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Official r/NFL Week 14 Power Rankings
Welcome to the week 14 Official NFL Power Rankings! With circus catches and beatdowns alongside great games, there was plenty to discuss even before a MNF Scorigami that might already be airing on ESPN classic. 32/32 Reporting
#
Team
Δ
Record
Comment
1.
Chiefs
--
12-1
The Dolphins gave the Chiefs all they could handle in the first quarter of Sunday's game, but the Chiefs once again proved that when they are focused, they are the most dangerous team in the NFL. Travis Kelce, the NFL's leading receiver currently, had another monster game showing why he's a future hall of famer. However, after having five 10+ point wins in the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs last five wins have all been won by one score. Will this trend ultimately matter come playoff time? It's hard to argue with results, as the Chiefs 12-1 record is the best record through 13 games in franchise history. The ultimate barometer for the Chiefs is this week as they travel to play the Saints, hopefully with Drew Brees. Many questions will be answered in this clash of two top five teams.
2.
Packers
+2
10-3
There always seems to be one Lions-Packer game a year that ends up being some kind of adventure. Rodgers and Adams were as good as ever but the Lions kept on lingering throughout the game. Mason "Silver Fox" Crosby nailed an insurance 58 yard field goal with 3:30 to play and made a touchdown-saving tackle on the immediate kickoff. Aside from Crosby, the special teams really leave a lot to be desired, especially after the hands team almost allowed a onside kick recovery (c'mon y'all I don't need Bostic flashbacks). Packers officially won the division game and are now the projected 1 seed, which is pretty neat ngl. Onto a Saturday game I guess?
3.
Bills
+2
10-3
For a team that was searching desperately in 2019 for a signature win, the 2020 Bills have found them everywhere they turn. This team has had one of the toughest schedules in the league, but except for a couple games they've shown up every time they've had to. This is the second-best team in the conference. The Bills bandwagons are circling now. Josh Allen's extending his baseball glove-sized hand. He says "get in nerds, we're goin' to the Super Bowl."
4.
Saints
-1
10-3
This loss = Hurts. Dennis Allen seemingly had no answers for the rookie QB and then Miles Sanders piled on as well. "All the things we didn't want to allow happen, happened in that game." This was Sean Payton's post-game assessment and it's fair. Taysom Hill had an acceptable statline but it hides how sloppy he looked on the field. The defense struggled with its assignment to contain Hurts and keep him from getting outside the pocket - a worrying sign considering the next QB on the schedule.
5.
Steelers
-3
11-2
The Steelers schedule has been insane. 6 days between NYG and DEN. 14 days between HOU and PHI. 10 days between JAX and BAL. But with that BAL game, the Steelers played them, WFT and BUF in 12 days. 3 games in 12 days. The team is out of LBs and OL. This has been a challenging season for everyone, but this is unprecedented. The Steelers have 8 days until CIN, then 6 days until IND. 10 out of 16 games played with an irregular schedule? You can argue the drops are kicking their ass, but this schedule has been brutal. No wonder they've lost 2 straight.
6.
Rams
--
9-4
Imagine only scoring 3 points in a game.
7.
Colts
+1
9-4
Kenny Moore is a player underrated by national media but massively valuable to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard made re-signing him a priority after his breakout 2018 season. Moore has been a reliable performer throughout his tenure as a Colt and added an exclamation point with his insane one-handed interception on Sunday.
8.
Titans
+1
9-4
Derrick Henry had his second 200+ yard 2 TD game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The performance made Henry the 7th player to rush for 1,500+ yards and 14+ TDs through 13 games.
9.
Seahawks
+1
9-4
Nothing cures suicidal thoughts losing like playing the Jets, baby. Sunday was never much of a game, as it was all Seahawks all day. Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, Jamal Adams broke the single season sack record for defensive backs, and Geno Smith got to play a full quarter against the team that drafted him. What a way to get over a bad loss to the Giants. Up next the Seahawks will take on their final NFC East opponent of the season; Football Team.
10.
Ravens
+2
8-5
This ranker is a brown man, writing about how Lamar Jackson lost 20 pounds dropping some brown, dropping a TD to Brown, to go ahead against the Browns. They go for two. So in response, K-hunt ties the game, 42-42. In response, the Llama sets up the GOAT to nail a 54-yarder, 16th game winner of his career! To say nothing else of the game -- 9 total fucking rushing touchdowns, tying a record held since two defunct teams played each other before anyone on reddit was born... and Jackson runs for a MNF QB record 124 yards -- but still gets all the clutch plays done with his arm, with this middling group of receivers. The even greater news amidst all this is that the schedule doesn't look so bad in the closing stretch, and inspired play like this past Monday from the offense will ease the burden of the Ravens' gradually depleting secondary. Best wishes to Trace McSorely who made an extremely commendable effort to set them up for Lamar's return.
11.
Browns
-4
9-4
Did you bet the over? The Browns and Ravens combined for 89 points in an absolute rollercoaster of a game. While they did not win, the Browns have shown they are contenders. With two games to go a real shot at the playoffs is on the table. The Browns will face the Giants in another prime time game.
12.
Buccaneers
-1
8-5
The Buccaneers pulled off a 26-14 win over the Vikings, bringing their playoff chances to 94%. Vikes kicker Dan Bailey channeled his inner Gary Anderson to win the Bucs' game ball on an 0/3 kicking performance with an additional missed XP. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. played a disruptive game against his dad's former team and is looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's next great safeties. With only interim coaches to close out the remaining three games of the season, the Bucs should have smooth sailing into the Wild Card round.
13.
Dolphins
--
8-5
There are no consolation prizes in the NFL, but a single score loss to the best team in the league while the backup waterboy is lining up in the slot is about as close to a one as you'll ever get. While he was able to pull off the win, even Patrick Mahomes couldn't keep this ball-hawking defense from getting a hold of the ball, often. And at some point, if people don't start talking about Xavien Howard in the DPOY conversation, he's just going to go intercept the damned award himself. Hopefully, the long, long list of injured Dolphins get well soon.
14.
Cardinals
+1
7-6
A monster day from Haason Reddick and the defense finally put the Cardinals back on the winning track. Breaking a franchise record with 5 sacks was one thing, but getting all the turnovers was huge. Hopefully the offense feeds off of it and has a good week in preparing for a big game with Philly that has huge playoff implications. It will take a complete team effort to beat Philly with Jalen Hurts starting fresh of a win against the Saints.
15.
Raiders
-1
7-6
The Raiders looked really bad against the Colts, just like they have for the better part of the last 6 weeks. Luckily Gruden finally made the call to fire Pauly G, something fans have been calling for for the past 2 seasons. Only time will tell if it's too little, too late. Every game from here on out is a must win if the Raiders want to make the playoffs.
16.
Washington FT
+3
6-7
Washington is finding ways to win instead of finding ways to lose. The offense was not able to score a TD so the defense went ahead and spotted them 14 points. Chase Young notches his first TD and continues to prove his worth as the 2nd overall pick as a game wrecker.
17.
Vikings
--
6-7
Dalvin Cook became the first back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bucs in over 20 games, but the Vikings were unable to convert long drives into points as Dan Bailey went 0/4 on field goals and extra points. Couple that with some questionable officiating, the Vikings' banged up front seven generating zero pressure on Tom Brady and plenty of self-inflicted wounds and it all adds up to a real tough loss that knocks the Vikings down from wild card favorites to playoff long shots.
18.
Bears
+5
6-7
The Bears finally snapped their six-game losing streak by rolling over the Texans without much difficulty. Trubisky attempted one throw longer than 20 yards.
19.
Patriots
-3
6-7
Los Angeles, is a land of contrasts - In a span of four days the Patriots' hopes for a postseason were revived and then unceremoniously squashed. Run Defense, Offensive Line, Cam and the Receivers, There just are too many holes to cover up with week to week coaching, this team needs some reworking over the offseason. The Pats end the season with the division as always, lets hope to fuck someone’s season or seeding up. And also the Jets.
20.
49ers
-2
5-8
The 49ers defense did their job, holding the Washington offense to a total of 9 points, but the offense had two takeaways brought back for touchdowns and could not recover. The team looks to right the ship this week against the Cowboys.
It’s a real joy to watch the rest of the teams in the up-for-grabs NFC East secure wins, with one being against a top-5 team, all while watching your team play so poorly they start setting franchise records. At least we can say the hype was fun while it lasted, right?
23.
Falcons
-1
4-9
Outplayed by a team whose most impressive win is a tossup between the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets? Check. Outcoached by special teams ace Anthony Lynn? Check. Ten point lead blown, two interceptions with under five minutes left, double check. Good thing age is just a number for the 32nd youngest team in the league.
24.
Panthers
-3
4-9
I'm not sure where the Panthers go from here. Coach Rhule has said that he isn't going to do the team and fans a disservice by beginning to evaluate players, which means that we're going to see more of Teddy Bridgewater (who is 0-7 in one score games this season) crumble at the end of the game. Playing at Lambeau in primetime in December is one of the hardest things a team can do, and it's not going to be an easy test for the Panthers, who so far have shown that they can't win close games, nor can they defend the pass (23rd in passing defense). It's going to be tough sledding, but hopefully Jeremy Chinn can continue his torrid pace and run his way into DROY.
25.
Eagles
+3
4-8-1
Jalen Hurts delivered the spark the Eagles needed to upset the Saints and spread 'quarterback controversy' all over the city of brotherly love. While the season remains a disappointment, the dual running threat of Hurts and Sanders could be interesting to watch going forward, and the NFC Least remains wide-open with 2 divisional games left on the 2020 menu.
26.
Lions
-1
5-8
Even with a loss, Interim HC Darrell Bevell showed that his Lions are here to compete. This game was never out of hands, and the Lions kept it close the entire time. There are still plenty of woes on Defense, but the Offense continued to ball out as expected. With two TD's coming from the run game (Swift and Kerryon), there is already something to look forward to next year. Lately the team has been able to trust the run on short yardage and redzone carries and it has helped the team with consistency in the red zone. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is a QB that can carve up a weak secondary... so that didn't go great. There's around a 1% chance of the Lions getting a playoff spot, not unheard of, but it'll be tough if Stafford's injury progresses and we lose him for the season. #DefendTheDen
27.
Chargers
--
4-9
First of all, props to Falcons Twitter for this gem before the game, and it played out exactly as expected. Both teams did their best to try giving it away at the end, but the Chargers ended up on the winning side this time around. The Chargers had their hiccups again but there were improvements across the board; Justin Herbert's 81.8% completion percentage is his highest of the season, the defense came away with 3 INTs, and special teams probably had their best day. The Chargers get a short week before a Thursday Night tilt in Las Vegas.
28.
Texans
-4
4-9
The Texans are lucky that Paxton is the Texas AG, otherwise they would have had the biggest blowout loss in the state this past week.
29.
Cowboys
--
4-9
The Red Rifle won his revenge game, the defense forced multiple turnovers, and the Bengals were held to 3.4 yards per carry. All that, and the Cowboys still come out of the week with a top 5 draft pick. Honestly, Sunday couldn't have gone better. Now, the only question is whether this was the team turning the corner and the beginning of a strong finish to the season, or this was just a perfect moment of the Cowboys finding a shittier team with serious injuries issues and just doing what should happen in that scenario.
30.
Bengals
--
2-10-1
Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled since 2013 before his 1st quarter fumble on Sunday. So what does he get for his troubles? A spot on the bench thanks to Zac Taylor. Giovani was one of the only veterans who spoke out in behalf of Taylor and the current coaches when multiple articles were released with "sources" saying that Taylor had lost the locker room last month. You have to question the benching for multiple reasons as the directionless Bengals continue to flounder to blowout losses. Just another reason why this should be Zac Taylor's last season as head coach in Cincinnati.
31.
Jaguars
--
1-12
This one felt more as expected. Perhaps it was in former GM Dave Caldwell's plans— no, wait, hear me out. Adjusting tinfoil hat; Based on the moves taken this offseason to seemingly dump talent from the Jaguars in attempt to amass more draft picks, perhaps the former front office of the Jaguars were banking on this season not being played, due to pandemic reasons. Sure, this may sound farfetched, but I'd like to hear a more reasonable explanation for fielding such a disaster as this team, this season.
32.
Jets
--
0-13
The Jets have now scored on 7 consecutive opening drives, the longest streak in the NFL. After climbing to an early 3-0 lead, I watched Peter Sawkins make an excellent cranachan custard slice on The Great British Bake Off.
