designed by Israel Military Industries. Designed to complement the 110lbs FASTLIGHT and 250lbs MLGB. The current MSOV will be renamed the MSOV-M, with a 500lbs MSOV-L and 2500lbs MSOV-H. These complete the Israeli stand off glide bomb family, allowing for efficient ground striking of even moving targets at ranges of around 100km without the use of expensive cruise missiles.

UAV/UCAV

Spiderman
Spiderman is an urban quadcopter combat drone, capable of delivering and sticking explosive onto walls, or delivering 2 frag grenades, or carrying a remotely operated rifle, designed for reconnaissance and urban combat support, or even covert assassination missions.
Hadish
Hadish is the name given to the future Loyal Wingman for the IAF. Israel Aerospace Industries alongside Boeing has been contracted to deliver Hadish, based on the Boeing Airpower Teaming System.
Ashkelon
Ashkelon is a stealthy UCAV designed as an A2A missile truck, strike drone or tanker. Based on the X-47, Northrop Grumman in cooperation with Elbit Systems have been contracted to deliver Ashkelon to squadron service by 2026.
Damascus
Damascus is a planned long ranged strike UCAV. Currently much of the project is still classified, though it's revealed that IAI and Northrop Grumman are contracted to deliver it.
Sea Drone
Intuitively and unsubtly named, Sea Drone is the name for a program to convert drones such as the Heron, Hermes 450, Hermes 900 or Eitan to essentially seaplanes (or rather, Sea drones), capable of landing on water.
Commercial Drone developments
Other commercial sector drone developments include the Eitan-S or Hermes 1501, which are strike variants of both the IAI Eitan and Elbit Hermes 1500. Skylark 4 is a continuation of the battlefield reconnaissance Skylark drone family, now with more advanced thermal imagery and night vision camera and a targetting datalink to feed targetting data to allied artillery or airpower. Bird Eye 700 is an upgrade on the hand launched battlefield reconnaissance Bird Eye series.

Air Defense

Iron Beam
With budgetary approval from the Knesset, Iron Beam is now set to enter service in 2024. A High Energy Laser capable of destroying aerial threats at range of up to 7km, Iron Beam will be the low cost, point defense option for defense of Israel. Costing only $2,000 dollars per shot, Iron Beam will be price competitive with Hezbollah or Hamas missiles, finally ending the missile threat to the Israeli way of life for good. It can also serve to destroy mortar fire or artillery fire, capable of breaking apart shells after 4 seconds.
Arrow 4
A future addition to the Arrow family, the Arrow 4 is still in preliminary stages of development and thus not much information is available about its mission nor capability.
Iron Dome Mk2
After years of testing, and a 100% demonstrated intercept rate, the Iron Dome Mk2 will finally enter service in 2022. Expected to perform at up to 90-95% effectiveness in actual combat, the Iron Dome Mk2 also provides an dome of protection up to 125km in radius, and can now engage targets from all 360 degrees. The increased kill rate also lead to a change in the Iron Dome's command software. Instead of firing 2 missiles at targets the Iron Dome Mk2 will only fire a single missile, with an additional missile following it a second or so after. If the first missile fails, the second missile will engage, but if it doesn't then the 2nd missile, not as committed in its trajectory, will change course to intercept a different target.
Killer
An upgrade to the David's Sling, the Killer missile is planned to enter service with David's Sling batteries as a replacement for the Stunners in 2026. Designed as the first ramjet SAM since the British Sea Dart, Killer will lift David's Sling's range up to 300km, as well as terminal interception of ballistic missiles travelling at up to Mach 10. Killer will also sport a GaN AESA radar thanks to miniaturization technology, alongside a dual infrared seeker similar to the Stunner missile currently in use. Killer will be a hit to kill missile, allowing it to free up more space for guidance and propellant.
Iron Umbrella
Iron Umbrella is the name for a future mobile battlefield SAM system. Similar in concept to the Russian Pantsir, Iron Umbrella will utilise either a truck chassis or the Merkava's chassis to have a completely independent battlefield mobile SAM system. It will incorporate both a 30mm machine gun, effective up to 3km, as well as 2 sextuple launchers for the Stunner missile (without a booster), effective up to 70km. Iron Umbrella will utilize essentially developments made by the Air to Air Stunner missile (Python 6), using the Stunner in a SAM role alongside the EL/M-2062.
Iron Spear
Iron Spear is the name of the project to develop self defense systems for fighter aircrafts. Contracted by the IAF to RAFAEL and Lockheed Martin, this include a 100kW laser to equip the F-35 Advanced as well as a self defense missile based on the Lockheed Cuda missile (which can replace AMRAAM on a 2 for 1 basis). This can allow F-35 Advanced to carry a 100kW defensive laser, or up to 8 Cuda derived self defense anti-missile missile. Lockheed promises that the self defense missiles will also be able to be used against other aerial targets.

Research	Program Cost Paid By Israel This Year	Program Cost Remaining For Israel	Total Program Cost	IOC	Notes
AIRCRAFT
F-35 Advanced	214	1,285.71	5,500	2027
Boeing E-737 Modification	20	0.00	20	2022

RADARS/ELECTRONICS
EL/M-2062	60	30.00	90	2022
EL/W-2095	40	20.00	60	2022
LITENING IV	18	32.00	50	2023
EL/M-2080 Green Pine Block D	19	46.00	65	2024
EL/L-8294	33	88.00	121	2023

MUNITIONS
Python-6	40	40.00	80	2022
Dark Sparrow	30	30.00	60	2023
Gideon	20	110.00	390	2028	Partly funded by FMF
ELOPE	30	80.00	110	2024	Covered by FMF for Overseas Spending
ALORA	0	0.00	12	2022	Commercial
EXLORA	15	60.00	80	2023	Commercial
MPR2K	15	0.00	15	2023
MPR10K	20	40.00	80	2024
GBU-57B Streamlining	2	0.00	2	2022
MSOV-L	0	0.00	22	2022	Commercial
MSOV-H	0	0.00	28	2023	Commercial

UAV/UCAV
Spiderman	8	0.00	8	2022
Hadish	30	60.00	90	2023-2024
Ashkelon	80	160.00	245	2026
Damascus	77.5	967.50	1,045	2028
Sea Drone	5	15	20	2024
Eitan-S	0	0	6	2022	Commercial
Skylark 4	0	0	1	2022	Commercial
Bird-Eye 700	0	0	1	2022	Commercial
Hermes 1501	0	0	3	2022	Commercial

