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Alabama Slammers Franchise Report - Year 12: A New Era

Welcome back to year twelve of the Alabama Slammers Franchise Report! Here are the links to the previous versions if you want to catch up (2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031). Go ahead and grab some popcorn, this is a long one.
We had another great season last year, followed by another disappointing playoff exit. I like where the franchise is at though. We have great fan interest/loyalty, talent at every level of the organization, and no bad contracts. We’re probably going to have to part with a few key contributors this offseason, but that’s bound to happen when you have as much talent as we do. With a few smart moves, we should push closer to a title this year.
As with the previous versions, I’ll list the moves I made, the rationale behind those moves, the season results, and the future outlook.
Here are the salaries heading into the offseason.
\Unless stated otherwise, all players were re-signed to their one-year arbitration estimate*
Departures (non-trades):
Edwin Aguirre
Aguirre spent some time in the majors last year when Romo was injured but wasn’t needed this season. He’s entering minor league free agency, and I don’t think he’s worth keeping on the 40-man, so he probably won’t be back.
Josh Berkner
Berkner got three shots in the majors and didn’t do much with his opportunities, so I decided to give someone else a chance. He spent the year in AAA.
Tim Mehler
Mehler is great defensively but just can’t cut it at the plate. He was out of options, so I let him leave as a free agent. He signed a minor league deal with the Rockies.
Move #1:
Signed Ali Sanchez to a 2/$3m extension. The second year is a team option with a $500k buyout.
This move isn’t very exciting, but don’t worry, things will heat up below.
Move #2:
Slammers Receive: Luis Godoy, $6.4m Cash
Brewers Receive: Robby Teeter, Sean Whiteman
This move kills three birds with one stone. I cashed out on Teeter while his value was still high, cleared some of the starting pitcher logjam, and added an elite power hitter. Also, the departure of Teeter allows us the ability to build a more versatile roster, which is something I’ve wanted to do for a while.
The Brewers are winning this trade from a straight value perspective, but I’m no longer in the business of trying to win trades. I’m trying to win championships. You can collect all the assets and value contracts in the world, but at the end of the day, you need top end talent to win at the highest level – and Godoy provides that. He has questionable character, but I should have enough leadership to counter his selfish ways.
Move #3:
Slammers Receive: Edgar Sanchez, Bryn Hill, Caleb Gunther, Omar Taborda, Tim Brackman
Athletics Receive: Chris West
West might have more potential than any pitcher in the league, but I felt the opportunity to acquire Sanchez was too great to pass up. He’s an elite defender, above average offensively, has durable injury proneness, and has great character. He could anchor the middle of my infield for the next ten years. West might win the next five Cy Youngs, but I’m betting against that considering his low work ethic and the general injury proneness of pitchers.
Then to make the deal even better, the Athletics threw in an assortment of high character minor leaguers. There might not be a single player in the bunch that makes the majors, but they’ll at least help provide a better environment for other guys.
Move #4:
Slammers Receive: Bob Banks, $3m Cash
Angels Receive: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Why am I getting rid of Tatis for a low-level minor leaguer with a 5% chance of making the majors? You’ll find out when you get to move number six.
The Angels signed Tatis to a 5/$237.5m extension about a week after the trade. I don’t see any way that deal ends well for them.
Move #5:
Slammers Receive: Alan McCarter
Rays Receive: Josh Epps, $1.1m Cash
At surface level, this trade doesn’t make much sense either, but I needed to clear Epps $10m arbitration estimate for next season. I think Epps is what he is at this point and I’m really not that worried about losing him. MacCarter is a good reliever and replaces Epps as the team prankster.
Move #6:
Signed free agent Willie Vega to a 7/$190m deal. The last year is a team option with a $2m buyout.
This is the driving force behind moves five and six. I fully intended to move on from Vega at the start of the offseason, but after looking at my roster at the start of free agency, I decided he was irreplaceable. He provides gold glove defense, above average offense, and hits from the left side of the plate, which makes balancing lineups much easier. I could’ve had him for much cheaper if I decided to commit last year but this is the price of my indecision.
His deal is heavily front loaded and should be movable if things don’t go well later in the contract.
Move #7 (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3):
Slammers Receive: $13.7m Cash
Slammers Lose: Joe Stadler, Randy Macke, Nesty Luna
Nothing much to see here, just your annual “prospects for cash” trades. Macke is a solid player but was rule 5 eligible and I didn’t want to waste a 40-man roster spot on him.
Move #8:
Slammers Receive: $1m Cash
Dodgers Receive: Cooper Benson, Sam Lauderdale, Kade Grundy
This is just a salary dump. I have enough depth now there’s really no point in keeping Benson and Lauderdale around. I threw in Grundy to get some extra cash.
Final Financial Situation:
We have about $27m in budget room to start the year, so should be able to finish the season in the green, but I’ll probably trade a few more prospects to get closer to completing the owner goal of finishing with a balance of $20m. I’m also boosting ticket prices from $35 to $40, so that should help as well.
Here are the salaries heading into the season.
Season Outlook:
I’m very interested to see how this season turns out. We’ve been cruising along the past 2-3 years with the same core roster but really shook things up this offseason. I think these moves put us in a better position to win now and in the future, but there’s always the concern I’m just making moves out of boredom. Here are the five things I’m most curious about heading into the season:
1.) Can Vega provide close to what he’s provided the past few years? I didn’t give him that contract in anticipation of him becoming the next Barry Bonds, I just want him to keep doing what he’s doing. If he can do that for another three years, I’ll be happy.
2.) Is MacDonald really a top of the line starting pitcher? He was the best reliever in the league last year and his trade value is sky high. Every team I traded with this offseason valued him as my second-best asset after Chris West. His overall rating is really good, but I’m concerned about his lack of stuff and questionable stamina/hold runners combo.
3.) How does the offense perform after losing our 3-4 hitters from last season? I know I replaced one of them with Godoy, but players tend to struggle when first joining a new team, and we don’t have a second premier middle of the order bat. We’ll mostly be doing an offense by committee approach.
4.) Can Hines handle a full-time starting role? With the departure of Tatis, I’m moving Bernal to third base and starting Hines at first. He’s not a traditional first baseman but he played well last year and has an efficient ratings profile. I’ll be happy if he provides league average offense.
5.) How will the Hopper/Muntner DH platoon fare? Hopper should be an elite leadoff man vs. RHP and Muntner should be solid vs. LHP. I’m hoping Hopper can play a full season if he doesn’t have to play in the field.
If things go well, we should win another 100+ games and make a strong push at a title.
Batters:
Primary Lineup vs. RHP and vs. LHP when Healthy (\DH enabled in both leagues, lineup vs. RHP listed below)*
DH – Jeff Hopper
Other than a day-to-day injury to end the year, Hopper stayed healthy the entire season and played really well. He had an OBP of .370 and provided exactly what I wanted from the leadoff spot. He should be back in the same role next year.
3B – Ernesto Bernal
I forgot to mention above, but Bernal signed a 5/$110m in the offseason. He’s an all-star, has high character, durable injury proneness, and is in the prime of his career, so it made a lot of sense to bring him back at this price. He’s been with the organization for ten years and it would be really cool to have him around for ten more.
He moved from first to third base this season and made his third all-star team.
RF – Luis Godoy
Godoy didn’t have the type of year I expected but was still really good. He was an all-star starter and put up 5.1 WAR in just 128 games. I expect him to be much better next season after having a full year to adjust to his new team.
He missed the last month of the year with a sprained thumb, but he should be fine going forward.
LF – Marcus Flakes
Flakes isn’t the second middle of the order bat I dreamed about as a kid, but he did well in the role, hitting 41 home runs and driving in 101 runs. He still has one more year on a minimum scale deal, so he’ll definitely return.
SS – Willie Vega
Willie Vega: The Fifty Million Dollar Man – That doesn’t really sound appropriate for a guy with 4.6 WAR, but I’m actually very happy with what he did. Him and Sanchez formed an unreal middle infield defensive combo, which resulted in this (major spoilers for the pitcher section).
We’re not out of the woods yet with his contract but I think we’ll be good if he performs well again next year. At the end of next season, he’ll only have 4/$87m guaranteed remaining, which should be moveable if need be.
2B – Edgar Sanchez
I didn’t realize how much Epps was holding us back defensively until Sanchez came to town. He won his third gold glove and was a huge part of the reason we had a team ERA under 3. His offense was average, but I could see that getting much better the next few seasons.
1B – Jonathan Hines
I was hoping Hines would be a league average hitter, and he fell just short of that. I’ll upgrade in the offseason if the right player is available but I’m not going to break the bank. Not every player has to be an all-star.
CF – Joey Hudson
Hudson had a great year and is really starting to establish himself as one of the better center fielders in the league. He probably deserves to bat higher in the order next season, but I might wait for his baserunning to improve just a bit more.
C – Drew Romo
It’s been a long time coming, but Romo finally won his first gold glove. He’s been the best defensive catcher in the game for a while, but I don’t play my guys enough to easily rack up awards. I’d rather have them available for the playoffs.
He’s an upcoming free agent and his offense is falling off a cliff, but I’m probably going to bring him back. If things go poorly, I’ll replace him midseason.
Bench
C – Ali Sanchez
I don’t expect much from my backup catcher, and Sanchez doesn’t provide much, so I guess everyone was happy with the way his season turned out. I think I’m going to decline his team option and go with the guy that replaced him while he was injured.
IF – Manny Monzon
Monzon keeps the middle infield defense elite while the starters rest but doesn’t do much on offense. I might give someone else a shot next year.
OF – Josh Muntner
Muntner served as the primary DH vs. LHP and backed up left and right field against RHPs. He started in 99 games and really didn’t do much with his opportunity, so I guess I was one for two with my DH platoon experiment.
Replacements
C – Danny Wells
Wells filled in for six weeks when Sanchez was injured and didn’t do much worse than the vet. I’m probably going to let him have the backup catcher role next season.
OF – Mike Startzel
Startzel played well last year but I decided to replace him with a right-handed bat. He was called up when Godoy was injured and started the last month of the year in right field.
Pitchers:
Pitching Staff when Healthy
SP – Pat Dibartolo
Dibartolo had another great year, making his third all-star team and finishing fourth in the Cy Young voting. I would love to keep him around until he retires but his ratings have started to slip slightly, and I don’t think he’ll last too long into his thirties. I’ll bring him back for his last arbitration season, then let him walk as a free agent.
SP – Gilles Palacios
Palacios has come a long way since I traded for him in 2028. He was the all-star game starter and won his first Cy Young. I’ll look to sign him long-term in the offseason.
SP – Corey MacDonald
I wasn’t sure if MacDonald was good enough to be a top-of-the-line starter, but there’s no doubt about it now – he’s one of the top pitchers in baseball. He made his second all-star game, threw two complete game shutouts, won the pitcher of the month award in June, won the gold glove award, and finished third in the Cy Young voting. With his high character and durability, he should be a good player for a long time.
SP – Josh Sheppard
Sheppard was the fourth member of our golden pitcher quartet. He made the all-star game and finished second in the Cy Young voting.
SP – Jonathan Kelsey
Kelsey was decent but I had to demote him in June to make room for my number one prospect. He was called back up when rosters expanded and we went to a six-man rotation.
RP – Chris Ryan
I mentioned a few years ago that pitchers with Ryan’s profile never seem to reach their potential and it seems like Ryan has followed suit. He’s a solid player but nowhere near as good as his 70 potential suggested a few years back.
RP – Steve Bacon
Bacon really didn’t pitch enough to properly evaluate. We’ll probably go to an eight-man bullpen next season, and if Bacon is a member of it, we can properly evaluate him then.
RP – Alan McCarter
McCarter was really good and looks like he has the potential to be even better. Hopefully, his control rounds out next season.
RP – Danny Ibarra
Ibarra finally gave up his dream of being a starter and accepted his role in the bullpen. He posted almost identical stats as last year and I hope he does the same next season.
RP – Justus Evans
I wasn’t a big fan of Evans ratings profile but decided to give him a shot since he dominated in AAA last year. He was pretty underwhelming in limited appearances, and probably deserves another look, but he’ll be changing positions next season. Somehow, I didn’t notice he has great batting ratings, especially against lefties, so he’ll be the other half of the DH platoon I’ve been looking for. It’s too bad I disabled two-way players because it’d be nice to have him available as a pitcher in emergencies.
RP – Mike Ruhs
Ruhs is nothing special but he’s cheap and healthy, so he’ll be back next year.
RP – Joe McKinney
McKinney is my favorite kind of reliever. He has all the ratings of an elite starting pitcher, minus the stamina. He dominated for the second straight season and will be back again next year.
RP – Tommy Noonan
Noonan had an FIP of 1.98 and made his first all-star team, but somehow received zero reliever of the year votes. I really don’t see how this is possible since he’s probably the most feared pitcher in all of baseball. He strikes out half the batters he faces, and 60% of those that put the ball in play are hitting it on the ground to the Vega/Sanchez death wall. The voters need to show him some more respect next year.
RP – Glen Alcorn
I took a flier on Alcorn despite his history of back injuries and he’s paid off in a big way. He had an FIP of 1.86 and won the reliever of the year award. He wants to be a starter but there’s no way he’d survive a full season with his health issues.
Replacements
SP – Andy Schaffer
Schaffer was whitewashing AA early in the year, so I had no choice but to call him up. He pitched great in his 21 starts in the majors and might’ve given me a clean top five in the Cy Young voting if he pitched a full season.
Season Results:
We continued to put a stranglehold on the division, building a 20-game lead by the halfway point, then cruising the rest of the way. We locked up first place with 22 games remaining, making that our seventh division crown in nine years.
This year wasn’t about the regular season though. We’ve had multiple disappointing early round playoff exits the last few years and I’m hoping to break through and win our second title. We doubled down on pitching and defense and made sure to keep everyone as fresh as possible during the regular season.