[NFL] 2020 the year of plague and woes, and how the NFL murdered the Denver Broncos and saved the Ravens
Background
The NFL is the professional organization for gridiron football in the United States, and one of the largest sporting organizations on the planet. Boasting a yearly revenue of over $16 billion... you know, lets pause and put that in perspective. Video games - the entire idea of electronic games you play, whether on your phone, computer, or dedicated console - have a yearly revenue of $44 billion. That means the NFL makes about 40% of what video games - the entire fucking industry - does worldwide. It is also deliciously petty. 31 of the 32 teams are owned by rich individuals who did not make their money through football. That means they're essentially owned by super rich fans who are not used to anyone telling them no. These owner superfans can fire people, demand trades, etc. And do. Imagine if you picked your industry, and had it run by a bunch of outsiders who knew very little about it, but had vast amounts of money and bad tempers. Oh and unlike European football with relegations, there's nothing to remove a team or force them to be competitive, meaning people making bad decisions can just keep making the bad decisions. The result is you could probably make a subreddit just called "Gridiron football drama" and it'd be populated as fuck. Therefore I won't go into the minor things - the players who robbed a bunch of people but then bribed their way out of charges, the dogfighting, the guy who shot himself in the leg, that's just standard petty shit. Coaches fired after good seasons because the owner doesn't like them, total idiots left on for years, good ol' boys who never seem to quite depart the NFL despite no one having an idea what they're good at, the ongoing disaster of analytics (the idea of applying mathematics to a sport run by overgrown infants), no, no, that's for another time. A good time. I'll probably do one or two more of these.
COVID and the League
The NFL makes $16 billion. COVID kills people. $16 billion vs. dead people. Hmmm. Dead people. $16 billion. So we're having a football season this year. It's almost guaranteed to kill at least some people who are either involved or involved in outbreaks caused by it, but hey, life goes on. Or doesn't. The NFL pays lip service to preventing the spread, which is the start of our delicious drama.
COVID Protocols - the answer
The NFL has instituted COVID protocols. These are insane. For instance, people on the sidelines have to wear a mask. Athletes don't, because you can't breath through a mask while pushing your body to its limits. They explored face shields, but nah. So you have two guys who are literally laying next to each other on the ground panting for breath after tackling (this sport isn't at all gay). They are breathing heavily, inches from each other. But say those exact same players who have been breathing in each other's faces for hours celebrate winning in the locker room? That sounds like half a million in fines. Pay up! There's no real describing how insane this is. The raiders coach doesn't like his mask so he's declared war on the NFL. The Patriots, Steelers, 49ers, Raiders, and more have been fined. The masks have also looked sillier and sillier. This man is considered a football genius. No, he hasn't taken one too many shots to the head or something, he's just incapable of wearing a mask normally. God knows why. Coaches regularly pull them down to talk to people, thus defeating the entire point, etc. See? He wears a mask when he doesn't need to be close to people or talk to them he only pulls it down for short periods of time when he's close and talking. I don't see the problem here. Half the organizations fined are appealing, and accusations of bias have flown back and forth. Angriest are the Saints, who are PISSED about being fined half a million dollars for having a celebration in their own locker room after a win after they passed a COVID test right before the game. Does any of this make sense? Nope! There's some more sensible protocols too. For instance new players have to test negative, then sit out in isolation for six days while the teams wait for them to make sure they don't have COVID, test negative again, then they can join the team. Of course isolation isn't that isolating, but that's a whole other matter. So overall, mixed bag for protocols.
Fake fan noise
Okay, so most games can't be attended by fans (not Dallas, Dallas said fuck it get sick and die) but crowd noise is a big part of football. Crowds cheer their team. So they pipe in fake crowd noise. This is a little creepy but not too bad. So where's the drama? Well, lets turn to Philadelphia, the city of brotherly love. Their QB, Carson Wentz, has been having a bit of a down year. So to show him love, they piped in fake boos. At a home game. This is kinda how Philly fans roll, but needless to say this move drew some controversy.
Baltimore Ravens COVID
The Baltimore Ravens were supposed to play a game on Thanksgiving, but their QB might have COVID. Fortunately the NFL was understanding. A QB is the most important position on the field, and without Lamar Jackson, there's no way the Ravens could be expected to play. So the game has been delayed as they work the situation out. So far, so good.
Denver Broncos
Okay, so that brings us to the Denver Broncos. See, anyone who has COVID has to be quarantined, as does anyone who might have it. Even if they test negative for a long while. So the Denver Broncos backup QB has COVID. And they had a long meeting with their QB and their other backup QB. And their other backup. In a room with no masks. They're all put on COVID watch list, meaning they can't play. So the Denver broncos have four quarterbacks, and none can play. The Ravens have just had a game delayed. The Broncos get told... game on. Okay, they look around for QBs they can get on short notice. But remember in the protocol section where they have to have new players wait six days? Oh. They don't have six days. In desperation they ask the NFL if they can at least play their assistant coach. He can throw footballs, and knows the playbook. Nope! Not signed as a player, has to sit for six days. "But he's been practicing with the team!" the Broncos tell the NFL. The NFL decides to beat the dead horse some more, and denies them. Thus the Denver Broncos try to figure out who on their team can throw a football. The answer was their practice squad wide receiver Kendell Hinton. Here's him throwing passes in training camp. Uh yeah, he catches passes. Not throws them. And has never played a game. And last threw a pass in a game in 2016, in college. And works as a salesman part time. Is this a total middle finger to the NFL from the Broncos, or just the only person they had? I don't know, but it's ugly.
The game.
So the Kendall Hinton completed 1 of 9 passes. These are the highlights. 1 for 9, 13 yards, 2 interceptions. The Broncos got drubbed by the Saints, obviously, although NO was pretty gentle with Hinton overall. There's a lot of "welcome to the NFL" defense strategies you can use against a new QB like blitz zero - basically an all-out blitz - that will generally crush them until they get used to it. NO kindly used none of that, playing pretty standard. Of course Hinton couldn't beat pretty standard, because Hinton is a receiver who isn't good enough to make the main squad. It's not all bad for him. The Denver Broncos gave him a shoutout on their Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Broncos/status/1333195716831838208 They reportedly gave him an ovation in the locker room, and gave him a the game ball. Multiple players have said they respect him, and they should. They weren't throwing the ball, and they probably would have looked just as bad. Gridiron football positions are not interchangeable, and QB is the hardest to step in to. Fortunately Hinton seemed happy postgame interview, but damn.
Fallout
Broncos fans are furious the Ravens sat while their team was forced to play. Even ESPN has called this game "unprecedented in the modern era of football." There's a bunch of wagon circling back and forth. Mike Klis a team reporter who covers them has reported that the Broncos other QBs tested negative before and after the game, meaning they could have played. Had they delayed the game they CERTAINLY could have played. So why did the NFL punish the Broncos and not the Ravens? Why show one team favoritism and guarantee the other a loss? A big controversy is the NFL seems to be pushing "name brand" QBs. Lamar Jackson, QB of the Ravens, is one of those name QBs, and the NFL is pushing him hard as one of the faces of their game. Drew Lock, the Broncos QB, is not. So this is adding fuel to that fire. Fans are convinced that people like Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Lamar Jackson are getting more protection from the NFL - refs are calling fouls if anyone touches them, they're rearranging schedules to highlight them, etc. These people most certainly increase NFL revenue, and the NFL pushes them hard. On the other side, many outfits are talking how the Broncos broke the rules, and how the punishment was not unwarranted. Are these connected to the NFL? Maybe. Sports media is a bit incestuous. They can't just go report on some other organization if the NFL bans them or does mean things to them. So this has drawn battle lines, and lead to a grand controversy that's still developing. Was this interesting? Anyone interested in a writeup of the collapse of the Chicago Bears in 2020, the Antonio Brown saga (in three part harmony), or the 60 year history of mismanagement and ineptitude that is the Detroit Lions? Do you like reading about Gridiron football?
Welcome to Part III, the final of the series. This project sort of started off as me just taking a glance at the NFL's rushing leaders. I quickly fell down a rabbit hole and started looking for interesting stats and anomalies. These stats fit in both a dynasty and fantasy context, I believe, so I am sharing it here. I'll cover each position group in three separate posts throughout the day (combining receivers and tight ends). Keep in mind that all of these stats are through week 14. Statistics I have pulled from previous seasons, unless stated otherwise, also only go through week 14; a snapshot of the way things looked at this exact time in 2018 and 2019. Any projections have been adjusted for how many games a player has missed, not based on a 16 game season. I'm fairly new to Reddit, so if something like this has already been done, my intent was not to copy anyone. Also, if this content belongs in a different subreddit, let me know so I can fix that. With that out of the way, let's get to receivers and tight ends. We'll start with a comparison between the high and low scorers in the WR1 (1-12) range of the last three years. PPR scoring. 2020: Hi - 301.0 (Tyreek Hill, WR1), Lo - 208.3 (Amari Cooper, WR12), Difference - 92.7 (roughly Scotty Miller, WR71) Again, these numbers will be through week 14 of their respective seasons. 2019: Hi - 304.5 (Michael Thomas), Lo - 207.8 (Keenan Allen), Difference - 96.7 (roughly Anthony Miller, WR60) 2018: Hi - 283.6 (Davante Adams), Lo - 218.7 (Mike Evans), Difference - 64.9 (roughly Phillip Dorsett, WR89) In a nutshell: Receiver is the least volatile position from year to year in terms of scoring range within its top tier; it has the lowest average spread of any position and you're losing about the same amount of production you'd expect out of a depth-level receiver who might come off the bench twice a season in a pinch. Because of this, there isn't as much value in having those top 5 elite guys as there is with quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends. It's still nice to have them anyway. And now a comparison of the high and low scorers in the TE1 (1-12) range, also of the last three years. PPR scoring. 2020: Hi - 267.2 (Travis Kelce, TE1), Lo - 116.2 (Jonnu Smith, TE12), Difference - 151.0 (roughly Robert Tonyan, TE4) 2019: Hi - 202.3 (Travis Kelce), Lo - 104.2 (Kyle Rudolph), Difference - 98.1 (roughly Ryan Griffin, TE17) 2018: Hi - 259.9 (Travis Kelce), Lo - 112.4 (David Njoku), Difference - 147.5 (roughly Austin Hooper, TE6) In a nutshell: In news to no one, Travis Kelce is really good. Also, while running back might have the most extremes within that 1-12 tier, there is no greater dropoff at any position than after the top two tight ends. Having Kelce or a healthy George Kittle is a cheat code in fantasy football. Because of this lop-sidedness, if you miss out on one of those guys, you're safe waiting at the position. For reference, in 2020, the gap between TE3 (TJ Hockenson) and TE12 (Jonnu Smith) is only 45.5 PPR points. Observations: 1)) The future of the wide receiver position is very bright. Four receivers have gone over the 1000 yard threshold for the first time in their careers. These players are:
DK Metcalf (1180 yards, #2 in NFL, 2nd season)
Justin Jefferson (1078 yards, #7 in NFL, 1st season)
Calvin Ridley (1029 yards, #8 in NFL, 3rd season)
Terry McLaurin (1001 yards, #10 in NFL, 2nd season)
But that's not all. There are four more receivers on track to break the 1000 yard barrier for the first time. These players are:
Robby Anderson (996 yards, on pace for 1226, 5th season)
Will Fuller (879 yards, on pace for 1119, 5th season)
Corey Davis (835 yards, on pace for 1063, 4th season)
Cole Beasley (838 yards, on pace for 1031, 9th[!] season)
2)) DJ Moore is an interesting case study. Among receivers with at least 75 targets, he leads the league in yards per reception (YPR) with 18.5. DK Metcalf (17.1 YPR), Justin Jefferson and Will Fuller (tied at 16.6 YPR), and AJ Brown (16.4 YPR) round out the top five. Let's build upon this. Moore has the lowest catch percentage among the top five in this category with 56.2%. Brown has a 63.0%, Metcalf's at 65.1%, and Jefferson and Fuller are also tied here with a 70.7%. At Moore's current trajectory, he is on track for 1155 receiving yards, which would fall short of the 1175 he posted last season. If Moore had Brown's catch rate, he would be on pace for 1295 yards. If he had Metcalf's, that would bump up to 1341 yards. If it was Jefferson or Fuller's 70.7%, Moore would be on track for a 1458 yard season. What could have been... 4) Travis Kelce is on a historically great pace. He leads the NFL right now with 1250 yards. At his current rate, he is on track to finish the season with 1538. This figure would surpass Victor Cruz for the 35th greatest receiving season in NFL history. Cruz posted 1536 yards back in 2011 with the New York Giants. Even more notably, it would be the all-time greatest single season for a tight end in terms of receiving yards. Let's go a little farther. These 1538 receiving yards would be the 3rd most of all time for a player aged 31 or older, surpassed only by Jerry Rice (1848 yards at 32 in 1995) and Andre Johnson (1598 yards at 31 in 2012). Special players seem to be relatively unaffected by the post-30 wall. 5) With Kelce putting up historic numbers, guys like Darren Waller and TJ Hockenson are getting lost in the shuffle. Waller is the #2 tight end in PPR and, as previously mentioned, Hockenson is #3. Waller is on pace for 253.2 points, which would be good for the #7 tight end season since 2015. He is only 28 and just hitting his prime. Locked and loaded dynasty stud. As a Lions fan, I'm particularly happy with Hockenson's progress. After a somewhat disappointing rookie season, the 23-year-old is 4th in the league among tight ends in PPR points per game with 12.4. This is behind only Kelce, Kittle, and Waller. He is on track for 199.0 fantasy points, which would only be 8.2 points behind Mark Andrews' breakout second season in 2019. And that will conclude my deep dive into receiver and tight end statistics, which also concludes the series. If you missed the previous two posts, they can be found below. Thanks for reading! Quarterbacks: https://www.reddit.com/DynastyFF/comments/kf32eq/statistical_deep_dive_quarterbacks/ Running Backs: https://www.reddit.com/DynastyFF/comments/kf509y/statistical_deep_dive_running_backs/
https://preview.redd.it/lxc5ahmpmhx51.png?width=1100&format=png&auto=webp&s=96377ee44f927e18fd1c787f45bb5d8e093ad3dc We have made it through the first eight weeks of the 2020 season and it’s time to hand out some trophies (not literally of course, since we have to wait until the year is over). I already did this when I predicted the entire season about a week before we kicked things off and a lot of the candidates I mentioned back then, you will here again, but at the same time, some guys have kind of come out of nowhere. For some of these categories, three names were enough, while for a few others I mentioned two more notables. So who have been my MVP, Defensive Player and Coach of the Year, among others, for the first half of the season? Plus, at the bottom I added my All-Pro teams at this point. Also make sure to check out my detailed recap of NFL week eight.