AIR DEFENSE
Iron Beam	35	230	420	2024	Covered by FMF for MD
Arrow 4	10	1,400	1,430	2028	Covered by FMF for MD
Iron Dome Mk2	5	0	120	2022	Covered by FMF for MD
Killer	30	380	410	2026	Covered by FMF for MD
Iron Umbrella	10	70	80	2024	Covered by FMF for MD
Iron Spear	5	65	70	2025	Covered by FMF for MD

Pandemic Update - November 27

Note: I post these on my facebook page and a few groups.
Let me know if it is desired or not to post these updates here regularly. Thank you, Jaimie.
UPDATE: November 27
11 new deaths, 911 new cases in BC. Literally 9-1-1.
“It is in the spirit of the season to stop the spread and to save lives.” -- Health Minister Adrian Dix.
Translink updates its rules.
162 drug overdose deaths in October.
Increased domestic violence, less shelter space.
LOCAL:
· Currently active outbreaks in New Westminster: Kiwanis Care Centre, Queen’s Park Care Centre, Royal Columbian Hospital, Al-Hidayah School in New Westminster.
· The outbreak at RCH is confined to one medicine unit. Evidence of transmission after a patient tested positive.
· Fraser Health says that Al-Hidayah School is “functionally closed for a two week period due to the staffing challenges presented by the clusters.”
· Please consider giving some business to the Hideout Café, targeted and forced to do take-out only by anti-mask protesters.
· https://www.newwestrecord.ca/news/new-westminster-caf%C3%A9-targeted-by-anti-mask-protesters-1.24244888?fbclid=IwAR3YutZmw3QD9Vl11Buk4NaLsrxCnNIA0FVOjeROvtQJjji1H64hfDXrYJY
· Translink had updated its mask rules.
· No face shields, must be masks.
· Masks must now be put on while boarding or waiting at a stop. No more putting the mask on after getting in the bus.
· Mask are now also required at any indoor or shelter stop, and also in stations, platforms, and at bus stops, bus loops, and bus exchanges.
· Translink is suspending issuing its own exemption cards.
· Transit police will inquire of customers not wearing a mask. Police can issue fines of $230.
· Exemptions: people under 12 years of age, persons unable to wear a mask due to a health condition, people who physically cannot put on a mask.
· Here is the full public safety Ministerial Order regarding face masks in BC: https://www.bclaws.ca/civix/document/id/mo/mo/m0425_2020
· Burnaby Hospital is no longer taking most new patients at the 286 bed hospital.
· 5 deaths, 55 cases in current outbreak.
· The outbreak began November 9. The fire at the hospital November 15 is a contributing factor to the outbreak, forcing rapid evacuation or movement of patients in the facility.
Sources: Fraser Health, New Westminster Record, Province of BC Ministerial Order No. M425, CBC
BC:
· There is a workshop December 2nd about the BC Small and Medium-Sized Business Recover Grant. You can register here: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/registetZMldeCorj4iEtXYIv_6TtX3XLyQZbVHE1ZH
· BC numbers for today, from today’s press conference with Dr. Bonnie Henry and Health Minister Adrian Dix:
· 11 new deaths. 395 total.
· 911 new cases. 30,884 total.
· 301 in hospital, 69 in intensive care.
· 10,430 in self-isolation and being monitored.
· 21,304 have recovered.
· 3 new outbreaks. 1 is over. 59 active outbreaks, 54 care homes, 5 in health facilities.
· 718 residents, 344 staff among the active cases.
· Numbers for testing will come out next Friday, showing two categories:
· MSP tests, people with symptoms.
· Non-MSP tests, mostly asymptomatic, often for travel or work, and tested multiple times.
· Updated info on fitness and sports next Friday.
· Seeing much higher transmission than before, which is why there are new restrictions. Based on places and activities being safe. These places are not doing anything wrong, temple, gurdwara, church, but have seen transmission despite people’s best efforts and safety plans. Thanks faith leaders who are supporting public health, and in doing so also supporting their own congregants. Adrian Dix: we understand the meaning of a loss of faith services for many people, loss of community for people, appreciates the leadership of most faith leaders in supporting efforts to stop the transmission of Covd-19.
· “We are in a storm surge.” Dr. Henry.
· We can all do our part to bring those numbers back down.
· It is a cruel irony that when we want to see people, that can be the most dangerous thing.
· Time of year. This weekend many will be thinking of holiday shopping. Asked that when shopping, keep your covid safety plan. Shop locally, support local businesses, wear masks, wash hands, be limited in number, or shop remotely.
· Remember that we don’t always know another person’s story.
· Concerned about hostility directed at restaurant and store staff. “Please remember that this is a provincial order.” If you are opposed to wearing a mask, then please don’t put other people at risk, and shop online, keep space around you. Remember there are people in our hospitals right now.
· “It’s hard to see the light right now, but there is light.” Dr. Bonnie Henry.
· Adrian Dix: It’s been 10 months. He understands that people want a break. But right now we can’t. He understands what the month of December means to people. Asks people to think about how we can celebrate differently. Right now, we save lives by only socializing with the people in our household, or the one or two people we see if we live alone.
· Also, Dix, it is in the spirit of the season to stop the spread and to save lives.
· Dr. Henry was asked about political interference in Alberta and Ontario. She said that “there is none of that in BC.”
· More than 5 people a day are dying from toxic drugs, says the BC Coroners Service.
· 162 people dies in October from drug overdoses, what the Coroners Service refers to as “drug toxicity.” More than double the number in October of last year, which was 75 deaths.
· Concentrations of fentanyl are the main cause.
· Chief Coroner Lisa Lapointe: “We are continuing to see record-breaking numbers of people dying in B.C. due to an unsafe drug supply in our province, and it’s taking a toll on families and communities in this dual health emergency.
· 70% of deaths age 30 to 59, 80% of deaths are males.
· Eight consecutive months with over 100 deaths.
· 1,386 total deaths from January 2010 to October 2020.
· 109 deaths of youth 18 and younger in that time.
· 160 deaths in New Westminster in that time. 30 of those this past October.
· “No deaths have been reported at supervised consumption or drug overdose prevention sites.”
· Full press release, with links to other information and groups helping: https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2020PSSG0061-001957
· Illicit Drug Overdose Events attended by BC Ambulance, chart (379 last week): https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2020PSSG0061-001957
· Report, Illicit Drug Toxicity Deaths in BC, January 1, 2010 to October 31, 2020: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/birth-adoption-death-marriage-and-divorce/deaths/coroners-service/statistical/illicit-drug.pdf
· A hotel employee in BC had a heart attack shortly after being spat on by a customer refusing to wear a mask.
· The employee, the hotel accountant, went to see what was going on. She is a woman in her 50s.
· The man was politely offered a face mask while in the Empire Coffee shop of the Adventure Hotel. He began to loudly scream profanities. Staff attempted to reason with the man and calm him unsuccessfully, and then told the man to “Just get out!”
· When she arrived, the man was attempting to get in again. The woman said, “Listen! You’re not going to talk to our people this way, and this is the law.” The man then spat on her.
· Police were called and removed the suspect, who is under investigation. The police investigation includes the relationship between the spitting incident and the woman’s heart attack, say Nelson police. Police say such causal links have been made in some past cases.
· The woman remained distraught after the experience and began to feel ill. She collapsed about an hour and a half after the encounter. She was airlifted to hospital in Kelowna and is stable condition but remains in hospital.
· It was also in Nelson that Kootenay Co-Op hired a security guard after confrontational behavior towards staff over the mask requirement. The manager says that 10 to 20 percent of customers are refusing to wear a mask.