Our injury prevention plan went great for the most part. We had zero pitchers and only two batters spend time on the IL, and one of those batters was a 34-year-old. Unfortunately, one of the batters to miss extended time was the one guy I could least afford to lose. Luis Godoy sprained his thumb in early September and was out through the first round of the playoffs. What luck.
Startzel started at RF in place of Godoy to start the playoffs, and Hudson moved up to the number three spot in the lineup. I’m not crazy about either of these options, but it’s the best we’ve got. We went with a playoff rotation of MacDonald, Palacios, Dibartolo, and Schaffer, and moved Sheppard and Kelsey to the bullpen. Justus and Bacon were left off the playoff roster.
Our first-round matchup was against the 90-72 Rockies. Their only real player of note was Steve Delaney, but he looks like the kind of guy that can swing a series. Then their offense was balanced and deep, with most players having 55+ home run power. We have more talent, but anything can happen at Coors..
Divisional Series Game 1, Slammers Win 4-2 – We started off strong in game one, getting a combined 15 Ks over nine innings from MacDonald, Noonan, and Alcorn. Then Flakes led the way on offense with 3 RBIs. The game was tied most of the way until his go ahead single in the bottom of the eighth.
Divisional Series Game 2, Slammers Win 9-2 – The pitching staff put together another great outing in game two, with Palacios, Alcorn, and Sheppard combining for 15 Ks over nine innings. Flakes led the way on offense with another 3 RBIs.
Divisional Series Game 3, Slammers Win 5-2 – I was worried their offense would come to life at Coors but we were able to keep them at bay and win our third straight game. This time it was Dibartolo, Noonan, and McKinney combining for a dominant pitching performance, with 13 Ks over nine innings. Everyone chipped in on offense to produce five runs.
Divisional Series Game 4, Rockies Win 8-7 (12) – I knew it was bound to happen at some point and it finally did – the Rockies offense came to life. Alcorn and McKinney both blew save opportunities and Ibarra gave up a walk-off homer in the bottom of the twelfth. Flakes continued his hot series with another 4 RBIs.
Divisional Series Game 5, Rockies Win 5-1 – The Rockies continued their offensive surge, taking MacDonald deep three times in four innings. Then Delaney gave them six innings of one run ball. The Rockies have momentum but we’re heading back home with the Cy Young winner scheduled to start game six. I think we’ll be fine.
Divisional Series Game 6, Slammers Win 8-2 – Palacios gave up a two-run shot in the first, then him, Ryan, and Kelsey combined for 13 Ks and 0 ER the rest of the way. Flakes was hot again, launching two three-run homers.
I was worried our offense would stall out without Godoy, but Flakes put the team on his back, winning series MVP behind his 5 home runs and 17 RBIs. We held serve at home and stole one on the road, with our pitching dominating in each of the wins. Godoy is set to return for game one of the NLCS, so I like our odds the rest of the way.
Our next opponent is the 100-62 Nationals. They have the second-best record in baseball and a very talented team. Their offense is led by MVP Doug Bridges and future hall of famer Juan Soto, and the pitching staff features stud starters Clay McAuley and Fabricio Tertlio. This looks like the de facto title series.
NLCS Game 1, Slammers Win 7-3 – Godoy made up for lost time in game one, going 3-5 with two homers and 4 RBIs. Then the pitching was solid with great performances from the usual suspects. Dibartolo, Noonan, and Alcorn combined for 11 Ks and 3 ERs over nine innings.
NLCS Game 2, Slammers Win 3-1 – Schaffer pitched a gem, giving us seven innings and only allowing one run. Then McKinney came in and closed it down with a two inning save. Godoy hit another homer, while Romo and Hines both had run scoring singles.
NLCS Game 3, Slammers Win 3-2 (14) – Whew, what a game. MacDonald and McAuley both went 6.1 innings and gave up two runs, with the last of those coming in the bottom of the seventh. Then no one scored again until the top of the fourteenth when Sanchez hit a go-ahead solo homer. Noonan, Alcorn, McKinney, and Ibarra combined for 7.2 scoreless innings in relief and Godoy hit another two-run homer.
NLCS Game 4, Slammers Win 7-2 – This one was over early. We knocked out their starter in the first and cruised the rest of the way. Palacios and Sheppard combined for 9 innings and 2 ERs, and everyone chipped in on offense.
We made a huge statement with this series. The Nationals thought they were on the same level as us, but we eviscerated them. Godoy won series MVP with his four home runs and eight RBIs.
Up next is the 93-69 Red Sox, led by veteran starting pitcher Nate Pearson. They have a deep and balanced team, but nothing that should give us too many issues. We made a key trade with them last year that netted us Alcorn and Ibarra, while sending out Chang-Hyeok Kim. I bet they wish they could undo that one.
World Series Game 1, Slammers Win 3-2 – Game one was a pitching duel between Pearson and Dibartolo, with Dibartolo coming out on top. Dibartolo, Noonan, and Alcorn combined for 14 Ks and 2 ERs over nine innings. Hopper hit a two-run home run and Godoy continued his hot streak with another solo shot.
World Series Game 2, Slammers Win 6-2 – The pitching came through again with Schaffer, McKinney, and Ruhs combing for 10 Ks and 2 ERs in nine innings. Things are looking good after two games.
World Series Game 3, Red Sox Win 10-8 – Some people say a series doesn’t start until the road team wins a game, so maybe we’re still waiting for this one to kick off. The Red Sox roughed up our pitchers and we lost a shootout late.
World Series Game 4, Slammers Win 7-2 – The pitching got back on track in game four with Palacios and Ryan teaming up to allow 2 ERs over nine innings. Flakes had four hits and Bernal drove in three runs.
World Series Game 5, Red Sox Win 7-5 – Godoy had a huge game, going 3-3 with 2 home runs, a triple, 2 walks, 4 RBIs, and 2 runs scored, but it wasn’t enough for the victory. The Red Sox got to Dibartolo early and we could never climb back. We’re heading back home and looking to close out the series in game six.
World Series Game 6, Slammers Win 11-4 – We scored early and often and took game six in convincing fashion. Godoy provided another 3 RBIs and Schaffer did enough to win. Noonan and Kelsey closed out the last three innings.
After five long years we’re World Series champs once again! Godoy had another huge series and won World Series MVP, capping off an amazing postseason run (seriously, check this out).
This wasn’t as action packed as our 2027 title run, but I enjoyed it just as much. It was very satisfying watching our pitching and defense squeeze the life out of teams. We had a team ERA of 3.32 over 16 games, which is pretty impressive considering we were playing the best teams in the league. The starters were all excellent and the bullpen was lights out. I bet other teams got tired of seeing “Slammers SP – 6.2 IP, 2 ER; Slammers RP 1 – 1.1 IP, 0 ER, Slammers RP 2 – 1 IP 0 ER.” It was like clockwork.
Noonan, Alcorn, and McKinney were particularly impressive. Noonan had an FIP of 0.62 in seven appearances and struck out 23 of the 43 batters he faced. McKinney had an FIP of 0.95 in 9.2 innings and only allowed 6 baserunners. Then Alcorn allowed zero runs in five of his seven appearances. I don’t think I would swap these guys for any other relievers in the league.
From everything I’ve written above, it’s pretty obvious that we won this championship with pitching and defense, so I think it’s worth mentioning Vega’s contract again. $50m for 4.6 WAR is terrible value but it’s not always about that. It’s about getting the right players for your team, regardless of how valuable their contracts are. It’s really easy to get caught up in trying to win the $/WAR game, but they don’t give out championships for that – they only give out World Series titles.
Here are the rest of the playoff results and MLB standings.
Also, I usually don’t mention minor league records since I don’t think they’re overly important, but we had all of our minor league teams finish with a winning record this season. Good job everyone!
Top Prospects:
We’ve turned in to a starting pitching factory. I can’t get guys to free agency quick enough to make room for the new guys coming up. This is a good problem to have, but I wish I could do as well with developing batters. It just seems so much harder to identify top position players outside of the top ten in the draft, and I can’t develop them as well either. Either way though, the farm is in great shape and should continue to be for years to come.
1.) Eddie Copping
Copping might not have the highest upside on the list but he’s the safest bet to make the majors. He had a great year in AA, winning pitcher of the year, and his ratings are pretty much major league ready. He’ll probably start next year at AAA since I have a logjam of starting pitchers.
2.) Chris Dearborn
Dearborn has great character, durability, and ratings across the board. He had a good year in A- and will contend for Cy Young awards one day if he reaches his full potential.
3.) Alex Rivera
Rivera’s offensive potential has regressed since last year, but his defensive ratings improved. He struggled in A, so will repeat the level next year. Hopefully, I didn’t cause any permanent damage to his development by promoting him too early.
4.) Jose Gutierrez
Gutierrez had a monster year in rookie ball and saw his ratings progress nicely since last season. If his catcher ability can make it to 65-70, he’ll be my starting catcher one day.
5.) Chris Brown
Brown was my first-round selection in this year’s draft. He has below average stamina and hold runners, but all of his other potential ratings are elite. He performed well in rookie ball, but I might give him another year there to improve his control.
6.) Chris Larkin
Larkin continued his steady ascent through the system, posting a good year in A+ and seeing his ratings improve since last season. He’ll start next year in AA and should be ready for the majors sooner than later.
7.) Edwin Mireles
Mireles had a solid year in A+ but missed a lot of time to injury. He’ll start next season in AA, but I won’t hesitate to trade him if the right deal comes along.
Here are his ratings from last season.
8.) Bobby Butler
I still don’t trust Butler and his normal injury proneness, but his talent is undeniable. His ratings have improved across the board since last season and he looks ready for promotion to AA. Like Mireles, I’ll trade him if the right deal comes along.
9.) Luis Arguello
If you’ve been paying close attention, you might’ve noticed Arguello is the fourth starting pitcher in the top nine from the 2030 draft. He doesn’t have the same upside as the other guys but he’s a pretty safe bet to be a back of the rotation starter, and if his movement improves, he could be elite. He’ll start next season at A+.
10.) Josh McBride
McBride’s skills have rounded out since last year and he looks ready for the majors. I doubt he’ll ever be a star, but there’s definitely value in a guy that can competently play eight positions.
Honorable mentions:
Joe Poffenberger
Poffenberger looks like the real deal but I’m always skeptical of guys with normal injury proneness and no positive character attributes. He’ll start next season at A, and we’ll find out more about him there.
Omar Taborda
I would’ve been foaming at the mouth to get Taborda in the starting lineup a few years ago but Vega and Sanchez have the middle infield on lock for the next several seasons. He might replace Monzon as the utility infielder next year, but it probably makes more sense to trade him while his value is highest.
Steve Flores
Flores made the list two years ago due to a lack of better options, but I think he’s a legitimate prospect now. He might not ever bat his weight, but he could be one of the greatest defensive shortstops of all time. I’m hoping his high character allows his offensive skills to improve the next few years.
Ray Zaragoza
I had every intention of trading Zaragoza after his season ending injury last year but there really wasn’t much interest in him. Unfortunately, he suffered another season ending injury in his first game back this year, so I doubt there will be any more interest in him now. I think I’m going to force start him as a reliever so he has a chance to make the majors in some capacity.
Promoted to MLB:
Andy Schaffer
Dropped from list:
Josh Boston
So, a low character guy is fizzling out, guess I shouldn’t be too surprised. Here are his ratings from last year.
Future Outlook:
We’re in amazing position going forward. We just won the World Series, have the top four Cy Young award vote getters, have the ability to bring back everyone, and could probably even bring in another MVP caliber player. Then for good measure, we also have a great farm system. The rest of division is looking up in awe.
So, where do we go from here? It’s really fun racking up championships but it can get kind of boring after a while. I know I don’t have enough titles to be complaining about boredom yet, but we look like we’re trending in that direction. I’m thinking about making some league wide adjustments to shake things up. Here are the changes I’m considering this offseason:
1.) Re-align the Divisions
I loved the rivalry with the Braves when I first started the franchise, but we’ve kind of got our foot on their necks at the moment, and I don’t see them getting back up anytime soon. We’ve established such a strong position in the division it’s almost impossible for them to make the playoffs, and with every passing year their fan interest/loyalty gets worse and the gap between us and them only grows larger. The Cardinals are in a similar situation, and the Marlins might as well be a minor league team.
I’m thinking about re-aligning the divisions based on winning percentages from the last twelve years, putting the top four teams in one division, the next four teams in another, and so on. This would give teams like the Marlins a chance to make the playoffs and make it where teams like ours can’t put a long-term strangle hold on a division. I could re-align every ten years or so to make sure no one gets too strong of a position.
2.) Expand the Playoffs
This is the simplest change I could make but the one I like least. We currently have 32 teams in the league and eight of them make the playoffs, so it really feels like an accomplishment to make it and the playoff bracket sets up perfectly. If we added two wildcards to each division, we’d need to give two teams in each conference a bye, which isn’t somethings I’m crazy about doing. Then if we added four wildcards, or let the top two from each division qualify, it would really diminish the regular season. I seriously doubt I go this route.
3.) Eliminate Divisions
This is an appealing option, but I’ve had issues with it in the past. Basically, it becomes too easy to make the playoffs because you don’t have to worry about a juggernaut appearing in your division. If there’s a 110-win team in the league, who cares, you’ll still make the playoffs with 100 wins, so you can really let off the gas during the regular season. I might give it another try though.
4.) Expand the League
This is mostly a temporary solution, but it could make things more difficult in the short term. I have way too many players to protect in an expansion draft, so would definitely lose some depth. I might do this along with re-alignment, but it’s not a permanent balancing solution.
5.) Add Promotion and Relegation
I think this is the best route to giving everyone a chance at winning but it would require some pretty radical changes to the league. Here are some of the things I would have to figure out: Who starts out in the lower league? Do I introduce expansion teams at the same time? How many teams make the playoffs? How many teams are promoted/relegated each year? How do I do the financials? Then there are probably another thirty things I haven’t thought of yet. This is probably what I should do, but I don’t know if I’m ready to make that leap yet.
Here is the budget and salaries heading into the offseason.
submitted by ZenMasta61 to OOTP [link] [comments]