Most Valuable Player:
I think three candidates have kind of separated themselves from the rest of the pack in this MVP discussion and the guy I have at the top has been there all season long, because no other player has been more valuable to his team and their success. https://preview.redd.it/lghw4cpxmhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0ae49df242209b2cf48fe6053ae79d306861177 1. Russell Wilson I have always said Wilson is one of the premiere quarterbacks in the NFL and that the only thing holding him back from quite putting up the same numbers other MVP candidates have produced is his own coaching staff and the conservative he plays in. Well, this year Brian Schottenheimer & company have finally listened to Seahawks fans screaming to “let Russ cook” and he has been smoking hot. Russ is top three in completion percentage (71.5%) and yards per attempt (8.4) and yards per game (307.3), leads NFL with a passer rating of 120.8 and 26 touchdown passes, which makes up for more than one TD every 10th attempt – also an NFL-best mark. And the crazy part is that his team has needed him to be that explosive, since Seattle’s defense has given up an average of 460.9 yards per game – easily the most of any team in the league. The Seahawks themselves are scoring an NFL-best 34.3 points per game and their season-low(!) 27 points came in a matchup, where he led one of his two game-winning drives on the season (versus Minnesota). He is also the only quarterback with multiple starts to not have lost a fumble all season long. The only blemish on Wilson’s resume and the Hawks lone loss came at Arizona in a Sunday Night game, where their quarterback threw three of his six interceptions on the year and that was his only performance that he had a passer rating below 100 in. However in that game, he lit up the Cardinals with the deep ball and made some incredible plays throughout the night. And if you break down the three picks he threw, two of them came by defenders who had to cover a ton of ground and no quarterback would have anticipated them to even be a factor, while on that third one D.K. slowed down for a back-shoulder throw The Seahawks put 35 points on the Patriots, 31 against the Dolphins number-one scoring defense and just now 37 against San Francisco – and it could easily been more if the came wasn’t completely out of hand in the fourth quarter. 2. Patrick Mahomes I know Mahomes has five TD passes less than Russ despite having played one more game, but he also only has one interception on the year – and that one came when he pushed it downfield on a 4th & long towards the end of the Chiefs’ only loss on the season. He is also behind only Wilson in quarterback rating (115.0) and first in QBR (86.8), with the latter thanks to what he has done taking off when nothing is there, which he has really gotten great at once he sees 2-man or other favorable situations. Of the 34 times he has taken off, nine have resulted in first downs and he finished in the end-zone twice. Of course this is still about Mahomes and Kansas City trashing opposing teams with all those weapons in the passing game. With defenses playing a lot more soft coverage against the Chiefs, Mahomes has taken advantage underneath with those short completions, while still finding ways to allow his receivers to uncover on secondary routes and getting the ball to them from all different angles. So his intended air yards may not be overly impressive, because of all the screens and stuff they draw up, and he might “only” be sixth in yards per attempt, but Pat is still tied for first with 31 passes of 20+ yards. He absolutely picked apart the Ravens defense in that huge Monday Night showdown, which tried every coverage and blitz package imaginable and the quarterback had an answer for all of them, completing some throws nobody in the league could make. The Chiefs’ season-low in points (23) came at the Chargers, when he certainly didn’t start out great, but still found a way to lead a comeback and win in overtime. And even in their only loss of the season against the Raiders, it was the opposing offense converting a sneak on fourth down, that denied Mahomes a chance to finish their late push. 3. Aaron Rodgers When you look at Rodgers’ most impressive statistic for his career it is his ridiculous touchdown-to-interception ratio of 4.47, which is a full point better than the next-closest guy (Russell Wilson) and twice as good as anybody that hasn’t played in the 2010’s. Well, right now he has the second-best rate for this season, behind only Patrick Mahomes at 20-2, and those two picks came in his only bad game at Tampa Bay. I’m not going to sugercoat this in any way – after going up 10-0 and once that pass-rush from the Bucs was unleashed, he could not get anything going. With that being said, he has been phenomenal in the six other contests, having throw less than 3 TDs in only of them and his lowest QB rating being at 107.6, with both of those thing coming against Detroit in week two, when the Packers just didn’t need him to crazy and still put up 42 points, as Aaron Jones got loose on multiple occasions. And Rodgers had not fumbled until that very last play we saw from him, as he was stripped from behind while trying to launch a Hail Mary at the end of the Vikings game. By the way, he was incredible in that loss as well, as the only two times the offense was stopped, Equanimeous St. Brown had consecutive passes go off his hands and then the refs for no apparent reason picked up the flag on a blatant pass interference against Robert Tonyan inside the red-zone. Rodgers leads the league with seven completions of 40+ yards and right now Drew Lock is the only starter in the league with a higher mark in yards beyond the sticks (0.9) – which when you look at the rest of the numbers isn’t always an endorsement for the second-year QB, as Lock has three more INTs on 100 less attempts. And outside of Davante Adams – who has missed some time – Rodgers hasn’t really been able to rely on any of his receivers, as they are tied for the most passes dropped at 18, even though the other two QBs with that number have played one more game than Green Bay. Notables:Josh Allen & Tom Brady
Offensive Player of the Year:
Of course, you could name the same three candidates from the MVP section here, but I tried to mix things up a little and give you three other names worthy of the award. And that includes only one quarterback. https://preview.redd.it/7bjpxm24nhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e2bb387c610fbc6d543f166a0582537bfc07ba6 1. Alvin Kamara I know that this award is often given to quarterbacks as well and it looks odd that Kamara is 16th in the league in rushing (431 yards), but he is averaging five yards per carry and he is also second to only DeAndre Hopkins among all players with 55 catches for an additional 556 yards through the air – so just over 10 yards per grab. Right now he is on pace for 2256 scrimmage yards on right around 20 touches a week, while he would also easily break the NFL record for receiving yards for a running back (1271 over 1191 from Charley Taylor in 1966). And he leads the league not only in scrimmage yards but also percentage of his offense’s yardage (36.5%), while being tied for first with 12 plays of 20+ yards on the season. While he has caught a couple of key wheel routes and can win as a downfield receiver, so far 94.5(!) percent of his receiving yards have come after the catch, constantly bailing out his quarterback by making something happen after checkdowns and ripping off big gains in the screen game. I mean against the Packers he caught 13 of 14 targets for 139 yards and he was the only reason they were in that game in the first place. The explosiveness, the contact balance and the ability get six or seven yards when there should be only three is unmatched. Kamara has scored reached the end-zone seven times and his only fumble, he recovered himself again. He is by far the best player on this Saints offense and the team overall and in the absence of Michael Thomas, he has been asked to shoulder the load for them. Since his lowest output in the season-opener, Kamara has not been held under 119 scrimmage yards in any other week. 2. Kyler Murray While Murray is only 16th among current starters in passing yards per game, only Russell Wilson and by about half a yard Justin Herbert have put up more combined passing and rushing yards at 326.3 a week. Right now, only Joe Burrow and Matt Ryan have been responsible for more combined first downs and touchdowns, and those two have played a full matchup more than the Cardinals and both just won their second games of the season, while Kyler is doing it in service of a 5-2 team, which outside of his own production has averaged less than 100 rushing yards on a weekly basis. As a runner, he leads all NFL players (with double-digit carries) in yards per attempt at 6.7 and 35 of his 65 carries led to first downs or touchdowns (seven TDs). I would not call Arizona’s passing game overly explosive, as Kyler is barely in the top 20 in yards per attempt (7.3), 20+ yard throws (21) and average yards to the sticks (-0.9), but a lot of that has to do with what Kliff Kingsbury wants to do with his Air Raid-based offense, while his QB is tied for second with six throws of 40+ yards and already has an 80-yarder on his resume. Plus, with that guy at the helm, they have the potential to get as hot as pretty much any team out there. Kyler had one really bad game against the Lions, in which Detroit used a lot of different coverages that had them all over the Cardinals route patterns, but #1 has been outstanding the rest of the year and I don’t come away from a lot of games thinking that a lot of his production was served up by the play-calling. I said a couple of weeks that Deshaun Watson is the most elusive quarterback in the league, but nobody is quicker at evading defenders and keeping himself upright. We all love Russell Wilson and his ability to extend plays, but just compare these numbers – Russ has been pressured 79 times and he’s been hit or sacked on 50 of those, Kyler on the other has been pressured 44 times (significantly less due to more of a horizontal passing attack), but he’s only been sacked nine times and taken five more hits (14 total). And Kyler already outdueled Russ on Sunday Night of week seven. 3. Derrick Henry King Henry is once again holding the crown for the league’s rushing leader at this moment. His 775 rushing yards are 123 more than any other player in the league, and while that is in correlation with handling the most carries of all RBs, he still averaging 4.8 yards per attempt, despite being asked to grind away games for the Titans. Right around 30 percent of his touches has resulted in a first down or touchdown (43 total first downs and eight TDs) and about 58 percent of his total yardage has come after contact. Nobody wants to tackle King Henry, because he can plow through 300-pounder defensive linemen at the point of attack and throw DBs around like ragdolls, when he gets around the edge (looking at you, Josh Norman), but at the same time, once he gets rolling, he is as fast as any player on the field, which we saw already when he ripped of an NFL-long 94-yarder against the Texans a couple of weeks ago. The difference between Henry and some of the other franchise backs is that he doesn’t contribute a whole lot in the passing game outside of a few screens (10 catches for 81 yards), but nobody takes on a bigger load than this guy and he really sets the table for everything the Titans do, with the heavy play-action and bootlegs. Usually this guy really starts rolling over the second half of the season, but he has been dominant right from the start this year. When you look at the three games Henry didn’t put 112+ yards on the ground, in two of them the opposing defense totally sold out against the run and Ryan Tannehill completed 75 percent of his passes with seven TDs and no picks, while the team scored 33 and 42 points respectively, and the other one came against the Steelers’ dominant defensive front. On the other hand, he also has the most scrimmage yards in a game all season, when he destroyed the Texans for 264 yards and took over that one overtime drive, to win it. Notables:The three MVP candidates
Defensive Player of the Year:
I think there is pretty clear top three in this one as well and I can honestly see an argument for each one of them to be the pick, but I have stuck my selection (and bet) of a guy I believed would come back even hungrier in 2020. https://preview.redd.it/jztbsyebnhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d42b8d0551d7a5a382c4c2f8cec7ef1a3f506b9 1. Myles Garrett This was my preseason pick for Defensive Player of the Year and similar to Russell Wilson’s MVP campaign, I have been riding this all season long. Myles Garrett is tied for a league-high nine sacks and only two players have hit the opposing quarterback more overall than him. The only two games he didn’t record a sack (the season-opener at Baltimore and this past week against the Raiders), the opposing team ran the ball on 56 and 65 percent respectively and somehow all those sacks he has put up have come in big moments – a strip on Joe Burrow to set up the offense at the Bengals 1-yard line after they were just stopped on fourth down in an eight-point game, another against Washington after the Browns finally extended the lead to more than one score, stripping Dak Prescott when the game was tied at 14 and set off a 27-0 run, setting the offense up in field goal range for their first points in the rematch with Cincinnati and while it won’t be found on the stats sheet, he also directly forced a safety on a throw-away by Philip Rivers to make it a two-score game against the Colts. The only other player that has forced four fumbles just like Myles is Ravens DB Marlon Humphrey, who has become a Peanut Punch specialist – and Garrett has also recovered a couple of those himself, with both of them directly setting up touchdown for the offense from short distance. Plus, he is excellent run-defender, who can yank blockers to the side and makes tackles around the line scrimmage, with only one miss on the season. Myles has grown so much with his technique as a pass-rusher, while obviously having that incredible combination of length and athleticism, but also might have gotten “looser” in his movement and how he can torque his body different ways. And the Browns are now using him as a mismatch against guards on passing downs quite a bit. 2. Aaron Donald Just like he has been the last five years or so, Aaron Donald is right up there with the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year and I would not be surprised at all if he won his third trophy at the end of the season. Donald is tied with Myles Garrett for the league-lead in sacks at nine and he is top five in total pressures (22) and QB hits (13), despite offensive lines sliding his way constantly. We have literally seen this man get triple-teamed and lift All-Pro offensive linemen off their feet, but only T.J. Watt has a higher pass-rush win percentage according to Pro Football Focus (25%). This guy is the only player with a four-sack performance this season and not only does he obviously contribute in a major way himself, but because of the way he gives his teammates one-on-one’s consistently, his Rams only have three other teams in front of them in terms of sacks as unit (26), despite not having a lot of names that you would recognize, outside a questionable former first-rounder in Leonard Floyd. And I just mentioned the only two players with more forced fumbles than Donald (Garrett and Humphrey), who has three himself. He has also recorded seven tackles for loss and only missed one of his 26 tackling attempts. The crazy part with his game is that for all the numbers you can actually see, there’s about twice as many plays he makes that don’t show up anywhere in the records. The only reason I don’t have him at number one is that he has four games without a full sack and that Garrett has been a little more consistent at coming up with those real game-changing plays. Still, AD is clearly right up there. 3. T.J. Watt And then this guy is as complete an edge defender as we have in the league. Watt can set the edge at the point of attack, he can chase ball-carriers down from behind as the unblocked man at the line and this past Sunday against Baltimore, we saw him take both guys at times on those read-option plays. Of his 25 tackles on the season, 12 have resulted in lost yardage, which is tied with teammate Vince Williams for a league-high. As a pass-rusher, Watt is “only” tied for fourth with 6.5 sacks, but his 21 hits on opposing QBs is four more than any other player in the league and the 27 total pressure are three more than the next-closest guy as well, while PFF has him tagged with the highest pass-rush win rate in correlation with that (27%). And he headlines the most destructive pass-rush in the league, as the Steelers defense leads the league with 30 sacks and easily has the highest pressure percentage of any unit out there at a whopping 35.0 percent. Watt has also batted down three passes and picked one off. He can do your classic flat drops or carry guys out of the backfield at times, but he can also stand up and move around the line to blitz from different angles or act as a spy at times. He surprisingly has yet to force a fumble this season, but I can remember right now on the very first play he was on the field against the Titans, a good 20 quarterbacks would have lost the ball in that moment with Watt swiping at it, and since he led the league in that category last season, I have no doubt he will rack up a few of those FFs still.