· There are reports of other aggressive confrontations in other parts of BC. Two men at a diner in Victoria wandered between tables and threatened staff, and were each fined $230. A man was arrested in Dawson Creek after attacking an employee at a Walmart after being asked to wear a mask. The employee had minor injuries. Here is a story and video about that incident: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/dawson-creek-walmart-employee-assaulted-face-mask-dispute-1.5817369
Sources: BC Coroners Service, BC Centre for Disease Control, Dr. Bonnie Henry and Health Minister Adrian Dix live press conference
CANADA:
· Canadians will not be among the first to get the vaccines.
· Prime Minister Trudeau cited the fact that Canada does not have any of its own vaccine production facilities.
· The first doses will arrive in Canada in early 2021. Distribution will prioritize health care workers in category 1. There is currently discussion as to whether residents of care homes will be added to category 1, or will be a category 2.
· The government is hoping 3 million people in Canada will be vaccinated in the first three months of 2021.
· https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tasker-vaccine-briefing-logistical-challenges-1.5817577
· UPDATED: Trudeau announced today a goal of having half of all Canadians vaccinated by 2021. (Although Trudeau said nearly all Canadians at his press conference).
· Major-General Dany Fortin will lead the logistics and operations for the vaccine, as a new branch of the Public Health Agency of Canada. The military will take up challenges like cold storage for the vaccine, and will get vaccines to Canada’s remote and Indigenous communities. Provincial health systems will get the vaccinations to people.
· 71% of violence against women shelters in Canada have had to reduce capacity due to Covid, while domestic violence is on the rise. Many reduced capacity by 50% or more.
· As the pandemic has progressed over time, so has domestic violence.
· Here is a report by Women’s Shelters Canada: https://endvaw.ca/shelter-voices-2020/
· If you or someone you know is experiencing domestic violence or abuse, including involuntary confinement, call 911 if there is immediate danger. Here is site to also find resources and help anywhere in Canada: https://sheltersafe.ca/
· Problems in Alberta.
· 20 recordings have come out showing political direction and interference in health authority decisions, and micromanagement by the Premier and cabinet members. They also overruled expert advice, and pushed for an early reopening of the province.
· Chief Medical Officer Deena Hinshaw told other health officials, “I don’t have a lot of fight left in me.” When dealing with government, she asked colleagues, “How do we limit the worst possible implications of this without wearing ourselves down?” Publicly, she say that she has felt respected by government and that the final decisions rest with cabinet.
· The opposition says that Premier Kenny has been hiding behind Dr. Hinshaw. He has the lowest pandemic handling rating of any premier in Canada. The Premier has said he won’t bow to “idealogical pressure,” seemingly not considering that the advice has come from his own scientists and doctors. Kenney cited economic impact and rights in his decision.
· “What is there suggests to me that the pandemic response is in tatters,” say Dr. Obobu, a law professor at the University of Alberta specializing in public health law.
· The province has not been able to sustain its contact tracing system.
· 29,000 Covid complaints were made in the province by mid-September, but behind the scenes, a decision was made not to enforce. There were 62 enforcement orders total.
· Dr. Hinshaw has called the recordings a betrayal of trust.
· Full story: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-covid-19-response-tension-recordings-1.5814877
· A small hospital in Manitoba has closed so staff can go help in a care home.
· The hospital in Grandview, Manitoba, closed, sending patients to other hospitals. The staff are expected to be reassigned to the Grandview Personal Care Home in the town, for at least three weeks. The home is struggling with an outbreak.
· Story: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/grandview-hospital-closure-vehicle-procession-manitoba-1.5817381
·
Sources: CBC, Women’s Shelters Canada
INTERNATIONAL:
· Life expectancy is falling in Sweden during Covid.
· Life expectancy steadily increased from 1900 to 2019.
· Sweden has had a high Covid mortality rate.
· The country’s lead epidemiologist had refused for most of the pandemic to implement mandates on people’s socializing.
· Life expectancy for men fallen to 80.8 from 81.3 in 2019.
· Life expectancy for women fallen to 84.4 from 84.7 in 2019.
· Regional deaths per 100,000: 63 in Sweden, 14 in Denmark, 7 in Finland, 6 in Norway. 6300 deaths total in Sweden.
· The OECD ranks Sweden as one of the hardest hit countries in Europe, and the slowest at containing transmission.
· The Royal Academy of Sciences, the people who give out the Nobel prizes, said that Sweden should rethink its decision not to recommend masks, “irrespective of what the public health authority is saying.”
· The Public Health Agency continues to say that face masks give people a false sense of security and could undermine social distancing, as if the two things cannot go together, and despite months of new science on how masks can reduce transmission from one person to another, especially indoors.
· Full story: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/swedish-life-expectancy-to-drop-for-first-time-in-century-due-to-covid-19/ar-BB1blluD?ocid=uxbndlbing
· North Dakota now has the highest COVID-19 mortality rate of any jurisdiction in the world.
· More than 1 in every 1,000 persons in the state have died of Covid.
· 769 deaths out of a population of 762,000, as of Tuesday. The majority in the past two months.
· 10.2% of North Dakotans have had the virus.
· North Dakota has been one of the states that refused to implement many health measures. Governor Burgum refers to his approach as a “light touch.” The Governor only just asked people to wear masks as of Friday, saying, “Our situation has changed.”
· Dr. Deborah Birx of the White House Task Force says that North Dakota has the worst Covid-19 protocols and mask usage in the entire country.
· There are only 17 ICU beds still open in the entire state as yesterday
· State contact tracing stopped on October 22, as the system was overwhelmed. The system is now only notifying people that they are infected. Story: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/18/north-dakota-contact-tracing-stopped/?fbclid=IwAR3myTbU4J_xSWJnS4uB_itVi-BILOUwC6eZwjf41f8HVKw3G_8NGwB03bE
· Health care workers who test positive but show no symptoms have been ordered back to work, due to staff shortages. Story: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/17/north-dakota-covid-positive-health-workers-coronavirus
· The US has passed 13 million cases, passing 12 million only six days ago.
Sources: Bloomberg News, Forbes, Bismarck Tribune, The Guardian, CNN
STATS (as of the end of yesterday:
CANADA:
· 89 new deaths. 11,799 total.
· New deaths – 32 in Quebec, 21 in Ontario, 13 in BC, 10 in Alberta, 10 in Manitoba, 3 in Saskatchewan.
· 5,635 new cases. 353,100 total.
· 14,276,851 total tests in Canada, 90,335 in the past day.
· There are test waiting lists in: Ontario at 54,241, up 1,389 in the past day; Nunavut at 765, down by 48 in the past day; 331 in Yukon; 29 in Northwest Territories. No information on how long those waits are. It seems clear that the North needs additional testing capacity.
· 3,697 new recovered. 280,929 total.
· 1,849 new active. 60,372 total.
· 449 in intensive care.
USA:
· 1,311 new deaths. 269,923 total.
· 49,424 new cases. 13,298,348 total.
· 10,805 new recovered. 7,857,695 total.
· 38,256 new active cases. 5,170,730 total.
· 24,408 in intensive care.
WORLD:
· 1,445,053 deaths.
· 61,699,043 cases.
· 42,625,551 recovered.
· 2.34% mortality rate.
WORLD – Currently Active Cases top ten total:
· United States – 5,170,610
· France – 1,984,290
· Spain – 1,601,524
· United Kingdom – 1,531,750
· Italy – 787,893
· Belgium – 514,401
· Brazil – 509,241
· India – 456,807
· Poland – 425,633
· Ukraine – 355,260
· (Canada is 24th, with 60,759)
Sources: https://www.covid-19us.live/, https://www.covid-19canada.com/
Pandemic updates on Tuesdays and Fridays each week. Produced on a voluntary basis as a community service. To provide accurate and timely information on a local, provincial, national and international basis, all in one space.
With love and hope,
Jaimie McEvoy, New Westminster, BC