How James Loses: The Most Realistic Scenario

The year is 2024. James has been a contestant on Jeopardy for over 5 seasons. Due to the amount of money he won after over his first full season, investors lost confidence in Sony to stay afloat, sending the companies stock price into a downfall. This lead to the company being acquired by Disney for peanuts. With this new capital, Disney began looking into new ventures to expand even further. In 2021, they announced their plans to turn "Disney's Wide World of Sports" into "Disney's Wide Universe of Sports". This effort was spearheaded by Disney purchasing the MLB and all 32 of its professional baseball teams. Classic franchises were converted to promotions for Disney's world famous IPs. The day that the James beloved Chicago Cubs announced they were being re-branded as the Chicago Small "Baloo"s, he recorded his lowest score of $20,000. However, it would soon become clear that James' sentimental attachment to sport's franchises would not be the only thing hurt, his financial stakes in athletics were next to be targeted.
After acquiring the NFL in 2022, President Bob Iger decided that sports needed to have a better narrative. A team of scriptwriters was assembled to write season 1 of the NFL. It was full of comebacks, missed field goals, hail mary plays, and a lot of singing mascots. At first, this predictable plot structure was good for James. He would always pick the franchise named after the good guy, and this strategy never let him down. In Super Duper Bowl LVII he picked the Orlando Mickey’s to beat the Chicago Lots-O-Huggin Bears and doubled everything he had. This was the game that led to Vegas ultimately closing down all betting lines on sports, as they no longer had the edge.
James figured he would be okay. Jeopardy had yet to pay him his $64 million in earnings as his contract stated he would be paid upon losing. He had already donated most of his money to Las Vegas area charities, and was slowly watching his bank account drain. He approached many investors to give him a loan so that he could continue on the show, but this opened him up to an interesting paradox. If the investors gave him money, he would never lose and would thus never get his money from the show and be able to pay the investors back. However, if they didn’t invest, he would have to quit the show and would then be able to pay the investors.
James then approached Disney to renegotiate his contract and see if they would be interested in putting him on salary to keep him on the show. However, due to James’ domination on the show, not many smart people saw appearing on the show as a good opportunity, and thus James began to dominate even more. If he were to remain on the show, they would have to pay salary and future prize earnings, but if he had to leave they would only have to pay a fraction. They would take a ratings hit, but this would be offset by replacing Alex Trebek with America’s sweetheart, Stephen A. Smith.
James realized the predicament he was in. Professional sports gambling was no longer the safe and prosperous career that we all used to think it was. He had no means to gain outside capital, and it seemed like Jeopardy wanted him out anyway. He headed to the studio ready to tape what would be win #1000.
He walked into the studio, shook hands with his fellow contestants Wolf Blitzer and the kid who misspelled “Emancipation Proclamation”, and headed out to the stage. Stephen A. Smith walked onto the stage, did not thank Johnny, ranted for a few minutes about why the Dallas Woody’s sucked, and then announced the categories. James quickly sprung into action, taking the 15 highest point values to give him a total of $12,600 at the first Disney Upcoming Films break. As he answered the next 13 questions, his anticipation grew as he had not yet hit the first daily double. There were two remaining $200 clues left on the board. He picked the one in the top left corner, using his Jeopardy sabermetrics that told him Daily Doubles were not traditionally in the left-most column.
The clue sprung onto the screen. He could feel his heartbeat out of his chest.
It wasn’t the daily double. He took a sigh of relief. Stephen A. Smith read out the clue, “This modern day company began the 24 hour news cycle”. James knew the answer. He went to click his buzzer, but right when Stephen A. Smith finished the clue, he began to go straight into a rant about how in his prime he could have posterized MJ in his prime. Due to buzzing in too early, James would be locked out, and his perfect game would be in… Jeopardy.
“Wolf Blitzer, we go to you,” said Stephen A. Smith. James sank.
“What is CNN?” he asked/answered.
However, James had read the news that morning and knew this was incorrect. He began vigorously buzzing in.
“That is incorrect, James we go to you.”
“What is Disney/CNN?”
“Correct, and the next one will be the Daily Double”
James went for the true daily double and nailed it. The next round came and as he answered more and more questions, he realized that the two remaining daily doubles would be in the $400 row. After getting both of them, Stephen A. Smith made note that a perfect game would be possible if he bet everything on Final Jeopardy, but this was still not comparable to Brady’s 10 championship rings.
The lights dimmed, and James was alone on the stage. The category was “Famous Dates”. James had memorized the entire chronology of the universe in preparation for the show, so he went all in. The clue was then read:
“The day that shall live in infamy”
James gave a sigh of relief and wrote down 12/07/1941, the date of the attack on Pearl Harbor. He chuckled to himself, not because Pearl Harbor was funny, but because it was amazing how it all came full circle. He would always write his bets based on important dates, and now an important date would be the end to his perfect game, and legacy on Jeopardy. It was something you couldn’t write.
Suddenly James’ eyes opened wide. This was something you could write. He quickly realized this was all a setup. Disney knew this was his last game and were trying to set up the perfect ending. James quickly scratched out his answer and wrote down the date of his first taping day.
The music stopped and the lights again came up in the studio. Stephen A. Smith said, “James, you look certain of this one, let’s see what you wrote down.”
His answer came up, and the audience gasped.
Stephen A. Smith began to stammer, “James, that is incorrect, I don’t understand…”
James smiled at him and said, “Kebert Xela.”
A violent wind broke out in the studio and a vortex opened on the clue screen. The audience and crew began to evacuate the building, but James calmy approached the portal. He put his hand through the portal and felt no turbulence on the other side.
“A strange game,” he said.
“The only winning move is not to play.”
He stepped through the screen. He found himself in the studio, but there was no wind, and instead the only chaos was the crew members looking for the third contestant. One man ran over to him and asked if he was James Holzhauer. He said yes and the man told him that if he didn’t get over to his stand in the next minute he would be disqualified. He thanked the man, and instead of heading over to his podium, he walked backstage.
He walked until he got to the room that said “Alex Trebek”, and knocked on the door.
Alex opened the door and said, “They just finished touching me up, I’m coming as fast as I-” but was stopped as he saw that it was not a crew member, but instead a man that looked oddly familiar.
“Can I help you?” Alex asked, with a puzzled expression painted on his face.
“No, I think I helped the both of us. And America,” James responded with that classic smile.
“I don’t understand,” Alex said.
“I don’t really either,” James said, “but all I know is that in the time I got to know you, you went through a lot of hardship, but you came out on the other side of it, and for that reason I have the utmost respect for you. Just know that if you ever have hard news to tell people, they will understand, rally behind you, and always love you.”
Alex suddenly looked at ease, “Thank you, I actually needed to hear that right now.”
James put his hand on his shoulder and then gave him a hug.
“I’m supposed to be on the show right now, but I think I’m going to go take my daughter to the park instead,” he told Alex.
“Good for you.”
The two men went their separate ways. James walked out of the studio and felt the warmth of the sun. He felt good, however there was one thing that didn’t feel right. Those children’s charities would not get the money anymore.
Then he remembered.
He knew all the sports outcomes for the next 3 years.
submitted by PassionMonster to Jeopardy [link] [comments]

How Should the Mets Spend This Offseason? My Application for General Manager

Alright, Y'all ready for this? This is my application for Mets general manager. Omar, I hope you're reading this.

1. Projecting payroll

Mets had a payroll ending the season about ~$141 million. Surprisingly enough, of that $141 million, almost $50 million of it is coming off of the books - Devin Mesoraco ($13 million) is a free agent, Jerry Blevins ($7 million) is a free agent, A.J. Ramos ($9.2 million) is a free agent, etc. etc. David Wright is also leaving, freeing up 75% of his remaining contract value for re-investment, which comes out to about $11 million.
Let's also be a bunch of heartless bastards. Team history be damned, baseball is a business, and business is cold, cruel, and doesn't give a shit how many walk-off RBI you have.
That's right, Wilmer Flores and his arthritic knees are gone. Jorge Cantu, listed as one of Flores' most similar batters by Baseball Reference's similarity scores, made $3.5 million during his trip through arb with 4.0+ years of service time and made $6.0 million his next time through arb after hitting .289/.345/.443 through arb with 149 games played. Wilmer Flores is making $3.4 million after passing through arb with 4.0+ years of service time, hit .267/.319/.417 in 129 games this year. For his next trip, we'll be conservative and guess that he could expect to make $5.5 million, which is too much for a platoon-worthy first baseman, especially at a position where the Mets have multiple top or former top prospects and Jay Bruce. We're at $92.5 million, that drops to $90.5.
We'll also non-tender Travis d'Arnaud. There's nothing to be gained by giving him a contract this season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and he's a free agent in the year following. D'Arnaud was making $3.5 million, and historically, players have made about the same as they did in years that they missed completely, so we'll assume that d'Arnaud would not have received a raise if he went through arbitration. We're now down to $88.0 million.
Rafael Montero is also due for a trip through arbitration. He was making just ~$500k, but given the fact that the Mets' are probably better off pitching Corey Oswalt instead of Montero for the foreseeable future and he's still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, the Mets will likely not miss Montero, who has a career 5.38 ERA. We're now at $87.5M.
That seems absurdly low. The Mets are freeing up ~$63 this year after giving multiple year contracts to free agents this offseason? Technically, yes. But there's an awful big "but" here (heh heh, big butts) - arbitration for players. Even after non-tendering d'Arnaud, Flores, and Montero, the Mets still have to give out contracts to some of their best players:
I estimated the arbitration raises based on players with similar histories, at similar positions, coming off of similar seasons, and listed them here.
Name 2019 Contracts (Millions USD) Arb Comparison
Yoenis Cespedes 29
Jay Bruce 14
Juan Lagares 9
Todd Frazier 9
Jason Vargas 8
Anthony Swarzak 8.5
Jacob deGrom 12.4 Jake Arrieta, 2015
Noah Syndergaard 6.5 Stephen Strasburg, 2014
Zack Wheeler 5.4 Carlos Carrasco 2016
Michael Conforto 3.4 Kole Calhoun, 2015
Steven Matz 2.7 Drew Smyly, 2014
Seth Lugo 0.6
Robert Gsellman 0.6
Kevin Plawecki 1.5 Christian Vazquez, 2017
T.J. Rivera 0.6
Brandon Nimmo 0.6
Phillip Evans 0.6
Paul Sewald 0.6
Amed Rosario 0.6
Jacob Rhame 0.6
Jenrry Mejia (Who Fucking Knows?)
Total ~114
Mets opening day payroll was $150 million last season. Let's assume daddy Jeff will be generous and not slash out payroll after a losing season (again) and $150 million is our hard cap. We'll also assume that the Mets will not be reinvesting any money from insurance from Yoenis Cespedes' contract into the team payroll (the Mets did not reinvest Wright's insurance money as well, and given that there is a larger probability of Cespedes returning for significant time this season than there was for Wright last season, they will likely be hesitant to do so as well).
We'll also assume that the Mets will not trade for any players. Is that a realistic assumption? No. But it's tricky to predict what players are truly available and what prospects the Mets would be willing to move. As a fan, I have no idea what is realistic and what is not with regards to how teams feel about holding onto players under contracts, and it's essentially useless to speculate.
Thus, we will improve the team only either A) from within, or B) from the 2018-2019 class of free agents. The same caveat with trading holds true with regards to free agents - maybe someone won't want to sign with the Mets because they don't like the public school system - but in general, we can assume that if the Mets throw a comparably large contract at a player, they will come to the Mets. In an effort to maintain an air of realism, in discussing free agent contracts, I will list previous free agent contracts by similar free agents and adjust for inflation as necessary.
Alright, we have $36 million to play around with, let's get playing!

2. Building the roster from within

The natural next step is to establish what positions need to be filled. It might behoove the Mets to go out and grab Bryce Harper this offseason, but at the same time, the Mets already have Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jay Bruce, Yoenis Cespedes, Juan Lagares, and Dominic Smith as outfielders that they have discussed as possibilities in 2019 (Cespedes obviously on the fringes). Hence, it makes little sense to improve on an outfield that already has shown itself capable of a fairly high level of production when there are other positions solely lacking on the team.
In order to estimate the Mets' 2019 team talent level, I will use the Marcel WAR projections as a rough guide for WAR (Wins Above Replacement) estimations. WAR calculates how many wins individual players' performance provides over that of a replacement level player - essentially, if you put together a team of replacement level players, you would expect them to win 48-ish games, and if you replaced one player on that team with Mike Trout, who is usually worth 10 WAR, you'd expect them to win about 57-ish games (usually). WAR correlates quite well to team wins - about 75% correlation, so we'll try to make as good a team for ourselves as possible by acquiring WAR via free agency and by looking at the team as is.
Marcel projections are quite conservative with estimating WAR, so please don't take what it says as gospel - there's usually some room for improvement from individual players. There are better methods of estimating WAR moving forward, but they take substantially more time to compile an estimate. Marcel WAR projections are nice because they are harshly realistic - they are more a worst-case-scenario than best-case scenario, but they are more realistic than the worst-case scenario. For example, the odds of Jacob deGrom following up one 8 WAR season with another are incredibly slim. The odds of deGrom following up one 8 WAR season with a 5 WAR season are actually quite good. You will undoubtedly complain about the figures presented here, in terms of rate production, play time, or some combination of the two - just know that the figures are created algorithmically, based in real baseball data, and intentionally conservative.
Note that for the purposes of this exercise, we will be using FanGraphs WAR or (fWAR). If you see "WAR", it is referring to projected WAR by Marcel, derived from fWAR. If you see "fWAR", it is referring to historical WAR stats from FanGraphs.
I will also assume that Yoenis Cespedes is out for the entire season. The Mets have indicated that they will prepare as though that is the case, and so I will prepare that way as well. If Cespedes does come back, anything we get from him is simply gravy.
Initial Rolling Wins Count: 48.1