Offensive Rookie of the Year:
This award has two quarterbacks battling it out at the top right now, with one young star receivers and a couple of running backs – one picked in the first round and the other going undrafted – who are also in the running. https://preview.redd.it/s59hxqbhnhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=1367e2c355593e297cd3e85ba8c94c1f6a3ee3f6 1. Justin Herbert I get that coaches always try to protect their young quarterbacks and want to give them time to learn from the sidelines, but I hope everybody gets that Herbert and Tyrod Taylor aren’t even close to each other. And I have always liked Tyrod as a bridge-starter or game-manager type, but this rookie QB has taken this offense to a completely different level. When you just look at the schedule, you see that the two QBs have the same amount of wins on the season (only one for Herbert against the Jaguars), but in the season-opener the Chargers only put up 16 points against the Bengals, who have given up 28.2 per week from that point on, and L.A. has scored 27.2 points a game since then. It is not Herbert’s fault that his defense has let him down in the second half of games and allowed big comebacks. He took Patrick Mahomes & company to overtime, had his team up 24-7 against the Bucs before a fumble a minute until halftime started turning things around, he outplayed Drew Brees at the Superdome and was inches away in overtime from pulling off a game-tying or -winning drives and before the Bolts defense allowed an epic collapse last Sunday, they were dominating the Broncos 24-3 midway through the third quarter. The way Herbert has opened up the offense with the deep ball is incredible, with two 70+ TDs on the resume already, and he makes the whole field available, after they were very limited before. Among current starters, Herbert is third in passing yards per game (303.3) and second in combined touchdowns per game (3.0), while also being top ten in completion percentage, yards per attempt, quarterback rating and QBR. He is on pace to throw for 4550 yards and 38 touchdowns to go with about 350 rushing yards and five more TDs on the ground, over the course of a 15-game season. Those numbers would shatter all rookie records. 2. Joe Burrow No other team has thrown the ball more than the Bengals (330 pass attempts) and their quarterback leads the league with 221 completions on the season (67% completion percentage). With 11 touchdowns compared to five interceptions, that ratio doesn’t look overly impressive, but he has set up a lot of short rushing TDs, while Cincinnati barely cracks 100 rushing yards per game as a team and only one other squad averages less yards per carry (3.7). Until this past weekend, Burrow was tied with Carson Wentz for the most-sacked quarterbacks in the league, but thanks to a non-existent pass-rush for the Titans, in large part due to the spread-based passing attack the Bengals bring to the table, a clean week has the Bengals QB at “only” 28 sacks so far. However, he has been under the fire all season long, being tied for third with 79 total pressures, despite only eight quarterbacks spending less time in the pocket. And Burrow has yet to complete less than 60 percent of his passes in any game. I know the Bengals were blown out in that one Ravens game, but do we realize that was their only loss by more than one score? They tied the Eagles in a game where Burrow was sacked eight times and hit every other snap, they scored 30+ in their two matchups with the Browns, they were up 21-0 against the Colts in the second quarter and just this past Sunday they beat the recently 5-1 Titans by double-digits. And I would argue their rookie quarterback is by far the biggest reason for it. They are already guaranteed a better record this year than last season, as we are halfway through the season – and they are getting better every week. This guy is the future in Cincinnati. Now they just need to protect him and get that defense going. 3. Justin Jefferson I know that Odell Beckham Jr. was the only wide receiver to be named Offensive Rookie of the Year in the last ten years and I wouldn’t put anybody on the same level as that historic season, but since then this is the most impressive start we have seen for a rookie receiver. Through seven games, Jefferson has caught 31 of his 40 targets for 563 yards and three touchdowns. That puts him 12th among all receivers in yards per game, while having recorded a league-high 14.1 yards per target and 22 of his 31 grabs has resulted in a fresh set of downs. After a rather slow start, with five catches for 70 yards through the first two weeks, Jefferson came onto the scene with 71-yarder against the Titans and now already has three games of 100+ receiving yards, while only having played 74 percent of the snaps on the season. Jefferson has only dropped one pass and not fumbled once, while Kirk Cousins when targeting the rookie receiver, has a passer rating of over 100 despite having thrown four picks and I wouldn’t put a single one of those on the receiver definitely, as on a couple of them there was a linebacker dropping underneath a deep crosser that Cousins stared down the whole way, a badly underthrown pass into a tight window and on another one he and the rookie wideout clearly weren’t on the same page in terms of the route he was supposed to run. Through eight weeks, Jefferson is Pro Football Focus has the second-highest grade among all NFL receivers. I have always been a fan of Adam Thielen and he is Cousins’ favorite target, but to determine who opposing teams believe is more dangerous, all I have to do is watch the Packers put Jaire Alexander on the first-year man for almost the whole game last week. Notables:James Robinson & Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Defensive Rookie of the Year:
For the defensive side of the ball, this rookie selection was a little tougher, because there are a few guys that have filled the stat sheet across the board, but you don’t have those typical front-runners with a lot of sacks or interceptions, which usually take home the honors. https://preview.redd.it/6feckarlnhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=99ff1c8f00a81987ead19327f1465ccee3e50f17 1. Antoine Winfield Jr. When I look at who I believe is the best pro player among all defensive rookies already, I would say this is the name that comes to mind. Tampa Bay’s defensive scheme isn’t simple. They ran a lot of different coverages, they can blitz anybody and there are a lot of rules that you have to understand as a member of that unit. Winfield has come in and looked him he belonged from the first time he touched the field. The rookie safety has played 515 of 522 snaps on defense and he shows up quite a bit in the box score. He has recorded 31 solo tackles and only two misses all season long, showing off what a dependable tackler he is in space. He has intercepted a passe and broken up four more, plus he has forced fumble. And call it P.I. or not, he denied a two-point conversion to potentially tie the game this past Monday Night against the Giants. To go with that, he has asked to blitz 29 times in Todd Bowles’ pressure-heavy scheme, resulting in two sacks and three extra hits on the quarterbacks. What made me a big fan of Winfield coming out of Minnesota was the versatility he presents and the fact he played so much bigger than his size would indicate. The Bucs coaching staff has utilized a lot around the line of scrimmage a lot and I love how he drives on routes in quarters coverage. He gas been “credited” with giving up just over 200 yards and two touchdowns, to go with a passer rating of 114.4 in coverage, but I think about half of that production came on two plays in the Chargers game, once with him ending up as the closest defender on a deep bomb, when the other safety should have actually opened up and then on a scramble drill play, where Keenan Allen uncovered late against him. 2. Patrick Queen Baltimore has a rich tradition of middle linebackers, but not so much when it comes to LSU players, with Ozzie Newsome as an Alabama alumn not having drafted a single Tigers player in over 20 years as the Ravens GM. This year, with Eric DeCosta calling the shots, they wanted to bring in a dynamic player to put in the middle of their defense and when Patrick Queen surprisingly was still on the board when they were making their first-round pick this past April, it didn’t matter which college he came from. Queen was immediately put in the starting lineup and he has been filling up the stat sheet from the start. In seven games, he has recorded 48 combined tackles, four of them for loss, two sacks to go with five more QB hits, two fumbles forced and recovered, including a long scoop-and-score. His speed at the second level to string guys out to the sideline or get to the quarterback on delayed blitzes has been a big reason this defense has gone to a higher level in 2020. Of course, he is still a first-year player and not perfect. Queen has already missed 11 tackles and there have been some moments where the rookie seemed a little confused. Two that come to mind right away – the Chiefs running that double-swing fake before throwing the TE screen over the middle, where they had Queen’s head spinning and then last week against the Steelers, where I’m pretty sure he should have covered tight-end Eric Ebron in man, but thought he had the back and that allowed Ebron to easily score on a shallow crosser from 18 yards out. He is learning and we have already seen moments, where he just sees it and goes, shutting down plays before they can even get going, while he obviously has a knack for the ball. 3. Jeremy Chinn One of the small-school prospects I loved in this most recent draft was this 6’3”, 220-pound safety from Southern Illinois, who put up ridiculous numbers at the scouting combine and showed incredible potential on film. So far, he has put up 38 solo tackles – most by any rookie in the league, has intercepted one pass and broken up another five. Chinn has been all over the field, with his ability to cover ground and erase angles for the ball-carrier. One of the two or three negatives I had about him and why I had him around the top 50 and not even higher was the ability to process information post-snap, to not just have his talent take him to the ball, but also the anticipation and identification of certain keys to react quickly. I believe Matt Rhule, defensive coordinator Phil Snow and that entire staff has done an outstanding job of simplifying Chinn’s assignments and just letting him around and make plays. Once he sees something happening in front of him, he can get there as fast as pretty much any player in the league and the Panthers have allowed that talent to flourish. The biggest issue for him are the ten missed tackles so far, but he’ll clean that up as well. Through eight weeks, Chinn has played 96 percent of the defensive snaps and been a fixture on the punt team as well, where he had a huge first-down run against the Falcons in last week’s Thursday Night game on a fake. As he gets more comfortable in the system, I expect him to become a bigger part of the pass-rush, because his closing speed as a blitzer is just absurd. Notables:Jaylon Johnson & Julian Blackmon
Comeback Player of the Year:
As I say every year when making my preseason picks, this is the most vague award of the list, because there are so many different ways you can look at it – players who were hurt for most/all of last season, guys who had a few off-years and then those who were out of the league altogether. https://preview.redd.it/azaaj8wonhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b8d658e734d0fbb7dab6ce01769d86131a0227f 1. Ben Roethlisberger Roethlisberger is completing 67.9 percent of his passes and while he is only 25th in passing yards per game (232.6), a lot of that has to do with being part of a 7-0 team with the best defense in the league and trying to run down the clock late in games a lot of times. Big Ben has been really steady for Pittsburgh, not having completed less than 63 percent of his passes yet for a total of 15 touchdowns compared to only four interceptions, with five games that didn’t include any turnovers from him. Of those four picks, one came on a wobbling 50-50 pass, where Juju immediately called for pass interference, one came in the end-zone on the final play before halftime and another was batted up by a defensive lineman right into the hands of a linebacker. The Steelers are tied for third with converting 49.5 percent of their third downs and even though their run game is about average, they control the clock primarily with the short passing game, where their quarterback gets everybody involved. And when his team has needed him most Big Ben has come through, with two go-ahead touchdown drives in fourth quarters and taking over on crucial drives, with no-huddle attacks and almost exclusively going in the shotgun to spread it around. In the battle of unbeatens at Tennessee, the Steelers were up 24-7 at halftime, with Roethlisberger converting all four third downs with nine or more yards to go. This past Sunday in Baltimore in a huge AFC North clash with the Ravens, the Steelers offense could not get anything done for the first half plus, with Lamar Jackson gifting his opponents 14 points directly off turnovers, but when Pittsburgh needed to a couple of touchdowns to go ahead, their quarterback came through, as they threw the ball on 15 of those 18 plays and the three runs resulted in -1 yard (+ a touchdown). To do this after a season-ending elbow injury on his throwing arm last year is impressive. 