A case for gold & silver

Debunking Criticism on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (The Spoon Fed Research Paper)

First I would like to give credit to
"Indus ka Nalka (tarikhdan)" who introduced me to this piece of information.
Now lemme copy paste the stuff here with better formating ;))

Contributors:

Zahid Khan
Guo Changgang
Muhammad Afzaal
Riaz Ahmad
Samuel Aron Issack

To cite this article: Zahid Khan , Guo Changgang , Muhammad Afzaal , Riaz Ahmad & Samuel
Aron Issack (2020): Debunking Criticism on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, The Chinese
Economy, DOI: 10.1080/10971475.2020.1792065
To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2020.1792065
Published online: 24 Jul 2020.
1.) Institute of Global Studies, College of Liberal Arts, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China;
2.) World History Department, Center for Global Studies, Center for Turkish Studies and Dean of Graduate School at Shanghai University, Shanghai, China;
3.) School of Foreign Languages, Shanghai Jia Tong University, Shanghai, PR China;
4.) School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi’ian Jiaotong University, Xi’ian, China.

Abstract:

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a pilot flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Although this project has been received in a relatively positive manner by actors regionally and worldwide, it has also been subject to serious criticisms in domestic and international publications. These criticisms include the claims that Pakistan might become a colony or province of China, and that Pakistan is faced with a debt-trap as a result of Chinese loans. This article outlines these claims and proceeds to show that neither stands up to close scrutiny. Moreover, the article approach is alienated into two parts; first, looks at how the distinctive criticism propagated by critics whilst secondly, a critical approach is used to debunk all these criticism with the help of respondents’ reactions. Consequently, it may provide few policy recommendations.

Keywords: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor; Belt and Road Initiative; criticism; colonization; debt-trap.

Introduction:

With the inception of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project, an atmosphere of criticism and misinformation has been propagated by several local and international publications which ultimately goals to make CPEC more controversial and representing a negative image of China around the world. Before debunking the imprecise copious criticism, it is a pre-requisite to understand the rationale of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project that why Pakistan crave for it and agreed with China to lay its foundation? In-fact, this project is blessing for Pakistan’s economic growth. China truly abetted Pakistan to draw world attention toward new Pakistan with a vision of economic development, political stability, and regional peace. Woefully, everyone thought that Pakistan is a safe zone for terrorist networks due to the international political agendas. However, president of China Xi Jinping’s signature on an agreement with Pakistani premier Nawaz Sharif in April 2015 laid a foundation of mega project of CPEC. As a result of this, the world began to view Pakistan as a safe haven for billions of dollars of Chinese investment. It was quoted from the wall street journal that “CPEC–Draws world attention to Pakistan” and all of sudden Pakistan got a new identity (Iqbal, 2018).
Structurally, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a pilot flagship project of BRI plan supplemented with an initial worth of $46 billion which was exceeded to $62 billion later on. This project is based on the core formula of “1þ4” comprising the CPEC project and four portfolios include: Infrastructure investment, Energy, Industrial Cooperation and Gwadar Port (Askari,2015).
Certainly, the portfolios of project provide a pave-line to the country’s better infrastructure, transportation system, energy needs and growing dwindle economy of Pakistan (Butt, 2017). Prior to CPEC project, the country has had worn-out more strategically and politically by other major powers and pushed into the war zones because of their strategic ally. They often supported weak governance system of Pakistan, the corrupt political elites and helped them financially without a proper accountability. In the last seventy years history of Pakistan, no major power offered truly Pakistan as an economic allay, nevertheless, pushing Pakistan into the cage of IMF loans with conditional high interest rates which ultimately leading to the debt-trap policies.
Likewise,Pakistan suffered a lot and lost more than 30,000 lives in the so-called war on terror, and eventually left isolated regionally and worldwide. Before the inception of CPEC project, the foreign investors were not ready to invest in Pakistan because of inexorable security situations. Meanwhile, the foundation of CPEC project appeared as a blessing for Pakistan’s economic growth which marked a new identity to Pakistan with a vision of economic development, political stability, and regional peace (Iqbal, 2017a).
Initially, CPEC project is highly propped-up by Pakistan and considered as a game-changer for Pakistan’s socio-economic development. Nevertheless, it is officially opposed by India due to its conventional adversary with Pakistan, and also frequent strategic skepticism raised by United State (Khan et al., 2018). In doing so, the global and regional competitors of China are endeavoring to make CPEC project more controversial through criticism and propagation of cherry-picked information’s with the help of “redundant sources.” The central idea of the question is more critical and complex, which is alienated further into two key parts; foremost one is that numerous scholars and analysts are arguing that CPEC project will lead Pakistan to the China’s colony, and also compared it with the former British East India (BEIC) Company of subcontinent. The second part addresses the argument of debt-trap that the loans of CPEC project are high interest based, and unable to re-pay for Pakistan in current economic situations. Hence, the diverse parts of key question are measured with the help of critical approach which is not focused on take-out the project but rather prefer to improve it through raising awareness, critical reflection and self-analysis (Robbins & Barnwell, 2016).