Starting Rotation

  1. Jacob deGrom (5.4 WAR)
  2. Noah Syndergaard (2.9 WAR)
  3. Zack Wheeler (2.5 WAR)
  4. Seth Lugo (1.2 WAR)
  5. Steven Matz (0.9 WAR)
  6. Jason Vargas (0.0 WAR)
  7. Corey Oswalt (0.0 WAR)
Total: 12.9 WAR
The first three spots in the Mets' starting rotation are obvious: there is not a single reason not to roll with deGrom, Syndergaard, and Wheeler next season. They are proven aces. Both Wheeler and Syndergaard have rather conservative projections, though I think deGrom's projection seems pretty spot-on.
The back end of the rotation is designed to eat up as many innings possible, and value that they provide is basically gravy - Vargas, Oswalt, and Lugo did their jobs eating up innings in the second half, and I don't think it's out of the ordinary to expect them to provide that same value down the stretch. Even though Lugo was a reliever for most of the season, the Mets indicated that Lugo will enter the offseason and train as a starter: as one of the Mets' best options for starter, I would expect him to shove Vargas/Oswalt to spot-starting/relief duty.
The projection for Lugo is underestimated a bit in my opinion, but Matz, Vargas, and Oswalt's seem fine. Mets starters recorded 16.6 fWAR this season, so with some generous estimates, we are already within the margin of error for last season's production. There is certainly room for improvement with regards to individual seasons, and the Mets might be able to scrape and addition 3-4 more wins out of Wheeler, Syndergaard, and Lugo.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 61.0

Bullpen

Total: 2.7 WAR
The bullpen was the Mets' undoing during the season - only the Marlins and Royals recorded worse ERAs from their bullpens. This wasn't helped by losing Jeurys Familia to a trade midseason - Familia, undoubtedly the single best reliever produced by the Mets in the past decade, was one of the biggest assets of the pen and in his absence, it suffered.
It's natural that there are quite conservative projections for all of the Mets' young relievers: WAR underrates relievers by virtue of them throwing so few innings during the season and largely ignores their context-dependent value (i.e. coming into high leverage situations and recording outs). Still, that Gsellman, projected for less than 1 WAR, is the Mets' best reliever, is an indictment that there is still some work to do here.
In addition to Swarzak/Gsellman, who will almost assuredly be in the bullpen in 2019, I have listed a number of Mets relievers who are particularly promising who spent time with the MLB club this season. Wahl had ridiculous K/9 numbers in the minor leagues this season, Rhame has shown flashes of brilliance with his fastball, etc. I do not expect this to be the concrete, solid bullpen, and any of these players can make or break their cases during spring training or during the early going in the season - as I expect to bring in free agent talent to reinforce the bullpen, I would assume that fringe-y relievers like them would be forced off the roster. Still, most of the projections assume replacement level production for these relievers, which is not a bad estimate for how the Mets' bullpen currently looks.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 63.7

First Base

  1. Dominic Smith (0.3 WAR)
  2. Peter Alonso (0.6 WAR)
  3. Jay Bruce (0.5 WAR)
Total: 1.4 WAR
I might get some flack here for putting Smith atop the first base depth chart here as opposed to the prodigal son, Peter Alonso. Smith has struggled this season and last season, it's true! But Smith has also demonstrated considerably above average exit velocity, and with an increased fly ball rate, Smith hit .275/.306/.536 in the second half, albeit in just 72 plate appearances. Still, Smith demonstrated considerable improvement despite being unceremoniously shoved out of play time at first base. While I don't expect Smith to continue his torrid pace into next season, he has demonstrated that he can hit big league pitching, and he's tangibly adjusted and improved from 2017.
But Peter Alonso has arguably as great a claim to 1B as Smith - leading the minors in home runs and raking at every level screams that he's ready for a call-up. Still, the Mets don't feel as though he's ready defensively (as bullshit as that claim might be w.r.t. service time manipulation). Should Smith struggle again early in 2019, or should an outfielder go down to injury and Smith moves to the outfield, I fully expect Alonso to come up and rake, to the tune of minimum 2 WA600 PA. But if Smith goes down, I expect the Mets to first try to give Bruce the majority of plate appearances here initially and move Lagares into a full-time role in the outfield.
But we don't know if or when any of that happens. For right now, first base is in quite a degree of flux, and it has to be played by ear.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 65.1

Second Base

  1. Jeff McNeil (1.5 WAR)
  2. Luis Guillorme (0.4 WAR)
Total: 1.9 WAR
McNeil was nothing short of a revelation at second base this year - 2.6 fWAR in 248 PA works out to a 6.3 fWA600 pace, fringe MVP level. I can't say that I'm bullish on such a torrid pace of production continuing, but at the very least, McNeil's floor looks like .270/.330/.400 with good defense at second, essentially pre-breakout Daniel Murphy with a better glove. That alone is worth about 2-3 WAR, so again, there is room for improvement with the Marcel projection.
I expect Luis Guillorme to be the Mets' primary utility infielder this season. Guillorme can play stellar defense at 3B, SS, and 2B, and he can hit better than Jose Reyes (and, more importantly, and arguably a greater feat, well enough to be a utility infieldepinch hittepinch runner). I don't know how Guillorme's bat will develop, but if he turns out to simply be a scrappy singles hitter, I have no qualms about using him as a defensive sub or backup infielder.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 67.0

Shortstop

  1. Amed Rosario (1.5 WAR)
  2. Luis Guillorme (0.4 WAR)*
Total: 1.5 WAR
Amed finally started showing signs of his star potential in 2018 - despite a weak first half, Amed hit .284/.318/.413 in the last two months of the season (239 PA) and stole 15 bases while his strikeout rate dropped dramatically from 2017. Rosario doesn't need to be Francisco Lindor with the bat, he just needs to be an average bat with plus defense and speed to be a truly valuable player to the Mets, ala pre-breakout Andrelton Simmons. I expect Rosario to beat his projection by about 1-2 WAR based on his second-half improvements.
*Note that the WAR projections are for the full season across all positions - they are not double counted. If a player shows up elsewhere on the depth chart, their WAR has already been counted.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 68.5

Third Base

  1. Todd Frazier (1.4 WAR)
  2. Luis Guillorme (0.4 WAR)*
Todd Frazier took a big step backward this year. After his slugging and average slipped in 2016, Frazier compensated by walking at an increased rate, posting the 6th highest BB% in the MLB in 2017 and the highest OBP of his career. Unfortunately for Frazier, his walk rate dropped back to his career average and his power slipped even further, as Frazier (who missed significant time to injury) posted the worst wRC+ of his career. Still, Frazier profiles well as a defender at the hot corner: Frazier is 5th among qualified 3B since 2013 in UZR and 6th in DRS. Frazier's concerns at the plate will continue into next season, but at the very least, Frazier's glove is reliable.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 69.9

Catcher

We've already beaten the Mets' 2017 win total and we're not even out of the infield! The team is promising so far.
  1. Kevin Plawecki (0.7 WAR)
  2. Tomas Nido (0.3 WAR)
Kevin Plawecki got a surprising amount of plate appearances in 2018, thanks to injuries to Devin Mesoraco and Travis d'Arnaud. He tried to make the most of his limited time at the plate, posting a .210/.315/.370 slash with a 93 wRC+ in 277 PA - slightly better than the average catcher in 2018 (.232/.304/.372, 82 wRC+). But Plawecki's profile belies some weaknesses - Plawecki hit ground balls at a 47% rate and pulled 62% of those ground balls - many of them right to the third baseman or shortstops. Plawecki runs about an average BABIP on pulled ground balls (which is generally around .200 for right-handed hitters) and fails to produce a lot of power. I don't buy into Plawecki's 2018 very much.
Meanwhile, Tomas Nido took major steps backward from his AA batting title in 2017 - despite moving to hitter-friendly Las Vegas, Nido slashed just .235/.316/.353 and fared even worse in the majors. Still, Nido might yet be the better catching option than Plawecki - Nido received credit for 2.5 Framing Runs Above Average Adjusted (fRAA Adj) in just 1.3k framing chances. Extrapolated out to 5k chances, that puts Nido at around 9.0 fRAA Adj, one of the best figures in the majors. Plawecki finished with just -0.6 in 4k chances.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 70.9

Right Field

  1. Jay Bruce (0.5 WAR)*
  2. Juan Lagares (0.7 WAR)
I would prefer to give Bruce the bulk of playing time entering the season in right field. Yes, Bruce has the range of Stephen Hawking, and yes, he has the arm of Olivia Wright. But at the very least, Bruce found his power stroke against fastballs this season and wrecked shop down the stretch, to the tune of .243/.344/.467 in the second half. Bruce still has some swing mechanic kinks to work out, kinks that were exposed in the second half, but at the very least he's not a bad option for right field.
Meanwhile, Juan Lagares seems healthy again after tearing a ligament in his toe. As good as Lagares looked in last year's spring training, and as good as his consistent defense has been, the Mets would be best served by using Lagares as their fourth outfielder and a late-game defensive replacement: Lagares has neither hit nor run well enough for his career (.260/.300/.367, 40 SB - 16 CS) for me to say that he's worthy of and deserving a starting spot - nevermind how frequently Lagares has been injured in his career. Putting Lagares as a fourth outfielder gives the Mets a decent pinch-hitting bat, a good pinch-runner, and a stellar defender for late-game. If the Mets have the lead in the 7th/8th, Lagares can pinch-hit, then move to centerfield as Brandon Nimmo moves to right field and Jay Bruce comes out of the game.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 71.6

Center Field

  1. Brandon Nimmo (2.9 WAR)
  2. Juan Lagares (0.7 WAR)*
Brandon Nimmo. What can I say about Brandon Nimmo? Sandy Alderson joked that the Mets didn't want to trade for Giancarlo Stanton because they already had Nimmo, and Nimmo rewarded that confidence by outhitting Stanton, .263/.404/.483 with a 149 wRC+ to .266/.343/.509 with a 127 wRC+. Nimmo has elite plate discipline, knows how to get plunked, and displayed prodigious power and speed. 2016 Christian Yelich is an excellent comp for Nimmo, and it's a very favorable one. Nimmo's speed should make him an adequate if unspectacular center fielder, but even if he struggles in the field, he'll make up for it at the plate. Even though I expect Nimmo's power to drop a bit next season from regression, I think he's an integral part of the Mets' lineup and its future.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 74.5

Left Field

  1. Michael Conforto (3.0 WAR)
  2. Juan Lagares (0.7 WAR)*
  3. Dominic Smith (0.3 WAR)*
I was understandably bullish on Conforto going into the 2018 season - he had just capped off one of the best seasons by a Mets hitter ever, albeit one abbreviated by injury. That injury appeared to carry into the season, as Conforto hit just .216/.344/.366 - which was still promising, as while the power wasn't there, the walks certainly were. In the second half, however, Conforto looked like himself again: .273/.356/.539 with a 143 wRC+. Conforto brings to the mix a combination of elite discipline and 75-grade game power. There is no better hitter on the Mets, and there probably has not been a better hitter on the Mets since the heyday of David Wright and Carlos Beltran (Beltran's 2007 season: .276/.353/.525). Conforto's projection is hampered by injury, but make no mistake: if Conforto is healthy, 40 HR is not out of the question, and he'll blow past the 3 WAR projection with ease.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 77.5

Final 25 Man Roster:

Player Count Player Positions Projected WAR
1 Jacob deGrom SP 5.4
2 Michael Conforto CF/LF 3.0
3 Noah Syndergaard SP 2.9
4 Brandon Nimmo CF/RF 2.9
5 Zack Wheeler SP 2.5
6 Jeff McNeil 2B 1.5
7 Amed Rosario SS 1.5
8 Todd Frazier 3B 1.4
9 Seth Lugo SP 1.2
10 Steven Matz SP/RP 0.9
11 Robert Gsellman SP/RP 0.8
12 Kevin Plawecki C 0.7
13 Juan Lagares RF/CF/LF 0.7
* Peter Alonso 1B 0.6
14 Daniel Zamora RP 0.5
15 Jay Bruce 1B/RF 0.5
16 Tyler Bashlor RP 0.4
17 Jacob Rhame RP 0.4
18 Luis Guillorme 2B/SS/3B 0.4
19 Paul Sewald RP 0.3
20 Bobby Wahl RP 0.3
21 Dominic Smith 1B/LF 0.3
22 Tomas Nido C 0.3
23 Jason Vargas SP/RP 0.0
24 Corey Oswalt SP/RP 0.0
25 Anthony Swarzak RP 0.0
Total 29.7
Let's immediately allay some of those fears about the low projections by comparing the projected 2019 Mets to the 2018 Mets - with essentially the same team, some regression, and some improvement all mixed in, this team comes out with just one win more than the 2018 Mets. This helps verify our WAR estimates - if the same team played two back-to-back seasons, as long as there's a mix of young players and old players, you would expect them to perform roughly the same. Obviously, there's room for improvement, some breakout potential, etc., but you can't go into a season expecting to contend by relying on breakout potential. Most of the time, it doesn't happen, and you're left underprepared.
Now that we know what the starting point of our roster looks like, we can begin to make some improvements.