2. Jason Verrett For this one we have to go all the way back to like 2015 and even before that. Jason Verrett was a first-team All-American selection in 2013 and then a first-round pick for the Chargers coming out of TCU. After showing a ton of potential in an injury-riddled rookie campaign, he became a Pro Bowler in his second season with three interceptions and 12 more passes deflected, including a pick-six. The next two years, he only played a combined five games with consecutive ACL injuries and then missed all of 2018 with a torn Achilles. His bad injury luck would follow him to San Francisco however, as he would go on IR with an ankle injury shortly after signing with the 49ers last year. Now, finally in 2020 he is back on the field and balling out. Verrett had a big interception in the end-zone against the Rams a couple of weeks ago and three PBUs the rest of the season, having started the last six games. However, it is the more advanced stats about what the veteran corner has done in coverage that are really impressive. On 25 targets, he has given up just 123 yards and no touchdowns. Plus, he is a highly dependable tackler, having only missed one attempt all season and holding opposing receivers to just 32 yards after the catch. The 49ers had major issues with their corners for large stretches of the season, as Richard Sherman has been on IR since week one and the with Emmanuel Moseley also missing some time, those other guys on the boundary have gotten roasted in some of their matchups. Not with Verrett. He has easily been a top ten player at his position so far and I don’t know how you can take him out of the starting lineup, once they have Sherm and Moseley back together. 3. Aldon Smith I thought long and hard about putting Rob Gronkowski here, because after Gronk look like his feet were stuck in mud early on, he and Tom Brady are not operating at a really high level again, and it almost seems like the big tight-end got his confidence back. However, I decided to go with somebody who was not one but five(!) years out of the league and as we all know, this award is a lot about the stories of these players. When Aldon Smith was drafted in 2011, it was immediately between him and Von Miller as the best young edge rusher in the league, and Smith out-produced the Broncos All-Pro with 14 and 19.5 sacks in his first two years, before he entered a rehabilitation center midway through 2013 season, when he has on path for another one of those years. The two following seasons, he looked like a shell of himself in San Francisco and then Oakland, as his mind clearly wasn’t right, with several off-the-field issues leading two suspensions that cost him the 2016 and ’17 seasons. Now, all the way in 2020, he is back with the Dallas Cowboys and especially early on he looked like a dominant player on the edge. Smith is now at five sacks on the season, with three of those coming against the Seahawks, as he was the only defensive player that kept his team in the game, with additional hits on the quarterbacks. To go with that, he has made some nice tackles in the run game, fighting off blocks and getting hands on the ball-carrier. He has cooled off a little bit these last few weeks, but the lack of production is more a product of how bad the Cowboys defense has been as a whole and long much they’ve been on the field. If he was on a team right now, that allowed him to rush in obvious passing situation, he could potentially be in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation. Notables:Rob Gronkowski & Alex Smith
Play of the Year:
https://preview.redd.it/e7hgczoznhx51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=367a15768a5e30164afcabc575cbf2e6700ff75f 1. D.K. Metcalf chase-down tackle on Budda Baker after the INT One of the greatest hustle plays you will ever see and it started a meme fest on the internet. 2. Derrick Henry 94-yard touchdown run vs. Texans The combination of speed and power is freakish for this dude. He tore Houston a new one. 3. Odell Beckham Jr. going 60 yards on the reverse vs. Cowboys Of couese bad effort and angles by the Dallas defense, but this looked like Giants Odell.
All-Pro teams:
Since this is not about building a team or anything like that, I just went to the most used personnel sets for either side of the ball – 11 personnel and nickel defense – and filled up those spots with who I believe have been the best players at those positions. So there is differentiating between left and right tackle, 4-3 defensive end and 3-4 were put together as “EDGE” and there are just any two stand-up linebackers inserted.
Offense:
LT David Bakhtiari LG Quenton Nelson C Corey Linsley RG Wyatt Teller RT Duane Brown Second team:Laremy Tunsil, Michael Onwenu, Jason Kelce, Gabe Jackson & Ryan Ramczyk WR DeAndre Hopkins WR D.K. Metcalf WR Davante Adams TE Travis Kelce Second team:Calvin Ridley, Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson & George Kittle QB Russell Wilson RB Alvin Kamara Second team:Patrick Mahomes & Derrick Henry
Defense:
DE Myles Garrett DT Aaron Donald DT Chris Jones DE T.J. Watt Second team:Khalil Mack, Jeffery Simmons, Cam Heyward & Calais Campbell LB Fred Warner LB Lavonte David Second team:Darius Leonard & K.J. Wright CB Kyle Fuller CB Jaire Alexander NB Marlon Humphrey Second team:James Bradberry, Jalen Ramsey & Jason Verrett FS Minkah Fitzpatrick SS Budda Baker Second team:Jessie Bates & Antoine Winfield Coach of the Year in the comments!! If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/11/05/nfl-2020-midseason-awards/ Also make sure you check out my detailed recap of the NFL's week eight on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXx87t1Dcvk
[Game Preview] Week 10 - Philadelphia Eagles(3-4-1) @ New York Giants (2-5)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1) vs New York Giants (2-7)
I don’t know what to say about the NFC East Matchups. The entire division is struggling with major injuries to key players and the division is by far the worst in the NFL, but the divisional games have all been competitive with the last matchup between these two being decided by a single point. The Eagles will show up to this matchup a little bit healthier especially in weapons for Carson who will have Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, Alshon Jeffrey and Jalen Raegor for this matchup, all of whom were out last game. Carson was able to throw for 300+ yards last game, he should be able to build on that number with an added number of weapons. The Giants were able to put up points last week vs the Football Team and pull out their second W of the season. The Eagles will need to pressure Jones and force him into turning the ball over like the first matchup and the Eagles need to be able to take advantage of those turnovers. Carson said he reviewed his turnovers in the first half of the season and said he knows he needs to protect the ball better, he needs to prove it this week coming off the bye. If Carson protects the football, the Eagles should be able to move the ball against the bewildered Giants and cruise to an easy win, but if he continues to turn the ball over like the first half, I predict another sloppy NFCE matchup that goes down to the wire. Go Birds!
FOX will broadcast Sunday’s game to a regional audience. Kevin Kugler will handle the play-by-play duties and Chris Spielman will provide analysis. Laura Okmin will report from the sidelines.
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (44th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
WIP-FM
94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA
WCTO-FM
96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey
WENJ-FM
97.3 FM
Levittown, PA
WBCB-AM
1490 AM
Northumberland, PA
WEGH-FM
107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA
WPPA-AM
1360 AM
Reading, PA
WEEU-AM
830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA
WEJL-FM
96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WAFL-FM
97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WEJL-AM
630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD
WBAX-AM
1240 AM
Williamsport, PA
WBZD-FM
93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE
WDEL-FM/AM
101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA
WSOX-FM
96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo and Bill Kulik will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location
Station
Frequency
Philadelphia, PA
LA MEGA
105.7 FM
Allentown, PA
WSAN
1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ
WIBG
1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Giants Radio
Giants Radio Bob Papa season to handle play-by-play duties for the broadcast. Former Giant Carl Banks will provide color and analysis during the game and former Giant Howard Coss will report from the sidelines.
National Radio
Sports USA will broadcast the game nationally with Josh Appel handling the play by play and Brandon Noble will provide analysis.
October 15th, 1933 at the Polo Grounds in Upper Manhattan, New York, NY. New York Giants 56 - Philadelphia Eagles 0
Points Leader
The New York Giants lead the Philadelphia Eagles (3449-3389)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 8-1 vs. the New York Giants
Joe Judge: 0-1 vs. the Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs. Joe Judge: Pederson leads 1-0
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Giants: 7-1
Daniel Jones: Against Eagles: 0-2
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Daniel Jones: Wentz leads 2-0.
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead the Giants: 12-6
Record @ MetLife Stadium: Eagles lead the Giants: 7-2
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 19 - Giants No. 28
Record
Eagles: 3-4-1
Giants: 2-7
Last Meeting
Thursday, October 22, 2020
Eagles 22 - Giants 21
The Eagles faced off against the division rival Giants who were coming off their first win of the season and were looking for a 2nd for first year coach Joe Judge. The Eagles have moved to 2-4-1 on the season after rallying to defeat the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football, 22-21. After New York gave its best punch of the night a 97-yard touchdown drive headlined by Daniel Jones to go up 21-10 with just over six minutes to play, Philadelphia scored 12 unanswered points to earn the win. Carson Wentz led a 71-yard touchdown drive to give the Eagles the lead with just 40 seconds to play after connecting with running back Boston Scott on an 18-yard reception. Along with the comeback, he finished his night with 359 yards passing, two touchdowns and one interception while completing passes to eight different Eagles receivers. He also ran for 15 yards and a touchdown. As for the Giants, they mustered just 325 yards of offense and struggle to protect Daniel Jones throughout the contest.
Wentz led to his fourth straight must-win game and the team finished an elimination game without seven starters on offense. Already missing three starting wide receivers for the fourth straight game, the Eagles also began the game without Pro Bowl tight end Zach Ertz and right tackle Lane Johnson. Then they lost running back Miles Sanders and three-time Pro Bowl right guard Brandon Brooks in the first half. But Scott, Josh Perkins, Greg Ward, Deontay Burnett and Robert Davis combined for 16 catches on 25 targets, 225 yards receiving, 54 yards rushing and four TDs. The five players were cut a combined eight times by four teams since Aug. 31. Carson Wentz threw for 289 yards, including a 24-yard TD pass to Perkins, who was promoted from the practice squad on Nov. 30. It was the Eagles’ 7th straight win vs the Giants and clinched the NFCE. Giants coach Pat Shurmur was fired the following Monday.
Giants - For the second time in four weeks, New York beat Washington on Sunday, holding on for a 23-20 victory at FedEx Field. It was another close win for the Giants over their NFC East rival, after earning a 20-19 victory in the first meeting between the two teams in Week 6. New York built a 17-point lead by halftime, and although Washington made things interesting in the second half, it wasn't enough to come back against the Giants, who relied on early success from their offense and big plays from their defense.
Connections
Eagles Special assistant to the general manager Connor Barwin played 1 season with the Giants in 2018.
Giants coach Joe Judge is from Philadelphia, PA.
Giants Defensive Backs coach Jerome Henderson played one season for the Eagles in 1995.
Giants RB Dion Lewis was drafted by the Eagles in the 5th round of the 2011 draft and played 2 seasons for them before being traded to the Browns
Giants WR Golden Tate played half a season with the Eagles in 2018 after being traded by the Lions.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles
Giants
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
LS Rick Lovato (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
SS Malcom Jenkings (1st Alt)
OT Lane Johnson (1st Alt
General
Referee: Clay Martin
The Eagles have won 8 consecutive games against the Giants (in-cluding the 22-21 victory at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 7), as well as 12 of the previous 13 games in the series. Philadelphia is 89-86-2 (.508) all-time vs. N.Y. Giants (since 1933).