CPEC may leads Pakistan to the China’s colony?

This section of the paper mainly focuses on the pivotal argument that CPEC may lead Pakistan to China’s colony, which is identical to the on-going criticism regarding china’s colonization plan for Pakistan through CPEC particularly, and BRI in general. In-fact, the foundation of CPEC is unlocked the door for pointless assumptions and pessimistic narrative for China competitors regionally and world-wide and stabbed to create a fear and misunderstanding among the BRI members states. One of the biggest myth propagated on CPEC is that Pakistan might become a colony or province of China. Historians and experts are well aware that colonialism and imperialism are legacies of countries of the global north. The prolonged history of China is free from invasion to other territories, and never harbored imperial structure (Iqbal, 2017d).
Rationally, the skeptics point-out trade deficit with China as a reason to show concern on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. For instance, Mourdoukoutas (2018) claimed in forbs that “One day, China will turn Pakistan into its own ‘Semi-colony’, as it did recently with Sri-Lanka.”
He argued on the basis of current account deficit, government debt, and external debt. According to him, the current account deficit recorded $3867 million for Pakistan in the 4th quarter of 2017. The state current account averaged $-587.18 million from 1976 to 2017—the highest value of $1418 million recorded in the 3rd quarter and lowest value of $-4419 million in the 2nd quarter of 2017.
Likewise, the state’s total government debt equivalent to 67.20 percent of the state GDP in 2017. Pakistan’s external debt raised to $88891 million in the fourth quarter of 2017 from $85052 million in the 3rd quarter of 2017. In the meantime, Pakistan’s foreign capital flows and foreign 2 Z. KHAN ET AL. currency reserves are dwindling, making it increase likely that Pakistan will ask to re-schedule its debt to China. May be, this debt would be transfer to equity, which in essence will handle CPEC to China. While taking CPEC into consideration, China has already invested about 20 percent of Pakistan’s total economy ($270 billion). However, by 2030 Pakistan would have to pay back $90 billion and this would be an additional burden (Sood, 2017).
In addition, Mourdoukoutas compared CPEC project with Sri-Lankan Hambantota port where’s China rescheduled the Sri-Lankan debt, transferred the port officially into China’s port for 99 years lease. This lease agreement gives leverage to the Chinese officials and merchants and accounted for 70 percent stake in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) prominent station. The port development initiated with loans from China, nevertheless, Sri-Lanka could not pay-back and ultimately, China converted these loans into equity, in essence turning Sri-Lanka into a “semi-colony” dramatically (Mourdoukoutas, 2018).
Likewise, Zumburn (2018) reported in Wall Street Journal that China gives huge loans to the developing countries and invest in BRI member states. However, some recipients are not in position to pay-back them. He also quoted the same instance of Sri-Lankan seaport and dubbed that China’s security ports are potentially strategic maritime trade routes. He also compared these types of loans with “Debt-trap Diplomacy” and corollaries that China could do it again.
Indeed, Pak-China relationship is “all-weather friendship” but why relying too heavily on China, and placing of its much state economy in the hands of Chinese investors which resented by those who fear that the country will become a de-facto colony of China. Regarding trade- deficit issue, the respondent reaction is more substantial, as statement of Ahsan Iqbal (former federal minister) released by Pakistan Embassy Norway that China’s competitiveness in exports is universal and not distinct to Pakistan.
Whereas, in depth analysis reveals the current trade deficit of China with Pakistan and other competitor states such as US and India provides an insight to debunk the false insight of colonialism. Pakistan’s current trade deficit with China is $6.2 billion. In comparison, The trade deficit of US with China marked a new record of $375.2 billion in 2017, raised from $347 billion in 2016, an increase of $28.2 billion which is equal to 8.1 percent, and India trade deficit stands at $47 billion (Iqbal, 2017b).
However, the phenomenon makes an argument that if trade deficit becomes the cause of colonization; It gives birth to an argument that the US and India are tended to becoming colonies of China which can never be assumed.
Likewise, it is bizarre to make such claims about the Pak-China relationship. Both countries respect the sovereignty of each other, and CPEC is based on the shared vision of both countries: BRI and vision 2025 (Iqbal, 2017b).
Prior to the CPEC, Pakistan trade deficit with China was high if compares with the current trade deficit. Xia (2019) reported the statistics of State of Bank (SBP) that Pakistan’s trade deficit with China decreased to $5.48 billion (11-percent) during the last eight months from July 2018 to February 2019 as compared to trade deficit of $6.22 billion in the same period of preceding year.
Correspondingly, the SBP data noted two key reasons for decreasing trade deficit of Pakistan with China, including an increase in Pakistani exports to China and a rapid drop in its imports from China. Where’s Pakistan exports to China increased by 3.8 percent to $1.15 billion as compare to the exports of $1.106 billion recorded from July 2017 to February 2018.
Likewise, Pakistan’s imports from China also decreased by 9.43 percent to $6.63 billion from $7.32 billion in the same period. On annual basis, Pakistan’s imports from China dropped to $686.1 million in February 2019 against the imports worth of $786.6 million recorded during early months of the same period. The country’s export was increased when Pakistani’s premier Imran Khan shown his desire to increase the country’s overall annual exports to $27 billion from existing $23.4 billion. Kundi (2019) highlighted that Pakistan didn’t exploit well the Free Trade Agreement (FTA)-1 signed between China and Pakistan in 2006.
However, the China-Pakistan Free trade Agreement (CPFTA) Phase-2 was resulted after the eleventh round of debate in April 2019, and was signed between the leadership of both countries. Pakistan also secured tariff relaxation and duty free market access for 313 tariff lines.