3. Free Agency Acquisitions

The Mets' current payroll with the above roster is about $114.8 million, and our hard cap is about $150 million - which leaves the Mets with $36 million of breathing room to improve the team as much as possible. Playing around in free agency, let's see how much we can accomplish.
For the purposes of this exercise, I will provide a most-similar comparison (as I did in arbitration projections) for the contracts that I would expect to sign the following players. These contracts might not be indicative of the real contracts players sign, as there are other factors, such as demand from other teams (i.e. Mark Teixeira in 2008) or discounts to play close to home and other market factors (Todd Frazier in 2017). But free agent contracts tend to follow the $/WAR framework quite well, so these contracts will largely be based around the framework and a most similar free agent deal.
Initial Rolling Payroll Count: 114 million

C Yasmani Grandal (2.6 WAR) - $60 million/4 years

(Most similar contract - Brian McCann, $85 million/5 in 2014)

Yasmani Grandal has quietly been one of the most valuable catchers in the league, if not the most valuable. Since 2014, Grandal has played in the 5th most games, posted the 3rd best wRC+, and recorded the 4th best WAR in that time span. But of similar important is Grandal's framing: according to Baseball Prospectus, Grandal has accumulated 108.4 fRAA Adj. since 2014, never finishing any lower than 4th in the MLB in any season since 2015. fWAR, the flavor of WAR we are using to measure players, does not incorporate framing runs, but by BP's measure, Grandal has been worth ~1.5-3.0 extra for almost every full season that he's played.
Every part of Grandal - his durability, his defense, and his bat - represent a substantial upgrade over Plawecki. In terms of net overall value, by most public metrics, Grandal is squarely one of the best free agents on the market. I expect there to be numerous suitors for Grandals' services, especially as the Red Sox might look to upgrade over their current catching platoon of Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon, which was assuredly their biggest weakness in 2018.
Thus, I expect to give Grandal a $60 million contract for 4 years, a competitive deal above what $/WAR for position players has been historically (about $6 million/WAR using Marcel projections, by my measures). Grandals' contract and production break down as follows:
Year Age Projected WAR Contract (Millions USD)
2019 30 2.6 *$10 *
2020 31 2.1 *$15 *
2021 32 1.7 *$15 *
2022 33 1.1 *$20 *
Again, WAR is underrating Grandal's true value with regards to his framing ability, as fWAR does not incorporate framing runs.
As a result of signing Grandal, I would expect Grandal to be the Mets' primary catcher, with Plawecki dropped to back-up. This allows Nido to go down to AAA and work on his hitting in a slightly-less-insane environment, and possibly develop into a trade asset.
Thus, Nido's 0.3 WAR drops off of our roster, and is replaced by Grandal's 2.6, and Nido's $0.6 million salary is replaced by Grandal's $10 million.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 80.1
Rolling Payroll Count: $124.6 million

RP David Robertson (0.9 WAR) - $45 million/3 years

(Most similar contract - Wade Davis, $52 million/3 years in 2017)

David Robertson is everything that a closer should be: reliable (in terms of shut downs - increasing your teams' odds of winning by 6%+ in an outing - versus meltdowns - decreasing your teams' odds of winning by the same amount - Robertson has a 3.5:1 ratio, better than Jeurys Familia), durable (Robertson has thrown 60+ innings in relief in nine consecutive seasons), and has brilliant strikeout numbers (11.97 K/9).
The problem? Robertson has rarely been a closer in his career, because he's played for the Yankees for most of his career - whether it's living in the shadow of Mariano Rivera or Aroldis Chapman, Robertson has quietly and consistently been a superb reliever. If the Mets want to improve at the top of their bullpen, Robertson's quiet excellence represents a substantial improvement.
Robertson's career and continued excellence resembles the career of Wade Davis', who signed the largest FA contract for a reliever last season in a year where big contracts went flying. Giving that relievers have been overpaid relative to recent years in both 2016 and 2017, we should expect the same trend to continue in the 2018 offseason. Robertson's contract and production breaks down as follows:
Year Age Projected WAR Contract (Millions USD)
2019 34 0.8 *$15 *
2020 35 0.1 *$15 *
2021 36 0.0 *$15 *
Our projected WAR paints a harsh picture of Robertson's projected future performance, but relief pitchers tend to age quite well. Given that Robertson has been consistently healthy and effectively, we might expect Robertson to outperform those projections. Furthermore, good relief pitching allows teams to outperform their run differential and WAR totals, as they win close games more often.
As a result of signing Robertson, I would expect Robertson to be the Mets' main closer, and move Bobby Wahl down off the roster. Thus, Wahl's 0.3 WAR this season is replaced by Robertson's 0.8, and Wahl's $0.6 million salary is replaced by Robertson's $15 million.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 80.6
Rolling Payroll Count: $139.6 million

RP Adam Ottavino (0.7 WAR) - $12 million/2 years

(Most similar contract - Anthony Swarzak, $14 million/2 years in 2017)

Adam Ottavino has been a superb success story for the Rockies this season. Ottavino redeveloped himself and dramatically and tangibly improved his strikeout and walk rates practicing in a Mannhattan storefront in the 2017 offseason. Since Ottavino is a New York City native and currently lives there in the offseason, it makes sense that the Mets would target one of the breakout free agents of the 2018 season with some ties to NYC.
Ottavino's superb 2018 season showcased improved control and reduced walk rates, and his FIP dropped dramatically. A 2.43 ERA at Coors Field is also nothing to sneeze at. Like Anthony Swarzak, who had a late breakout in his free agent season, it makes sense that the Mets could target a veteran reliever who has made some tangible improvements (and I know that y'all don't exactly have the highest opinion of Swarzak right now, but bear with me!). Here is how Ottavino's projected production and contract breaks down.
Year Age Projected WAR Contract (Millions USD)
2019 33 0.7 *$5 *
2020 24 0.0 *$7 *
Again, these are quite conservative projections because the Marcel WAR projection system tends to be agressive in regressing breakout season regardless of peripherals. Ottavino will be a capable setup man and back-up closer for the Mets.
As a result of the Mets' signing of Ottavino, I would expect Jacob Rhame to fall off the roster. Rhame's 0.4 WAR and $0.6 million would be replaced by Ottavino's 0.7 WAR and $5 million.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 80.9
Rolling Payroll Count: $144.6 million

RP Oliver Perez (0.0 WAR) - $3 million/1 year

(Most similar contract - Joe Blanton, $4 million/1 year in 2016)

Old friend alert! Oliver Perez has bounced around from team-to-team after leaving the Mets, eventually hanging in the league as a serviceable LOOGY for the Nationals and Diamondbacks. But this season, Perez has been superb against both lefties and righties, allowing a .213 wOBA against lefties and .138 against righties.
Perez will be 38 next season, and breakout performances at such ages generally don't continue - hence, Marcel is very harsh on Perez's projected performance. But at the very least, Perez's peripherals have improved dramatically - Perez has just a 1.74 FIP this season, one of the best figures in the MLB. Even if Perez's home run rate comes back down to earth, he still looks like he could be a servicable LOOGY or middle-reliever.
As a result of the Mets signing Perez, I would expect Tyler Bashlor to fall off the roster. Bashlor's 0.4 WAR and $0.6 million would be replaced by Perez's 0.0 WAR and $3 million.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 80.5
Rolling Payroll Count: $147.6 million

RP Brad Brach (0.4 WAR) - $5 million/1 year

(Most similar contract - Boone Logan, $5.5 million/1 year)

Brad Brach has always played second fiddle to Zack Britton on the Orioles for most of his career, but Brach has had a solid career: 3.08 ERA, 3.68 FIP across 456.0 IP. Brach's peripherals took a bit of a hit this year, and he doesn't look like he'll quite recapture his 2016 form where he threw 79 innings with a 2.05 ERA, he still profiles as a solid, veteran reliever who might come cheap.
As a result of the Mets signing Brach, I would expect Corey Oswalt to fall off the roster. Oswalt's 0.0 WAR and $0.6 million would be replaced by Brach's 0.4 WAR and $5 million.
Rolling Projected Wins Count: 80.9
Rolling Projected Payroll Count: 152.6 million

4. Conclusion And Notes

Here is our final roster and payroll after signing our free agents. New acquisitions are in bold.
Player Count Player Positions Projected WAR Cost
1 Jacob deGrom SP 5.4 *$12.4 *
2 Michael Conforto CF/LF 3 *$3.4 *
3 Noah Syndergaard SP 2.9 *$6.5 *
4 Brandon Nimmo CF/RF 2.9 *$0.6 *
5 Yasmani Grandal C 2.6 *$10.0 *
6 Zack Wheeler SP 2.5 *$5.4 *
7 Jeff McNeil 2B 1.5 *$0.6 *
8 Amed Rosario SS 1.5 *$0.6 *
9 Todd Frazier 3B 1.4 *$9.0 *
10 Seth Lugo SP 1.2 *$0.6 *
11 Steven Matz SP/RP 0.9 *$2.7 *
12 David Robertson RP 0.9 *$15.0 *
13 Robert Gsellman SP/RP 0.8 *$0.6 *
14 Kevin Plawecki C 0.7 *$1.5 *
15 Juan Lagares RF/CF/LF 0.7 *$9.0 *
16 Adam Ottavino RP 0.7 *$5.0 *
* Peter Alonso 1B 0.6
17 Daniel Zamora RP 0.5 *$0.6 *
18 Jay Bruce 1B/RF 0.5 *$14.0 *
19 Luis Guillorme 2B/SS/3B 0.4 *$0.6 *
20 Brad Brach RP 0.4 *$5.0 *
21 Paul Sewald RP 0.3 *$0.6 *
22 Dominic Smith 1B/LF 0.3 *$0.6 *
23 Oliver Perez RP 0 *$3.0 *
24 Jason Vargas SP/RP 0 *$8.0 *
25 Anthony Swarzak RP 0 *$8.5 *
* Yoenis Cespedes LF 0 *$29.0 *
32.6 *$152.8 *
On the surface, it appears as though the Mets have improved by about 3 wins to be simply an 81-81 team. However, note that many of the moves that we have made are underrated by WAR:
Based on our WAR estimates, Grandal's framing numbers, and squinting really hard, I would expect the above roster to win a minimum of ~82 games, an average of ~85 games, and a max of ~90 games. If the Mets wish to make any midseason acquisitions to improve their playoff odds, that flexibility exists as well.
Again, this team would have to rely quite a bit on their young stars breaking out (or, in McNeil's case - continue that breakout) if they wished to contend for the division or even the wildcard. Still, this is a competitive team, and most of its biggest needs have been addressed while payroll has remained largely constant.

5. But one more thing...

Still, a hard payroll cap of $150 million is quite limiting. Yes, the Athletics made the playoffs with an opening day payroll of just $60 million - with Khris Davis the only player making double digits on their roster, and all of their really good players (Chapman, Olson, Manaea, Treinen, Trivino) in pre-arb or early arb. The Dodgers, Cubs, and Nationals all operated this season with a $180+ million payroll successfully. Good talent does not come cheap, and sometimes teams must up their payroll to keep their core together and compete.
That is especially true this offseason, when the Mets have a chance to improve on their production at a place that has been the cornerstone of their franchise for the past decade. He will not come cheap, but as a generational talent, it would behove the Mets to go above and beyond their limited payroll to upgrade here. Who am I talking about? That's right, I'm talking about...

3B Josh Donaldson (2.2 WAR) - $80 million/3 years

(Most similar contract - ???)

(You totally thought I was going to talk about Manny Machado, didn't you!)
Let's keep playing the "Mets are cheapskates" game. Let's ignore Machado. Machado is also a generational talent who is hitting the market at age 26, and he'll easily make $200+ million. The Mets might feel allergic to such large deals, especially after Wright and Cespedes' contracts blew up in their faces (they shouldn't be, and Machado will be worth every penny, but I'm being realistic here).
Donaldson is also a generational talent. From 2013 to 2017, here are the MLB fWAR leaders.
  1. Mike Trout - 44.2 fWAR
  2. Josh Donaldson - 34.3 fWAR
  3. Paul Goldschmidt - 27.7 fWAR
  4. Andrew McCutchen - 26.2 fWAR
  5. Joey Votto - 25.5 fWAR
It's very easy to forget that in the shadow of Trout, himself on the path to becoming the greatest player of all-time, Donaldson himself was still very much apart from the rest of the league.
And then 2018 happened. Donaldson played much of the first half while injured, and his performance suffered. His exit velocity dropped. He missed several months. He got traded! 2018 essentially shot his WAR projection to hell.
But that's precisely why the Mets should target Donaldson. For starters, while his rate stats suffered in 2018, he was playing while injured, and his average exit velocity (89.7 MPH in the first half) rebounded when he was healthy in the second half (91.3 MPH). Donaldson looked really healthy and productive with the Indians!
Donaldson missed significant time with injury in both 2017 and 2018, and that, coupled with his age, is driving his value down. That makes him a perfect buy for the Mets: Donaldson can carry a team as an MVP quality talent when he's healthy and man the hot-corner well. In the event that he's not healthy, Todd Frazier is more than capable of starting, and Frazier could move into a utility role when Donaldson is on the roster.
If healthy, Donaldson could easily put up 4-5 WAR in 2018. He's a right handed bat that helps balance out the lefty-heavy lineup. He represents a substantial upgrade. And, most importantly for the value-hungry Mets - Donaldson will be much cheaper than Machado (nevermind the fact that Donaldson has no stated public preference to playing shortstop instead).
I actually have no idea what a Donaldson contract might look like: I can't think of a player of Donaldson's caliber entering a contract season after such a lost season thanks to injury, so estimating Donaldson's contract is difficult, and I won't claim to have done it remotely accurately. But at the very least, Donaldson will cost less than Machado, require less of a long term comitment - and require the Mets to expand their payroll. That's the point of asking the Mets to sign Donaldson on top of all this: Donaldson is a keystone acquisition that takes the Mets from the fringes of the playoff scene in 2019 to squarely in the middle. Donaldson, with the above roster changes, puts the Mets squarely in the picture for playing for the division, and their payroll would be somewhere along the lines of $170-$180 ish million, about what the Nationals, Cubs, and Dodgers were projected to spend in 2018 on opening day. The reality is that the Mets cannot complement and keep their existing core while refusing to expand payroll to reach contention - they expand if they're serious.
If the Mets want to make enough of an effort where they can luck into a divisional title or wild card slot again, as they did in 2015 and 2016, then they don't have to break the bank. But the Mets have a talented young core. They have one of the best pitchers in the national league. They have some of the best hitters in the national league. They have multiple pre-arb players who, in the 2018 second half, demonstrated that they can be valuable contributers. There is no reason not to spend on this team if you want to bring a title home. The Mets do not have multiple pre-arb rookies like the Athletics or Yankees, they must spend like the Dodgers or Cubs if they want to succeed.
So Omar, if you're reading this: C'mon. Make it happen. ;)
submitted by Metlover to NewYorkMets [link] [comments]

[OC] Lost Leagues: History of the Professional Spring Football League (1992)