Since being promoted to the Eagles’ active roster in Week 4, Tra-vis Fulgham ranks 5th among NFL WRs with 87.0 receiving yards per game, trailing only Davante Adams (120.8), DK Metcalf (98.2), Julio Jones (91.4) and Stefon Diggs (87.5) (min. 4 games).
Brandon Graham, who ranks 4th on the Eagles’ all-time sacks list with 58.0 career sacks, is tied for the 4th-most sacks (7.0 - 4.0 in his last 3 games) in the NFL this season, behind Aaron Donald(9.0), Myles Garrett (9.0) and Trey Hendrickson (7.5).
The Eagles defense ranks 3rd in the NFL in sacks (28.0), trailing only Pittsburgh (32.0) and Tampa Bay (29.0).
Additionally, Philadelphia ranks 4th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (209.4) as well as 10th in both total defense (340.1 ypg) and opponent third-down efficiency (39.6%).
Draft Picks
Eagles
Giants
WR Jalen Raegor
OT Andrew Thomas
QB Jalen Hurts
S Xavier McKinney
LB Davion Taylor
OT Matt Peart
S K’Von Wallace
CB Darney Holmes
OT Jack Driscoll
G Shane Lemieux
WR John Hightower
LB Cam Brown
LB Shaun Bradley
LB Carter Coughlin
WR Quez Watkins
T.J. Brunson
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
CB Chris Williamson
LB/DE Casey Toohill
LB Tae Crowder
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles
Giants
S Will Parks
CB James Bradberry
DT Javon Hargrave
LB Blake Martinez
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman
TE Levine Toilolo
CB Darius Slay
LB Kyler Fackell
OT Cameron Fleming
SS Nate Ebner
QB Colt McCoy
RB Dion Lewis
DB Dravon Askew-Henry
DT Austin Johnson
TE Eric Tomlinson
LS Casey Kreiter
CB Logan Ryan
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles
Giants
S Malcom Jenkins
QB Eli Manning
CB Ronald Darby
S Michael Thomas
RB Jordan Howard
WR Cody Latimer
WR Nelson Agholor
LB Deone Buccanon
OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai
OL Mike Remmers
LB Kamu Grugler-Hill
CB Antonio Hamilton
RB Darren Sproles
DT Timmy Jernigan
LB Nigel Bradham
Milestones
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (109) needs 3 passing TDs to move up to 4th on the Eagles all-time passing yards list moving ahead of QB Norm Snead.
Eagles QB Carson Wentz (987) needs 13 yards for 1000 career rushing yards.
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox (50.5) needs 4 sacks to move up to 5th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DE Hugh Douglas
Eagles DE Vinny Curry (28.5) needs 1 sacks to move up to 18th on the Eagles all-time sack list tying DT Jerome Brown
Giants QB Daniel Jones (4905) needs 95 passing yards for 5000 career passing yards.
Stats to Know
Shane Lemieux’s Education
Rookie OG Shane Lemieux has facial hair. Fletcher Cox has a mustache. And that’s about as much as RG Shane Lemieux will be able to mirror DT Fletcher Cox. Due to Will Hernandez’s injury, Monsieur Lemieux is in at Guard and this week will prove challenging for him, to say the least. According to PFF, the greatest NFL player evaluation service in the history of evaluation services, not a single other OLman with appreciable snaps has offered a lower Pass Block grade than him, at 12.1. For him to achieve that, while still only allowing 8 pressures (over 2 weeks: 5 & 3 pressures), is impressive. To do that you have to be monumentally bad and he can’t afford that sort of game against the Eagles’ Defensive Line.
Matchups to Watch
Carson Wentz vs. Competency
The biggest issue facing the Eagles in the short term isn't the injuries - it is the QB. That's my QB, a guy I've long defended and still believe in, but BAE has me wavering. The simple fact is Carson Wentz is a bottom 3 QB in the NFL this year and that's his fault. From accuracy, to turnovers, to shit pocket management, etc, Wentz has been trailer trash in 2020 aside from like 2, maybe 3 games. Yes, the roster has been decimated. Yes, coaching has been wildly unimpressive. However, Wentz can't take care of business irrespective of the situation around him. Backup receivers don't cause inaccurate passes. Backup offensive linemen don't make him hold onto the ball too long to where he gets hit and fumbles. No one is making him skip back and forth over the line of self-destruction and aggression. Wentz is doing that on his own. He obviously isn't taking his own advice when he says he has to take care of the ball and whatever coaching points are given to him during the week are going in one ear and out of the other. He's a 5th year pro playing worse than his rookie year. That's on him. There needs to be a come to Jesus moment with Wentz where he gets right. The Eagles can be competitive in every game they play when the QB is playing at a competent - forget high - level. Carson Wentz has shown all of us this year that his ceiling is still quite high at its peaks: the first game against the Giants on their last two drives. He's also shown his league-worst floor: SNF against Dallas. Long term and short term, Wentz must raise his floor. He doesn't need to be a hero and save the team from their sins each and every play like he seemingly tries to. FEW QBs CAN. And most don't. Steady play from him will go a long way. Right now, the coaches are calling an offensive game plan that is weak and scared of their QB. Why would they do anything different? How can anyone trust this guy not to continue to blow games? The fact is the Eagles will win this game with a clean game from their QB. It's just a crapshoot if he does.
Eagles Offensive Line vs. Giants Army of Defensive Tackles
The Giants have a really good group of interior defensive lineman and we would know since they kicked our ass in the first matchup this season. The Eagles were absent Isaac Seumalo and Brandon Brooks in that one and it showed. There is a possibility we'll have Seumalo back for this one and that would be a huge addition to an overmatched offensive line. I don't want to belittle the work of the Eagles backups and Jeff Stoutland especially since they've done an admiral job given all of the injuries; it's just undeniable the Eagles are overmatched in the trenches here, especially on the interior. Every healthy body helps. As we've seen with Wentz this year, he is a mess under pressure and navigating a muddy pocket. He'll still likely have these issues on Sunday but hopefully less so than the first matchup. The return of Seumalo and possibly Lane Johnson will also go a long way to helping the run game provide any sort of production for the offense. The Eagles prefer winning with their OL and DL; this year has been a struggle for the OL but not a complete disaster that we expected. We just need the talent to return in order to improve.
Eagles Weapons vs Giants Secondary
Perhaps I was more bearish on the Giants secondary outside of Bradberry in the first match up; I still don't think it is a very good unit, but the defensive side of the ball for the Giants is far from the biggest issue with this team. The Eagles will have Miles Sanders, Jalen Reagor, and Dallas Goedert for this game when all three were unavailable in the first contest. All three pair well with Giant-killer Boston Scott. The Eagles have enough weapons to really attack the Giants defense if they get quality play out of their QB. This Giants defense still struggles in coverage outside of Bradberry, especially in the middle of the field, which leads to a favorable outlook for Goedert. A functioning offense will take a lot of pressure off the defense and put the Eagles in the rare position of having a favorable game script.
Eagles Defensive Line vs Giants Offensive Line
This is always something to monitor for the Eagles as they only have one good cover guy on defense in Darius Slay. The Eagles struggle to match up against defenses in man coverage because they don't have the personnel to cover anyone other than Darius Slay. They struggle in zone as they don't have smart, instinctive players with awareness in zone. The LBs and Safeties are all bad in coverage. Competent offenses and QBs always expose this weakness for the Eagles and that won't change until the talent and coaching changes on the defense. This week the Eagles have another favorable matchup for their defense in Daniel Jones. Jones is a one read, timing QB, that struggles at the one thing he is supposed to be good at. Like Wentz, he is a turnover machine and holds his offense back mightily. The only difference between the two is Jones was at no point considered a top 10 QB. Even without Barkley and possibly Golden Tate, the Giants have more than enough weapons to cook the Eagles defense. Slay played a really good game in their first matchup locking down Slayton, but we saw Sterling Shepard obliterate Jalen Mills. Shepard is a good receiver, so it wasn't a high bar for him to clear in that matchup, but they can make you pay. The Eagles defensive MVP in that contest was Evan Engram; he had a tipped pass that led to an Eagles INT and a killer drop that likely would have ended the game, preventing the comeback. For all of the Giants struggles, the Eagles coverage unit simply doesn't offer enough resistance against the Giants weapons. It comes down to how much disruption the Eagles defensive line can cause, which is par for the course. The Giants offensive line has been an absolute mess this season but is coming off a great game against the Redskins vaunted defensive front. Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox continue to play at high levels. Josh Sweat has been pretty good this year. Derek Barnett is the same as usual. Lastly, Malik Jackson will return to the line up and he has been an under-the-radar stud for the Eagles this year. They also need to have their marquee free agent acquisition, Javon Hargrave, make an impact. They'll need all of these guys to play well to ensure they keep the Giants weapons in line since we know the Eagles secondary struggles stopping nosebleeds.
https://preview.redd.it/k4qs3l2pg5k51.jpg?width=900&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=25b7421d2ef3ec043dc670d01b3d28e9eee2be8c Now that we are close to a lot of people’s fantasy drafts, I wanted to hand out some names that I frequently end up with when I do mocks, just because I have them higher in my rankings. So these are players, who present value based on their ADP (average draft position), all as an average between the three biggest platforms for fantasy football – NFL.com, ESPN and Yahoo. That’s as of August 20th, with the first two having a full-PPR scoring system and the last one being set to .5PPR. They also all have a standard lineup of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 DEF and 1 K. I had to wait until now, so that the draft data is representative of what people actually think of these players, especially with so many mocks having the majority of users set as auto-picks and distort the results. So I will talk about what I like about these players heading into 2020, maybe a couple of concerns and talk a little bit about what I look at them as, compared to the where people are selecting them in their mock drafts. I listed three guys for every position that fills one spot in your standard lineup (QB, TE, DEF) and five for running back and wide receiver respectively. Oh, and I’m not doing kickers here – just pick one from the high-scoring team and that you know has a proven track record of converting on his opportunities. Here are some of my favorite value picks: https://preview.redd.it/8ju88dnrg5k51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=41cfe8bb0deb4bcf44b29e0355e72359017b52fc
Quarterbacks:
Tom Brady ADP – 79.57 (QB9) This seems weird to put a name here that is discussed as probably the greatest of all time and who hasn’t been on my radar as a fantasy option for a long time (especially since I usually pick my QBs very late), but I think there has never as much value with Tom Brady as this upcoming season. TB12 was QB12 last season with a broken-down Julian Edelman, who led the league in dropped passes, to go with a former first-round bust in Philip Dorsett, an undrafted rookie in Jakobi Meyers and a Mohamed Sanu, who looked like one of the worst in-season acquisitions of 2019, as the three next-most productive receivers, combining for less than 1000 yards. To go along with that he had what looks like a bad first-round choice in N’Keal Harry and the league’s least productive tight-end room. Now he is in Tampa Bay, where they have the premiere receiving duo in the game with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, a three-headed monster at tight-end, some interesting backs and pretty much a push as far as the O-line goes, while playing for a coach that is much more interesting in pushing the ball downfield. While having to learn a new system after two decades of being in New England and knowing every little intricacy about it will be a challenge no matter how long you’ve been around the league, just the sheer improvement in weapons and the increased chances to go down the field make me believe he will finisher multiple spots higher than he did in 2019. Brady has gone up quite a bit these last few weeks, but at the end of the eighth round, I think he is still a value pick. I personally have him about a round higher than that and when I do mocks, where I have my two starting RB and WR spots, my flex and one of each on the bench secured, this is a guy I end up with on quite a few occasions – even though this usually is the earliest I think about picking a QB, if nobody just falls right into my lap. Daniel Jones ADP – 139.50 (QB20) A name that already was controversial at the time of the actual draft and seems to be a little controversial in this discussion as a fantasy option as well is Daniel Jones. While there are some concerns, that I will get to in a second, let me give you some numbers. In terms of average points per start (12), only ten quarterbacks put up better numbers than Jones did last season. His 18.98 points in those starts were better than what Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady or Kyler Murray were able to put together. He had three different games with 4+ touchdowns and no picks (Lions, Jets, Washington) and you can’t overlook his effectiveness as a runner. Jones missed out by five carries to reach that 50-mark, but among the ones who did, he would have finished behind only Lamar Jackson with 6.2 yards per rushing attempt. He put up all those numbers despite having a banged up Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram being out for most of the time and getting sacked 38 times on 459 attempts. Now, he was highly inconsistent as a rookie, with those three games of 28+ fantasy points and not reaching 15 in any of the other contests, and his ten fumbles lost not only limited his opportunity to add to the scoring, but also directly lowered his total in the end. With that being said, I still think the offensive line will be better than it was a year ago and Jones’ top five options in the passing game will be healthy at the same time, at least for the start of 2020, which was never the case in year one for him. There are some guys like Darius Slayton, who I expect to break out in his second season, and while new offensive coordinator Jason Garrett will build on the run game, he could also involve his QB more in that area, similar to what they did in Dallas with Dak Prescott for the last few years. Drew Lock ADP – 146.43 (QB23) Before I talk about any of these numbers – the sample size for Drew Lock as a rookie was pretty small. He started the last five games of 2019 and averaged 13.6 points a week, with three games right around that number and two outliers – a 24-point affair at Houston, when he threw 3 TDs in the first half alone in an upset victory, and a 6.6-point blunder in a snowstorm at Kansas City. That is not necessarily something to get super-excited about and I don’t love some of the hype Lock has been receiving this offseason, but it doesn’t yet reflect in his fantasy ADP. The highest he is ranked on any of these platforms is 22nd (ESPN). While he did already have Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant as a rookie, the latter despite being the most productive rookie tight-end, heavily fluctuated with his weekly output, putting up 159 combined yards in two of those weeks and 19 combined in the other three. He will likely take another step, when you look at the history of the position. And now you replace DeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick, who caught just 53 percent of the targets their way and averaged 6.2 yards per targets, with two stud rookies. Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy was my top-ranked receiver in the draft and create a dependable target due his highly advanced route-running and Penn State’s K.J. Hamler opens up the offense with his blazing speed, while being a nightmare to tackle in open space as part of RPOs for example. Even though Pat Shurmur didn’t last long as a head coach for the Giants, I still like what he can do for a young quarterback, in terms of forcing the opposition to defend the entire field and running more spread looks, which Lock is used to from college. Something Lock had issues with in year one is not accounting for roaming defenders, who didn’t have anybody in their area to cover, which will get better with having more people out on the route. And most importantly, I hope he gets encouraged to give his receivers chances down the field, which he was hesitant to at some point as a rookie. Others options I like: Baker Mayfield (ADP 141.07; QB19) Jared Goff (ADP 144.82; QB23) Teddy Bridgewater (ADP 147.62; QB24) https://preview.redd.it/eccs2thzg5k51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a125404f49a59370f76ddf1f456831b1c13ca31