THE CHINESE ECONOMY 3:

Likewise, the critics of China’s overseas investments highlighted the case of the Sri- Lankan port of Hambantota—the previous Sri-Lankan president agreed to swap equity in the loss-making venture to China in exchange for debt forgiveness (Rafiq, 2017; Zumburn, 2018).
The Sri-Lankan president Mahinda Rajapaka’s lend billions of dollars in loan from China government for infrastructure projects in his own constituency (Shah, 2016). The total national debt of Sri-Lanka is approximately $64.9 billion, of which $8 billion owed to China. Initially, he borrowed $301 million money from China with high interest rate of 6.3 percent, while the interest rate on soft loans from Asian Development Bank (ADB) and World Bank are available in the range of 0.25 to 3 percent. The previous government was more corrupt and due to weak governance system and dwindle economy, they didn’t pay back the due loans on time which ultimately transferred to the equity (Economic Times, 2017).
In response, the Barry Sautman, a professor in the Division of Social Science at Hong Kong University of Science & Technology stated that false myth propagated by international media that Sri Lanka’s government was forced to sign a “lease contract” of Hambantota port for 99 years just after the failing to repay Chinese loans that were racking up 6.3 percent interest “are untrue”.
He added more in his recent article published on the South China Morning Post (SCMP) that China hold an estimated 9 to 15 percent of Sri- Lanka external debt which is based on his team field research in Sri-Lanka. While remaining all high-interest loans from commercial banks, which are mainly Western based. International sovereign bonds hold about half of its external debt, with "Americans holding two-thirds of their value and Asians only about 8 percent."
Likewise, Sri-Lanka must pay interest rate averaging 6.3 percent on international loans within 7 years. On the contrary, more than 2–3rd of the value of Chinese financing to Sri-Lanka from 2001 to 2007, including 2–3rd to Hambantota port, bear only 2 percent of interest, and mostly repayable more than 20 years, he argued. "Ironically then, if Sri Lanka is debt distressed, it owes more to American and other Western entities than to Chinese," (MOFCOM, 2019).
Nevertheless, the borrowing of money, lease or interest base systems exist world-wide. Likewise, IMF and other international financial institutions are also providing high interest- based loans to the developing and smaller nations which ultimately leads to the debt trap (Shah, 2016).
Secondly, few of critics claimed that China’s increasing population in Pakistan is an alarming situation for the country and compared it with colonial structure. For instance, Chaudhury (2018) reported in Economic Times that under the CPEC project, China is going to construct a modern city for 5,00,000 Chinese nationals at a cost of $150 million in Gwadar region. Half a million Chinese nationals will be housed in proposed city of Gwadar by 2022. In-fact, these nationals are workforce for the financial district of Gwadar. This zone will be specified merely for Chinese citizens, which basically means that Pakistan will be used as a colony of China.
Iqbal (2017d) responded immediately that only few thousand of Chinese nationals are living in Pakistan and making a positive contribution to country’s economy. Most of them are labor migrants who will leave back to China after completion of the projects. In contrary, approximately 8 million Chinese are living in Malaysia, 900,000 in Canada, 600,000 in Japan and 400,000 in France and more than 2.5 million are living in the United States. In that circumstances, to claims that Chinese nationals are surpassing Pakistani society is simply a bluffing while nothing to do with reality.
Thirdly, critics argued that the on-going CPEC development project is a new model of East India Company (EIC) which leads Pakistan to the China’s colony. This issue sparked when the former senator Tahir Mashhadi voiced against exorbitant loans and power tariffs demand according to the Beijing interest (Shah, 2016).
It’s really a shabby and hyperbole approach of copious critics to compare age of imperialism with current globalization era and modern international political system which is based on the notion of nation-state. This is not an age of imperialism or radical type of colonization. If we recalled the history of colonization, when the British colonized sub-continent in the mid of 19th century, that was a true model of “Empire-state” system 4 Z. KHAN ET AL. worldwide (Rothermund, 2006).
There is a zilch matching between both the cases. The primarily intention of EIC was doing trade in subcontinent which ultimately shifted to the power under three diverse components:
The first component was the economic, political and social environment which shaped the company’s internal state;
the second was the decision-making part which was a controlling mechanism;
and the third was the operational part which dealt with the actual physical aspects of trade.
Besides, there were no proper ingress and trade policies, and lack of governance system to ensure check and balance which ultimately overthrew the local rule by brutal use of British force (Chaudhuri, 1978).
As the distinguished British historian Darymple noted that the most crucial part of EIC colonization was that they had private army of about 260,000—twice of the size of the British Army, with Indian revenues of 225.3 million and expenses 234.5 million (Dalrymple, 2015).
Likewise, with an end of colonization era, all the empires segregated into numerous independent states and republics with demarcated boundaries and specific constitution, and at present, they can demonstrate well to protect their territorial integrity and sovereignty with all possible means. In South Asian region, Afghanistan is the most recent example of it, where’s the US susceptible to establish US-led government and hegemonic power throughout of Afghanistan. In-spite of that the present leadership of US is seeking a safe way for an esteem exit from Afghanistan (Hussain, 2019).
Nonetheless, there is a huge disparity between EIC and CPEC. In case of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, China respect Pakistan’s sovereignty and integrity—both the countries enjoy a long testified friendship based on mutual trust, cooperation and admiration (Shah, 2016).
Moreover, the government of Pakistan setup Special Security Division (SSD) for the security of project with a total strength of 13,700 armed forces (nine regular military battalions and six Paramilitary wings) which are quite enough to protect this project from internal and external security threats (Xuequan, 2017).
Similarly, Board of Investment (BOI) mandate under the government of Pakistan encompasses policy reforms to update their trade policies and regulatory framework, signed MOUs and bi-lateral investment treaties, provisions of contract and partnership Acts, the security clearance for work visas, handling entry permits, policy for opening of liaison or branch offices, lease system, introduced legal framework for investment and establishment of special economic zones through industrial clusterization (Board of Investment, 2018).
Regardless, several critics arguing that CPEC project is a “debt-trap” for Pakistan which leads Pakistan to the worst economic situation, as Noor Ahmed, secretary of the Economic Affairs Division of Pakistan (EADP) responded that the Pakistan’s total foreign debt is about $106 billion. Of which, Chinese loans account for only 10 to 11 percent, while the remaining are from the International Monetary Fund, Paris Club, and other Western organizations.
He added more that China always supported Pakistan during tough economic crises. Through the establishment of CPEC, China is building infrastructure in Pakistan to save its dwindling economy, and some of its money coming into Pakistan are purely an investment, some are interest-free loans, and other loans are based on friendly terms (MOFCOM, 2019).

Is CPEC a debt trap project for Pakistan?