Competing football leagues in the offseason is all the rage right now. The Alliance of American Football started up this year, and promptly ended this year without even finishing its first season. And, the XFL is starting up again in 2020 (it’s almost impossible for the league to be as big of a failure as it was in 2001, when it flamed out in a blaze of glory).
Here’s the thing with other football leagues- I love getting my football fix at all times of the year. I was glued to my TV during AAF season, and watched practically every Orlando Apollos game. And when then XFL starts again in 2020, you can bet that I’ll be watching with a keen eye. There’s big names attached to the XFL, there’s financial backing, there’s a TV contract that is nothing short of impressive (half the games on network TV), and the rule changes look interesting.
But here’s the thing with other football leagues- 99 percent of them don’t work. In terms of outdoor professional football leagues in the United States, the only two outside of the NFL that worked were the AFL and the AAFC; they don’t exist anymore because they combined with the NFL. It’s extremely hard to get a pro football league up and running and give it any kind of success. There’s tons of leagues that have fallen by the wayside.
Case in point- the Professional Spring Football League.
Now seems like as good of a time as ever to revive the Lost Leagues series, where I take a look at failed professional football leagues. Some leagues, such as the United Football League post that kicked off the series two years ago, you may recognize. Others, like this one, you’ve probably never heard of. In fact, this league made such little of an impact that if you do a Google search for “Professional Spring Football League”, every link on the first page of results has absolutely nothing to do with the PSFL that I’m talking about.
With all of that said, let’s take a look at the incredibly short-lived existence of the Professional Spring Football League.
Part I: A Puzzling Formation
The league announced its existence on October 1, 1991, less than a year before the league was set to play in 1992. Already, you might be able to spot a major problem with this. There was already a pro football league in the spring in 1991, and that was the World League of American Football. That league had a lot of things that the PSFL would not wind up getting. For starters, it had the backing of the NFL. The league owners wanted to create a developmental football league in the spring that would also give the sport popularity overseas. The WLAF also had a television contract; not only were games shown on ABC and USA Network, but those networks actually paid the WLAF for the TV rights.
There were so many failed spring football leagues, and now, the PSFL was going to directly compete against a spring football league that actually had the backing of the NFL. Let’s put that in perspective. Professional hockey in Atlanta has not worked. The Atlanta Flames moved to Calgary in part because of low attendance, and the Atlanta Thrashers moved to Winnipeg in part because of low attendance. Imagine if the NHL decided, for whatever reason, to go back to Atlanta. Now imagine that after this announcement is made, a competing hockey league (and I use competing very loosely) announces that they’re going to be putting a team in Atlanta, and the season is going to run at the same time as the NHL. Why would that make any sense for the competing hockey league to do? Already, the league was behind.
But let’s take a look at that other pro league that was playing in the spring, and is still somewhat remembered to this day. The WLAF, in its inaugural season, averaged 25,361 fans per game. On its surface, that’s really good. However, if you take out the three European teams (London Monarchs, Frankfurt Galaxy, Barcelona Dragons) and the one Canadian team (Montreal Machine), you’re left with six American teams. Here’s the average attendance of those American teams:
Team Average Attendance
New York/New Jersey Knights 32,322
Birmingham Fire 25,442
Orlando Thunder 19,018
Sacramento Surge 17,994
San Antonio Riders 14,853
Raleigh-Durham Skyhawks 12,753
AVERAGE 20,397
Why do I bring this up? Let’s be very clear- an average attendance of 20,397 for a football league’s inaugural season is still extremely good… but only two of the six teams cleared 20,000. Remember that this was the league with the NFL’s backing and a relatively lucrative TV contract (it was in the eight figure range according to some reports). In the PSFL, a league with neither the league’s backing nor any TV contract to speak of, they needed each team to average 20,000 fans per game to stay afloat. Per the article:
[President] Vince Sette and the other league organizers figure each team will need to average just 20,000 fans per game to make this endeavor work. And they're not counting on television revenue to bail them out.
Each team needs to average just 20,000 fans per game? That’s all it’s going to take? A number that four out of six teams in the WLAF couldn’t reach? A number that, in the final season of the USFL, 8 out of the league’s 14 teams couldn’t reach? That seems like a fantastic business model that can’t possibly fail. You can probably already see some of the inevitable failures and red flags with this league just based off of the model.
But remember when I said that the PSFL did not have a TV contract? That doesn’t mean that they didn’t get some exposure on TV, in the form of an introduction video that aired on SportsChannel New York in 1991 (even though the league did not have any teams in New York). The video is… well, let’s just take a look at the video, because there’s a lot to dissect.
Part II: An Even More Puzzling Video
LINK TO THE VIDEO
I have no idea how I found this video, seeing as it has a grand total of 398 views on YouTube, two likes, and two comments. However, this is an absolute gold mine. This was a half-hour special aired on SportsChannel a few months prior to the launch of the league, and man, is it a weird video in all its early-90s cheese and glory. The first thing you’ll notice is that the commissioner of this league is Rex Lardner. About a quarter century later, he would try launching another pro football league in the spring. Considering the fact that the league has 195 likes on Facebook and the only video on the league’s website is literally five seconds long and is just a horribly-done Microsoft Word logo, I’m guessing that league is dead and that he learned nothing from the failures of this league.
After a shot of a logo that looks somewhat similar to the USFL logo, we get an introduction by a man who, literally less than one minute into the video, tries to stop skepticism of fans. In the first minute, they acknowledge that every other attempt has failed. That’s rather comforting. However, they explain why this league is different and won’t fail, and it’s because Vincent Sette (the founder and president of the league) said that he researched the other leagues. Checking in on what happened to Sette after the league’s demise, and it turns out that he’s doing great.
The founder of the league was also known Vincent Setteducate. There appear to have been no criminal charges filed in the aftermath of the PSFL. Five years later, he was charged by the SEC in a wire fraud case, and pleaded guilty, sentenced to five years probation and ordered to pay $300,000 in restitution in another business venture. He has had other brushes with the law as well.
And yes, according to this article, he goes by both names of Vincent Sette and Vincent Setteducate. Getting back to the video, after he promises that the league is going to work because he researched at the New York Public Library, you’ll also notice that Walt Michaels is the Director of Football Operations. I’ll give the league credit for that- Michaels is a recognizable name; in six seasons with the Jets and two seasons with the New Jersey Generals of the USFL, he’s made the playoffs four times, and only had a losing record twice. He even guided the Jets to the AFC Championship in the 1982 strike-shortened season. Unfortunately, that’s the only recognizable front office figure associated with this league. Not once in the video does it mention any coaches associated with the league. Considering the league was starting up in spring of 1992 (the first game seemed to be scheduled for February 29), and this TV special aired in late 1991, that seems like a major red flag. Again, just to reiterate- this league was announced on October 1, and the first game was to be played on February 29. People criticized the XFL the first time around for moving too quickly, but that was a year. This is less than five months. This is 151 days between announcement and the first game.
But how are the players in this league? Remember that the talent pool with any secondary football league is going to be somewhat worse; factor in the WLAF already existing in the spring, and the PSFL was playing third fiddle. They held three combines, with the one in the video taking place in Atlanta in October (less than a month after the creation of the league), and others taking place in December and January. Who were some of the players?
You know it’s a good sign when the first player that’s mentioned is Mickey Guidry. When the FIRST PLAYER YOU HIGHLIGHT is a man that threw 5 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in his four years at LSU from 1985-88 and a man who was so buried on the depth chart with the Sacramento Surge of the WLAF that he didn’t even throw a pass in 1991, that’s a horrible sign. Other quarterbacks in this league included Tony Rice (who threw 2 touchdowns and 9 interceptions in his final season at Notre Dame in 1989, completed 48.5% of his passes over his career, and was dreadful with the Barcelona Dragons in the WLAF in 1991 with one touchdown pass and three interceptions), Bobby McAllister (an atrocious QB in the WLAF in 1991 with Raleigh-Durham, throwing 7 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on 5.9 yards per attempt, a 46.7% completion percentage, and a passer rating of 54; Raleigh-Durham went winless), and Todd Hammel (a 12th round pick in 1990 who never played a snap, and then played in the WLAF with New York/New Jersey where he threw 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, had a passer rating of 53.7, completed just 45.5% of his passes, and averaged 5.8 yards per attempt). Remember- these were the guys they were highlighting, so this was their cream of the crop. Guys who were awful in the WLAF were, on paper, the best quarterbacks in this league.
As for the other offensive skill players, there were some recognizable names, even if they weren’t that good. Timmy Smith ran for a record-204 yards for Washington in Super Bowl XXII; he only had three regular season rushing touchdowns in his NFL career, and from 1989-91 (the three years before the PSFL’s scheduled inaugural season in 1992), had 6 rushing yards, but at least the name was recognizable. The second halfback mentioned is James Gray; while he was exceptional at Texas Tech, leading the Southwest Conference in 1989 with 1,509 rushing yards and 18 rushing touchdowns, he never played a down in the NFL after getting drafted by the Patriots in round five of the 1990 NFL Draft. Lydell Carr had a solid career with Oklahoma, but after getting drafted in the fourth round of the 1988 NFL Draft, did nothing in the NFL, never recording a single yard from scrimmage (in fairness, he did score eight touchdowns with the Barcelona Dragons in the 1991 season of the WLAF). And then, there was Lorenzo Hampton, who scored 28 touchdowns in his NFL career. Those were the four halfbacks highlighted; two of them never got a carry in the NFL. Quality-wise, that’s not good. Also, you may notice that half of this video is just the PSFL Combine and almost plays like a football instructional video; I’m not sure why this is.
Another major red flag with this video comes with the announcement of the teams. We’ll get to the teams later, but the map only shows nine cities, even though there’s supposed to be 10 teams in the league. That means that a new team would have to be announced and formed with roughly 70 days to go until the first game of the season. Good luck with that.
But how is this league going to be any different from the other leagues? After an interview with former BYU tight end Chris Smith that, no joke, starts off with the line, “I love children,” we find out how. For one, the players are going to do community service. There’s going to be autograph sessions. I’m failing to see how this is any different, but then we get two weird things. The first is that the games are going to be when the fans want. They’re scheduling for the fans. I have no idea what this even means. Does this mean that if the fans want them to play a game right now, that they’ll do it? The second is a cool idea but has no practicality whatsoever, and that is the universal ticket. Any fan who buys a season ticket to a PSFL team gets all of their team’s home games plus a universal ticket that can be used at any PSFL game. Good idea… but who’s flying halfway across the country to watch a PSFL game? Sette brings up the idea of staying at a hotel in Tampa for a PSFL game… who’s going to do that? It’s an interesting idea, but one that I’m sure nobody would actually use.
Some frequently asked questions about the league pop up next, and it’s always a good sign when one of the questions is whether or not a franchise can go under. The PSFL actually had a good idea with a single-entity structure; MLS has a similar system and it has worked well in ensuring the league’s survival. But here’s where it gets somewhat eyebrow-raising for me- each team has a salary cap of $2 million, and an average player salary of $45,000. Adjusting for inflation, today, the average player salary is around $82,000. That’s a pretty large amount for a minor football league. For some perspective, even the AAF’s average salary was less than that at $75,000 per season. And even though the AAF didn’t work, it had a TV contract and actual investors. This league was formed in the blink of an eye, had no TV revenue, had a business model that relied on a rather unattainable goal of 20,000 fans at every game, and yet, had a higher average salary per season when adjusted for inflation than the AAF.
After watching that video, it’s time to break down the actual markets chosen.
Part III: The Teams
The PSFL was pretty ambitious with their inaugural season, opting to have 10 teams play in the league. Four of the teams would be located in cities with NFL teams, with the other six teams being in unoccupied professional football markets. The New England Blitz seemed like an odd choice for a team. While the league stressed going into unoccupied markets, Boston already had a team in the NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL, so this completely defeats the purpose. Additionally, the Boston Breakers were in the USFL in 1983, and drew the smallest average attendance in the league at 12,735 fans per game. Why Boston was chosen for a team, I’m not sure. The other baffling location was the Washington Marauders at RFK Stadium; the Washington Federals of the USFL bombed horribly (second-to-last in attendance in 1983 and 1984, including an average of just 7,694 fans per game in 1984), and there was competition in the area with the Bullets of the NBA and the Capitals of the NHL.
However, every other city makes sense. I’ll give the PSFL credit- they seemed like they had a good idea of where to go with their teams. Going to Tampa Bay with the Tampa Bay Outlaws made complete sense- in the USFL, the Bandits consistently ranked near the top of the league in average attendance, proving that spring football in Tampa Bay could work (if it’s done correctly, the XFL team playing in Tampa Bay in 2020 could have a strong following, though it’ll be tougher now that the city has an NHL team and an MLB team). Miami didn’t have the Marlins yet or the Florida Panthers (although Sunrise is an hour away from Miami), so there was little competition in the area for a spring football team to thrive. The other six locations were teams without NFL teams. The Arkansas Miners played in Little Rock (no pro sports teams), the Carolina Cougars played in Columbia (no pro sports teams), the Nevada Aces played in Las Vegas (no pro sports teams), the New Mexico Rattlesnakes played in Albuquerque (no pro sports teams), the Oregon Lightning Bolts played in Portland (only the Trail Blazers as competition), and the Utah Pioneers played in Salt Lake City (no pro sports teams). Yes, travel costs were going to be high, but the market selection seemed promising with a bunch of mid-sized markets who were starving for pro sports.
The logos, though? My, are some of them bad.
A lot of these logos would’ve been outdated very quickly. I have no idea what the New England Blitz logo is trying to be. The Carolina Cougars logo looks like the logo from Monster Energy (though the Carolina logo predates the Monster logo). Nevada’s logo is just the Alcorn State logo with cards coming off of it. And then there’s the Utah Pioneers helmet, which is the exact same thing as the Cleveland Browns helmet minus a logo on it. Why the Miami Tribe were named what they were, I’m not sure, seeing as the actual Miami Tribe is based in Oklahoma.
They were already thinking about expansion. As mentioned in this article, they were looking at expanding to 12 teams in the near future, putting teams in Fresno and Austin; both were large cities with no pro sports team.
So, we’ve got our teams. We’ve got our video promoting the league (even though we don’t have a television contract). And, we’ve got a schedule culminating with the Red, White & Blue Bowl at RFK Stadium on July 5. How does the first season of the league go?
Part IV: Collapse & Conclusion
Already, cracks were starting to show in 1992. Businessman Nick Bunick bought the Portland team a month before the season started, and immediately wanted to change the name to the Oregon Chargers. I’m sure the NFL would’ve been thrilled by that. They just hired a coach a month before the season started by taking former NFL quarterback Craig Morton.
February rolled around, and it was less than a month before the start. And when February rolled around, I’ll let Squidward explain why the league was struggling.
In what can only be described as a shocked Pikachu face for a lot of these other leagues, they had no money. It was February 12, just 17 days before kickoff between the Tampa Bay Outlaws and Utah Pioneers, and the league was in serious trouble. The Miami Tribe folded. The commissioner, Rex Lardner, said that they were considering shutting down the league. The Washington Marauders, who were a late addition to the league to begin with, threatened to cease operations by the end of the week if the league didn’t provide adequate financial arrangements. Remember those plans that said that the league needed each team to average at least 20,000 fans per game to survive? Less than three weeks before the season, and Washington had sold 100 season tickets. One hundred. I’m shocked that the team that was announced hastily in a market with lots of competition already and in a market where the USFL failed miserably could barely sell 100 season tickets.
And, as it turns out, nobody got any money. Washington wide receivers coach Brian Gardner said he was owed $5,000, and never got it, stating that “I have as much chance of getting that as I do of catching the clouds in my hands right now.” The league lied when they said that it had $50 million in the bank; only a small percentage of that was actually in the bank. The schedule, set to start on February 29, was in danger of getting pushed back two weeks. And the Marauders were running an awful operation:
The Marauders operation is tight. All the equipment is in Room 131 of the team's headquarters here, a Quality Inn. The shoulder pads are piled atop two beds; face bars sit on a table. Other pads and several jerseys are in the bathroom.
[Cornerback] Barry Wilburn kept his football shoes on after the morning practice today. That was because the tape he'd bought and used to anchor the shoes to his feet had run out. There was no tape for anyone. Until the season starts, players are responsible for their own football shoes. They pay their way to training camp -- and their way home if cut.
One week later, the league folded. On February 19, 1992, the PSFL shut down operations, and never played a single game. And thus, another professional football league collapsed. Considering the lack of name recognition or the lack of a TV deal, and considering the WLAF already happening in the spring of 1992 while this league was trying to get underway, I’m not sure many people noticed that this league died. But it goes to show you that trying to start a football league in five months is usually a bad idea.
Previous Posts
History of the United Football League (2009-2012)
History of the Spring Football League (2000)
History of the Fall Experimental Football League (2013-2015)
History of the Stars Football League (2011-2013)
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2019 r/basbeall Power Rankings -- Week 15: The A's Attack Continues and Washington Celebrates July 4th by Winning, the Rockies Crumble and the Brewers Slide, a Midseason Shake-Up of the Ranks -- We're Halfway There, Who is Living on a Prayer?