Running backs:
Jonathan Taylor ADP – 70.12 (RB24) There seems to be a split between Jonathan Taylor believers, who watched him dominate college football and think he will take over this Colts backfield, and the ones who think he will be in a committee with Marlon Mack or even like scat-back Nyheim Hines to take on a larger role. Count me as a believer. If I told you there was this running back, who rushed for almost 6200 yards and 50 touchdowns in his three years in college, runs a 4.39 at 225 pounds and was selected in the second round by a team that doesn’t have a long-term answer at quarterback on the roster and could have used some of the edge rushers or corners that went off the board in that range, which role do you think he will have? Marlon Mack is a really solid back and I was actually higher on him than most people coming out of South Florida, but this kid from Wisconsin is special. Last season Mack rushed for 1091 yards in 14 games, yet all but 500 of them came before contact. He finished third in the league in terms of time behind the line of scrimmage at over three seconds and his 4.4 yards per carry, running behind what I believe is the best offensive line in all of football, isn’t overly impressive, plus he has missed at least two games in all three years in the league. There are two concerns for me when it comes to Taylor. First, he didn’t contribute much as a receiver in college, but as a junior he more than doubled his previous output, catching 26 passes for 252 yards and an additional five TDs, while catching the ball pretty natural at the combine as well. The much bigger one is fumbles, as Taylor put the ball on the ground 18 times throughout his time with the Badgers, while Mack didn’t do so once on 261 touches last season. Some of that may have to do with carrying he rock 926 times overall, but that is definitely something to monitor. If he can take care of the ball, even if he doesn’t stay on field on passing downs a whole lot (needs refinement as a protector). I believe he will absolutely be a finalist for Offensive Rookie of the Year, because he has explosiveness, power and big-play ability to make a lot of noise. David Montgomery ADP – 71.64 (RB26) I already talked about Montgomery as one of my breakout candidates for 2020 (LINK). So you can read up on what I like about his skill-set there, but now let’s look at the situation this guy is in. While the Bears doesn’t blow you away with stars all over the field, but they do have one of the most underappreciated receivers in the game in Allen Robinson and another young guy in Anthony Miller, who could be used as a fly sweep threat to bind defenders or as the target on RPOs who will benefit from aggressively flowing defenders in the box. It is a little concerning me that, despite losing Kyle Long, the only addition they made on the offensive line was Germain Ifedi, but they didn’t have Long for three quarters of 2019 either. I think having second-round pick Cole Kmet as your true Y tight-end will help get the Bears backs to the edges at a higher frequency and I think the Matt Nagy offense will be stress defenses more with different personnel sets this season. Most important, Chicago did not add a single running back outside of undrafted free agent Artavis Piece this offseason and I expect Montgomery to take away some of the opportunities Tarik Cohen got last season, who averaged a miniscule 4.7 yards per touch, despite having 79 receptions. So they may use Cohen more as a true slot receiver, but at 5’6”, 190 pounds soaking wet, he will not run as much in-between the tackles (3.3 yards per carry) and Montgomery obviously will get all the goal-line work as well. The second-year back was a missed-tackle machine at Iowa State and when Nagy did allow him to gain some momentum without a defender getting hands on him before he could even cross the line of scrimmage, this guy showed some signs. He can make those subtle adjustements and cuts to not allow defenders to square him up and has the size to break tackles. He is a that I end up with a lot in the middle rounds. Raheem Mostert ADP – 77.58 (RB27) Somebody I was concerned with a few weeks ago, when he asked for a trade and I thought even if he stayed wasn’t on good terms with San Francisco, is Mostert. Now that they have sweetened the pot for him a little bit and he seems to locked in, I think him going in the 8th to 10th round make no sense. Mostert is coming a playoff run, in which he rushed for 336 yards and five touchdowns over three games, but people seem to forget that he also averaged 5.6 yards per rush during the regular season – second-highest behind only Lamar Jackson among players with 100+ attempts – and scored a touchdown every 15th time he touched the ball. Maybe the craziest statistic for Mostert is that in the ten total games he received double-digit carries, only once did he average less than 4.8 yards per attempt. If you look at the offensive line, not only did they their two starting tackles a combined 86 percent of the offensive snaps and I think a healthy Trent Williams could actually be a significant upgrade over what I saw from Joe Staley last year, but they also get starting center Weston Richburg back, who went on IR after week 13. Kyle Shanahan’s offense still goes through the rushing attack, where he is the very best at creating issues for the defense and stacking plays together, and that will be even more apparent without Emmanuel Sanders gone and probably missing Deebo Samuel for a few games early on. The one concern for me is that the Shanahan’s have always had at least two-back systems and there are capable players on that roster, with old friend Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon hopefully finally healthy after he got a big deal from San Fran two years ago and at least one more of the young guys. However, from week 12 on, when he gashed Baltimore’s number-five run defense for 146 yards, Mostert led the team in rush attempts and yards all but once and he has established himself as the top option in my opinion. J.K. Dobbins ADP – 112.92 (RB38) Another rookie that I think gets doubted because of the situation he is in is Dobbins, even though people look at it the wrong way. The Ravens just set a new all-time mark in rushing yards with 3296, which had stood for over 40 years, What people fear about grabbing anybody outside of the top two contributors is that they made up for 72.4 percent of their rushing production over the 15 games they played. However, not only do I believe that number to drop, but even then there were 218 carries left on the table for the rest of the squad. Quarterback Lamar Jackson actually led Baltimore with a QB-record 1206 yards on the ground and while he has shown that he is just a different breed in terms of not even allowing defenders to touch him in one-on-one situations and never showed any weakness getting up after a hit. I think it is very enthusiastic to believe he repeats those 176 carries. The top running back Mark Ingram also had an outstanding season, including 15 touchdowns, but he was on the field for only 45.6 percent of the snaps on offense and now on the wrong side of 30, it’s safe to assume he will give up some of that workload, especially considering there was no special talent on the roster to demand those chances. At the very worst, Dobbins should be able to replace what Gus Edwards did last season and that was worth over 700 rushing yards, averaging 5.3 yards a clip. But this kid was a 2000-yard workhorse at Ohio State last season and I had him as my number two back in the draft, thanks to his combination of explosiveness and strength, while having great ball-security fundamentals. He is a perfect fit in that zone-read heavy offense from shotgun, which he basically played in last season with the Buckeyes and another dual-threat QB. I would not be shocked if he emerges a few weeks into the season and ends up leading this team in rushing. Antonio Gibson ADP – 141.61 (RB50) If you are looking for a really deep sleeper, either if you are a zero-RB advocate or you just have your roster filled out already and just try to grab the player left on the board with the most upside, I think this is a name that has to be on your radar. Antonio Gibson primarily lined up at slot receiver for Memphis last season, but he was most effective taking handoffs and slicing through defenses that way. The explosion he has, the long-speed and that contact balance to bounce off hits are all on a different level to most backs in the league. Now, he has only really run two plays when in the backfield – power and stretch, mostly with another back on the opposite side of the QB in split sets – but he seems to have a natural feel for the position and he can do so much more for an offense. I believe Gibson will be a swiss-army knife for new offensive coordinator Scott Turner, who will move him around the formation, get him the ball on jet sweeps or as a decoy off those or create mismatches with slower defenders, as he comes out of the backfield. I was already pretty high on him, despite having an RB room that went five or six names deep at that point, because I believe he could be on the field for the majority of snaps anyway, thanks to his versatility, but now that Derrius Guice was let go due to some off-the-field stuff, the rookie is even more intriguing to me. When you look at who Washington is bringing back, their leading rushing from 2019 is a 35-year old Adrian Peterson and the next-closest guy is QB Dwayne Haskins with 101. And when you look at receiving yards, after the clear leader in Terry McLaurin, the next two names are RB Chris Thompson, who left in free agency, and Kelvin Harmon, who recently suffered a season-ending injury. So the offense is bound to improve and Gibson should have plenty of opportunities. That is golden for a running back around the 50s. Other options I like: Cam Akers (ADP – 93.32; RB32) Jordan Howard (ADP – 113.18; RB37) Zack Moss (ADP – 131.88; RB47) https://preview.redd.it/vsd9i9r6h5k51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=589f0bd382f4fa2bbbd40c4d88204348ff1cf05e
Wide receivers:
Calvin Ridley ADP – 50.08 (WR17) I’m pretty sure not a lot of people know Calvin Ridley was a top 15 fantasy wide receiver last season based on average points per game (15.2) in non-PPR leagues and top 18 in the two other formats as well. He averaged 9.3 yards per target and converted 47 of his 63 receptions into new first downs, despite his longest catch going for only 36 yards. He is more of a deep threat than that (especially of double-moves) and I would be shocked if he doesn’t have at least one 50-yarder this upcoming season, while also being an excellent red-zone receiver ever since coming into the league. Julio Jones is still the number one receiver on that team and I think the best as an actual player at the position in the world, but the Falcons want to take some pressure off him with Ridley. Atlanta’s top candidate for their WR3 role is Russell Gage, who had a fairly productive second season, but almost half of his yardage total came in the four games he started in place of Ridley. So he will not demand a target share in the same region as Mohamed Sanu, who the Falcons traded away mid-2019. While a lot of it is about Austin Hooper leaving town and I will talk about his replacement in the tight-end segment, this team has by far the highest amount of vacated targets from a year ago at 258. I would not pick guys like Cooper Kupp or Keenan Allen ahead of Ridley and while I have him right around that range among receivers, I have this guy about ten spots higher in my overall rankings, which a full round later in those stages of a draft presents excellent value. I thought the Falcons number two could make that Juju Smith-Schuster jump in his second season, but with injuries that might have just been postponed things by one year and we see less of a difference between him and Julio’s numbers in 2020. I think you can book Ridley for a 1000 yards and around double-digit TDs. Stefon Diggs ADP – 65.81 (WR25) This is one I don’t understand at all. Stefon Diggs “only” finished last season as the WR24 in full-PPR formats (18th in non-PPR), but he was within ten points of the guys that own the six spots above him, while missing one game. That was for a Vikings team that finished with the fourth-lowest pass play percentage (51.7%) and was in the bottom-six in terms of plays run per game (60.5). While Buffalo didn’t pass the ball at an immensely higher rate (about four percent more), they finished top ten in plays run, as they switched to a more up-tempo, 11 personnel attack – and that was without having a true number one and in the process not an ideal two. Diggs finished last season with the second-highest yards per target (12.0) and third in terms of percentage of his team’s air yardage, as the premiere deep threat in all of football. The one real concern here is that Josh Allen was one of the worst deep-ball thrower statistically last season, completing only 24.1 percent of his passes travelling 20+ yards through the air – dead-last according to Pro Football Focus- With that being said, a lot of that had to do with not having that guy, who can create separation vertically, with