With the speedy advancement through CPEC in Pakistan, several domestic and international criticism appeared against the project and termed the multi-billion dollar project as a “debt-trap” for Pakistan, and presumed that it would be double burden on Pakistan’s economy (Malik, 2019).
Although, CPEC is a development project and it has a huge potential to transform the socio-economic makeup of Pakistan. Nevertheless, copious heckler worried that it would lead to the debt-trap, and making Pakistan a colony of China.
Correspondingly, a Pakistani prominent economist, Hafeez Pasha highlighted a serious concern over Pakistan potential to service the growing debt. He has already calculated that the debt to GDP ratio goes higher from 70 percent to 90 percent, which is a challenging issue for country economy (Khalik, 2018).
Likewise, Page and Shah (2018) THE CHINESE ECONOMY 5 reported in Wall Street Journal that there are skepticism's regarding government forecasts that China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will increase economic growth from 5.8 percent to 7 percent by 2023, letting Pakistan to service its debt. It was also highlighted in March IMF report that Pakistan’s rising current account deficit and external debt obligations partly on CPEC, and predicated growth would flat-line at 5 percent until 2023. Therefore, “the new regime of Pakistan will have to do some adjustment, with us or without us,” said by Teresa Daban, the IMF representative in Pakistan.
Regardless, this plan is also considered as a model of Debt Trap Diplomacy (DTD), claimed by an Indian strategist, Brahma Chellaney*. He noted that China is assisting small and developing countries with high interest loans which are unable to pay for them, and ultimately undermine those countries sovereignty. His view reflects an Indo-American consensus, as suggested by Tillerson’s reference to “predatory economics” (Chellaney, 2017). He added more in project syndicate that China is offering infrastructure financing and loans for unstable projects to protect Beijing access to the local markets or resources, rather than to lift domestic economies, and ultimately these countries plunge into a debt-trap plan that leaves them vulnerable to China’s influence.*
Chellaney recalled a recent example of Sri-Lanka’s port that Chinese loans were transformed into equity, and ultimately “sea-port” handed over to a Chinese state run company for 99 year lease. Correspondingly, Chaudhury (2017) highlighted in the Economic Times that gradually, these debts are converting into equity, and at the end ownership goes to the Chinese companies that will not just adversely affect on Pakistan and Sri-Lankan economies but also create security implications for India due to China’s steady position in the periphery. This has key lesson for Bangladesh and Nepal where China has guaranteed to invest billions. China has projected a master plan for Pakistan’s economic transformation under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor which is only a strategic plan for China’s colonial control of Pakistan. Beijing paid heavy loans from the Chinese banks at high interest rates to finance the project, and some of the critics presumed that Pakistan would take nearly 40 years to pay back these loans.The Beijing funding for Pakistan is actually a “debt-trap” plan which would take control of country’s economic and strategic sectors. He added more that CPEC is a China project, and Pakistan is the only topographical part of it. Cynical it is, then, Pakistan had already fought against formal communist regime known as “Soviet Union” to control it gaining access to the warm waters, nevertheless, another former communist country is easily permitted for the same access. Additionally, it is undeniable that Pakistan has no benefit from China’s investment, obviously it has, as an estimate shared by Pakistan’s Business Council (PBC) suggest the “project could account for 20 percent of the GDP over the next five years and increase growth by 3 percent. Nevertheless, frequent onlookers prudence Pakistan after how Beijing terms and investment turned bitter in Sri-Lanka, Tajikistan and several parts of the Africa.
In both Sri-Lanka and Tajikistan cases, with mounting costs and debts incurred by the host countries, bulky parts of land were handed over to the Chinese companies in lieu of loans and unpaid funds. It is predictable that Tajikistan had to relinquish one percent of its country to China since they were unable to re-pay loans. Therefore, Ziadi noted that there are still worries that Pakistan would become another province of China, or will be reduced to being a “vassal state” (Chaudhury, 2017; Zaidi, 2017).
In-fact, the “debt-trap” issue sparked at a time when China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has addressed the critical bottlenecks in energy and infrastructure, and both nations have agreed to deepen the base of this initiative (Assadi, 2018). These criticisms were rejected by respondents’ with more rational responses. For instance, the former federal minister, Ahsan Iqbal responded sound to the Pasha argument that even in coming five years, debt ratio will come down from 64 percent. Nevertheless, the borrowing of money does not entail the impression that country will turn into the debt-trap whilst it depends on figuring-out whether the debt is a productive borrowing or un-productive. In doing so, the debts can improve infrastructure of a country and its growth rate, which will help to improve the capacity of the state economy to make it more stable. 6 Z. KHAN ET AL.
Whatever, the liabilities Pakistan has, they are well in capacity of Pakistan to pay-back. But unfortunately, there are several so-called politicians and economic analysts who are always seeking flaws in the entire project of CPEC.
They are trying to construct a “negative narrative” which sometimes gives undue worries to the people of Pakistan that the GDP ratio of Pakistan was going out of control. In 2013, it was 63 percent and the same figure in 2016 as well. But, we are trying to bring it down. Therefore, debt trap issue has no possibility in near future, and the government has a potential to deal with it (Iqbal, 2017b). Moreover, the former advisor to PM, Sartaj Aziz ensured that the CPEC loans for infrastructure are at the rate of 2 percent interest (Concessional-based, nor commercial one), and the payback time is 20 to 25 years. He emphasized the point that most of this outlay is in the form of investment. CPEC loans for infrastructure are on soft-loan basis at the rate of approximately 2 percent and the payback time is 20 to 25 years. Overall investment to GDP ratio will increase due to the CPEC projects.” He added more, "we have achieved 4.5 percent GDP growth this year, which can increase more by overcoming energy shortages. In this regard, energy-related projects in the CPEC can prove to be very helpful. Thus, overcoming the energy shortages will also increase our GDP growth rate, which is expected to increase to 5 percent this year” (Aziz, 2016; Butt, 2016).
Likewise, the Page and Shah criticism on CPEC and BRI in Wall Street Journal is purely based on “redundant sources,” and shows an anti-Beijing narrative. Both the countries officially reacted to theses baseless allegations.
As per statistical data of Pakistani ministry of Finance, 42 percent of the external debt was taken from multi-lateral financial institution, 18 percent from the Paris club. correspondingly, the loans received under the CPEC project accounts to only 10 percent of the total external debt, and it also offers the lower interest rate on concessional-base rather than commercial one (Assadi, 2018). The same statistics were also released by the Chinese embassy in Islamabad, and rejected misinformation’s of the assumed “debt trap” for Pakistan regarding CPEC framework. In the same way, the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi also clarified the figures about debts during his visit to Pakistan by stating that "47 percent of Pakistan’s debt related to the IMF and the Asian Development Bank.” Additionally, Noor Ahmed, secretary of the Economic Affairs Division of Pakistan (EAPD) interviewed to the Xinhua that Pakistan’s overall foreign debt is approximately US$106 billion and Chinese loan accounts for a mere 10 to 11 percent of the total foreign debt, where’s the remaining 89 to 90 percent is from other sources such as International Monetary Fund (IMF), Paris Club, and other western organizations (Malik,2019).
Certainly, the leadership of Pakistan is highly committed to pursuing the strategic and economic relationship with China to new heights. Pakistan has already proved that only 6$billion received as a concessional loan under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor with an interest rate of 2.29 percent along with the grace period of 7 years and a re-payment period of 20 to 25 years. However officials clarified that the debt re-payment will begin in 2021 with an estimated amount of 300–400 million annually and slowly peak to approximately 3.5 billion by fiscal year 2024–25 (Assadi, 2018).
Secondly, criticism is mainly based on the issue of Sri-Lankan sea-port known as “Hambantota International Port.” The former government of the Sri-Lanka didn’t pay back on due time, and ultimately loans were converted into equity.
In response to the criticism, Barry Sautman, professor at HKUST stated that western media is propagating false myths against China, and reported that Sri Lankan government was forced to sign a “lease-contract” of Hambantota port for 99 years just after the failing to repay Chinese loans. He said, “China hold about 9 to 15 percent of Sri-Lanka external debt which is based on his team field research in Sri-Lanka. The remaining all high interest loans from commercial banks which are mainly western based. Ironically then, if Sri-Lanka is debt distressed, it owes more to American and other Western entities than to Chinese.”
In reality, Chinese infrastructure loans have no intention to get a hold on valuable assets of any country or undermine its sovereignty. There is no Chinese plot to control the world (MOFCOM,2019).
Likewise, Deborah Brautigam, an expert on China-Africa relations at John Hopkins THE CHINESE ECONOMY 7 University, rejected openly such allegations in her article published by “New York Time” on April 26. She stated that “found feeble evidence of a pattern signifying that Chinese banks are intentionally funding loss-making projects to obtain strategic advantages for China.”
The Sri-Lankan port is often referred by critics, but “that’s a special case, and it is extensively misunderstood,”
she wrote. Her research conducted by China-Africa Research Initiative at the SIAS*, which include information’s on* more than 1,000 Chinese loans in Africa between 2000 and 2017, totaling more than $143 billion, as well as a study by Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center which has identified and tracked more than $140 billion in Chinese loans to Latin America and the Caribbean since 2005. This research based on the findings, she concluded that “the risks of the BRI are often hyperbole and mischaracterized.” In-fact, the Belt and Road Initiative is a plan of “mutual connectivity and mutual communications” (Soong, 2016).
Apart from, Rhodium Group (RG), a New York based independent research group, published a report on April 29, also rebuffed the debt-trap allegations against China. RG report is also based on 40 cases of external debt renegotiation between 2007 and present year in 24 countries, it was assessed in report that assets grab was a rare case.
“China was obviously tending to re-negotiate the debts.” Another former U.S. official for China during Obama administration, Ryan Hass, and also a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution stated “much of the U.S. government’s narrative on the BRI has been built around debt-trap diplomacy”. He realized a fear that the U.S. government is making an argument that is more persuasive to itself than to others (MOFCOM, 2019).
Correspondingly, an Egyptian economist, Hisham Abu Bakar Metwally serving with the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Trade and Industry, stated that criticisms are mostly twisting around “debt-trap” in African countries, including Ethopia and Kenya. However, the reality is quite clear to all that these developing countries highly need of developing infrastructure such as roads, railways and bridges which could improve their economic development. Therefore, BRI program (formerly known as OBOR) is a new reality for the world to overcome the major problems and achieve development for all (Chenyang & Shaojun, 2018).
The best example of development in Africa is Ethiopia, which annual GDP growth rate is about 7 percent. In the same way, Xu Haoliang, Assistant Secretary General of the United Nations, stated that the belt and road initiative is a worldwide program that has the potential to make possible the achievement of sustainable development goals. Noticeably, it can also fill in the financing gaps and development needs in developing countries with loans and investment from China and other countries (Assadi, 2018;MOFCOM, 2019).
[Note: The Max Lines on This Post is 4000 only allowed hence I'm breaking it up into Two Parts So this will be our Part 1]
The Part 2 Post: https://www.reddit.com/pakistan/comments/jxgqpf/debunking_of_the_debttrap_propaganda_part_2/