Hey Sportsfans--it's time for Week 15 of baseball's Power Rankings--The world is very different now. For man holds in his mortal hands, the power to abolish all forms of bias and all forms of fairness. And yet, the same revolutionary beliefs for which our forerankers fought are still at issue around the internet: the belief that the ranks of teams come not from the generosity of the voters but from the hand of God.
Every voter has their own style / system and the only voting instructions are these:
"To an extent determined individually, you must take into account how strong a team is right now and likely to be going forward. You must, to some degree, give weight to the events and games of the previous week."
The 7th/8th place tie and the 18th/19th tie were both broken by our second tie-breaker: run differential.
TRANSPARENCY: this link will show you who voted each team where and has added neat statistics!
If something is a little messed up, feel free to pester me let me know.
Total Votes: 27 of 30. So close.
# Team Δ Comment Record
1 Dodgers 0 I feel like this team is in a very, very good place when a .500 week makes me feellike we had a really tough one. The Dodgers feel like they lose in bunches, then go back to winning, which can make being a fan a relatively volatile experience (that and the whole "Can't win a World Series" thing). I am ready for the break, get ready to see Joc Pederson smack some Joc Pops/Joc Jams all across Ohio, and hopefully the boys get some good rest going into the second hald 60-32
2 Yankees 0 Yankees in the ASG: Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Aroldis Chapman. Yankees at the halfway point: 4th wRC+, 6th in pitching fWAR, 2nd in rDiff. I do wish that one of those last two games against the Rays had bounced in our favor, and while Boone's bullpen usage continues to baffle me, I'm overall very pleased with the team. 57-31
3 Astros +1 7-3 in our last 10, reaching the All-Star Break at 57-33 with a 7.5 game lead on the Athletics. Yuli Gurriel has been phenomenal with the bat, and I'm not sure if he knows how to do anything other than style his hair like a pineapple and hit home runs. Wishing Alex Bregman the best in the Home Run Derby and let's get an AL win on Tuesday night! 57-33
4 Twins -1 The Twins enter the All-Star break with a 5.5 game lead over the Indians. The team desperately needs a rest, with the last couple weeks being a perfect storm of several key players gettiing injured, multiple marathon extra-inning games, and Cleveland going on a hot streak to close the gap. That being said, it's been a stellar first half for the Twins, breaking multiple team and MLB records. My favorite stat though is the one that shows just how resiliant we've been: The Twins' longest losing streak is still only two games, and are currently 24-8 the day after a loss. 56-33
5 Rays 0 The Rays had a winning record on the week, but it might be hard to tell with the 3 brutal extra-inning losses in a row. The good take is that it's good experience for a young team; even after coming back only to fail (in eerily similar fashions) two nights in a row against the Yanks, they were able to close out the series with a split in 2 more extremely close games. With the All-Star Break nigh, flappy fans ask: Team, I hope you're gonna buy. Also CFM leads AL ERA :) 52-39
6 Braves 0 A couple of questions after an excellent first half for the Braves. 1. Who is the real second contender in the division? Phillies have plenty of starpower but the Nationals have surged ahead. 2. Important decisions will have to be made about this roster very soon. Inciarte is coming back from his injury and there's no obvious odd-man out in the outfield. This doesn't even include Adam Duvall, who has 26 homers in AAA. Will a trade rectify it, or something else? Regardless, it's a good problem to have. 54-37
7 Atléticos +2 We gave the Twins their first series loss of the year at the start of the week and took 2 of 3 from the Mariners in Seattle. Olson has 19 HR's in 58 games. The Matt's both ended the first half at 137 OPS+. Chapman and Hendricks are our ASG reps, and Chapman was named to the HR Derby. Anderson and Fiers deserved spots in the ASG too, but alas. The trade deadline looms. 50-41
8 Red Sox 0 While not playing against the best competition, taking 5 of the last 6 is a great way to head into the all star break. The wildcard race is shaping up to be an absolute bloodbath, and with the division all but out of reach the Sox really needed this hot stretch. The offense is playing up to snuff, but we're not going to make ground without the pitching picking up some slack. I'll miss baseball, but at least the break will give me time to construct my shrine to Devers. 49-41
9 Indians +3 The surging Tribe swept the Royals and Reds for a perfect 5-0 week. Starting pitching, bullpen, batting, defense - all excellent. They've also halved the Twins' AL Central lead from 11 on June 14 to 5.5 headed into the break, and have the fewest losses among non-division leaders. Watch out, Twinkies, here we come! 50-38
10 Cubs -3 It was another strange week for this strange team and division. The Cubs reach the break in first place, but they're only up half a game on the Brewers and 4.5 games on the last place Reds. This first half was underwhelming, but I think any Cubs fan would have happily accepted first place at the All Star Break when this season began. Hopefully Hamels makes a quick recovery and the rest of the team can step up until he's back. 47-43
11 Nacionales +5 Most people rejected yousmelllikebiscuits message. They hated yousmelllikebiscuits because he told them the truth. The Nationals have been the best team in MLB since May 24 whey they were 12 games under 500. They currently hold an NL Wild Card spot and will try to reel in the Braves like Cole Trickle chasing down Russ Wheeler. 47-42
12 Rangers -1 48-42
13 D-Backs +2 The D-backs lost two heartbreakers against the Dodgeres before sweeping the Rockies at home. The bullpen is too bad to consider us serious contenders, but sitting a game above .500 at the All-Star break is a much better position than many envisioned for the Snakes coming into this year. 46-45
14 Brewers -4 oh no we suck again Currently Milwaukee has the second worst record in the NL over the last 20 games (7-13). The starting pitching has continued to perform poorly, the bats are rather inconsistent, but at least Jesus Aguilar is on a bit of a hot stretch this month (.500/.538/1.333) 47-44
15 Phillies -1 The team finished the first half with a series win vs the Mets. The key to this team has and will be the pitching, and they might have faced another blow to the rotation with Arrieta having bone spurs in his elbow with no clear cut depth to fill his spot. Both the SP and RP are in flux with injuries and lack of depth and must find stability to contend in a competitive NL Wild Card race in the 2nd half. 47-43
16 Cardenales +1 Pretty, prettttty, prettttttty close to burning it down. Tweaks aren't going to help this team, throwing everything into the air might. 44-44
17 Padres +1 It's disappointing to not have any representation in the home run derby, when 2 of our guys are in the top 10 in homers for all the MLB to this point. We got swept by the Giants this week, but beat LA 3/4 up there, putting us at .500 at the break for the first time since 2010 45-45
18 Reds +2 I turned 21 this weekend, so admittedly I didn't watch a whole bunch of baseball. But it seems the entire offense has decided to disappear at the same time except for Yasiel Puig. After a fun series win against Milwaukee, the Reds were absolutely annihilated by Cleveland. Luckily, the rest of the NL Central is as confusing as we are, so they can really make it interesting if they get hot after the break. 41-46
19 Angels 0 Yadier Molina's Instagram is basically me every time I watch Cam Bedrosian pitch. 45-46
20 Rockies -7 44-45
21 Pirates +1 What is it about the Pirates and the week before the All-Star break? Once again, the Bucs are red-hot coming into the Midsummer Classic, winning 5 of 7 this week against the top teams in the NL Central. Suddenly, a team that seemed DOA in early June is only 2.5 games out of first, the closest the Bucs have been to the top at the All-Star break since 2015. In years past, the Pirates have seemed to lose their momentum in the off week, but they'll need to keep things going this weekend against the Cubs to stay in the 5-team race. 44-45
22 Mets -1 First half over. We've got three quite deserving All-Stars, and about as many wins. The Díaz/Canó deal sure looks like a disappointment at the midway mark, as do the signings of Familia and Lowrie (the latter of whom will play one game for the Mets, a David Wright-style comeback in 2020). Our midseason LVP award goes to the entire bullpen. Our midseason MVP, on the other hand, probably goes to Jeff McNeil, who has proven himself to be an absolute beast of a pure hitter. Love you, Squirrel. 40-50
23 White Sox 0 Everyone keeps talking about Giolito, but Yoan Moncada is currently the 16th best player in baseball by fWAR with a ro-bust 3.2. Also, I could watch Eloy beat the Cubs for the rest of my life. 42-44
24 Gigantes +1 The Giants amazingly surged to a 5-1 week going into the break, outscoring their opponents 43-23 in the process. A sweep of the Padres marked the team's first 3-game sweep of anybody in over a year. Will Smith is a perfect 23-for-23 in save opportunities, and should net a nice return at the trade deadline. Madison Bumgarner almost got his elbow exploded by a line drive and is hopefully healthy by the trade deadline. Heliot Ramos and Joey Bart are both in the Futures Game. At the very least, Giants baseball has somehow been interesting over the last coule weeks. 41-48
25 Mariners -1 Danny V was snubbed for the Home Run Derby. That is All. 39-55
26 Blue Jays +1 Since May 24th, only Mike Trout and Pete Alonso have hit the ball better than Lourdes "Pina Power" Gurriel Jr. Cavan Biggio has a better O-Swing% than anyone in baseball, including Joey Votto. Danny Jansen had an OPS of .982 over the past 30 days. With Vladito in the HR Derby, Nate Pearson throwing 102mph in the Futures Game, and Bo Bichette on the horizon, Blue Jays fans have plenty to look forward to. 34-57
27 Marlins -1 Seeing the fish be this useless against the nats and barves sucks a mean one. On the positive side, sandy will pitch in the all star game and caleb smith looks back to normal after his first start back. Im just counting the days until Isan Diaz gets called up. 33-55
28 Royals 0 THis would be a great time for the Royals to overhaul their roster, cutting veteran players that will not be part of the future while bringing up the likes of Bubba Starling, Richard Lovelady, Jake Kalish, and Gabe Speier. Instead, Lucas Duda, Wily Peralta, and Kevin McCarthy will continue to wang chung. 30-61
29 Tigres 0 Jack Morris is making dumb comments about Miggy, Al Avila got an extension, and the team is crawling to the All Star break, having won a total of six games since the start of June. Scratch that, they are in a wheelchair headed into the All Star break. Oof. After the break, the Tigers open with a three game set at Kansas City. It'll be a barn burner. 28-57
30 Orioles 0 I am in Vegas this week so the only thing I will say is I made a huge bet on the Orioles as World Series champs in 2023. Woooooooo. 27-62
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[OC] Is the NBA ready for a tier system league? (Version 2.0)

TL/DR : This post attempts to ponder over whether it's possible to have a tier system in the NBA, complete with promotions and relegations, like the one followed by club football the world over. The idea's a little radical, but there's a number of advantages, and a number of low hanging benefits.

Is there a Market for 10 other teams?
This is the first question that comes to mind. I frequently read that the league is already watered down, and there's not enough talent to support the 40 teams that are currently playing, with some suggesting reducing the number to increase the talent distribution and level of overall play. I don't subscribe to this view at all. Italy is a country a fraction of the size of America, yet they have football clubs all over the country, from small villages to local teams from Milan and Rome. This concept isn't restricted to Italy either. The same concept is followed all over the world, from South America to Asia & Europe. The proportion of football clubs per country is same as wild mushrooms per jungle, relatively speaking. So why can't America, one of the biggest countries in the world, follow the same concept, and increase the number of basketball teams?
Off the top of my head, which most people would agree with, Las Vegas and Seattle scream the need for a basketball team. After that, places like San Diego, Baltimore, Kansas City & St. Louis are strong contenders for a franchise. You can add-in any of the old ABA teams if the city provide an arena for the franchise. I haven't even covered the other biggest cities in America that haven't gotten a basketball team yet. The market is massive, really.
So, now that we've established possible locations for the teams, lets talk about the economics. It's safe to assume that there won't be a big TV deal for this, new, second tier. That's fine. We're looking at a model that's not based on the NBA economics, and doesn't include 100m salary cap, huge TV money etc. I suppose they would have to use some Euro league or China as bench mark for their pay scale model. Think of it as NBA before the million dollar contracts, where most of the revenue generated was from attendance & merchandise sales. Think of the time when Magic's 10m-10 year contract caused an uproar not just within the owners, but also within the players. i.e.- small contracts with no vet-minimum guarantees etc. It'll primarily be targeting players that are happy to earn a living playing basketball.