John Brown not showing that extra gear to gain a step on his defender and nobody else on the roster to average over eight yards per target with at least 15 grabs. Allen is still obviously not the most precise passer in the NFL and he has even more room to grow as a decision-maker at times, but having that guy who can streak downfield on go and post routes – especially in the mold Minnesota used him last season as that backside target on bootlegs – will open up the offense in a major way and Brian Daboll will encourage him to let it fly a few times each week to just let the defense know they need to account for it. I know I’m higher than pretty much anybody, but Diggs is my WR14 and a mid-fourth round pick for me. Terry McLaurin ADP – 70.93 (WR26) A second-year receiver I like a whole lot is this guy from Washington. McLaurin was phenomenal as a rookie. He went for 919 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, despite missing two games and being part of one of the very worst passing attacks in the entire league. His quarterback Dwayne Haskins had a really rough rookie campaign, completing only 58.3 percent of his passes for just over 150 yards per game and the same amount of touchdowns as interceptions (seven). So obviously a lot of this will come down to how much that guy can grow coming into his second season and how that will influence his top target, who he already had built up plenty of chemistry with at Ohio State before joining the same team in the pros. I personally had a top-20 grade on Haskins and think he will make a big jump now that he is in better shape and had a full offseason to watch tape and hopefully be able to work through progressions more quickly. He simply wasn’t ready when thrown out there last season and had a brutal welcome to the NFL. However, even if Ron Rivera decides to go a different route with who lines up under center at some point, the offense should be much more beneficial for the young star receiver. Last season, Washington finished 30th in neutral situation pass rate and 31st in pace, while the Panthers with Scott Turner calling shots were fourth and fifth in those respective categories. Now as the new offensive coordinator in the nation’s capital, I expect this offense to be much more wide open and McLaurin will be his new version of D.J. Moore in that attack, who went for almost 1200 yards in 15 games last year. Right now this kid is going anywhere from the sixth to the ninth round, depending on the platform you use, and I think he should be a fourth-rounder, simply because of the changes offensively and the fact he is their clear-cut number one option. Marvin Jones ADP – 111.03 (WR39) One of the most overlooked receivers this year to me is Marvin Jones. This guy is going between wide receiver 36 and 42 depending on the platform, despite having finished 15th in average fantasy points in PPR-formats last season. Now, he has missed ten combined games over the last two seasons, but in the three years prior he missed only one total game and the last time he played a full 16 contests (2017), he led the league with 18.0 yards per reception. Since coming to Detroit, Jones’ average receptions per game have gone up every single season and over these last three years, he has scored half a touchdown per week. Obviously Kenny Golladay is and will remain the top target in that offense and you would assume the chances for second-year tight-end T.J. Hockenson will increase, already because he was a top-ten pick alone, but Jones also caught passes from Jeff Driskel and David Blough over his final five games rather than the uber-talented Matthew Stafford, during which he averaged 18 yards less per week. While Detroit used their second-round pick on another running back in D’Andre Swift (Georgia) and the offense will be built on the rushing attack, number 11 will frequently be the target off deep play-action and the Lions really only have three relevant receivers on that roster. So at this point, Jones is going as a low WR4 at best and I personally look at him as a nice flex option. Grabbing him a round later than a guy like Julian Edelman and using that other pick for like a high-upside rookie back or maybe a QB/TE you like in that range makes a lot of sense to me. I really like him as a fallback option if you go RB-heavy early on and you only have two dependable receivers on your roster at that point. Diontae Johnson ADP – 125.54 (WR43) I had several candidates to choose from for this final wide receiver spot, but in the end I went with the guy I think could be the best of the bunch and will receive the biggest boost in quarterback play. Diontae Johnson quietly hauled in 59 passes for 680 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie. That was despite the ball being thrown by Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges, who combined for just 186.3 passing yards per game (31st in the league) and tying for an NFL-low 4.5 air yards per completion. This year the Steelers get Ben Roethlisberger back under center, who led the league with 5129 passing yards in 2018 and even at 70-80 percent of himself should be a major upgrade over the two guys, who are clearly on the lower end of backup material even. I recently talked about Johnson’s skill-set more in detail and said he was be breakout candidate(LINK!!), because I saw start-stop quickness to win as a route-runner, how slippery he is to put a hand on that punt return ability he displays with the ball in his hands, with the feel for where defenders are coming from. He already made some huge plays as a rookie, often times catching the ball a few yards short of the sticks on shallow crossers and finding a way to convert for his team. Pittsburgh does have Juju Smith-Schuster as the primary target and I believe he will bounce back in a major way, James Washington came onto the scene last season and they also brought in another receiving weapon in flex tight-end Eric Ebron to go with another second-rounder receiver. However, I think Johnson could easily be one of the more productive number two guys for his respective team and at the very least a nice matchup play for your flex spot. Even if he somehow ended up repeating his output from a year ago, he was still the WR39 in PPR formats. If you take that as a baseline and think what Big Ben could do for him, just putting the ball out in front on some double-moves, that could be a great pick in the double-digit rounds, especially considering he led all receivers in separation, according to Next Gen Stats. Other options I like: Darius Slayton (ADP – 128.30; WR45) Mecole Hardman (ADP – 130.83; WR45) Jalen Reagor (ADP – 142.32; WR53) https://preview.redd.it/bk77o09eh5k51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2c8fdc08ec8366b7397bb45e4e942309c302291
Tight-ends:
Hayden Hurst ADP – 124.06 (TE13) If I could only choose to tell you about one player in this entire breakdown, this might be my guy. The Falcons just lost Austin Hooper to free agency, after he put up career-highs in targets (97), receptions (75), yards (787) and touchdowns (6). Because of that they spent a second-round pick to acquire what basically was the Ravens’ TE3. That alone tells you how much they wanted him, since they could have used that selection in the draft to address some other areas of need or grab another one in the draft, since only one was off the board at that point. Not saying he isn’t worth it, but that is rare compensation for a player who is third on a team’s depth chart and has barely cracked 500 receiving yards to go with three touchdowns through his first two years in the league. With that being said, Hurst is a former first-round pick and someone who Baltimore actually selected ahead of reigning league MVP Lamar Jackson. The speed, feel as a route-runner and physicality after the catch put the former South Carolina standout at the top of my tight-end board as well and I’m guessing that’s where the Falcons had him too, So based on pure talent, you can argue that he and Hooper are basically at the same level. What makes this guy so intriguing as a value pick for me is the offense he has landed in. Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter is famous for heavily involving the TE as a volume pass-catcher on stick and hook routes underneath, but also allowing them to work down the seams, where Matt Ryan had a lot of confidence, putting the ball to the back-shoulder of Hooper, who could shield it with his body and come down with the catch. When you look at the target rate of these two guys, the difference is enormous, as Hooper averaged 7.5 looks per game compared to only 2.4 for Hurst in his second season, while the latter averaged almost a full yard more per target. I love this guy as a low-end TE1 as my 13th pick or so of the draft. Jonnu Smith ADP – 147.77 (TE21) While I know it isn’t overly exciting, purely based on receiving yards, finishing 18th at your own position would make me think you get drafted higher than 21rd, but that is the most simplistic and least interesting case for Jonnu Smith. Let me talk you through a couple of other things instead. Of just 45 targets over the 2019 regular season, Smith caught 35 of them for 439 yards and three touchdowns. That left him tied for ninth among all players in the league at 10.0 yards per target and his 8.3 yards after the catch on average was the second-highest number among tight-ends, behind only George Kittle, who is obviously in a different stratosphere. While Tennessee is trying to run it back with a strong offensive line and a battering ram in Derrick Henry behind it, to go with shots off play-action, the Titans last season were 30th in plays run and they had the third-lowest percentage of pass plays (51.2). Those numbers are likely to go up at least a little bit with a more capable passer in Ryan Tannehill being under center for a full season and opposing teams likely selling out to stop the run. So that should result in more opportunities for Smith, who despite seeing a low target share, finished seventh in yards per route run among TEs last season. If you combine his targets with the ones of Delanie Walker until he got hurt, who is now out of the picture for Tennessee, that lands him at 75, which – while I know it doesn’t quite work that way – would result in 732 yards and five TDs if you simply multiply it with the numbers he actually put up on 45 looks. This guy is close to undrafted in a lot of leagues and with the way he started being used down the stretch – streaking downfield more and even taking some handoffs for big gains as a true running back – that gives you a high-upside TE2. Please take him over a second defense or whatever you may think of at that point of your drafts. Jack Doyle ADP – 148.51 (TE23) This is a name that I seem to have a weird fantasy crush on, but when you really look into it, it makes some sense. Doyle may not blow you away statistically, never having reached the 700-yard mark or surpassed five touchdowns in his seven-year career, but he is a very good all-around player, who is on the field all the time. We all remember when Eric Ebron went off for 750 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2018, but a lot of that was thanks to Doyle going down with an injury, since he had been on the field for 81.7 percent of the snaps as long as he was healthy, When he put up career-highs the year prior, he logged over 90 percent of the snaps, and while he wasn’t as effective last season as a full-time starter, he did average over 10 yards per catch and converted two thirds of his catches into first downs. That was with Ebron on the roster and being more of a downfield target, while Doyle was responsible for the dirty-work in the run game and even as a pass-protector. Now, I know the Colts signed Trey Burton this offseason, but he had just 84 receiving yards and no TDs over the one half of 2019 he was available for and should be much less likely to steal targets from what I think is the clear TE1 in this offense still. While yards per target, yards per route run and all those statistics are great to predict what can happen, the one relevant fantasy factor before anything else is how much a player is on the field and I don’t see why Doyle wouldn’t be out there for 80 percent of their offensive plays again. Indianapolis was in 12 personnel 26 percent of the snaps last season (sixth-highest in the league), so even if Burton re-emerges to some degree, this should hold true. And with Philip Rivers coming in, who checked it down to his backs more than any other QB in the league last season, I could see some of that share to going to Doyle leaking out late or curling up over the middle. Other options I like: Mike Gesicki (ADP – 137.23; TE15) Blake Jarwin (ADP – 150.07; TE23) Chris Herndon (ADP – 150.37; TE25) Defenses in the comments! If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/08/26/fantasy-diamonds-for-2020/ You can also listen to my breakdown on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXmJv442hvg&lc=UgxNqkHDOD0Sd5qIGVp4AaABAg&feature=em-comments
NFL odds, lines, spreads, picks, predictions for Week 16, 2020: Proven model loving Texans, Chargers SportsLine's computer model simulated every Week 16 NFL game 10,000 times with surprising results While on FootballLOCKS.com's closing week 16 NFL point spread page, you can also check out closing week 16 NFL lines (complete with NFL over/under lines), plus you can also revisit closing NFL odds from week 16, including NFL money line odds for those exploring pro football betting from all angles. FootballLOCKS.com provides weekly NFL football picks & predictions made using Backwards Odds NFL Handicapping of Las Vegas pro football lines & point spreads. Pool plays ATS and straight up. NFL expert picks each week. Betting lines, odds, the weekly point spread, power rankings, predictions, previews, handicapping strategy, standings projections, schedules and fantasy tips. Here is a live look at NFL Week 16 odds for what should be an exciting long holiday weekend. Week 16 started Friday as the Saints ripped the Vikings, 52-33. A triple-header on Saturday saw the Buccaneers shred the Lions, the 49ers upset the Cardinals, and the Dolphins pull out a miracle win over the Raiders. Compare NFL odds & betting lines Feb 10 to find the best Football moneyline, spread, and Over/Under totals odds from online sportsbooks. The opening lines for Week 16 of the NFL season have been posted; The Cleveland Browns are 10.5-point road favorites over the New York Jets; The over/under is 55.5 points on the Sunday Night Football Game between the Tennessee Titans and Packers in Green Bay NFL Week 16 odds, picks: Colts continue to send Steelers in a downward spiral, Dolphins top Raiders Here's a look at some of the better wagers heading into Week 16 In our picks and predictions against the spread for Week 16 of the 2020 NFL season, the Seahawks win the NFC West with their win over the Rams and the Eagles finish off the Cowboys in the NFC East. The Home Of Free Expert NFL Picks For The 2020/21 Season. Even though there are just 17 weeks in the regular season with a maximum of 16 games per week, NFL betting is easily the most popular North American sports wager. 2020 NFL Week 16 Predictions from the Establish the Pass podcast, including upsets, betting locks, games of the week (the Saints and Bills should easily cover their touchdown spreads
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