forbes 30 under 30 2020 india video

The process to arrive at the Forbes India 30 Under 30, an annual list of India’s brightest young stars, is three-fold. Through online applications, jury recommendations and Forbes India’s own Forbes India team releases the 2020 edition of the coveted ‘Forbes India 30 Under 30’ list, featuring young achievers under the age of 30. The 2020 Forbes India 30 Under 30 list includes the founders, co-founders, and professionals of 30 entities across 17 categories. All under 30 years old, the achievers were arrived at following a three-fold The 2020 edition of Forbes India 30 Under 30 list includes 30 founders, co-founders and professionals across 17 categories. Every year, Forbes releases its list of achievers under the age of 30 CRITERIA: To be eligible for the 30 Under 30 list, the applicant had to have been under 30 years old on December 31, 2019. This means that anybody born in 1990 or later was eligible to be on the list. Ages given in list profiles are as of December 31, 2019. Mumbai: Forbes India team has released the 2020 edition of the coveted ‘Forbes India 30 Under 30’ list, featuring young achievers under the age of 30 that meet our four broad criteria: the impact of their achievements, their ability to disrupt the environment they operate in, the scalability of the business or line of work, and the potential of their ideas in the long term. Forbes India released its annual " 30 Under 30 " list of young achievers and many significant names have made the cut. On the 2020 list is Ogilvy Brand Content Lead Krishnakant Mishra (28), who Forbes 30 under 30 list, India selected for 2020 is here. The list includes entrepreneurs from vasrious startups. The process to arrive at the Forbes India 30 Under 30, an annual list of India’s brightest young stars, is three-fold. Through online applications, jury recommendations and Forbes India's own Forbes Presents the 30 Under 30 Asia Class of 2020: 300 of the brightest young entrepreneurs, leaders, stars Forbes India has come out with its annual list of young achievers under the age of 30 for the year 2020. The promising list contains entrepreneurs, professionals, performers, artists and disruptors across India. The list features stars from 17 categories. Scroll down to see who all made it to the coveted list.

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