Where will the additional players come from?
I'll circle back to this in a little bit. Truck on.
Modifying the G/ D-League slightly
Before we continue any further on the expansion teams, lets look at the current feeder team system that the NBA has established, how it compares to the youth teams in Football, and how we can bring some changes that'll benefit everyone. As far as I'm aware, the NBA has a D/G League, in which almost all teams are linked with a NBA counterpart. If not, they're in the process of expanding and linking. This, as far as I know, is past the discussion phase and in implementation.
Let's exercise some sort of an age limit on the teams. Whether it's by physical age, or by the number of years a player has been in the league is flexible; point is, the D/ G League will mostly be for the younger players. i.e.- The kids that aren't ready physically or tactically to play regularly against the likes of Durant or Lebron, will now get to compete against others at a similar level as them. How will this help?
1) This will help their own development much more than just with coaches in their team gym. There's a lot more Jerian Grants, Noah Vonlehs and Buddy Hields in the league, than Jason Tatums and Donovan Mitchells.
However, we'll give the teams some exceptions and leeway to this rule. i.e.- They'll be allowed to field 2-3 players over this age limit, depending on injury history or some other exceptions.
2) This will benefit a player coming off an injury, who needs to get some serious minutes in his legs before he can get back in the league. Think Hayward when he comes back, or Thomas working his way back in and up in Cleveland. No amount of gym practice can replicate game play.
3) It'll benefit any bad contract that needs to have his value pushed back up. Carrol was in this category and Toronto had give up a first round pick just to get rid of him. He's now an asset in Brooklyn. If he had the option showcase what he could do in the D League, maybe the loss would've been restricted to a heavily protected first rounder, or even just second rounders. Noah is the epitome of a bad contract. Teams would demand an arm and a leg just to take him. If he were to get time in the D/G League, and manage to average 4 pts. and 8 rbs. in 25 mins. the hit might not be so severe.
*Just to be clear, I'm not suggesting that his salary will come off the Knicks books, should he feature in their juniors team. That'll just create an accounting mess. His salary will stay on their books, just as for any injured player that features for their D/G counter team, but he/ they will get an opportunity to showcase what they can still offer, or to get assessed as where they are, in development or physical shape.

What does this have to do with the tier system, and how does it affect it?
This is where I circle back to who'll play in the second tier.
Make these changes to the G/D League and most of the 27-29 y.o.'s will get filtered out of the system. They had a very small chance to make it in the league in any case. These cut-loose players will end up forming the bulk of the second tier. Add in the undraftees, some 'off to China' migrants that don't want to, some veterans who don't want to quit, but can't hack it in the league without getting stats thrown in their face, and you've got a nice little collection. Imagine Rose balling out in tier 2, hoping to find a tier 1 team to take another chance on him after a season or two of consistency. If this option were available for, say Garnett, Pierce, Bryant (examples), away from the prying media, in a less talented league, in terms of both physicality and ability, where they could bring some leadership, experience and work ethics, maybe they'd stick around. Maybe not all, but some would definitely think about it. They'd also bring the star power that puts people in the seats. You can't tell me the people of Baltimore wouldn't pay to see these guys live, in action, who they might've only seen on TV, for 20 games, on cheap prices.

The Incentive for all parties
Now that we've established the destinations for the teams, and a bulk of the playing staff, there will still remain questions about why the different parties involved like Team Owners, TV Networks, Management etc. will agree to it. Here, I'll attempt to cover all different vested interests that might get affected by this second tier league.
The Owners
I've read that they're like a cartel in their closely guarded control & power regarding everything about the league. Why would they suddenly agree to the threat of relegations?
1) Simply put, financial reasons. Random teams in small markets with consistently losing records are today being valued at over a billion dollars. And still, if ever a team comes up on the market, billionaires form a line to buy it. If the buy point for this new league is floated at 350m (conservative sum), I feel like there would be a line going for blocks outside Silver's office. He'd be getting spammed on PM's & DM's. A reasonable estimate of 10 teams might net the league 3.5 billion dollars. Even if Silver takes out 30m for expenses & fee, that's still 100m per owner, free, straight cash. That's good enough to cover losses for many years over. It'll make them salivate. After this, only a handful of really shitty teams (Knicks, Kings etc.) might remain on the outside, and that's no guarantee either. To sweeten the stakes, the league can stretch the concept of 'Relegation' & 'Promotion' to collective performances over three years, and give a initial 'Grace' period after the inception of the 2nd tier league.
2) Planting the seeds for expansions in the future will only come back to benefit the owners. As long as none of the owners are shortsighted (and even then, that might get covered by point 1) it's in the leagues best interest in the long term. End of the season games will generate hype to which teams are in the danger or relegation, much like the interest in last few games when many teams were in the running for the last remaining play-off place in the west. It'll just expand the market for viewership & merchandise sales in a market that is massive & mature.
The Management
Why would Silver go through the hassles of undertaking this mammoth task when he's got enough on his plate as is? There's the issue of tanking & lottery odds; racism, kneeling & other social causes; CBA's to negotiate every few years, all without including the daily grind that keeps the league running.
1) It'll not be as taxing as imagined. Because the basketball market is now established, and the league is aware of all the missteps it took back when the NBA & the ABA were still in their infancy, it'll not be as big a challenge.
2) It'll de-incentivize tanking like nothing else. Imagine that. You get the best draft pick available, but you'll be forced to play in the second tier. That itself is reason to start winning and finishing 'not last'. Given the rookie scales that the league currently applies, they'll fit right in with the tier 2 finances.
Most rookies aren't ready to become starting, contributing members anyway. If they're good enough, a bigger team might give up some veteran good contracts to take them, which'll suit the relegated team to bounce back up to tier 1 immediately, with the help of players on contracts that might fit their finances.
The Networks
Why would the networks agree to it? Would it not create a threat to their NBA games viewership, thus affecting their ratings?
1) The Networks need not feel threatened by this new tier. Their arrangement with the league for NBA games will remain unchanged, and they might even get first options in broadcasting rights for tier 2. If the terms aren't favourable, they can choose to pass, and some other network can then come in.
2) There's, simply put, an untapped market there. There's a massive gap in demand & supply in this league. The League is trying international games to maximise their viewership in international markets when they're sitting on a goldmine in their home.
The way 'March Madness' takes over (gifs of students taping phones to the back of other students to watch games during classes, GW girls promoting their 'bracket' in their posts etc.) just shows how badly starved the nation is for 'local' basketball. It's one thing to watch in the play-offs. It's another to support your local team. Since most cities haven't got a team, they turn to their alma matter. If a team nearer to their town comes up, they'll be supporting it much more actively & rabidly. It's almost like NBA is the GE, Ford of business, while college basketball is the start-up that's eating into their share, an they're not able to do anything about it. The NBA should be tearing into this viewership, like a Lion taking a Cheetah's kill.

The issues will have to be ironed out
Now, saying that the second tier finances will have to be lower than tier one, possibly in line with some Euro Leagues or China, that's like saying a company's incurring losses because it's spending more than it's making. Here's the broad questions that come up :-
1) Will the teams in tier 2 have things like a salary floor, mid-level exception etc.? I mean, do you want to saddle a team with those minimum expenses when they're just starting out? It might guarantee losses before they even begin.
2) Will tier 1 be open to sharing the revenue with tier 2? I highly doubt it. I've read that without it, most teams are operating in losses. If so, will there be a separate bargaining agreement for tier 2?
3) Will there be a cap space in tier 2? If you get a renegade owner hell bent on spending, just to get his team in tier 1, and absorbing the losses of a high wage bill in tier 2 for the first few years, that's the equivalent of gaming the system.
4) How will it affect inter tier trades? This is the biggest question of all. Suppose Noah goes to the G league and people that watch him come to the consensus that he's a useful roatation player, starter in tier 2, but of no use in tier 1. Can he get traded to tier 2? How will it affect tier 2's cap scape? How will it affect tier1's cap scape? Can we have a MLB style 'Knicks agreeing to pay a part of Noah wages to tier 2 team' system? I suppose a tier 2 player on a cheap contract that start's balling out and catches the eye of a tier 1 team will have the ability to re-negotiate his contract.
5) What'll happen to the draft? Another big question. If we're going by tier 1 getting the lottery picks (as stipulated above), tier 2 will get further watered down talent. Will it be a combined draft? Combine the draft's and who determines the odds and order of picks? We'll also need a much bigger draft. Will there be two separate draft's, with tier 2 picking from the 'undraftees' (as stipulated above)? That might work.
6) Will there be separate commissioners & panels for the two tiers? I don't suppose so. Silver should be able to oversee both league's executive decisions without any clash of interest. Ownership committees will probably remain separate.

Summary
To summarise, there's a massive, practically endless, market, & a real potential for growth, for smaller basketball teams in America. The NBA is trying all these international venue matches to popularise their growth in the world when they're sitting on a massive untapped market in their home. All the league needs to do is plant the seeds, give it time and support, and watch the ecosystem grow.

P.S.- I'd also made a post trying to rectify tanking. It was, surprisingly, not down-voted. Link for those interested.
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las vegas mlb futures odds video

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The Major League Baseball (MLB) Futures market is available on a 12-month basis and the future odds are normally updated on a weekly basis at betting shops in Las Vegas and globally in the United States. Bettors can place wagers on the event in both the offseason, regular season and postseason. Betting Lines Las Vegas SportsBook – Sports Betting – Vegas Odds. Home; NFL Football. NFL Match up; NFL scoreboard; NFL standings; NFL injury; NFL Trend Sheet; NFL Futures Odds; MLB Futures Odds . Facebook. Twitter. Google+. email. Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins: Type: Moneyline - Status: OPEN {DEBUG: 2W-12 / MATCH} Miami Marlins +500 Las Vegas Odds Sportsbook Get All Your Favorable Sports Betting Lines & Vegas Odds Tigres de Aragua vs Tiburones de La Guaira: Type: Total - Status: SUSPENDED {DEBUG: 2W-OU / MATCH}: Over: 10 (-115) Under: 10 (-115) Type: Moneyline - Status: SUSPENDED {DEBUG: 2W-12 / MATCH}: Tiburones de La Guaira Las Vegas Sports Betting and Bovada Sportsbook have joined forces to generate the most complete odds and game matchups site on the Web. View the most up-to-date odds for all MLB baseball, NFL Football, NBA Basketball, NASCAR, NHL Hockey, WNBA Basketball, and NCAA college football and basketball games, updated every two minutes. MLB FuturesODDS TO WIN 2021 WORLD SERIES. MLB. Team Odds; L.A. Dodgers Dodgers +350. N.Y. Yankees Yankees +550. San Diego Padres +900. Chi. White Sox White Sox +1000. N.Y. Mets Mets +1000. Atlanta Braves +1200. Minnesota Twins +1600. Oakland Athletics +1800. Houston Astros +2000. Toronto Blue Jays +2000. St. Louis Cardinals +2500. Tampa Bay Rays An MLB future is a wager on a professional baseball event that has yet to happen, but will occur later in the year. You can bet on MLB futures at any point over the course of the season, but just keep in mind that sportsbooks set the odds in the preseason and adjust them accordingly based on teams’ strengths and weaknesses. Las Vegas is such a sports betting hub that its sportsbooks play a massive role in setting the odds for all others to follow. What Is An MLB Futures Bet? An MLB futures bet is placing a wager on a future event. Atlanta Braves, and Tampa Bay Rays all stand as strong contenders according to the offseason futures odds on the 2021 World Get real-time scores, betting lines, and betting odds for all your favorite sports. MLB Vegas Odds MLB Global Odds MLB Matchups MLB Scores. NBA NBA Expert Picks NBA Vegas Odds NBA Global Odds NBA Matchups NBA Scores. NHL NHL Expert Picks NHL Vegas Odds Free Odds Comparison Las Vegas Travel TV Listings Sportsbook Reviews Newsletters. Sports Betting Tools Parlay Calculator Gaming Terms Handicapper Records. VegasInsider Info

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Will Las Vegas Run Out of Water? - YouTube

MSG Sphere making progress on road to Las Vegas Strip Direct from the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas Kelly Stewart talks with professional sports bettors Teddy Covers and Gianni the Greek (Vegas Runner) on the ... This video will help explain how to use vegas odds to help build your roster in Draftkings to win money. NHL Picks, Odds and Predictions ... VIP Sports Las Vegas Podcast #271 - MLB Future Bets, NFL & NBA News, Master Closer 101 - Duration: 29:17. VIP Sports Las Vegas 2,900 views. 29:17. NBA Picks and ... NFL Betting experts Donnie Rightside and Teddy Covers talk about the released Super Bowl 2020 Future Odds and which are looking like strong candidates to tak... This is a video showing list of future stadiums in the NFL. You will find out which are the stadiums being built right now, when the stadium will open, which... 📖 Ballparks: A Journey Through the Fields of the Past, Present, and Future book: https://amzn.to/3bO5gAtFuture MLB ballparks. List of future Major League Ba... The Mayor of Las Vegas Carolyn Goodman joins Prime Time Sports to talk about Golden Knights, the Raiders coming, and how she isn't done yet and thinks her ci... Will the Colorado River dry up? Mr. Beat examines the dangers of cities like Las Vegas running out of water due to recent population growth and drought in th... A look at what it might mean for the Las Vegas area if Major League Baseball decides to move in.

las vegas mlb futures odds

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